🕷️ Crawler Inspector

URL Lookup

Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 120 (from laksa011)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa120.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3\/fulltext","crawl_time":1769505627,"first_indexed_time":1642642198,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,thelancet!www,\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3\/fulltext s443","src_root_hash":"16469721507011418920","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near - The Lancet","meta_descriptions":[],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"The world is experiencing a huge wave of infection with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Estimates based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nsuggest that on around Jan 17, 2022 there were 125 million omicron infections a day in the world, which is more than ten times the peak of the delta wave in April, 2021.\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nThe omicron wave is inexorably reaching every continent with only a few countries in eastern Europe, North Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania yet to start their wave of this SARS-CoV-2 variant.\n1,2\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\n2.\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nThe unprecedented level of infection suggests that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with omicron between the end of November, 2021 and the end of March, 2022.\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nAlthough IHME models suggest that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased by more than 30 times from the end of November, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022, reported COVID-19 cases in this period have only increased by six times.\n1,2\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\n2.\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nBecause the proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or mild has increased compared with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants,\n3,4\n3.\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\nGlobal percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis\nJAMA Netw Open.\n2021;\n4\n, e2137257\n4.\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\nHigh rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron\nMedRxiv.\n2022;\n(preprint).\nthe global infection-detection rate has declined globally from 20% to 5%.\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nUnderstanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic.\n3\n3.\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\nGlobal percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis\nJAMA Netw Open.\n2021;\n4\n, e2137257\nEvidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms.\n4\n4.\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\nHigh rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron\nMedRxiv.\n2022;\n(preprint).\nAssuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey estimated a point prevalence of PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection of 6·85% for England on Jan 6, 2022.\n5\n5.\nOffice for National Statistics\nCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK\nHospital admission prescreening of individuals without COVID-19 symptoms in the University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, WA, USA, did not exceed 2% throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but exceeded 10% in the week of Jan 10, 2022 (Murray CJL, unpublished). In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks.\n2\n2.\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nThe proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa.\n6,7\n6.\nUlloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al.\nEarly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada\nMedRxiv.\n2022;\n(preprint).\n7.\nMaslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al.\nCharacteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves\nJAMA.\n2021;\nDespite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models.\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nIn countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals. Given population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of more than 10%, such as reported by the ONS infection survey in London, England,\n5\n5.\nOffice for National Statistics\nCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK\nlarge numbers of health workers are testing positive and are required to quarantine, which puts a double pressure on hospitals. Countries will need to prioritise support for health systems in the next 4–6 weeks. Data from Greece, however, hold out hope that severe COVID-19 outcomes from the omicron wave will be limited; from Dec 21, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022 COVID-19 cases increased nearly 10 times but hospital intubations among COVID-19 hospital patients have remained the same as in December.\n8\n8.\nGreek Government\nCOVID-19 daily overview\nSurprisingly, IHME models\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nsuggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.\n1,2\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\n2.\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nAs of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA.\n2\n2.\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nIt is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022.\n1\n1.\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nThe latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.\nA question remains in relation to the countries pursuing zero COVID-19 strategies, such as China and New Zealand. China has local omicron transmission in January, 2022.\n9,10\n9.\nDavidson, H ∙ Ni, V\nChina battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics\nThe Guardian.\nJan 10, 2022;\n10.\nQin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A\nOmicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin\nThe New York Times.\nJan 15, 2022;\nGiven the high transmissibility of omicron, it seems unlikely that China or New Zealand will be able to permanently exclude the omicron wave. For zero COVID-19 countries, the question will be one of timing. Later omicron surges will allow further progress on increasing vaccination coverage and better understanding of the impact of the omicron variant in a fairly immunologically naive population.\nBy March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission.\nCopyright © 2022 MF3d\/Getty Images\nI use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal efforts over the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months.\nThe impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day.\n11\n11.\nUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\nDisease burden of flu\nThe era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not.\nCompeting Interests\nI declare no competing interests.\nReferences\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\nCOVID-19 projections\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\nCOVID-19 dashboard\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\nGlobal percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis\nJAMA Netw Open.\n2021;\n4\n, e2137257\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\nHigh rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron\nMedRxiv.\n2022;\n(preprint).\nOffice for National Statistics\nCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK\nUlloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al.\nEarly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada\nMedRxiv.\n2022;\n(preprint).\nMaslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al.\nCharacteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves\nJAMA.\n2021;\nGreek Government\nCOVID-19 daily overview\nDavidson, H ∙ Ni, V\nChina battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics\nThe Guardian.\nJan 10, 2022;\nQin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A\nOmicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin\nThe New York Times.\nJan 15, 2022;\nUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\nDisease burden of flu","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to Main Content](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#page-body-id \"Skip to Main Content\") [Skip to Main Menu](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#mega-menu-nav \"Skip to Main Menu\")\n\n## Login to your account\nDon’t have an account?\n\n[Create a Free Account](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/registration?redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext)\n\nIf you don't remember your password, you can reset it by entering your email address and clicking the Reset Password button. You will then receive an email that contains a secure link for resetting your password\n\nIf the address matches a valid account an email will be sent to \\_\\_email\\_\\_ with instructions for resetting your password\n\n[Cancel](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext \"Close reset password popup\")\n\nADVERTISEMENT\n\nSCROLL TO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT\n\nOpen GPT Console\n\nOpen Oracle Keywords\n\nRefresh Values\n\n| Property | Value |\n|---|---|\n| Status |   |\n| Version |   |\n| Ad File |   |\n| Disable Ads Flag |   |\n| Environment |   |\n| Moat Init |   |\n| Moat Ready |   |\n| Contextual Ready |   |\n| Contextual URL |   |\n| Contextual Initial Segments |   |\n| Contextual Used Segments |   |\n| AdUnit |   |\n| SubAdUnit |   |\n| Custom Targeting |   |\n| Ad Events |   |\n| Invalid Ad Sizes |   |\n\n![Advertisement](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/templates\/jsp\/_style2\/_marlin\/images\/bg_adHoriz.gif)\n\n[![The Lancet Journal](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pb-assets\/ux3\/logos\/lancet\/lancet-1665147351037.svg)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/home \"The Lancet Journal\")\n\n- [Submit Article](https:\/\/www.editorialmanager.com\/thelancet \"Submit Article\")\n- Log in\n  \n  - [Log in](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=login&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Log in to Lancet.com\")\n  - [Get Institutional Access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Institutional access\")\n- [Register](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=registration&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Register a username and password for free\")\n- open links dialog\n  close links dialog\n  \n  - [Submit Article](https:\/\/www.editorialmanager.com\/thelancet \"Submit Article\")\n  - [Log in](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=login&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Log in to Lancet.com\")\n  - [Get Institutional Access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Institutional access\")\n  - [Register](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=registration&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext \"Register a username and password for free\")\n\nAccess provided by\n\nMain menu\n\n- This journal\n  - #### Read\n    - [Online first](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/onlinefirst)\n    - [Current issue](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/issue\/current)\n    - [All issues](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/issues)\n    - [Special issues](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/specialIssue)\n    - [Series](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/series-do?startPage=&JournalFacetField=The%20Lancet)\n    - [Commissions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/commissions-do?startPage=&JournalFacetField=The%20Lancet)\n  - #### About\n    - [About the journal](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/lancet\/about)\n    - [Subscribe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe)\n    - [Request institutional access External Link](https:\/\/info.thelancet.com\/request-access)\n    - [Alerts](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPreferences?menuTab=Alerts)\n  - #### Multimedia\n    - [Podcasts](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/multimedia\/podcasts\/in-conversation-with\/lancet)\n- Journals\n  - #### Journals\n    - [The Lancet](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanchi\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/landia\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Digital Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/landig\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langas\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Global Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langlo\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Haematology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhae\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Healthy Longevity](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhl\/home)\n    - [The Lancet HIV](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhiv\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Infectious Diseases](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laninf\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Microbe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanmic\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Neurology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laneur\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology, & Women's Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanogw\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Oncology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanonc\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Planetary Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanplh\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Primary Care](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanprc\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Psychiatry](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpsy\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Public Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpub\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Respiratory Medicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanres\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Rheumatology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanrhe\/home)\n  - #### Regional Health Journals\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health - Africa](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/regional-health\/africa)\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health - Americas](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanam\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health - Europe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanepe\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lansea\/home)\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanwpc\/home)\n  - #### Discovery Science Journals\n    - [eBioMedicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/ebiom\/home)\n    - [eClinicalMedicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/eclinm\/home)\n- Publish\n  - #### Publish\n    - [Publish with The Lancet Group](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/for-authors)\n    - [Submit your manuscript](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/submit)\n  - #### Resources for authors\n    - [Submission guidelines](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/submission-guidelines)\n    - [Content types](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/what-we-publish)\n    - [Editorial policies](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/editorial-policies)\n    - [Pathways to publication](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pathways-to-publication)\n    - [Journey of a paper](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journey-paper)\n  - #### Publishing with us\n    - [Why publish with us?](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/why-publish)\n    - [Open access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/open-access)\n    - [Our journals](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/which-journal)\n    - [Peer review](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/peer-review)\n    - [Journal impact metrics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journal-impact-metrics)\n    - [Preprints with The Lancet](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/preprints)\n- Clinical\n  - #### Clinical\n    - [Clinical resources](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical)\n    - [Core clinical topics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/core-clinical-topics)\n    - [Reviews](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/reviews)\n    - [Clinical cases](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/clinical-cases)\n    - [Commissions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197)\n    - [Series](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197)\n  - #### Specialty collections\n    - [Artificial intelligence](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/artificial-intelligence)\n    - [Cardiology & Vascular Medicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/cardiology-vascular-medicine)\n    - [Diabetes & Endocrinology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/endocrinology)\n    - [Infectious diseases](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/infectious-diseases)\n    - [Neurology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/neurology)\n    - [Oncology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections\/oncology)\n    - [View all specialty collections](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections)\n- Global health\n  - #### Global health\n    - [Global health overview](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/global-health)\n    - [Commissions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198)\n    - [Series](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198)\n    - [Global burden of disease](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/gbd)\n    - [Climate countdown](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/countdown-health-climate)\n  - #### Collections\n    - [COVID-19](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/doSearch?text1=COVID-19+OR+coronavirus+OR+SARS-CoV-2+OR+2019-nCoV&field1=Title&startPage=&P)\n    - [Disease Control Priorities (DCP-3)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/doSearch?type=quicksearch&text1=%22Disease+Control+Priorities%22&field1=Title)\n    - [Ebola](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/doSearch?text1=Ebola&field1=Title&startPage=&P)\n    - [Mpox](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/mpox)\n    - [Ukraine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/doSearch?text1=Ukraine+OR+Ukrainian&field1=Title&startPage=&P)\n    - [Zika](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/doSearch?text1=Zika&field1=Title&startPage=&P)\n- Multimedia\n  - [Multimedia overview](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/multimedia)\n  - [Podcasts](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/multimedia\/podcasts)\n  - [Videos](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/video-do)\n  - [Infographics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/infographics-do)\n- Events\n  - [The Lancet Group's global events](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/events)\n  - [Conferences](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/events\/conferences)\n  - [The Lancet Webinars](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/webinars)\n  - [200 years of The Lancet](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/lancet-200)\n- About\n  - #### The Lancet Group\n    - [About The Lancet Group](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/about-us)\n    - [Health equity & inclusion](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/health-equity-and-inclusion)\n    - [The Lancet Regional Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/regional-health)\n    - [The Lancet Discovery Science](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/discovery-science)\n  - #### Access\n    - [Open access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/open-access)\n    - [Access our content](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/access-content)\n    - [Request institutional access External Link](https:\/\/info.thelancet.com\/request-access)\n    - [Research4Life](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/research4life)\n    - [Subscribe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/subscribe)\n  - #### Connect\n    - [Contact us](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/contact-us)\n    - [Our global team](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/lancet-people)\n    - [Customer service External Link](https:\/\/service.elsevier.com\/app\/overview\/lancet\/)\n    - [Press office](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/information-for-press)\n    - [Commercial sales](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/for-advertisers)\n    - [Lancet alerts External Link](https:\/\/info.thelancet.com\/alerts)\n\nComment[Volume 399, Issue 10323](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/issue\/vol399no10323\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$X0004-4)p417-419January 29, 2022\n\nDownload Full Issue\n\nDownload started\n\n[Ok](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n# COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near\n[Christopher J L Murray](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\nChristopher J L Murray\n\nCorrespondence\n\n[cjlm@uw.edu](mailto:cjlm@uw.edu \"Send email to Christopher J L Murray\")\n\nAffiliations\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98105, USA\n\n[Search for articles by this author](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/authored-by\/Murray\/Christopher+J+L)\n\n[cjlm@uw.edu](mailto:cjlm@uw.edu \"Send email to Christopher J L Murray\")\n\nAffiliations & Notes\n\nArticle Info\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98105, USA\n\nPublication History:\n\nPublished January 19, 2022\n\nDOI: [10\\.1016\/S0140-6736(22)00100-3 External Link](https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3)Also available on [ScienceDirect External Link](https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0140673622001003)\n\nCopyright: © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.\n\n[![Cover Image - The Lancet, Volume 399, Issue 10323](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/asset\/4528ce43-9944-4c38-a33d-53668d1ac6ac\/cov200h.gif)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/issue\/vol399no10323\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$X0004-4)\n\n[Download PDFDownload PDF](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 \"Standard PDF (opens in a new tab)\")\n\nOutline\n\nOutline\n\n- [Competing Interests](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#conflict)\n- [References](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#references)\n- [Article metrics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#core-collateral-metrics)\n\nShare\n\n#### Share\nShare on\n\n- [Email](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#email \"Email\")\n- [X](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#twitter \"formerly known as Twitter\")\n- [Facebook](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#facebook \"Facebook\")\n- [LinkedIn](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#linkedin \"LinkedIn\")\n- [Sina Weibo](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#sina_weibo \"Sina Weibo\")\n- [Mendeley](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#mendeley \"Mendeley\")\n- [Bluesky](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#bluesky \"Bluesky\")\n\n[Add to my reading list](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/personalize\/addFavoritePublication?doi=10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3)\n\nMore\n\nMore\n\n- [Download PDFDownload PDF](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 \"Standard PDF (opens in a new tab)\")\n- [Cite](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showCitFormats?doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 \"Cite\")\n- Share\n  \n  #### Share\n  Share on\n  \n  - [Email](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#email \"Email\")\n  - [X](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#twitter \"formerly known as Twitter\")\n  - [Facebook](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#facebook \"Facebook\")\n  - [LinkedIn](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#linkedin \"LinkedIn\")\n  - [Sina Weibo](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#sina_weibo \"Sina Weibo\")\n  - [Mendeley](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#mendeley \"Mendeley\")\n  - [Bluesky](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/#bluesky \"Bluesky\")\n  \n  [Add to my reading list](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/personalize\/addFavoritePublication?doi=10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3)\n- [Set Alert](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/addCitationAlert?doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 \"Set Alert\")\n- [Get Rights](https:\/\/s100.copyright.com\/AppDispatchServlet?publisherName=ELS&contentID=S0140673622001003&orderBeanReset=true&orderSource=Phoenix \"Get Rights\")\n- [Reprints](https:\/\/www.contentednet.com\/salesforce-form\/?pii=S0140673622001003&issn=01406736&source=jbs \"Reprints\")\n\nDownload Full Issue\n\nDownload started\n\n[Ok](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n[Previous article](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00096-4\/fulltext)[Next article](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00003-4\/fulltext)\n\nShow Outline\n\nHide Outline\n\n- [Competing Interests](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#conflict)\n- [References](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#references)\n- [Article metrics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#core-collateral-metrics)\n\nThe world is experiencing a huge wave of infection with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Estimates based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nsuggest that on around Jan 17, 2022 there were 125 million omicron infections a day in the world, which is more than ten times the peak of the delta wave in April, 2021.\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nThe omicron wave is inexorably reaching every continent with only a few countries in eastern Europe, North Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania yet to start their wave of this SARS-CoV-2 variant.\n\n[1,2](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\n2\\.\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\nThe unprecedented level of infection suggests that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with omicron between the end of November, 2021 and the end of March, 2022.\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nAlthough IHME models suggest that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased by more than 30 times from the end of November, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022, reported COVID-19 cases in this period have only increased by six times.\n\n[1,2](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\n2\\.\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\nBecause the proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or mild has increased compared with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants,\n\n[3,4](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n3\\.\n\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\n\n**Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis**\n\n*JAMA Netw Open.* 2021; **4**, e2137257\n\n[Scopus (4)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/servlet\/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056)\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257)\n\n4\\.\n\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\n\n**High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron**\n\n*MedRxiv.* 2022;\n\npublished online Jan 14. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.12.20.21268130>\n\n(preprint).\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.)\n\nthe global infection-detection rate has declined globally from 20% to 5%.\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nUnderstanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic.\n\n[3](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n3\\.\n\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\n\n**Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis**\n\n*JAMA Netw Open.* 2021; **4**, e2137257\n\n[Scopus (4)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/servlet\/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056)\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257)\n\nEvidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms.\n\n[4](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n4\\.\n\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\n\n**High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron**\n\n*MedRxiv.* 2022;\n\npublished online Jan 14. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.12.20.21268130>\n\n(preprint).\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.)\n\nAssuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey estimated a point prevalence of PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection of 6·85% for England on Jan 6, 2022.\n\n[5](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n5\\.\n\nOffice for National Statistics\n\n**Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK**\n\n<https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/bulletins\/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot\/14january2022>\n\nDate: 14 January 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022)\n\nHospital admission prescreening of individuals without COVID-19 symptoms in the University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, WA, USA, did not exceed 2% throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but exceeded 10% in the week of Jan 10, 2022 (Murray CJL, unpublished). In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks.\n\n[2](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n2\\.\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\nThe proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa.\n\n[6,7](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n6\\.\n\nUlloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al.\n\n**Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada**\n\n*MedRxiv.* 2022;\n\npublished online Jan 2. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.12.24.21268382>\n\n(preprint).\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=AUlloaSBuchanNDanemanKBrownEarly+estimates+of+SARS-CoV-2+Omicron+variant+severity+based+on+a+matched+cohort+study%2C+Ontario+CanadaMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+2.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.24.21268382%28preprint%29.)\n\n7\\.\n\nMaslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al.\n\n**Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves**\n\n*JAMA.* 2021;\n\npublished online Dec 30. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jama.2021.24868>\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=CMasloRFriedlandMToubkinCharacteristics+and+outcomes+of+hospitalizaed+patients+in+South+Africa+during+the+COVID-19+Omicron+wave+compared+with+previous+wavesJAMA2021published+online+Dec+30.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1001%2Fjama.2021.24868)\n\nDespite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models.\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nIn countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals. Given population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of more than 10%, such as reported by the ONS infection survey in London, England,\n\n[5](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n5\\.\n\nOffice for National Statistics\n\n**Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK**\n\n<https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/bulletins\/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot\/14january2022>\n\nDate: 14 January 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022)\n\nlarge numbers of health workers are testing positive and are required to quarantine, which puts a double pressure on hospitals. Countries will need to prioritise support for health systems in the next 4–6 weeks. Data from Greece, however, hold out hope that severe COVID-19 outcomes from the omicron wave will be limited; from Dec 21, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022 COVID-19 cases increased nearly 10 times but hospital intubations among COVID-19 hospital patients have remained the same as in December.\n\n[8](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n8\\.\n\nGreek Government\n\n**COVID-19 daily overview**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.gov.gr\/covid19-live-analytics\/>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Greek+GovernmentCOVID-19+daily+overviewhttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.gov.gr%2Fcovid19-live-analytics%2F2022)\n\nSurprisingly, IHME models\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nsuggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.\n\n[1,2](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\n2\\.\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\nAs of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA.\n\n[2](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n2\\.\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\nIt is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022.\n\n[1](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n1\\.\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\nThe latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.\n\nA question remains in relation to the countries pursuing zero COVID-19 strategies, such as China and New Zealand. China has local omicron transmission in January, 2022.\n\n[9,10](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n9\\.\n\nDavidson, H ∙ Ni, V\n\n**China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics**\n\n*The Guardian.* Jan 10, 2022;\n\n<https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/jan\/10\/china-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics>\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=HDavidsonVNiChina+battles+Omicron+outbreak+weeks+before+Winter+OlympicsThe+GuardianJan+10%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2022%2Fjan%2F10%2Fchina-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics)\n\n10\\.\n\nQin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A\n\n**Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin**\n\n*The New York Times.* Jan 15, 2022;\n\n<https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/16\/world\/asia\/omicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html>\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=AQinAChang+ChienOmicron+reaches+Beijing%2C+three+weeks+before+the+Olympics+beginThe+New+York+TimesJan+15%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F01%2F16%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fomicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html)\n\nGiven the high transmissibility of omicron, it seems unlikely that China or New Zealand will be able to permanently exclude the omicron wave. For zero COVID-19 countries, the question will be one of timing. Later omicron surges will allow further progress on increasing vaccination coverage and better understanding of the impact of the omicron variant in a fairly immunologically naive population.\n\nBy March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission.\n\n[![Figure f10](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/asset\/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd\/main.assets\/fx1.jpg)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/asset\/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd\/main.assets\/fx1.jpg \"View full size image in a new tab\")\n\nFigure viewer\n\nCopyright © 2022 MF3d\/Getty Images\n\nI use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal efforts over the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months.\n\nThe impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day.\n\n[11](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n11\\.\n\nUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\n\n**Disease burden of flu**\n\n<https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/about\/burden\/index.html>\n\nDate: Jan 7, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=US+Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+PreventionDisease+burden+of+fluhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fburden%2Findex.htmlJan+7%2C+2022)\n\nThe era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not.\n\nFor **data and R code on GitHub** see <https:\/\/github.com\/davidlvb\/Crick-UCLH-Legacy-Omicron-2021-12]>\n\n## Competing Interests\nI declare no competing interests.\n\n## References\n[1\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref10-1 \"View in article\")\n\nInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation\n\n**COVID-19 projections**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend>\n\nDate: Jan 17, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022)\n\n[2\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref20-1 \"View in article\")\n\nJohns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center\n\n**COVID-19 dashboard**\n\n<https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022)\n\n[3\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref40-1 \"View in article\")\n\nMa, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al.\n\n**Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis**\n\n*JAMA Netw Open.* 2021; **4**, e2137257\n\n[Scopus (4)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/servlet\/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056)\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257)\n\n[4\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref40-1 \"View in article\")\n\nGarrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al.\n\n**High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron**\n\n*MedRxiv.* 2022;\n\npublished online Jan 14. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.12.20.21268130>\n\n(preprint).\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.)\n\n[5\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref50-1 \"View in article\")\n\nOffice for National Statistics\n\n**Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK**\n\n<https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/bulletins\/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot\/14january2022>\n\nDate: 14 January 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022)\n\n[6\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref70 \"View in article\")\n\nUlloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al.\n\n**Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada**\n\n*MedRxiv.* 2022;\n\npublished online Jan 2. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.12.24.21268382>\n\n(preprint).\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=AUlloaSBuchanNDanemanKBrownEarly+estimates+of+SARS-CoV-2+Omicron+variant+severity+based+on+a+matched+cohort+study%2C+Ontario+CanadaMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+2.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.24.21268382%28preprint%29.)\n\n[7\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref70 \"View in article\")\n\nMaslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al.\n\n**Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves**\n\n*JAMA.* 2021;\n\npublished online Dec 30. <https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jama.2021.24868>\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=CMasloRFriedlandMToubkinCharacteristics+and+outcomes+of+hospitalizaed+patients+in+South+Africa+during+the+COVID-19+Omicron+wave+compared+with+previous+wavesJAMA2021published+online+Dec+30.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1001%2Fjama.2021.24868)\n\n[8\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref80 \"View in article\")\n\nGreek Government\n\n**COVID-19 daily overview**\n\n<https:\/\/covid19.gov.gr\/covid19-live-analytics\/>\n\nDate: 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=Greek+GovernmentCOVID-19+daily+overviewhttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.gov.gr%2Fcovid19-live-analytics%2F2022)\n\n[9\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref100 \"View in article\")\n\nDavidson, H ∙ Ni, V\n\n**China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics**\n\n*The Guardian.* Jan 10, 2022;\n\n<https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/jan\/10\/china-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics>\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=HDavidsonVNiChina+battles+Omicron+outbreak+weeks+before+Winter+OlympicsThe+GuardianJan+10%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2022%2Fjan%2F10%2Fchina-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics)\n\n[10\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref100 \"View in article\")\n\nQin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A\n\n**Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin**\n\n*The New York Times.* Jan 15, 2022;\n\n<https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/16\/world\/asia\/omicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html>\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=AQinAChang+ChienOmicron+reaches+Beijing%2C+three+weeks+before+the+Olympics+beginThe+New+York+TimesJan+15%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F01%2F16%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fomicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html)\n\n[11\\.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#body-ref-sbref110 \"View in article\")\n\nUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\n\n**Disease burden of flu**\n\n<https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/about\/burden\/index.html>\n\nDate: Jan 7, 2022\n\nDate accessed: January 17, 2022\n\n[Google Scholar](https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=US+Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+PreventionDisease+burden+of+fluhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fburden%2Findex.htmlJan+7%2C+2022)\n\n## Related Collection\n[![Coronavirus - Copyright: Maurizio De Angelis](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pb\/assets\/raw\/Lancet\/Hubs\/coronavirus\/coronavirus_linkback-1581425974183.jpg)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/clickThrough?id=103216&url=%2Faction%2FdoSearch%3Ftext1%3DCOVID-19%2BOR%2Bcoronavirus%2BOR%2BSARS-CoV-2%2BOR%2B2019-nCoV%26field1%3DTitle%26startPage%3D%26P&loc=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&pubId=60817803&placeholderId=101488&productId=101912)\n\n[COVID-19 Collection](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/clickThrough?id=103216&url=%2Faction%2FdoSearch%3Ftext1%3DCOVID-19%2BOR%2Bcoronavirus%2BOR%2BSARS-CoV-2%2BOR%2B2019-nCoV%26field1%3DTitle%26startPage%3D%26P&loc=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&pubId=60817803&placeholderId=101488&productId=101912)   \n Access the latest 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) content from across *The Lancet* journals as it is published.\n\n## Figures (1)Figure Viewer\n[![](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/asset\/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd\/main.assets\/fx1.jpg)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#f10)\n## Article metrics\n\n[![Recommend this journal to your librarian](https:\/\/no-cache.hubspot.com\/cta\/default\/3798016\/79472462-b4ce-48bc-a460-7e5d92c4f21f.png)](https:\/\/cta-redirect.hubspot.com\/cta\/redirect\/3798016\/79472462-b4ce-48bc-a460-7e5d92c4f21f)\n\n![Advertisement](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/templates\/jsp\/_style2\/_marlin\/images\/bg_adVert.gif)\n\n[View abstract](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/abstract)\n\n[Open in viewer](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\nCOVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near\n\n- ![Figure f10](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/asset\/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd\/main.assets\/fx1.jpg)\n\n[Hide Caption](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)[Download](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)[See figure in Article](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#figures)\n\n[Toggle Thumbstrip](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext)\n\n- Figure\n  ![Figure f10](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/10.1016\/S0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/asset\/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd\/main.assets\/fx1.jpg)\n\n- [Download .PPT](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/downloadFigures?pii=e00489)\n\n[Go to]()\n\nGo to\n\nShow all references\n\nExpand All\n\nCollapse\n\nExpand Table\n\n[Authors Info & Affiliations](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#tab-contributors)\n\n[![The Lancet logo](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pb-assets\/ux3\/logos\/lancet\/LANCET-1665147351037.svg)](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/home \"The Lancet logo\")\n\n## Lancet Journals\n- [The Lancet](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/home)\n- [The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanchi\/home)\n- [The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/landia\/home)\n- [The Lancet Digital Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/landig\/home)\n- [The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langas\/home)\n- [The Lancet Global Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langlo\/home)\n- [The Lancet Haematology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhae\/home)\n- [The Lancet Healthy Longevity](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhl\/home)\n- [The Lancet HIV](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanhiv\/home)\n- [The Lancet Infectious Diseases](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laninf\/home)\n- [The Lancet Microbe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanmic\/home)\n- [The Lancet Neurology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laneur\/home)\n- [The Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology, & Women's Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanogw\/home)\n- [The Lancet Oncology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanonc\/home)\n- [The Lancet Planetary Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanplh\/home)\n- [The Lancet Primary Care](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanprc\/home)\n- [The Lancet Psychiatry](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpsy\/home)\n- [The Lancet Public Health](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpub\/home)\n- [The Lancet Regional Health – Africa](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/regional-health\/africa)\n- [The Lancet Regional Health – Americas](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanam\/home)\n- [The Lancet Regional Health – Europe](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanepe\/home)\n- [The Lancet Regional Health – Southeast Asia](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lansea\/home)\n- [The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanwpc\/home)\n- [The Lancet Respiratory Medicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanres\/home)\n- [The Lancet Rheumatology](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanrhe\/home)\n- [eBioMedicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/ebiom\/home)\n- [eClinicalMedicine](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/eclinm\/home)\n\n## CLINICAL\n- [Clinical resources](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical)\n- [Specialty Collections](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/collections)\n- [Core clinical topics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/core-clinical-topics)\n- [Reviews](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/reviews)\n- [Clinical cases](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinical\/clinical-cases)\n- [Commissions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197)\n- [Series](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197)\n\n## GLOBAL HEALTH INITIATIVES\n- [Global Health Hub](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/global-health)\n- [Commissions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198)\n- [Series](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198)\n- [Global Burden of Disease](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/gbd)\n- [Climate Countdown](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/countdown-health-climate)\n\n## MULTIMEDIA\n- [Multimedia overview](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/multimedia)\n- [Podcasts](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/multimedia\/podcasts)\n- [Videos](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/video-do)\n- [Infographics](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/infographics-do)\n\n## Information\n- [About us](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/about-us)\n- [For authors](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/for-authors)\n- [For advertisers](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/for-advertisers)\n- [Information for press](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/information-for-press)\n- [Statement on offensive historical content](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/health-equity-and-inclusion\/commitments?section=statement)\n- [Open access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/open-access)\n- [Editorial policies](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/editorial-policies)\n- [Community guidelines](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/community-guidelines)\n- [Peer review](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/peer-review)\n- [Preprints](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/preprints)\n\n## Access\n- [Access our content](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/access-to-content)\n- [Personal subscriptions](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe)\n- [Existing print subscribers](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/activateClaim?journalCode=&class=claimSubscription)\n- [Request institutional access](https:\/\/info.thelancet.com\/request-access?utm_campaign=jls-rtl&utm_source=site-footer&utm_medium=website)\n- [Research4Life](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/research4life)\n\n## Connect\n- [Lancet Alerts](https:\/\/info.thelancet.com\/alerts?utm_campaign=alertspillar&utm_source=TL.com&utm_medium=footer&utm_term=Lancet%20Alerts)\n- [Lancet Webinars](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/webinars)\n- [Contact us](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/contact-us)\n- [Customer service](https:\/\/service.elsevier.com\/app\/overview\/lancet\/)\n- [Our global team](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/lancet-people)\n- [Conferences](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/conferences)\n\n***\n**The content on this site is intended for science and health care professionals.**\n***\nWe use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content and ads. To update your cookie settings, please visit the **Cookie Settings** for this site.   \n All content on this site: Copyright © 2026 Elsevier Ltd., its licensors, and contributors.   \n All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.   \n For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.   \n   \n [Privacy Policy](https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/privacy-policy) [Terms and Conditions](https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/elsevier-website-terms-and-conditions) [Accessibility](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/accessibility)   \n   \n [![RELX](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/pb\/assets\/raw\/Lancet\/images\/relx3-1559736305887.png)](https:\/\/www.relx.com\/)\n\nGet access\n\nLog in\n\nPurchase\n\nSubscribe\n\n[Access through your institution](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext)\n\n- New Subscriber: [Claim access with activation code.](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/activate)\n  \n  New subscribers select Claim to enter your activation code.\n\nDon’t already have access? [View purchase options]()\n\n- ### Academic & Personal\n  24-hour online access.\n  Suitable for academic or non-commercial use only.\n  \\$39.95\n  \n  [Academic access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=302566%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true)\n- ### Corporate R\\&D Professionals\n  24-hour online access.\n  Suitable for commercial use.\n  \\$49.95\n  \n  [Corporate access](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=343008%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true)\n- ### The Lancet Choice\n  Access any 5 articles from The Lancet Group. [Learn more](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/clinic\/info99)\n  [Purchase](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=141264%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true)\n\n![](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/cms\/asset\/1f52716e-e019-4b7c-94d4-0d28af41ea6d\/cov150h.gif)\n\n[View all subscription options and pricing](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/subscribe)\n\n✓\n\nThanks for sharing\\!\n\n[AddToAny](https:\/\/www.addtoany.com\/ \"Share Buttons\")\n\n[More…](https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736\$22\$00100-3\/fulltext#addtoany \"Show all\")\n\n\\_\\_(\"articleCrossmark.closePopup\")","attrs_readable_markdown":null,"meta_canonical":null}

3. Robots.txt Check

Query:

Response:

4. Spam/Ban Check

Query:

Response:

5. Seen Status Check

ℹ️ Skipped - page is already crawled

📄

INDEXABLE

✅

CRAWLED

2 months ago

🤖

ROBOTS ALLOWED

Page Info Filters

Filter	Status	Condition	Details
HTTP status	PASS	`download_http_code = 200`	HTTP 200
Age cutoff	PASS	`download_stamp > now() - 6 MONTH`	2.7 months ago
History drop	PASS	`isNull(history_drop_reason)`	No drop reason
Spam/ban	PASS	`fh_dont_index != 1 AND ml_spam_score = 0`	ml_spam_score=0
Canonical	PASS	`meta_canonical IS NULL OR = '' OR = src_unparsed`	Not set

Page Details

Property	Value
URL	https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext
Last Crawled	2026-01-27 09:20:27 (2 months ago)
First Indexed	2022-01-20 01:29:58 (4 years ago)
HTTP Status Code	200
Meta Title	COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near - The Lancet
Meta Description	null
Meta Canonical	null
Boilerpipe Text	The world is experiencing a huge wave of infection with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Estimates based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections suggest that on around Jan 17, 2022 there were 125 million omicron infections a day in the world, which is more than ten times the peak of the delta wave in April, 2021. 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections The omicron wave is inexorably reaching every continent with only a few countries in eastern Europe, North Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania yet to start their wave of this SARS-CoV-2 variant. 1,2 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections 2. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard The unprecedented level of infection suggests that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with omicron between the end of November, 2021 and the end of March, 2022. 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections Although IHME models suggest that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased by more than 30 times from the end of November, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022, reported COVID-19 cases in this period have only increased by six times. 1,2 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections 2. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard Because the proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or mild has increased compared with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, 3,4 3. Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4 , e2137257 4. Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; (preprint). the global infection-detection rate has declined globally from 20% to 5%. 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections Understanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic. 3 3. Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4 , e2137257 Evidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms. 4 4. Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; (preprint). Assuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey estimated a point prevalence of PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection of 6·85% for England on Jan 6, 2022. 5 5. Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK Hospital admission prescreening of individuals without COVID-19 symptoms in the University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, WA, USA, did not exceed 2% throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but exceeded 10% in the week of Jan 10, 2022 (Murray CJL, unpublished). In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks. 2 2. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard The proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa. 6,7 6. Ulloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada MedRxiv. 2022; (preprint). 7. Maslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al. Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves JAMA. 2021; Despite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models. 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections In countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals. Given population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of more than 10%, such as reported by the ONS infection survey in London, England, 5 5. Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK large numbers of health workers are testing positive and are required to quarantine, which puts a double pressure on hospitals. Countries will need to prioritise support for health systems in the next 4–6 weeks. Data from Greece, however, hold out hope that severe COVID-19 outcomes from the omicron wave will be limited; from Dec 21, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022 COVID-19 cases increased nearly 10 times but hospital intubations among COVID-19 hospital patients have remained the same as in December. 8 8. Greek Government COVID-19 daily overview Surprisingly, IHME models 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins. 1,2 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections 2. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. 2 2. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. 1 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile. A question remains in relation to the countries pursuing zero COVID-19 strategies, such as China and New Zealand. China has local omicron transmission in January, 2022. 9,10 9. Davidson, H ∙ Ni, V China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics The Guardian. Jan 10, 2022; 10. Qin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin The New York Times. Jan 15, 2022; Given the high transmissibility of omicron, it seems unlikely that China or New Zealand will be able to permanently exclude the omicron wave. For zero COVID-19 countries, the question will be one of timing. Later omicron surges will allow further progress on increasing vaccination coverage and better understanding of the impact of the omicron variant in a fairly immunologically naive population. By March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission. Copyright © 2022 MF3d/Getty Images I use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal efforts over the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months. The impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day. 11 11. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Disease burden of flu The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not. Competing Interests I declare no competing interests. References Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4 , e2137257 Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; (preprint). Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK Ulloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada MedRxiv. 2022; (preprint). Maslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al. Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves JAMA. 2021; Greek Government COVID-19 daily overview Davidson, H ∙ Ni, V China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics The Guardian. Jan 10, 2022; Qin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin The New York Times. Jan 15, 2022; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Disease burden of flu
Markdown	[Skip to Main Content](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#page-body-id "Skip to Main Content") [Skip to Main Menu](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#mega-menu-nav "Skip to Main Menu") ## Login to your account Don’t have an account? [Create a Free Account](https://www.thelancet.com/action/registration?redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext) If you don't remember your password, you can reset it by entering your email address and clicking the Reset Password button. You will then receive an email that contains a secure link for resetting your password If the address matches a valid account an email will be sent to \_\_email\_\_ with instructions for resetting your password [Cancel](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext "Close reset password popup") ADVERTISEMENT SCROLL TO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT Open GPT Console Open Oracle Keywords Refresh Values \| Property \| Value \| \|---\|---\| \| Status \| \| \| Version \| \| \| Ad File \| \| \| Disable Ads Flag \| \| \| Environment \| \| \| Moat Init \| \| \| Moat Ready \| \| \| Contextual Ready \| \| \| Contextual URL \| \| \| Contextual Initial Segments \| \| \| Contextual Used Segments \| \| \| AdUnit \| \| \| SubAdUnit \| \| \| Custom Targeting \| \| \| Ad Events \| \| \| Invalid Ad Sizes \| \| ![Advertisement](https://www.thelancet.com/templates/jsp/_style2/_marlin/images/bg_adHoriz.gif) [![The Lancet Journal](https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/ux3/logos/lancet/lancet-1665147351037.svg)](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/home "The Lancet Journal") - [Submit Article](https://www.editorialmanager.com/thelancet "Submit Article") - Log in - [Log in](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=login&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Log in to Lancet.com") - [Get Institutional Access](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Institutional access") - [Register](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=registration&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Register a username and password for free") - open links dialog close links dialog - [Submit Article](https://www.editorialmanager.com/thelancet "Submit Article") - [Log in](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=login&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Log in to Lancet.com") - [Get Institutional Access](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Institutional access") - [Register](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=registration&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext "Register a username and password for free") Access provided by Main menu - This journal - #### Read - [Online first](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/onlinefirst) - [Current issue](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/current) - [All issues](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issues) - [Special issues](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/specialIssue) - [Series](https://www.thelancet.com/series-do?startPage=&JournalFacetField=The%20Lancet) - [Commissions](https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do?startPage=&JournalFacetField=The%20Lancet) - #### About - [About the journal](https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/about) - [Subscribe](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe) - [Request institutional access External Link](https://info.thelancet.com/request-access) - [Alerts](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPreferences?menuTab=Alerts) - #### Multimedia - [Podcasts](https://www.thelancet.com/multimedia/podcasts/in-conversation-with/lancet) - Journals - #### Journals - [The Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/home) - [The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/home) - [The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/home) - [The Lancet Digital Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/home) - [The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/home) - [The Lancet Global Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/home) - [The Lancet Haematology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhae/home) - [The Lancet Healthy Longevity](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhl/home) - [The Lancet HIV](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/home) - [The Lancet Infectious Diseases](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/home) - [The Lancet Microbe](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/home) - [The Lancet Neurology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laneur/home) - [The Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology, & Women's Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanogw/home) - [The Lancet Oncology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/home) - [The Lancet Planetary Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/home) - [The Lancet Primary Care](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanprc/home) - [The Lancet Psychiatry](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/home) - [The Lancet Public Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/home) - [The Lancet Respiratory Medicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/home) - [The Lancet Rheumatology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/home) - #### Regional Health Journals - [The Lancet Regional Health - Africa](https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/africa) - [The Lancet Regional Health - Americas](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health - Europe](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lansea/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/home) - #### Discovery Science Journals - [eBioMedicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/home) - [eClinicalMedicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/home) - Publish - #### Publish - [Publish with The Lancet Group](https://www.thelancet.com/for-authors) - [Submit your manuscript](https://www.thelancet.com/submit) - #### Resources for authors - [Submission guidelines](https://www.thelancet.com/submission-guidelines) - [Content types](https://www.thelancet.com/what-we-publish) - [Editorial policies](https://www.thelancet.com/editorial-policies) - [Pathways to publication](https://www.thelancet.com/pathways-to-publication) - [Journey of a paper](https://www.thelancet.com/journey-paper) - #### Publishing with us - [Why publish with us?](https://www.thelancet.com/why-publish) - [Open access](https://www.thelancet.com/open-access) - [Our journals](https://www.thelancet.com/which-journal) - [Peer review](https://www.thelancet.com/peer-review) - [Journal impact metrics](https://www.thelancet.com/journal-impact-metrics) - [Preprints with The Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/preprints) - Clinical - #### Clinical - [Clinical resources](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical) - [Core clinical topics](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/core-clinical-topics) - [Reviews](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/reviews) - [Clinical cases](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/clinical-cases) - [Commissions](https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197) - [Series](https://www.thelancet.com/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197) - #### Specialty collections - [Artificial intelligence](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/artificial-intelligence) - [Cardiology & Vascular Medicine](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/cardiology-vascular-medicine) - [Diabetes & Endocrinology](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/endocrinology) - [Infectious diseases](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/infectious-diseases) - [Neurology](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/neurology) - [Oncology](https://www.thelancet.com/collections/oncology) - [View all specialty collections](https://www.thelancet.com/collections) - Global health - #### Global health - [Global health overview](https://www.thelancet.com/global-health) - [Commissions](https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198) - [Series](https://www.thelancet.com/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198) - [Global burden of disease](https://www.thelancet.com/gbd) - [Climate countdown](https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate) - #### Collections - [COVID-19](https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?text1=COVID-19+OR+coronavirus+OR+SARS-CoV-2+OR+2019-nCoV&field1=Title&startPage=&P) - [Disease Control Priorities (DCP-3)](https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?type=quicksearch&text1=%22Disease+Control+Priorities%22&field1=Title) - [Ebola](https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?text1=Ebola&field1=Title&startPage=&P) - [Mpox](https://www.thelancet.com/mpox) - [Ukraine](https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?text1=Ukraine+OR+Ukrainian&field1=Title&startPage=&P) - [Zika](https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?text1=Zika&field1=Title&startPage=&P) - Multimedia - [Multimedia overview](https://www.thelancet.com/multimedia) - [Podcasts](https://www.thelancet.com/multimedia/podcasts) - [Videos](https://www.thelancet.com/video-do) - [Infographics](https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do) - Events - [The Lancet Group's global events](https://www.thelancet.com/events) - [Conferences](https://www.thelancet.com/events/conferences) - [The Lancet Webinars](https://www.thelancet.com/webinars) - [200 years of The Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/lancet-200) - About - #### The Lancet Group - [About The Lancet Group](https://www.thelancet.com/about-us) - [Health equity & inclusion](https://www.thelancet.com/health-equity-and-inclusion) - [The Lancet Regional Health](https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health) - [The Lancet Discovery Science](https://www.thelancet.com/discovery-science) - #### Access - [Open access](https://www.thelancet.com/open-access) - [Access our content](https://www.thelancet.com/access-content) - [Request institutional access External Link](https://info.thelancet.com/request-access) - [Research4Life](https://www.thelancet.com/research4life) - [Subscribe](https://www.thelancet.com/subscribe) - #### Connect - [Contact us](https://www.thelancet.com/contact-us) - [Our global team](https://www.thelancet.com/lancet-people) - [Customer service External Link](https://service.elsevier.com/app/overview/lancet/) - [Press office](https://www.thelancet.com/information-for-press) - [Commercial sales](https://www.thelancet.com/for-advertisers) - [Lancet alerts External Link](https://info.thelancet.com/alerts) Comment[Volume 399, Issue 10323](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/vol399no10323/PIIS0140-6736$22$X0004-4)p417-419January 29, 2022 Download Full Issue Download started [Ok](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) # COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near [Christopher J L Murray](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) Christopher J L Murray Correspondence [cjlm@uw.edu](mailto:cjlm@uw.edu "Send email to Christopher J L Murray") Affiliations Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98105, USA [Search for articles by this author](https://www.thelancet.com/authored-by/Murray/Christopher+J+L) [cjlm@uw.edu](mailto:cjlm@uw.edu "Send email to Christopher J L Murray") Affiliations & Notes Article Info Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98105, USA Publication History: Published January 19, 2022 DOI: [10\.1016/S0140-6736(22)00100-3 External Link](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3)Also available on [ScienceDirect External Link](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673622001003) Copyright: © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. [![Cover Image - The Lancet, Volume 399, Issue 10323](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/asset/4528ce43-9944-4c38-a33d-53668d1ac6ac/cov200h.gif)](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/vol399no10323/PIIS0140-6736$22$X0004-4) [Download PDFDownload PDF](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 "Standard PDF (opens in a new tab)") Outline Outline - [Competing Interests](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#conflict) - [References](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#references) - [Article metrics](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#core-collateral-metrics) Share #### Share Share on - [Email](https://www.thelancet.com/#email "Email") - [X](https://www.thelancet.com/#twitter "formerly known as Twitter") - [Facebook](https://www.thelancet.com/#facebook "Facebook") - [LinkedIn](https://www.thelancet.com/#linkedin "LinkedIn") - [Sina Weibo](https://www.thelancet.com/#sina_weibo "Sina Weibo") - [Mendeley](https://www.thelancet.com/#mendeley "Mendeley") - [Bluesky](https://www.thelancet.com/#bluesky "Bluesky") [Add to my reading list](https://www.thelancet.com/personalize/addFavoritePublication?doi=10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3) More More - [Download PDFDownload PDF](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 "Standard PDF (opens in a new tab)") - [Cite](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showCitFormats?doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 "Cite") - Share #### Share Share on - [Email](https://www.thelancet.com/#email "Email") - [X](https://www.thelancet.com/#twitter "formerly known as Twitter") - [Facebook](https://www.thelancet.com/#facebook "Facebook") - [LinkedIn](https://www.thelancet.com/#linkedin "LinkedIn") - [Sina Weibo](https://www.thelancet.com/#sina_weibo "Sina Weibo") - [Mendeley](https://www.thelancet.com/#mendeley "Mendeley") - [Bluesky](https://www.thelancet.com/#bluesky "Bluesky") [Add to my reading list](https://www.thelancet.com/personalize/addFavoritePublication?doi=10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3) - [Set Alert](https://www.thelancet.com/action/addCitationAlert?doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3 "Set Alert") - [Get Rights](https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?publisherName=ELS&contentID=S0140673622001003&orderBeanReset=true&orderSource=Phoenix "Get Rights") - [Reprints](https://www.contentednet.com/salesforce-form/?pii=S0140673622001003&issn=01406736&source=jbs "Reprints") Download Full Issue Download started [Ok](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) [Previous article](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00096-4/fulltext)[Next article](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00003-4/fulltext) Show Outline Hide Outline - [Competing Interests](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#conflict) - [References](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#references) - [Article metrics](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#core-collateral-metrics) The world is experiencing a huge wave of infection with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Estimates based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) suggest that on around Jan 17, 2022 there were 125 million omicron infections a day in the world, which is more than ten times the peak of the delta wave in April, 2021. [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) The omicron wave is inexorably reaching every continent with only a few countries in eastern Europe, North Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania yet to start their wave of this SARS-CoV-2 variant. [1,2](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) 2\. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) The unprecedented level of infection suggests that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with omicron between the end of November, 2021 and the end of March, 2022. [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) Although IHME models suggest that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased by more than 30 times from the end of November, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022, reported COVID-19 cases in this period have only increased by six times. [1,2](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) 2\. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) Because the proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or mild has increased compared with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, [3,4](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 3\. Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4, e2137257 [Scopus (4)](https://www.thelancet.com/servlet/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056) [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257) 4\. Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; published online Jan 14. <https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.20.21268130> (preprint). [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.) the global infection-detection rate has declined globally from 20% to 5%. [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) Understanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic. [3](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 3\. Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4, e2137257 [Scopus (4)](https://www.thelancet.com/servlet/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056) [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257) Evidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms. [4](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 4\. Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; published online Jan 14. <https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.20.21268130> (preprint). [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.) Assuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey estimated a point prevalence of PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection of 6·85% for England on Jan 6, 2022. [5](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 5\. Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/14january2022> Date: 14 January 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022) Hospital admission prescreening of individuals without COVID-19 symptoms in the University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, WA, USA, did not exceed 2% throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but exceeded 10% in the week of Jan 10, 2022 (Murray CJL, unpublished). In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks. [2](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 2\. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) The proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa. [6,7](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 6\. Ulloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada MedRxiv. 2022; published online Jan 2. <https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268382> (preprint). [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=AUlloaSBuchanNDanemanKBrownEarly+estimates+of+SARS-CoV-2+Omicron+variant+severity+based+on+a+matched+cohort+study%2C+Ontario+CanadaMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+2.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.24.21268382%28preprint%29.) 7\. Maslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al. Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves JAMA. 2021; published online Dec 30. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.24868> [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=CMasloRFriedlandMToubkinCharacteristics+and+outcomes+of+hospitalizaed+patients+in+South+Africa+during+the+COVID-19+Omicron+wave+compared+with+previous+wavesJAMA2021published+online+Dec+30.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1001%2Fjama.2021.24868) Despite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models. [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) In countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals. Given population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of more than 10%, such as reported by the ONS infection survey in London, England, [5](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 5\. Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/14january2022> Date: 14 January 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022) large numbers of health workers are testing positive and are required to quarantine, which puts a double pressure on hospitals. Countries will need to prioritise support for health systems in the next 4–6 weeks. Data from Greece, however, hold out hope that severe COVID-19 outcomes from the omicron wave will be limited; from Dec 21, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022 COVID-19 cases increased nearly 10 times but hospital intubations among COVID-19 hospital patients have remained the same as in December. [8](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 8\. Greek Government COVID-19 daily overview <https://covid19.gov.gr/covid19-live-analytics/> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Greek+GovernmentCOVID-19+daily+overviewhttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.gov.gr%2Fcovid19-live-analytics%2F2022) Surprisingly, IHME models [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins. [1,2](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) 2\. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. [2](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 2\. Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. [1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 1\. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile. A question remains in relation to the countries pursuing zero COVID-19 strategies, such as China and New Zealand. China has local omicron transmission in January, 2022. [9,10](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 9\. Davidson, H ∙ Ni, V China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics The Guardian. Jan 10, 2022; <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/china-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics> Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=HDavidsonVNiChina+battles+Omicron+outbreak+weeks+before+Winter+OlympicsThe+GuardianJan+10%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2022%2Fjan%2F10%2Fchina-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics) 10\. Qin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin The New York Times. Jan 15, 2022; <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/world/asia/omicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html> Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=AQinAChang+ChienOmicron+reaches+Beijing%2C+three+weeks+before+the+Olympics+beginThe+New+York+TimesJan+15%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F01%2F16%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fomicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html) Given the high transmissibility of omicron, it seems unlikely that China or New Zealand will be able to permanently exclude the omicron wave. For zero COVID-19 countries, the question will be one of timing. Later omicron surges will allow further progress on increasing vaccination coverage and better understanding of the impact of the omicron variant in a fairly immunologically naive population. By March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission. [![Figure f10](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3/asset/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd/main.assets/fx1.jpg)](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3/asset/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd/main.assets/fx1.jpg "View full size image in a new tab") Figure viewer Copyright © 2022 MF3d/Getty Images I use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal efforts over the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months. The impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day. [11](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) 11\. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Disease burden of flu <https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html> Date: Jan 7, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=US+Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+PreventionDisease+burden+of+fluhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fburden%2Findex.htmlJan+7%2C+2022) The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not. For data and R code on GitHub see <https://github.com/davidlvb/Crick-UCLH-Legacy-Omicron-2021-12]> ## Competing Interests I declare no competing interests. ## References [1\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref10-1 "View in article") Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections <https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend> Date: Jan 17, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Institute+for+Health+Metrics+and+EvaluationCOVID-19+projectionshttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.healthdata.org%2Fglobal%3Fview%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3DtrendJan+17%2C+2022) [2\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref20-1 "View in article") Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 dashboard <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Johns+Hopkins+Coronavirus+Resource+CenterCOVID-19+dashboardhttps%3A%2F%2Fcoronavirus.jhu.edu%2Fmap.html2022) [3\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref40-1 "View in article") Ma, Q ∙ Liu, J ∙ Liu, Q ∙ et al. Global percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among the tested population and individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis JAMA Netw Open. 2021; 4, e2137257 [Scopus (4)](https://www.thelancet.com/servlet/linkout?suffix=e_1_4_1_2_3_2&dbid=137438953472&doi=10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&key=2-s2.0-85121327056) [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=QMaJLiuQLiuGlobal+percentage+of+asymptomatic+SARS-CoV-2+infections+among+the+tested+population+and+individuals+with+confirmed+COVID-19+diagnosis%3A+a+systematic+review+and+meta-analysisJAMA+Netw+Open42021e2137257) [4\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref40-1 "View in article") Garrett, N ∙ Tapley, A ∙ Andriesen, J ∙ et al. High rate of asymptomatic carriage associated with variant strain Omicron MedRxiv. 2022; published online Jan 14. <https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.20.21268130> (preprint). [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=NGarrettATapleyJAndriesenHigh+rate+of+asymptomatic+carriage+associated+with+variant+strain+OmicronMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+14.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.20.21268130%28preprint%29.) [5\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref50-1 "View in article") Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/14january2022> Date: 14 January 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Office+for+National+StatisticsCoronavirus+%28COVID-19%29+Infection+Survey%2C+UKhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fhealthandsocialcare%2Fconditionsanddiseases%2Fbulletins%2Fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot%2F14january202214+January+2022) [6\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref70 "View in article") Ulloa, A ∙ Buchan, S ∙ Daneman, N ∙ et al. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario Canada MedRxiv. 2022; published online Jan 2. <https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268382> (preprint). [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=AUlloaSBuchanNDanemanKBrownEarly+estimates+of+SARS-CoV-2+Omicron+variant+severity+based+on+a+matched+cohort+study%2C+Ontario+CanadaMedRxiv2022published+online+Jan+2.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1101%2F2021.12.24.21268382%28preprint%29.) [7\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref70 "View in article") Maslo, C ∙ Friedland, R ∙ Toubkin, M ∙ et al. Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalizaed patients in South Africa during the COVID-19 Omicron wave compared with previous waves JAMA. 2021; published online Dec 30. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.24868> [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=CMasloRFriedlandMToubkinCharacteristics+and+outcomes+of+hospitalizaed+patients+in+South+Africa+during+the+COVID-19+Omicron+wave+compared+with+previous+wavesJAMA2021published+online+Dec+30.https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1001%2Fjama.2021.24868) [8\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref80 "View in article") Greek Government COVID-19 daily overview <https://covid19.gov.gr/covid19-live-analytics/> Date: 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Greek+GovernmentCOVID-19+daily+overviewhttps%3A%2F%2Fcovid19.gov.gr%2Fcovid19-live-analytics%2F2022) [9\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref100 "View in article") Davidson, H ∙ Ni, V China battles Omicron outbreak weeks before Winter Olympics The Guardian. Jan 10, 2022; <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/china-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics> Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=HDavidsonVNiChina+battles+Omicron+outbreak+weeks+before+Winter+OlympicsThe+GuardianJan+10%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2022%2Fjan%2F10%2Fchina-battles-omicron-outbreak-weeks-before-winter-olympics) [10\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref100 "View in article") Qin, A ∙ Chang Chien, A Omicron reaches Beijing, three weeks before the Olympics begin The New York Times. Jan 15, 2022; <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/world/asia/omicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html> Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=AQinAChang+ChienOmicron+reaches+Beijing%2C+three+weeks+before+the+Olympics+beginThe+New+York+TimesJan+15%2C+2022https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F01%2F16%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fomicron-reaches-beijing-three-weeks-before-the-olympics-begin.html) [11\.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#body-ref-sbref110 "View in article") US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Disease burden of flu <https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html> Date: Jan 7, 2022 Date accessed: January 17, 2022 [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=US+Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+PreventionDisease+burden+of+fluhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fburden%2Findex.htmlJan+7%2C+2022) ## Related Collection [![Coronavirus - Copyright: Maurizio De Angelis](https://www.thelancet.com/pb/assets/raw/Lancet/Hubs/coronavirus/coronavirus_linkback-1581425974183.jpg)](https://www.thelancet.com/action/clickThrough?id=103216&url=%2Faction%2FdoSearch%3Ftext1%3DCOVID-19%2BOR%2Bcoronavirus%2BOR%2BSARS-CoV-2%2BOR%2B2019-nCoV%26field1%3DTitle%26startPage%3D%26P&loc=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&pubId=60817803&placeholderId=101488&productId=101912) [COVID-19 Collection](https://www.thelancet.com/action/clickThrough?id=103216&url=%2Faction%2FdoSearch%3Ftext1%3DCOVID-19%2BOR%2Bcoronavirus%2BOR%2BSARS-CoV-2%2BOR%2B2019-nCoV%26field1%3DTitle%26startPage%3D%26P&loc=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&pubId=60817803&placeholderId=101488&productId=101912) Access the latest 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) content from across The Lancet journals as it is published. ## Figures (1)Figure Viewer [![](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3/asset/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd/main.assets/fx1.jpg)](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#f10) ## Article metrics [![Recommend this journal to your librarian](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/3798016/79472462-b4ce-48bc-a460-7e5d92c4f21f.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/3798016/79472462-b4ce-48bc-a460-7e5d92c4f21f) ![Advertisement](https://www.thelancet.com/templates/jsp/_style2/_marlin/images/bg_adVert.gif) [View abstract](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/abstract) [Open in viewer](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near - ![Figure f10](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3/asset/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd/main.assets/fx1.jpg) [Hide Caption](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext)[Download](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext)[See figure in Article](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#figures) [Toggle Thumbstrip](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext) - Figure ![Figure f10](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736$22$00100-3/asset/3bfb6a44-b9e3-4ba7-9674-55ea4bdda3cd/main.assets/fx1.jpg) - [Download .PPT](https://www.thelancet.com/action/downloadFigures?pii=e00489) [Go to]() Go to Show all references Expand All Collapse Expand Table [Authors Info & Affiliations](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#tab-contributors) [![The Lancet logo](https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/ux3/logos/lancet/LANCET-1665147351037.svg)](https://www.thelancet.com/home "The Lancet logo") ## Lancet Journals - [The Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/home) - [The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/home) - [The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/home) - [The Lancet Digital Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/home) - [The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/home) - [The Lancet Global Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/home) - [The Lancet Haematology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhae/home) - [The Lancet Healthy Longevity](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhl/home) - [The Lancet HIV](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/home) - [The Lancet Infectious Diseases](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/home) - [The Lancet Microbe](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/home) - [The Lancet Neurology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laneur/home) - [The Lancet Obstetrics, Gynaecology, & Women's Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanogw/home) - [The Lancet Oncology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/home) - [The Lancet Planetary Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/home) - [The Lancet Primary Care](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanprc/home) - [The Lancet Psychiatry](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/home) - [The Lancet Public Health](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health – Africa](https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/africa) - [The Lancet Regional Health – Americas](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health – Europe](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health – Southeast Asia](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lansea/home) - [The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/home) - [The Lancet Respiratory Medicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/home) - [The Lancet Rheumatology](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/home) - [eBioMedicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/home) - [eClinicalMedicine](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/home) ## CLINICAL - [Clinical resources](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical) - [Specialty Collections](https://www.thelancet.com/collections) - [Core clinical topics](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/core-clinical-topics) - [Reviews](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/reviews) - [Clinical cases](https://www.thelancet.com/clinical/clinical-cases) - [Commissions](https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197) - [Series](https://www.thelancet.com/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912197) ## GLOBAL HEALTH INITIATIVES - [Global Health Hub](https://www.thelancet.com/global-health) - [Commissions](https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198) - [Series](https://www.thelancet.com/series-do?startPage=&ConceptID=912198) - [Global Burden of Disease](https://www.thelancet.com/gbd) - [Climate Countdown](https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate) ## MULTIMEDIA - [Multimedia overview](https://www.thelancet.com/multimedia) - [Podcasts](https://www.thelancet.com/multimedia/podcasts) - [Videos](https://www.thelancet.com/video-do) - [Infographics](https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do) ## Information - [About us](https://www.thelancet.com/about-us) - [For authors](https://www.thelancet.com/for-authors) - [For advertisers](https://www.thelancet.com/for-advertisers) - [Information for press](https://www.thelancet.com/information-for-press) - [Statement on offensive historical content](https://www.thelancet.com/health-equity-and-inclusion/commitments?section=statement) - [Open access](https://www.thelancet.com/open-access) - [Editorial policies](https://www.thelancet.com/editorial-policies) - [Community guidelines](https://www.thelancet.com/community-guidelines) - [Peer review](https://www.thelancet.com/peer-review) - [Preprints](https://www.thelancet.com/preprints) ## Access - [Access our content](https://www.thelancet.com/access-to-content) - [Personal subscriptions](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe) - [Existing print subscribers](https://www.thelancet.com/action/activateClaim?journalCode=&class=claimSubscription) - [Request institutional access](https://info.thelancet.com/request-access?utm_campaign=jls-rtl&utm_source=site-footer&utm_medium=website) - [Research4Life](https://www.thelancet.com/research4life) ## Connect - [Lancet Alerts](https://info.thelancet.com/alerts?utm_campaign=alertspillar&utm_source=TL.com&utm_medium=footer&utm_term=Lancet%20Alerts) - [Lancet Webinars](https://www.thelancet.com/webinars) - [Contact us](https://www.thelancet.com/contact-us) - [Customer service](https://service.elsevier.com/app/overview/lancet/) - [Our global team](https://www.thelancet.com/lancet-people) - [Conferences](https://www.thelancet.com/conferences) * The content on this site is intended for science and health care professionals. * We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content and ads. To update your cookie settings, please visit the Cookie Settings for this site. All content on this site: Copyright © 2026 Elsevier Ltd., its licensors, and contributors. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply. [Privacy Policy](https://www.elsevier.com/legal/privacy-policy) [Terms and Conditions](https://www.elsevier.com/legal/elsevier-website-terms-and-conditions) [Accessibility](https://www.thelancet.com/accessibility) [![RELX](https://www.thelancet.com/pb/assets/raw/Lancet/images/relx3-1559736305887.png)](https://www.relx.com/) Get access Log in Purchase Subscribe [Access through your institution](https://www.thelancet.com/action/idLogin?type=institution&redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext) - New Subscriber: [Claim access with activation code.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/activate) New subscribers select Claim to enter your activation code. Don’t already have access? [View purchase options]() - ### Academic & Personal 24-hour online access. Suitable for academic or non-commercial use only. \$39.95 [Academic access](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=302566%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true) - ### Corporate R\&D Professionals 24-hour online access. Suitable for commercial use. \$49.95 [Corporate access](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=343008%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true) - ### The Lancet Choice Access any 5 articles from The Lancet Group. [Learn more](https://www.thelancet.com/clinic/info99) [Purchase](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe?backUri=%2Fjournals%2Flancet%2Farticle%2FPIIS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3%2Ffulltext&offerId=141264%2C10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2822%2900100-3&addToCart=true) ![](https://www.thelancet.com/cms/asset/1f52716e-e019-4b7c-94d4-0d28af41ea6d/cov150h.gif) [View all subscription options and pricing](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/subscribe) ✓ Thanks for sharing\! [AddToAny](https://www.addtoany.com/ "Share Buttons") [More…](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736$22$00100-3/fulltext#addtoany "Show all") \_\_("articleCrossmark.closePopup")
Readable Markdown	null
Shard	120 (laksa)
Root Hash	16469721507011418920
Unparsed URL	com,thelancet!www,/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext s443