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| Meta Title | China will not invade Taiwan in 2027, says US |
| Meta Description | Intelligence report says Beijing prefers peaceful unification with island ‘despite the threat to use force’ |
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| Boilerpipe Text | Intelligence report says Beijing prefers peaceful unification with island ‘despite the threat to use force’
Allegra Mendelson
Asia Correspondent,
in Taiwan
Allegra Mendelson is The Telegraph's Asia Correspondent based in Taiwan.
See more
Published
19 March 2026 10:21am GMT
China is not planning to invade
Taiwan
in 2027, according to an assessment from US intelligence agencies.
Instead, Beijing is seeking to gain control of the island without the use of force, the report has said.
The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on Wednesday, said: “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.”
The report added that “despite the threat to use force”, China “prefers to achieve unification
without the use of force
”.
Donald Trump, who has
delayed his trip to China
set to take place at the end of this month, previously said that Xi Jinping had assured him that China would not invade Taiwan while he was in office.
However, China continues to step up its military aggression around Taiwan, carrying out daily grey-zone infringements – which are activities that fall short of the threshold of armed conflict – around the island as well as regular large-scale military exercises.
China has one of the world’s fastest-growing and largest militaries, with more
troops, warships and fighter jets than the US
. However, experts have said that the size of Beijing’s armed forces does not necessarily equal capability.
China has been carrying out military drills around Taiwan despite seeking ‘peaceful unification’ with the island
Credit
: Reuters
The intelligence assessment noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter – and, if necessary, defeat – US military intervention”.
While the US does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, it is the country’s largest arms supplier, and Washington is
likely to be pulled into the conflict
if Beijing were to attack.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington said: “China has never abandoned the use of force against Taiwan, and its continued military intimidation and grey-zone operations pose serious threats not only to Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability.”
US intelligence identified 2027 as the year that Mr Xi told his troops to be
prepared for an invasion
because it marks the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.
Next year also lies at the end of the Davidson Window, which is the timeframe between 2021 and 2027, during which military experts believe China could develop the capability to attempt to invade Taiwan.
Mr Xi has reportedly denied ever setting such a timeline, telling a US official in 2024 that there were “no such plans”.
Experts on Chinese affairs have also pointed out that the intelligence did not indicate when Beijing would launch the attack but rather when it would be ready to do so.
Peaceful reunification is not a new concept for China’s ambitions over Taiwan.
Beijing has long offered to govern Taiwan under a “one country, two systems” policy, which it technically has with Hong Kong.
This proposal has limited support in Taiwan.
On Wednesday, Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan affairs office, offered to provide the island with “stable and reliable energy and resource security” if it agreed to “peaceful reunification”.
He made the comment as nations were scrambling for alternative energy supplies during the
war in Iran
.
Taipei rejected the offer, with Ho Chin-tsang, Taiwan’s deputy economy minister, telling politicians that this proposal “is impossible” and part of China’s “cognitive warfare”.
Taiwan, which receives a third of its liquefied natural gas from Qatar, has said it has enough supply to last until the end of April and will be importing more oil from the US in June. |
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# China will not invade Taiwan in 2027, says US
Intelligence report says Beijing prefers peaceful unification with island ‘despite the threat to use force’
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[Allegra Mendelson](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/allegra-mendelson0/) Asia Correspondent, in Taiwan 
Allegra Mendelson is The Telegraph's Asia Correspondent based in Taiwan. [See more]() She focuses on cross-Strait relations, defence and regional politics. She has written for Al Jazeera, The Washington Post and The Independent.
Published
19 March 2026 10:21am GMT
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Xi Jinping has told Donald Trump that China will not invade Taiwan while he is in office Credit: Yue Yuewei/Xinhua
[Allegra Mendelson](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/allegra-mendelson0/) Asia Correspondent, in Taiwan 
Allegra Mendelson is The Telegraph's Asia Correspondent based in Taiwan. [See more]() She focuses on cross-Strait relations, defence and regional politics. She has written for Al Jazeera, The Washington Post and The Independent.
Published
19 March 2026 10:21am GMT
China is not planning to invade [Taiwan](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/taiwan/) in 2027, according to an assessment from US intelligence agencies.
Instead, Beijing is seeking to gain control of the island without the use of force, the report has said.
The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on Wednesday, said: “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.”
The report added that “despite the threat to use force”, China “prefers to achieve unification [without the use of force](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/27/xi-purge-army-commander-taiwan-invasion-china-hit/)”.
Donald Trump, who has [delayed his trip to China](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/03/16/trump-iran-war-delayed/) set to take place at the end of this month, previously said that Xi Jinping had assured him that China would not invade Taiwan while he was in office.
However, China continues to step up its military aggression around Taiwan, carrying out daily grey-zone infringements – which are activities that fall short of the threshold of armed conflict – around the island as well as regular large-scale military exercises.
China has one of the world’s fastest-growing and largest militaries, with more [troops, warships and fighter jets than the US](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/25/china-military-capability-missiles-peoples-liberation-army/). However, experts have said that the size of Beijing’s armed forces does not necessarily equal capability.

China has been carrying out military drills around Taiwan despite seeking ‘peaceful unification’ with the island Credit: Reuters
The intelligence assessment noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter – and, if necessary, defeat – US military intervention”.
While the US does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, it is the country’s largest arms supplier, and Washington is [likely to be pulled into the conflict](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/05/31/us-plans-to-fight-off-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/) if Beijing were to attack.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington said: “China has never abandoned the use of force against Taiwan, and its continued military intimidation and grey-zone operations pose serious threats not only to Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability.”
US intelligence identified 2027 as the year that Mr Xi told his troops to be [prepared for an invasion](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/18/china-warns-trump-arms-sale-taiwan-bring-fire-united-states/) because it marks the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.
Next year also lies at the end of the Davidson Window, which is the timeframe between 2021 and 2027, during which military experts believe China could develop the capability to attempt to invade Taiwan.
Mr Xi has reportedly denied ever setting such a timeline, telling a US official in 2024 that there were “no such plans”.
Experts on Chinese affairs have also pointed out that the intelligence did not indicate when Beijing would launch the attack but rather when it would be ready to do so.
Peaceful reunification is not a new concept for China’s ambitions over Taiwan.
Beijing has long offered to govern Taiwan under a “one country, two systems” policy, which it technically has with Hong Kong.
This proposal has limited support in Taiwan.
On Wednesday, Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan affairs office, offered to provide the island with “stable and reliable energy and resource security” if it agreed to “peaceful reunification”.
He made the comment as nations were scrambling for alternative energy supplies during the [war in Iran](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/19/iran-war-latest-news-trump-qatar-energy-strikes/).
Taipei rejected the offer, with Ho Chin-tsang, Taiwan’s deputy economy minister, telling politicians that this proposal “is impossible” and part of China’s “cognitive warfare”.
Taiwan, which receives a third of its liquefied natural gas from Qatar, has said it has enough supply to last until the end of April and will be importing more oil from the US in June.
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| Readable Markdown | Intelligence report says Beijing prefers peaceful unification with island ‘despite the threat to use force’
[Allegra Mendelson](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/allegra-mendelson0/) Asia Correspondent, in Taiwan Allegra Mendelson is The Telegraph's Asia Correspondent based in Taiwan. [See more]()
Published 19 March 2026 10:21am GMT
China is not planning to invade [Taiwan](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/taiwan/) in 2027, according to an assessment from US intelligence agencies.
Instead, Beijing is seeking to gain control of the island without the use of force, the report has said.
The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on Wednesday, said: “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.”
The report added that “despite the threat to use force”, China “prefers to achieve unification [without the use of force](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/27/xi-purge-army-commander-taiwan-invasion-china-hit/)”.
Donald Trump, who has [delayed his trip to China](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/03/16/trump-iran-war-delayed/) set to take place at the end of this month, previously said that Xi Jinping had assured him that China would not invade Taiwan while he was in office.
However, China continues to step up its military aggression around Taiwan, carrying out daily grey-zone infringements – which are activities that fall short of the threshold of armed conflict – around the island as well as regular large-scale military exercises.
China has one of the world’s fastest-growing and largest militaries, with more [troops, warships and fighter jets than the US](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/25/china-military-capability-missiles-peoples-liberation-army/). However, experts have said that the size of Beijing’s armed forces does not necessarily equal capability.

China has been carrying out military drills around Taiwan despite seeking ‘peaceful unification’ with the island Credit: Reuters
The intelligence assessment noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter – and, if necessary, defeat – US military intervention”.
While the US does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, it is the country’s largest arms supplier, and Washington is [likely to be pulled into the conflict](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/05/31/us-plans-to-fight-off-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/) if Beijing were to attack.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington said: “China has never abandoned the use of force against Taiwan, and its continued military intimidation and grey-zone operations pose serious threats not only to Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability.”
US intelligence identified 2027 as the year that Mr Xi told his troops to be [prepared for an invasion](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/18/china-warns-trump-arms-sale-taiwan-bring-fire-united-states/) because it marks the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.
Next year also lies at the end of the Davidson Window, which is the timeframe between 2021 and 2027, during which military experts believe China could develop the capability to attempt to invade Taiwan.
Mr Xi has reportedly denied ever setting such a timeline, telling a US official in 2024 that there were “no such plans”.
Experts on Chinese affairs have also pointed out that the intelligence did not indicate when Beijing would launch the attack but rather when it would be ready to do so.
Peaceful reunification is not a new concept for China’s ambitions over Taiwan.
Beijing has long offered to govern Taiwan under a “one country, two systems” policy, which it technically has with Hong Kong.
This proposal has limited support in Taiwan.
On Wednesday, Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan affairs office, offered to provide the island with “stable and reliable energy and resource security” if it agreed to “peaceful reunification”.
He made the comment as nations were scrambling for alternative energy supplies during the [war in Iran](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/19/iran-war-latest-news-trump-qatar-energy-strikes/).
Taipei rejected the offer, with Ho Chin-tsang, Taiwan’s deputy economy minister, telling politicians that this proposal “is impossible” and part of China’s “cognitive warfare”.
Taiwan, which receives a third of its liquefied natural gas from Qatar, has said it has enough supply to last until the end of April and will be importing more oil from the US in June. |
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