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Meta TitleLG Chem, LG Energy Solution Outlook Revised To Ne | S&P Global Ratings
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We expect LG Chem Ltd. and its subsidiary LG Energy Solution Ltd. (LG EnSol) to continue to face operating hurdles over the next 12 months. The chemical business remains in a prolonged downcycle, while the sharp downturn in electric vehicle (EV) demand will likely continue to weigh on profitability. Operating losses in the EV battery and chemical divisions are likely to take time to recover. Nevertheless, LG EnSol's fast-growing energy storage system (ESS) business and reduced capital investment should partially alleviate current strains. On March 5, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its rating outlook on LG Chem and LG EnSol to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our long-term issuer and issue credit ratings on these companies at 'BBB'. The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could remain for longer than we currently expect. HONG KONG (S&P Global Ratings) March 5, 2026—S&P Global Ratings today took the ratings actions listed above. A challenging business environment continues to pressure LG Chem's performance.  The company's chemical business is likely to remain in a prolonged cyclical trough over the next 12 months, with its business risk profile weakening due to intensifying competition from large, integrated Chinese producers as well as persistent overcapacity and volatile trade conditions. Competition is likely to intensify after the completion of S-Oil Corp.'s Shaheen integrated oil refining and chemical complex in late 2026, given its likely cost advantages. Although LG Chem is pivoting toward higher-value specialty products, this segment will take time to achieve sufficient scale to fully mitigate structural weaknesses in commodity chemicals. Given the absence of a near-term meaningful turnaround in the chemical segment, we expect profit contribution from LG Ensol to remain high over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, a significant downturn in EV demand will pressure LG EnSol's profitability.  We expect the company's EV battery sales to decline by more than 20% in 2026 with operating losses widening, due to weaker-than-expected demand following the expiry of U.S. consumer tax credits for EVs. Ford Motor Co.'s cancellation of its Europe contract and Ultium Cell LLC (joint venture with General Motors Co.) plant's six-month shutdown are likely to materially lower LG EnSol's utilization rates. Our base-case assumptions incorporate a gradual recovery in the U.S. market and production resumption at the Ultium Cell plant in the second half of 2026. However, the demand slowdown could persist and auto original equipment manufacturers could reassess production plans and investments in EVs. The fast-growing ESS business could help mitigate current strains.  We expect LG EnSol's ESS revenue to grow strongly over the next two years, supported by high utilization and robust demand, particularly from the surging power needs for data centers. U.S. policy restrictions on supply chains involving Chinese producers have enabled LG EnSol to secure sizable ESS orders and expand its market share. We forecast LG EnSol will generate 10%-16% operating profit margin from ESS. The company will likely continue to benefit from production incentives granted for building U.S. battery plants and strengthening supply chains that exclude prohibited foreign entities. That will offset the weak profitability from its EV battery business. As such, our base case assumes EBITDA of LG Chem and LG EnSol to gradually improve over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, the ESS business remains exposed to earnings volatility, as shorter contract tenors make it more difficult to fully pass through raw material cost fluctuations into contract pricing on a timely basis. In addition, policy uncertainty and project execution delays may further shroud earnings visibility. Reduced investments and financial flexibility could provide some buffer.  We forecast LG EnSol's capital expenditure (capex) to decline substantially to about Korean won (KRW) 6 trillion in 2026 and KRW4 trillion in 2027, from KRW10 trillion-KRW12 trillion annually in 2024-2025, because large projects have been mostly completed. In addition, LG EnSol is using its existing capacity to expand its ESS manufacturing base. Therefore, additional investments would be limited. LG Chem's nonstrategic asset sales and price return swap contract (where it sold stake of about 2.4% in LG EnSol) in 2025, provided some financial buffer. Also, LG EnSol sold its U.S. factory building and assets to its joint-venture partner, Honda Motor Co., to strengthen its financial metrics amid the market slowdown. In our view, LG Chem and LG EnSol will prioritize deleveraging with a disciplined financial policy in 2026-2027. We expect LG Chem's adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to stay above its downside threshold of 3.5x in 2026. Nevertheless, we forecast LG Chem's leverage to improve to 3.1x in 2027, backed by margin recovery, reduced capex, and asset sales. Our ratings on LG EnSol will remain equalized with those on LG Chem.  We view LG EnSol as a core subsidiary of the group. In our view, the company will continue to be key to the group's strategy because the battery business is a major part of LG Chem's effort to diversify its earnings streams outside the commodity chemical industry. The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could lead to LG Chem's weaker credit measures than we currently expect. This could be due to continued overcapacity in chemicals sector, steep decline in EV sales in the U.S. market, delays in ESS project execution, and fluctuations in input costs and demand. The negative outlook on LG EnSol mirrors the outlook on its parent LG Chem. We may lower the ratings on LG Chem and LG EnSol if the companies face a much slower demand for EV batteries, unexpected glitch in ESS ramp-up, and continuing severe oversupply in the chemical business over the next one to two years. Such a scenario could hurt profitability and cash flows with deteriorating leverage metrics. An indication of this would be LG Chem's debt-to-EBITDA ratio remaining above 3.5x on a sustained basis. We may lower the rating on LG EnSol if we downgrade LG Chem. Separately, we may revise down our assessment of LG EnSol's 'bbb' stand-alone credit profile if we estimate the company's debt-to-EBTIDA ratio does not improve to below 3.5x. Such a scenario could result from delays in recovery of EV battery demand. This could also result from the delays in ESS projection execution. We may revise the outlook to stable for both companies if we assess a higher likelihood that LG Chem's ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDA will improve to below 3.5x over the next one to two years. This could arise from significant divestment of its assets, material recovery in profitability with petrochemical and EV demand, or much stronger ESS demand than our expectation. Related Criteria Criteria | Corporates | General: Sector-Specific Corporate Methodology , July 7, 2025 Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities , Jan. 7, 2024 Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology , Jan. 7, 2024 General Criteria: Environmental, Social, And Governance Principles In Credit Ratings , Oct. 10, 2021 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology , July 1, 2019 Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments , April 1, 2019 Criteria | Corporates | General: Reflecting Subordination Risk In Corporate Issue Ratings , March 28, 2018 Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers , Dec. 16, 2014 General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk , Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions , Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings , Feb. 16, 2011 General Criteria: Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating , Oct. 1, 2010 Related Research The U.S. Changes Policies, The Korean Battery Firms Change Strategy , Nov. 18, 2025 LG Energy Solution Ltd. , Nov. 19, 2025 LG Chem Ltd.'s Proposed U.S. Dollar-Denominated Exchangeable Bonds Rated 'BBB' , May 15, 2025 Research Update: LG Chem, LG Energy Solution Downgraded To 'BBB' On High Investments, Weak Battery Demand; Outlook Stable , March 4, 2025 Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/ratings-criteria for further information. A description of each of S&P Global Ratings' rating categories is contained in "S&P Global Ratings Definitions" at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/504352. Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings referenced herein can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.spglobal.com/ratings. European Endorsement Status Global-scale credit rating(s) issued by S&P Global Ratings' affiliates based in the following jurisdictions [ To read more, visit Endorsement of Credit Ratings ] have been endorsed into the EU and/or the UK in accordance with the relevant CRA regulations. Note: Endorsements for U.S. Public Finance global-scale credit ratings are done per request. To review the endorsement status by credit rating, visit the spglobal.com/ratings website and search for the rated entity. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. 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As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.spglobal.com/ratings (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.spglobal.com/usratingsfees . Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. 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[![logo]()](https://www.spglobal.com/en) [Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en) [Recent Articles]() [RATING\_ACTION LG Chem, LG Energy Solution Outlook Revised To Negative On Persistent Profitability Pressure; 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed]() [RATING\_ACTION Itochu Corp.'s Proposed U.S. Dollar-Denominated Straight Bonds Rated 'A'](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3546474) [RATING\_ACTION Sealed Air Corp. Downgraded To 'B+' Following Acquisition By CD\&R; Removed From CreditWatch; Outlook Stable](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3546297) [RATING\_ACTION Eastman Kodak Co. Outlook Revised To Stable On Deleveraging And Maturity Extension, 'CCC+' Rating Affirmed](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3546285) [RATING\_ACTION Lifepoint Health Inc.'s Proposed Secured Notes Rated 'B' (Recovery Rating:'3')](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3546257) - 05-Mar-2026 \| 03:47 EST # LG Chem, LG Energy Solution Outlook Revised To Negative On Persistent Profitability Pressure; 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed [View Analyst Contact Information]() [Table of Contents]()[\+]() [Overview]() [Related Criteria]() [Related Research]() #### - We expect LG Chem Ltd. and its subsidiary LG Energy Solution Ltd. (LG EnSol) to continue to face operating hurdles over the next 12 months. The chemical business remains in a prolonged downcycle, while the sharp downturn in electric vehicle (EV) demand will likely continue to weigh on profitability. - Operating losses in the EV battery and chemical divisions are likely to take time to recover. Nevertheless, LG EnSol's fast-growing energy storage system (ESS) business and reduced capital investment should partially alleviate current strains. - On March 5, 2026, S\&P Global Ratings revised its rating outlook on LG Chem and LG EnSol to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our long-term issuer and issue credit ratings on these companies at 'BBB'. - The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could remain for longer than we currently expect. #### HONG KONG (S\&P Global Ratings) March 5, 2026—S\&P Global Ratings today took the ratings actions listed above. A challenging business environment continues to pressure LG Chem's performance. The company's chemical business is likely to remain in a prolonged cyclical trough over the next 12 months, with its business risk profile weakening due to intensifying competition from large, integrated Chinese producers as well as persistent overcapacity and volatile trade conditions. Competition is likely to intensify after the completion of S-Oil Corp.'s Shaheen integrated oil refining and chemical complex in late 2026, given its likely cost advantages. Although LG Chem is pivoting toward higher-value specialty products, this segment will take time to achieve sufficient scale to fully mitigate structural weaknesses in commodity chemicals. Given the absence of a near-term meaningful turnaround in the chemical segment, we expect profit contribution from LG Ensol to remain high over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, a significant downturn in EV demand will pressure LG EnSol's profitability. We expect the company's EV battery sales to decline by more than 20% in 2026 with operating losses widening, due to weaker-than-expected demand following the expiry of U.S. consumer tax credits for EVs. Ford Motor Co.'s cancellation of its Europe contract and Ultium Cell LLC (joint venture with General Motors Co.) plant's six-month shutdown are likely to materially lower LG EnSol's utilization rates. Our base-case assumptions incorporate a gradual recovery in the U.S. market and production resumption at the Ultium Cell plant in the second half of 2026. However, the demand slowdown could persist and auto original equipment manufacturers could reassess production plans and investments in EVs. The fast-growing ESS business could help mitigate current strains. We expect LG EnSol's ESS revenue to grow strongly over the next two years, supported by high utilization and robust demand, particularly from the surging power needs for data centers. U.S. policy restrictions on supply chains involving Chinese producers have enabled LG EnSol to secure sizable ESS orders and expand its market share. We forecast LG EnSol will generate 10%-16% operating profit margin from ESS. The company will likely continue to benefit from production incentives granted for building U.S. battery plants and strengthening supply chains that exclude prohibited foreign entities. That will offset the weak profitability from its EV battery business. As such, our base case assumes EBITDA of LG Chem and LG EnSol to gradually improve over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, the ESS business remains exposed to earnings volatility, as shorter contract tenors make it more difficult to fully pass through raw material cost fluctuations into contract pricing on a timely basis. In addition, policy uncertainty and project execution delays may further shroud earnings visibility. Reduced investments and financial flexibility could provide some buffer. We forecast LG EnSol's capital expenditure (capex) to decline substantially to about Korean won (KRW) 6 trillion in 2026 and KRW4 trillion in 2027, from KRW10 trillion-KRW12 trillion annually in 2024-2025, because large projects have been mostly completed. In addition, LG EnSol is using its existing capacity to expand its ESS manufacturing base. Therefore, additional investments would be limited. LG Chem's nonstrategic asset sales and price return swap contract (where it sold stake of about 2.4% in LG EnSol) in 2025, provided some financial buffer. Also, LG EnSol sold its U.S. factory building and assets to its joint-venture partner, Honda Motor Co., to strengthen its financial metrics amid the market slowdown. In our view, LG Chem and LG EnSol will prioritize deleveraging with a disciplined financial policy in 2026-2027. We expect LG Chem's adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to stay above its downside threshold of 3.5x in 2026. Nevertheless, we forecast LG Chem's leverage to improve to 3.1x in 2027, backed by margin recovery, reduced capex, and asset sales. Our ratings on LG EnSol will remain equalized with those on LG Chem. We view LG EnSol as a core subsidiary of the group. In our view, the company will continue to be key to the group's strategy because the battery business is a major part of LG Chem's effort to diversify its earnings streams outside the commodity chemical industry. #### The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could lead to LG Chem's weaker credit measures than we currently expect. This could be due to continued overcapacity in chemicals sector, steep decline in EV sales in the U.S. market, delays in ESS project execution, and fluctuations in input costs and demand. The negative outlook on LG EnSol mirrors the outlook on its parent LG Chem. ##### We may lower the ratings on LG Chem and LG EnSol if the companies face a much slower demand for EV batteries, unexpected glitch in ESS ramp-up, and continuing severe oversupply in the chemical business over the next one to two years. Such a scenario could hurt profitability and cash flows with deteriorating leverage metrics. An indication of this would be LG Chem's debt-to-EBITDA ratio remaining above 3.5x on a sustained basis. We may lower the rating on LG EnSol if we downgrade LG Chem. Separately, we may revise down our assessment of LG EnSol's 'bbb' stand-alone credit profile if we estimate the company's debt-to-EBTIDA ratio does not improve to below 3.5x. Such a scenario could result from delays in recovery of EV battery demand. This could also result from the delays in ESS projection execution. ##### We may revise the outlook to stable for both companies if we assess a higher likelihood that LG Chem's ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDA will improve to below 3.5x over the next one to two years. This could arise from significant divestment of its assets, material recovery in profitability with petrochemical and EV demand, or much stronger ESS demand than our expectation. #### Related Criteria - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Sector-Specific Corporate Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101633823), July 7, 2025 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12848757), Jan. 7, 2024 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Corporate Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12913251), Jan. 7, 2024 - [General Criteria: Environmental, Social, And Governance Principles In Credit Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12085396), Oct. 10, 2021 - [General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10999747), July 1, 2019 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10906146), April 1, 2019 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Reflecting Subordination Risk In Corporate Issue Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10486915), March 28, 2018 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8956570), Dec. 16, 2014 - [General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8304862), Nov. 19, 2013 - [General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8313032), Nov. 19, 2013 - [General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6485398), Feb. 16, 2011 - [General Criteria: Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6219375), Oct. 1, 2010 #### Related Research - [The U.S. Changes Policies, The Korean Battery Firms Change Strategy](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101653182), Nov. 18, 2025 - [LG Energy Solution Ltd.](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101656638), Nov. 19, 2025 - [LG Chem Ltd.'s Proposed U.S. Dollar-Denominated Exchangeable Bonds Rated 'BBB'](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101624192), May 15, 2025 - [Research Update: LG Chem, LG Energy Solution Downgraded To 'BBB' On High Investments, Weak Battery Demand; Outlook Stable](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101615343), March 4, 2025 #### Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/ratings-criteria for further information. A description of each of S\&P Global Ratings' rating categories is contained in "S\&P Global Ratings Definitions" at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/504352. Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings referenced herein can be found on S\&P Global Ratings' public website at www.spglobal.com/ratings. **European Endorsement Status** Global-scale credit rating(s) issued by S\&P Global Ratings' affiliates based in the following jurisdictions \[[To read more, visit Endorsement of Credit Ratings](https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/100011227)\] have been endorsed into the EU and/or the UK in accordance with the relevant CRA regulations. Note: Endorsements for U.S. Public Finance global-scale credit ratings are done per request. To review the endorsement status by credit rating, visit the spglobal.com/ratings website and search for the rated entity. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S\&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S\&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S\&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S\&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S\&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. 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Readable Markdown
- We expect LG Chem Ltd. and its subsidiary LG Energy Solution Ltd. (LG EnSol) to continue to face operating hurdles over the next 12 months. The chemical business remains in a prolonged downcycle, while the sharp downturn in electric vehicle (EV) demand will likely continue to weigh on profitability. - Operating losses in the EV battery and chemical divisions are likely to take time to recover. Nevertheless, LG EnSol's fast-growing energy storage system (ESS) business and reduced capital investment should partially alleviate current strains. - On March 5, 2026, S\&P Global Ratings revised its rating outlook on LG Chem and LG EnSol to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our long-term issuer and issue credit ratings on these companies at 'BBB'. - The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could remain for longer than we currently expect. HONG KONG (S\&P Global Ratings) March 5, 2026—S\&P Global Ratings today took the ratings actions listed above. A challenging business environment continues to pressure LG Chem's performance. The company's chemical business is likely to remain in a prolonged cyclical trough over the next 12 months, with its business risk profile weakening due to intensifying competition from large, integrated Chinese producers as well as persistent overcapacity and volatile trade conditions. Competition is likely to intensify after the completion of S-Oil Corp.'s Shaheen integrated oil refining and chemical complex in late 2026, given its likely cost advantages. Although LG Chem is pivoting toward higher-value specialty products, this segment will take time to achieve sufficient scale to fully mitigate structural weaknesses in commodity chemicals. Given the absence of a near-term meaningful turnaround in the chemical segment, we expect profit contribution from LG Ensol to remain high over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, a significant downturn in EV demand will pressure LG EnSol's profitability. We expect the company's EV battery sales to decline by more than 20% in 2026 with operating losses widening, due to weaker-than-expected demand following the expiry of U.S. consumer tax credits for EVs. Ford Motor Co.'s cancellation of its Europe contract and Ultium Cell LLC (joint venture with General Motors Co.) plant's six-month shutdown are likely to materially lower LG EnSol's utilization rates. Our base-case assumptions incorporate a gradual recovery in the U.S. market and production resumption at the Ultium Cell plant in the second half of 2026. However, the demand slowdown could persist and auto original equipment manufacturers could reassess production plans and investments in EVs. The fast-growing ESS business could help mitigate current strains. We expect LG EnSol's ESS revenue to grow strongly over the next two years, supported by high utilization and robust demand, particularly from the surging power needs for data centers. U.S. policy restrictions on supply chains involving Chinese producers have enabled LG EnSol to secure sizable ESS orders and expand its market share. We forecast LG EnSol will generate 10%-16% operating profit margin from ESS. The company will likely continue to benefit from production incentives granted for building U.S. battery plants and strengthening supply chains that exclude prohibited foreign entities. That will offset the weak profitability from its EV battery business. As such, our base case assumes EBITDA of LG Chem and LG EnSol to gradually improve over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, the ESS business remains exposed to earnings volatility, as shorter contract tenors make it more difficult to fully pass through raw material cost fluctuations into contract pricing on a timely basis. In addition, policy uncertainty and project execution delays may further shroud earnings visibility. Reduced investments and financial flexibility could provide some buffer. We forecast LG EnSol's capital expenditure (capex) to decline substantially to about Korean won (KRW) 6 trillion in 2026 and KRW4 trillion in 2027, from KRW10 trillion-KRW12 trillion annually in 2024-2025, because large projects have been mostly completed. In addition, LG EnSol is using its existing capacity to expand its ESS manufacturing base. Therefore, additional investments would be limited. LG Chem's nonstrategic asset sales and price return swap contract (where it sold stake of about 2.4% in LG EnSol) in 2025, provided some financial buffer. Also, LG EnSol sold its U.S. factory building and assets to its joint-venture partner, Honda Motor Co., to strengthen its financial metrics amid the market slowdown. In our view, LG Chem and LG EnSol will prioritize deleveraging with a disciplined financial policy in 2026-2027. We expect LG Chem's adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to stay above its downside threshold of 3.5x in 2026. Nevertheless, we forecast LG Chem's leverage to improve to 3.1x in 2027, backed by margin recovery, reduced capex, and asset sales. Our ratings on LG EnSol will remain equalized with those on LG Chem. We view LG EnSol as a core subsidiary of the group. In our view, the company will continue to be key to the group's strategy because the battery business is a major part of LG Chem's effort to diversify its earnings streams outside the commodity chemical industry. The negative outlook reflects the risk that weakness in chemicals and EV battery demand could lead to LG Chem's weaker credit measures than we currently expect. This could be due to continued overcapacity in chemicals sector, steep decline in EV sales in the U.S. market, delays in ESS project execution, and fluctuations in input costs and demand. The negative outlook on LG EnSol mirrors the outlook on its parent LG Chem. We may lower the ratings on LG Chem and LG EnSol if the companies face a much slower demand for EV batteries, unexpected glitch in ESS ramp-up, and continuing severe oversupply in the chemical business over the next one to two years. Such a scenario could hurt profitability and cash flows with deteriorating leverage metrics. An indication of this would be LG Chem's debt-to-EBITDA ratio remaining above 3.5x on a sustained basis. We may lower the rating on LG EnSol if we downgrade LG Chem. Separately, we may revise down our assessment of LG EnSol's 'bbb' stand-alone credit profile if we estimate the company's debt-to-EBTIDA ratio does not improve to below 3.5x. Such a scenario could result from delays in recovery of EV battery demand. This could also result from the delays in ESS projection execution. We may revise the outlook to stable for both companies if we assess a higher likelihood that LG Chem's ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDA will improve to below 3.5x over the next one to two years. This could arise from significant divestment of its assets, material recovery in profitability with petrochemical and EV demand, or much stronger ESS demand than our expectation. #### Related Criteria - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Sector-Specific Corporate Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101633823), July 7, 2025 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12848757), Jan. 7, 2024 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Corporate Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12913251), Jan. 7, 2024 - [General Criteria: Environmental, Social, And Governance Principles In Credit Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/12085396), Oct. 10, 2021 - [General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10999747), July 1, 2019 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10906146), April 1, 2019 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Reflecting Subordination Risk In Corporate Issue Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/10486915), March 28, 2018 - [Criteria \| Corporates \| General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8956570), Dec. 16, 2014 - [General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8304862), Nov. 19, 2013 - [General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/8313032), Nov. 19, 2013 - [General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6485398), Feb. 16, 2011 - [General Criteria: Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6219375), Oct. 1, 2010 #### Related Research - [The U.S. Changes Policies, The Korean Battery Firms Change Strategy](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101653182), Nov. 18, 2025 - [LG Energy Solution Ltd.](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101656638), Nov. 19, 2025 - [LG Chem Ltd.'s Proposed U.S. Dollar-Denominated Exchangeable Bonds Rated 'BBB'](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101624192), May 15, 2025 - [Research Update: LG Chem, LG Energy Solution Downgraded To 'BBB' On High Investments, Weak Battery Demand; Outlook Stable](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101615343), March 4, 2025 Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. 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