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URLhttps://www.usip.org/blog/2018/05/whats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea
Last Crawled2025-11-07 21:48:04 (5 months ago)
First Indexed2018-05-24 21:52:00 (7 years ago)
HTTP Status Code200
Meta TitleWhat’s Next for Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea? | United States Institute of Peace
Meta DescriptionAssuming that both President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un were sincere about meeting in Singapore on June 12, it seems the summit’s cancellation was caused by poor diplomacy and messaging, like a bad game of telephone.
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Assuming that both President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un were sincere about meeting in Singapore on June 12, it seems the summit’s cancellation was caused by poor diplomacy and messaging, like a bad game of telephone. What started out as an attempt to express the White House’s preference for a quick denuclearization process, like what happened in Libya, ended up being heard by North Korea as President Trump and Vice President Pence threatening to decimate North Korea if it doesn’t denuclearize. Unartful U.S. messaging combined with North Korea’s thin skin has been the hallmark of past bilateral diplomatic failures. President Donald Trump walks back into the Oval Office after remarking on the cancellation of the North Korea summit. (Doug Mills/The New York Times) Another factor here is that both sides were jockeying for leverage going into the summit. North Korea did not want to be perceived as being too eager or having been coerced into the summit by U.S. pressure and threats. Similarly, President Trump did not want to look desperate for a meeting with Kim Jong Un, so he appeared to show indifference about the summit happening, and ultimately cancelled it. White House officials were also concerned that North Korea was being unresponsive to summit planning requests, including not showing up for a logistics planning meeting. My sense is that North Korea is probably initially stunned by President Trump’s move, but then will recognize the similarities with its own tactics in President Trump’s gamesmanship and brinkmanship. The strong incentives for holding the summit still remain for both sides—so it is not surprising that President Trump left open the possibility for the meeting to still happen. His letter to Kim Jong Un was very polite and complimentary, which may help the North Korean leader save face. I would not close the door completely on the summit taking place. However, North Korea will not want to appear like it is groveling for a summit, so it will take some diplomatic finessing to get the two leaders together. What this means going forward depends on each country’s interpretation of who has the leverage. The White House believes that its maximum pressure campaign was the main factor in getting North Korea to engage, so it will likely wait for the pressure to further intensify on North Korea. On the other hand, the North Korean regimewhile struggling under sanctions—can still trudge along without engaging with the United States, especially if countries like China are easing up on sanctions enforcement. The risk for both sides standing coolly is that the momentum for a historic diplomatic process, stemming from the successful Winter Olympics, will dissipate quickly. Ultimately, like after any playground scuffle, a resumption of talks will require one side to be the “bigger person” or an intermediary—like South Korea, China, or both—to step in to allow both sides to save face.
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[Skip to main content](https://www.usip.org/blog/2018/05/whats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea#main-content) [Menu](https://www.usip.org/blog/2018/05/whats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea) # [United States Institute of Peace](https://www.usip.org/) - [About USIP](https://www.usip.org/about) */* - [Countries & Regions](https://www.usip.org/regions-countries) */* - [Research & Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis) */* - [Gandhi-King Global Academy](https://www.usip.org/academy/gandhi-king-global-academy) Search [Close](https://www.usip.org/blog/2018/05/whats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea) # [United States Institute of Peace](https://www.usip.org/) [About USIP](https://www.usip.org/about) [Countries & Regions](https://www.usip.org/regions-countries) [Research & Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis) [Gandhi-King Global Academy](https://www.usip.org/academy/gandhi-king-global-academy) [Connect](https://www.usip.org/connect) [Press](https://www.usip.org/press) [Projects](https://www.usip.org/projects) [The Olive Branch Blog](https://www.usip.org/blog) ## We provide analysis, education, and resources to those working for peace around the world. [More About USIP](https://www.usip.org/about) # [United States Institute of Peace](https://www.usip.org/) Close Search for experts, projects, publications, courses, and more. ## There are no contents that meet the filtering criteria. [Home](https://www.usip.org/) ▶ [Blog](https://www.usip.org/blog) # What’s Next for Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea? Even after the Trump administration’s decision to cancel the summit, the door remains open for negotiations. Thursday, May 24, 2018 */* **By:** Frank Aum [Share This](https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usip.org%2Fblog%2F2018%2F05%2Fwhats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea&title=What%E2%80%99s%20Next%20for%20Nuclear%20Negotiations%20with%20North%20Korea%3F) [Print the Page](https://www.usip.org/blog/2018/05/whats-next-nuclear-negotiations-north-korea) [![The Olive Branch](https://www.usip.org/themes/custom/usip/assets/img/brand/logo_olive_branch_white.svg)](https://www.usip.org/blog) Assuming that both President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un were sincere about meeting in Singapore on June 12, it seems the summit’s cancellation was caused by poor diplomacy and messaging, like a bad game of telephone. What started out as an attempt to express the White House’s preference for a quick denuclearization process, like what happened in Libya, ended up being heard by North Korea as President Trump and Vice President Pence threatening to decimate North Korea if it doesn’t denuclearize. Unartful U.S. messaging combined with North Korea’s thin skin has been the hallmark of past bilateral diplomatic failures. ![President Donald Trump walks back into the Oval Office after remarking on the cancellation of the North Korea summit. (Doug Mills/The New York Times) ](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/styles/image_with_caption/public/2018-05/20180524-trump_nkorea_12-blog.jpg?itok=DoiRLIhW) President Donald Trump walks back into the Oval Office after remarking on the cancellation of the North Korea summit. (Doug Mills/The New York Times) Another factor here is that both sides were jockeying for leverage going into the summit. North Korea did not want to be perceived as being too eager or having been coerced into the summit by U.S. pressure and threats. Similarly, President Trump did not want to look desperate for a meeting with Kim Jong Un, so he appeared to show indifference about the summit happening, and ultimately cancelled it. White House officials were also concerned that North Korea was being unresponsive to summit planning requests, including not showing up for a logistics planning meeting. My sense is that North Korea is probably initially stunned by President Trump’s move, but then will recognize the similarities with its own tactics in President Trump’s gamesmanship and brinkmanship. The strong incentives for holding the summit still remain for both sides—so it is not surprising that President Trump left open the possibility for the meeting to still happen. His letter to Kim Jong Un was very polite and complimentary, which may help the North Korean leader save face. I would not close the door completely on the summit taking place. However, North Korea will not want to appear like it is groveling for a summit, so it will take some diplomatic finessing to get the two leaders together. What this means going forward depends on each country’s interpretation of who has the leverage. The White House believes that its maximum pressure campaign was the main factor in getting North Korea to engage, so it will likely wait for the pressure to further intensify on North Korea. On the other hand, the North Korean regime[—]()while struggling under sanctions—can still trudge along without engaging with the United States, especially if countries like China are easing up on sanctions enforcement. The risk for both sides standing coolly is that the momentum for a historic diplomatic process, stemming from the successful Winter Olympics, will dissipate quickly. Ultimately, like after any playground scuffle, a resumption of talks will require one side to be the “bigger person” or an intermediary—like South Korea, China, or both—to step in to allow both sides to save face. ### Countries [![North Korea](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2016-12/north-korea.svg) North Korea](https://www.usip.org/regions/asia/north-korea) ### Stay Informed USIP has a variety of newsletters and announcements with the latest analysis, publications and events. [Sign up\!](https://www.usip.org/newsletter-signup) ## Related Research & Analysis [![Pursuing Stable Coexistence: A Reorientation of U.S. Policy Toward North Korea](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/styles/summary_image/public/2025-06/20250610-koreas_border_crossing_1-nyt-ac.jpg?itok=dyzOJdkg)](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/06/pursuing-stable-coexistence-reorientation-us-policy-toward-north-korea) ### [Pursuing Stable Coexistence: A Reorientation of U.S. Policy Toward North Korea](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/06/pursuing-stable-coexistence-reorientation-us-policy-toward-north-korea) Tuesday, June 10, 2025 **By:** Frank Aum; Ankit Panda It is now clear that applying pressure does not lead to North Korean restraint; rather, it fuels North Korean provocations. The United States and its allies should instead seek stable coexistence with Pyongyang as an overarching goal. **Type:** [Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis?publication_type%5B0%5D=12#filters) [![The Current Situation in North Korea](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/styles/summary_image/public/2023-03/the-current-situation-in-north-korea-cover.jpg?itok=Wgc5YiW4)](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/02/current-situation-north-korea) ### [The Current Situation in North Korea](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/02/current-situation-north-korea) Thursday, February 13, 2025 In 2018, reinvigorated diplomacy and reduced tensions generated hope for a more secure and peaceful Korean Peninsula. At a historic summit in Singapore in June, the United States and North Korea committed to establish “new U.S.-DPRK relations” while North Korea also committed to work toward the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” However, the two countries disagreed about what each side should concede and when, leading to a diplomatic failure at a subsequent summit in Hanoi in February 2019. Today, the United States and North Korea coexist in an antagonistic, high-risk stalemate. **Type:** [Fact Sheet](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis?publication_type%5B0%5D=6#filters) [![The Risks of South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Under a Troubled Democracy](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/styles/summary_image/public/2025-02/20250210_skorea-politics-11_nyt_ac.jpg?itok=e0Rq_8pJ)](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/02/risks-south-koreas-nuclear-armament-under-troubled-democracy) ### [The Risks of South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Under a Troubled Democracy](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/02/risks-south-koreas-nuclear-armament-under-troubled-democracy) Monday, February 10, 2025 **By:** Lami Kim On President Donald Trump’s first day in office, he referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power.” Just a few months before, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said he would “exponentially” increase his country’s nuclear weapons arsenal, which he followed by testing a new intercontinental ballistic missile and a new hypersonic missile. Additionally, there are concerns that Moscow may transfer sensitive military technologies to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang supplying weaponry and troops for Russia’s war on Ukraine. These developments inject new urgency into a key question that will have major ramifications for stability and security on the Korean Peninsula and beyond: Should South Korea go nuclear? **Type:** [Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis?publication_type%5B0%5D=12#filters) [![To Build Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea, Focus on Ordinary North Koreans](https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/styles/summary_image/public/2025-01/20250129_nkorea-desperation-3_nyt_ac.jpg?itok=xRY291x4)](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/01/build-peaceful-coexistence-north-korea-focus-ordinary-north-koreans) ### [To Build Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea, Focus on Ordinary North Koreans](https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/01/build-peaceful-coexistence-north-korea-focus-ordinary-north-koreans) Wednesday, January 29, 2025 **By:** Dr. Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings For any peaceful coexistence between the United States and North Korea to take root, there will need to be multiple levels of dialogue, engagement and cooperation. Given the historic distrust between the two countries, this is easier said than done. But “people-focused” engagement — that is, engagement that centers North Korean people’s wellbeing — could allow Americans to establish working relationships with North Korean counterparts while also demonstrating U.S. commitment to improving the lives of ordinary North Koreans. **Type:** [Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis?publication_type%5B0%5D=12#filters) [View All Research & Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis) ### Latest News #### [What the New Houthi Terrorist Designation Means for Yemen - Time](https://time.com/7265418/houthi-terrorist-fto-status-us-relations-yemen/) Friday, March 7, 2025 #### [Crisis in the Sahel Can Muslim extremist violence in the region be stopped? - CQ Researcher](https://cqpress.sagepub.com/cqresearcher/report/cqpromo/zpjNKw/crisis-in-the-sahel-cqresrre20250228) Friday, February 28, 2025 #### ['Contemplated suicide': Ethiopians recount horror of SE Asia scam centres - AFP](https://www.yahoo.com/news/contemplated-suicide-ethiopians-recount-horror-020421352.html?guccounter=1) Thursday, February 27, 2025 #### [Military, police, MILF join forces in friendly basketball match - GMA News](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/937258/military-police-milf-join-forces-for-basketball-match/story/) Monday, February 24, 2025 [View All News](https://www.usip.org/press) # [United Status Instute of Peace](https://www.usip.org/) 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 Tel: +1.202.457.1700 - [About USIP](https://www.usip.org/about) - [Countries & Regions](https://www.usip.org/regions-countries) - [Research & Analysis](https://www.usip.org/research-analysis) - [Gandhi-King Global Academy](https://www.usip.org/academy/gandhi-king-global-academy) [Connect](https://www.usip.org/connect) [Press](https://www.usip.org/press) [Projects](https://www.usip.org/projects) [The Olive Branch Blog](https://www.usip.org/blog) - [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/usinstituteofpeace "usinstituteofpeace") - [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/usipeace/ "@usipeace") - [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/united-states-institute-of-peace "United States Institute of Peace") - [Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/user/usinstituteofpeace "usinstituteofpeace") The United States Institute of Peace [Legal and Privacy Information](https://www.usip.org/legal/privacy) \| [FOIA Inquiries](https://www.usip.org/freedom-information-act-foia) ✓ Thanks for sharing\! 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