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The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as US President Donald Trump has downplayed the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office. The Pentagon late last year said that the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by next year, the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.  # Chinese troops march during a military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3 last year. Photo: EPA “China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the US intelligence agencies said in the report. The US “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said. It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady, but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan. Beijing would almost certainly consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, the report said, listing factors such as “PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said. Chinese officials acknowledge that a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and risky, particularly if the US intervenes, it said. A conflict over Taiwan could disrupt US access to trade and critical semiconductors, unsettle global supply chains, and spark market turmoil, it said. “Even without Washington’s involvement, US and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets,” it said. In addition, a protracted war with the US risks unprecedented economic costs to the US, Chinese and global economies, it added. Beijing yesterday said that the US should “stop hyping” China as a threat. “The US should ... speak and act cautiously on the Taiwan issue,” should “correct their understanding of China and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian (林劍) told a news conference. In Taipei, a national security official yesterday said that while Beijing has pushed back its timetable for a potential attack on Taiwan, the threat remains far from over. Political interference and “united front” efforts are expected to continue, with China adjusting its expansion goals and timeline in line with evolving strategic conditions and realities on the ground, said the official on condition of anonymity. US intelligence assessments are ongoing and continuously updated, they said. For this year, the view that China might be delaying its timeline for an invasion of Taiwan rests on two main factors, they said. First, purges within the Chinese military over the past two years reflect deep-seated corruption and structural problems in command under an authoritarian system, they said, adding that the actions have also significantly undermined the PLA’s ability to integrate and develop joint combat capabilities. As the purges continue, their effects on equipment modernization, internal discipline and overall morale have forced Chinese decisionmakers to prioritize internal stability above all else, the official said. Second, in the past few months, several international conflicts have highlighted a stark gap between China’s vaunted military equipment and tactics, and the reality on the ground, they said. The shortfall has come as a major shock to the Chinese military and its top decisionmakers, as it underscores the potential outcomes if the PLA were to face US forces or comparable equipment in a conflict, they said. Meanwhile, the report said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response departed from the rhetoric of previous Japanese leaders. However, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara yesterday told a news conference that “the \[Japanese\] government’s position of judging an existential crisis situation with all the information it gathers is consistent with the past.” “The assessment that there has been a major shift is not accurate,” Kihara added. Additional reporting by AFP - [Most Popular**](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/Mostread) - [1Japan deploys long-range missiles close to China](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/01/2003854813) - [2New streamlined Taiwan Pass to go on sale today](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/01/2003854812) - [3Nexperia’s China unit nears fully local production of chips: company sources](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/04/03/2003854925) - [4Seoul to revise disputed e-arrival card, report says](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/04/01/2003854823) - [5China reserves offshore airspace for 40 days without explanation: WSJ](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/04/06/2003855129) - # You might also like - [ Japan deploys long-range missiles close to China 2026-04-01 Japan has deployed long-range missiles in a southwestern region near China, the Japanese defense minister said yesterday, at a time when ties with Beijing are at their lowest in recent years. The missiles were installed in Kumamoto in the southern region of Kyushu, as Japan is attempting to shore up its military capacity as China steps up naval activity in the East China Sea. “Standoff defense capabilities enable us to counter the threat of enemy forces attempting to invade our country ... while ensuring the safety of our personnel,” Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi said. “This is an extremely important initiative for](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/01/2003854813) - [ New streamlined Taiwan Pass to go on sale today 2026-04-01 MORE POPULAR: Taiwan Pass sales increased by 59 percent during the first quarter compared with the same period last year, the Tourism Administration said The Tourism Administration yesterday said that it has streamlined the Taiwan Pass, with two versions available for purchase beginning today. The tourism agency has made the pass available to international tourists since 2024, allowing them to access the high-speed rail, Taiwan Railway Corp services, four MRT systems and four Taiwan Tourist Shuttles. Previously, five types of Taiwan Pass were available, but some tourists have said that the offerings were too complicated. The agency said only two types of Taiwan Pass would be available, starting from a three-day pass with the high-speed rail and a three-day pass with Taiwan Railway Corp. The former costs NT\$2,800 By Shelley Shan](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/01/2003854812) - [ NDC report to forecast rapid population drop, sources say 2026-04-06 NEW LOW: The council in 2024 based predictions on a pessimistic estimate for the nation’s total fertility rate of 0.84, but last year that rate was 0.69, 17 percent lower An expected National Development Council (NDC) report expects the nation’s population to drop below 12 million by 2065, with the old-age dependency ratio to top 100 percent sooner than 2070, sources said yesterday. The council is slated to release its latest population projections in August, using an ultra-low fertility model, the sources said. The previous report projected that Taiwan’s population would fall to 14.37 million by 2070, but based on a new estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — the population is expected to reach 12 million by By Kao Chia-ho](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/06/2003855093) - [ US bill aims to protect Taiwan cables 2026-04-04 COUNTERING HOSTILITY: The draft bill would require the US to increase diplomatic pressure on China and would impose sanctions on those who sabotage undersea cable networks US lawmakers on Thursday introduced a bipartisan bill to bolster the resilience of Taiwan’s submarine cables to counter China’s hostile activities. The proposal, titled the critical undersea infrastructure resilience initiative act, was cosponsored by Republican representatives Mike Lawler and Greg Stanton, and Democratic Representative Dave Min. US Senators John Curtis and Jacky Rosen also introduced a companion bill in the US Senate, which has passed markup at the chamber’s Committee on Foreign Relations. The House’s version of the bill would prioritize the deployment of sensors to detect disruptions or potential sabotage in real-time and enhance early warning capabilities through global intelligence sharing frameworks, By Jonathan Chin](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/04/2003855000) -  - - [Front Page](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front) - [Taiwan News](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan) - [Business](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz) - [Editorial & Opinion](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials) - [Sports](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/sport) - [World News](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world) - [Features](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat) - [Bilingual Pages](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang) - - [About Us](https://www.taipeitimes.com/Service#AboutUs) - [Employment](https://www.taipeitimes.com/Service#Job) - [Contact Us](https://www.taipeitimes.com/Service#Contact) - [** RSS](https://www.taipeitimes.com/xml/index.rss) Copyright © 1999-2026 The Taipei Times. 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## ‘NO TIMELINE’: Political interference and other efforts are expected to continue, with Beijing adjusting its goals in line with conditions, a Taiwanese official said - By Su Yung-yao / Staff reporter, with Reuters and CNA - - [**](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=US+report+says+China+not+planning+2027+Taiwan+invasion+plan%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.taipeitimes.com%2FNews%2Ffront%2Farchives%2F2026%2F03%2F20%2F2003854137) - [**](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.taipeitimes.com%2FNews%2Ffront%2Farchives%2F2026%2F03%2F20%2F2003854137&t=US+report+says+China+not+planning+2027+Taiwan+invasion+plan) - [**](https://lineit.line.me/share/ui?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.taipeitimes.com%2FNews%2Ffront%2Farchives%2F2026%2F03%2F20%2F2003854137?utm_medium=P&utm_campaign=SHARE&utm_source=LINE) China does not plan to invade Taiwan next year and seeks to control the nation without the use of force, the US intelligence community said on Wednesday. The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as US President Donald Trump has downplayed the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office. The Pentagon late last year said that the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by next year, the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.  ## Chinese troops march during a military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3 last year. Photo: EPA “China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the US intelligence agencies said in the report. The US “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said. It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady, but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan. Beijing would almost certainly consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, the report said, listing factors such as “PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said. Chinese officials acknowledge that a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and risky, particularly if the US intervenes, it said. A conflict over Taiwan could disrupt US access to trade and critical semiconductors, unsettle global supply chains, and spark market turmoil, it said. “Even without Washington’s involvement, US and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets,” it said. In addition, a protracted war with the US risks unprecedented economic costs to the US, Chinese and global economies, it added. Beijing yesterday said that the US should “stop hyping” China as a threat. “The US should ... speak and act cautiously on the Taiwan issue,” should “correct their understanding of China and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian (林劍) told a news conference. In Taipei, a national security official yesterday said that while Beijing has pushed back its timetable for a potential attack on Taiwan, the threat remains far from over. Political interference and “united front” efforts are expected to continue, with China adjusting its expansion goals and timeline in line with evolving strategic conditions and realities on the ground, said the official on condition of anonymity. US intelligence assessments are ongoing and continuously updated, they said. For this year, the view that China might be delaying its timeline for an invasion of Taiwan rests on two main factors, they said. First, purges within the Chinese military over the past two years reflect deep-seated corruption and structural problems in command under an authoritarian system, they said, adding that the actions have also significantly undermined the PLA’s ability to integrate and develop joint combat capabilities. As the purges continue, their effects on equipment modernization, internal discipline and overall morale have forced Chinese decisionmakers to prioritize internal stability above all else, the official said. Second, in the past few months, several international conflicts have highlighted a stark gap between China’s vaunted military equipment and tactics, and the reality on the ground, they said. The shortfall has come as a major shock to the Chinese military and its top decisionmakers, as it underscores the potential outcomes if the PLA were to face US forces or comparable equipment in a conflict, they said. Meanwhile, the report said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response departed from the rhetoric of previous Japanese leaders. However, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara yesterday told a news conference that “the \[Japanese\] government’s position of judging an existential crisis situation with all the information it gathers is consistent with the past.” “The assessment that there has been a major shift is not accurate,” Kihara added. Additional reporting by AFP