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> James-Stein Estimator
What is the James-Stein Estimator?
Itâs common in statistics to take averages to make predictions. For example, the
sample mean
(the
average
score from all samples) is used as an estimator for the
population mean
.
James-Stein estimators
improve upon these averages by
shrinking
them towards a more central average. The technique is named after Charles Stein and Willard James, who simplified Steinâs original 1956 method.
Calculations
The basic steps are:
Calculate the sample mean (XĚ).
âShrinkâ individual scores towards (XĚ); Reduce larger values and increase smaller values.
Each of these individual shrunk values is a James-Stein estimator,
z.
The basic formula for the James-Stein estimator is:
z = xĚ + c(y â xĚ)
Where:
(y â xĚ) = difference between an individual score and the sample mean,
c = a shrinking factor.
Other formulas exist, but they all have the shrinking factor in common.
For example, instead of the sample mean you could use the mean from a
prior distribution
(
m
). In that case, yĚ could be replaced by
m
. The shrinking factorâs value is calculate after collecting the sample data and is given by the formula:
Where:
x = individual values,
xĚ = sample mean,
k = number of unknown means (must be 2 or more),
Ď
2
=
variance
.
The shrinking factorâs value should be less than 1. For example, a value of .3 would shrink values by about 70 percent.
James-Stein Estimators vs. Sample Means
The James-Stein estimator is a significant departure from the âtraditionalâ school of thought which states that the sample mean is the best estimator for the population mean. Stein and James proved that a better estimator than the âperfectâ estimator exists, which seems to be somewhat of a paradox. However, the James-Stein estimator outperforms the sample mean when there are
several
unknown population means â not just one. The means do not have to be related, so they have to be carefully chosen.
Combining completely unrelated means will give you a result â but it will be a nonsensical one.
Bradley Efron and Carl Morris (1977) offer the extreme example of combining batting averages in baseball and proportions of imported cars; You can calculate a mean for these, but it will make no sense at all.
References
Efron, B. and Morris, C. (1977), âSteinâs Paradox in Statistics.â Scientific American. 236 (5): 119â127
James, W., and Stein, C., (1961). âEstimation with Quadratic Loss.â Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium, Vol. 1 (Berkeley, California: University of California Press), pp. 361-379.
Stein C. (1956). âInadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a
multivariate normal distribution
â. Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability. Vol. 1. University of California Press; Berkeley, CA, USA: pp. 197â208
Comments? Need to post a correction?
Please
Contact Us
. |
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# James-Stein Estimator: Definition, Formulas
[Estimators](https://www.statisticshowto.com/estimator/) \> James-Stein Estimator
## What is the James-Stein Estimator?
Itâs common in statistics to take averages to make predictions. For example, the [sample mean](https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/statistics-definitions/sample-mean/) (the [average](https://www.statisticshowto.com/arithmetic-mean/) score from all samples) is used as an estimator for the [population mean](https://www.statisticshowto.com/population-mean/). **James-Stein estimators** improve upon these averages by [shrinking](https://www.statisticshowto.com/shrinkage-estimator/) them towards a more central average. The technique is named after Charles Stein and Willard James, who simplified Steinâs original 1956 method.
## Calculations
The basic steps are:
1. Calculate the sample mean (XĚ).
2. âShrinkâ individual scores towards (XĚ); Reduce larger values and increase smaller values. **Each of these individual shrunk values is a James-Stein estimator,** z.
The basic formula for the James-Stein estimator is:
**z = xĚ + c(y â xĚ)**
Where:
- (y â xĚ) = difference between an individual score and the sample mean,
- c = a shrinking factor.
**Other formulas exist, but they all have the shrinking factor in common.** For example, instead of the sample mean you could use the mean from a [prior distribution](https://www.statisticshowto.com/prior-distribution/) (*m*). In that case, yĚ could be replaced by *m*. The shrinking factorâs value is calculate after collecting the sample data and is given by the formula:
[](https://www.statisticshowto.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/shrinking-factor-james-stein-estimator.png)
Where:
- x = individual values,
- xĚ = sample mean,
- k = number of unknown means (must be 2 or more),
- Ď2 = [variance](https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/variance/).
The shrinking factorâs value should be less than 1. For example, a value of .3 would shrink values by about 70 percent.
## James-Stein Estimators vs. Sample Means
The James-Stein estimator is a significant departure from the âtraditionalâ school of thought which states that the sample mean is the best estimator for the population mean. Stein and James proved that a better estimator than the âperfectâ estimator exists, which seems to be somewhat of a paradox. However, the James-Stein estimator outperforms the sample mean when there are *several* unknown population means â not just one. The means do not have to be related, so they have to be carefully chosen. **Combining completely unrelated means will give you a result â but it will be a nonsensical one.** Bradley Efron and Carl Morris (1977) offer the extreme example of combining batting averages in baseball and proportions of imported cars; You can calculate a mean for these, but it will make no sense at all.
## References
Efron, B. and Morris, C. (1977), âSteinâs Paradox in Statistics.â Scientific American. 236 (5): 119â127
James, W., and Stein, C., (1961). âEstimation with Quadratic Loss.â Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium, Vol. 1 (Berkeley, California: University of California Press), pp. 361-379.
Stein C. (1956). âInadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a [multivariate normal distribution](https://www.statisticshowto.com/bivariate-normal-distribution/)â. Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability. Vol. 1. University of California Press; Berkeley, CA, USA: pp. 197â208
[Deterministic: Definition and Examples](https://www.statisticshowto.com/deterministic/)
[Shrinkage Estimator: Definition, Examples](https://www.statisticshowto.com/shrinkage-estimator/)
**Comments? Need to post a correction?** Please [***Contact Us***](https://www.statisticshowto.com/contact/).
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| Readable Markdown | [Estimators](https://www.statisticshowto.com/estimator/) \> James-Stein Estimator
## What is the James-Stein Estimator?
Itâs common in statistics to take averages to make predictions. For example, the [sample mean](https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/statistics-definitions/sample-mean/) (the [average](https://www.statisticshowto.com/arithmetic-mean/) score from all samples) is used as an estimator for the [population mean](https://www.statisticshowto.com/population-mean/). **James-Stein estimators** improve upon these averages by [shrinking](https://www.statisticshowto.com/shrinkage-estimator/) them towards a more central average. The technique is named after Charles Stein and Willard James, who simplified Steinâs original 1956 method.
## Calculations
The basic steps are:
1. Calculate the sample mean (XĚ).
2. âShrinkâ individual scores towards (XĚ); Reduce larger values and increase smaller values. **Each of these individual shrunk values is a James-Stein estimator,** z.
The basic formula for the James-Stein estimator is:
**z = xĚ + c(y â xĚ)**
Where:
- (y â xĚ) = difference between an individual score and the sample mean,
- c = a shrinking factor.
**Other formulas exist, but they all have the shrinking factor in common.** For example, instead of the sample mean you could use the mean from a [prior distribution](https://www.statisticshowto.com/prior-distribution/) (*m*). In that case, yĚ could be replaced by *m*. The shrinking factorâs value is calculate after collecting the sample data and is given by the formula:
[](https://www.statisticshowto.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/shrinking-factor-james-stein-estimator.png)
Where:
- x = individual values,
- xĚ = sample mean,
- k = number of unknown means (must be 2 or more),
- Ď2 = [variance](https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/variance/).
The shrinking factorâs value should be less than 1. For example, a value of .3 would shrink values by about 70 percent.
## James-Stein Estimators vs. Sample Means
The James-Stein estimator is a significant departure from the âtraditionalâ school of thought which states that the sample mean is the best estimator for the population mean. Stein and James proved that a better estimator than the âperfectâ estimator exists, which seems to be somewhat of a paradox. However, the James-Stein estimator outperforms the sample mean when there are *several* unknown population means â not just one. The means do not have to be related, so they have to be carefully chosen. **Combining completely unrelated means will give you a result â but it will be a nonsensical one.** Bradley Efron and Carl Morris (1977) offer the extreme example of combining batting averages in baseball and proportions of imported cars; You can calculate a mean for these, but it will make no sense at all.
## References
Efron, B. and Morris, C. (1977), âSteinâs Paradox in Statistics.â Scientific American. 236 (5): 119â127
James, W., and Stein, C., (1961). âEstimation with Quadratic Loss.â Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium, Vol. 1 (Berkeley, California: University of California Press), pp. 361-379.
Stein C. (1956). âInadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a [multivariate normal distribution](https://www.statisticshowto.com/bivariate-normal-distribution/)â. Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability. Vol. 1. University of California Press; Berkeley, CA, USA: pp. 197â208
**Comments? Need to post a correction?** Please [***Contact Us***](https://www.statisticshowto.com/contact/). |
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