🕷️ Crawler Inspector

[Skip to main content](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hastened-the-syrian-war/#main) [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/) March 2, 2015 3 min read [ Add Us On GoogleAdd SciAm](https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=scientificamerican.com) # Climate Change Hastened Syria's Civil War Human-induced drying in many societies can push tensions over a threshold that provokes violent conflict By [Mark Fischetti](https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/mark-fischetti/) Join Our Community of Science Lovers\! Sign Up for Our Free Daily Newsletter *** ## On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by [subscribing](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/). By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. *** Climate change can [make storms stronger](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/10/30/did-climate-change-cause-hurricane-sandy/), cold spells longer and water supplies drier. But can it cause war? [A new study](http://www.pnas.org/) published today in *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* says drought in Syria, exacerbated to record levels by global warming, pushed social unrest in that nation across a line into an open uprising in 2011. The conflict has since become a [major civil war](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fall-of-ancient-empire-linked-to-crisis-in-syria/) with international involvement. Drying and drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011—the worst on record there—destroyed agriculture, causing many farm families to migrate to cities. The influx added to social stresses already created by refugees pouring in from the war in Iraq, explains Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who co-authored the study. The drought also pushed up food prices, aggravating poverty. “We’re not saying the drought caused the war,” Seager said. “We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict. And a drought of that severity was made much more likely by the ongoing human-driven drying of that region.” Seager added that the entire Middle East “faces a drier, hotter climate due to climate change. This will stress water resources and agriculture, and will likely further increase risk of conflict.” Global warming is desiccating the region in two ways: higher temperatures that increase evaporation in already parched soils, and weaker winds that bring less rain from the Mediterranean Sea during the wet season (November to April). A number of [research efforts](http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6151/1235367.abstract?sid=652b3be8-1226-4d4c-b499-47ed360459bc) in recent years have suggested that warmer temperatures and drought [increase the risk](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-climate-change-cause-conflict/) of violent conflict around the world. A 2009 study found that over the past 30 years in sub-Saharan Africa, temperature rise correlated with an increase in the likelihood of civil war. A 2011 study implicated climate change in pushing up food prices in Egypt, fueling [revolution there](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/02/01/are-high-food-prices-fueling-revolution-in-egypt/). Trouble related to drought in the Middle East may get worse. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that human effects on climate change will make the area drier than it would have become without the manmade influences. The U.S. Defense Department is taking the warning seriously. It issued a report last November declaring climate change a "threat multiplier” that will impact national security. When *Scientific American* asked Seager if his group’s research supports that point of view he said, “Yes. It does. Climate change is very much a cause of concern for national, regional and international security and this study makes clear how that can work. The Syrian war has now taken on a life of its own…however, a drought made worse by climate change was one important factor that initiated the social unraveling.” Colin Kelley, a climatologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who led the work while finishing his doctorate at Lamont-Doherty, concurred, but was also careful to state that severe droughts can have a catalytic effect and contribute to, but not cause, civil unrest. Although snowstorms and rising sea levels garner more of the headlines about extreme weather driven by climate change, drought is quickly rising as the most troublesome, near-term impact. Another paper in *PNAS* suggests links between global warming and the terrible, ongoing drought in California. Although civil unrest is far less likely there, tension is indeed growing between political leaders in northern and southern California over who gets the increasingly scarce water from rivers, underground aquifers and snow melt, all of which are declining. [Rights & Permissions](https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?publisherName=sciam&publication=sciam&title=Climate+Change+Hastened+Syria%27s+Civil+War&publicationDate=2015-03-02&contentID=74A215AC-9B9A-4746-B6AF3E4043CC8BE0&orderBeanReset=true&author=Mark+Fischetti&copyright=Copyright+2015+Scientific+American%2C+Inc.) **[Mark Fischetti](https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/mark-fischetti/)** was a senior editor at *Scientific American* for nearly 20 years and covered sustainability issues, including climate, environment, energy, and more. He assigned and edited feature articles and news by journalists and scientists and also wrote in those formats. He was founding managing editor of two spin-off magazines: *Scientific American Mind* and *Scientific American Earth 3.0*. His 2001 article “[Drowning New Orleans](https://www.scientificamerican.com/issue/sa/2001/10-01)” predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. Fischetti has written as a freelancer for the *New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian* and many other outlets. He co-authored the book *Weaving the Web* with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored *The New Killer Diseases* with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti has a physics degree and has twice served as Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union’s Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism. He has appeared on NBC’s *Meet the Press,* CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many radio stations. [More by Mark Fischetti](https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/mark-fischetti/) ## It’s Time to Stand Up for Science If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history. I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too. If you [subscribe to Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/), you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized. In return, you get essential news, [captivating podcasts](https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcasts/), brilliant infographics, [can't-miss newsletters](https://www.scientificamerican.com/newsletters/), must-watch videos, [challenging games](https://www.scientificamerican.com/games/), and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even [gift someone a subscription](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/gift/). There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.  Thank you, David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American [Subscribe](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=display&utm_term=eic_stand_up_for_science) Subscribe to *Scientific American* to learn and share the most exciting discoveries, innovations and ideas shaping our world today. [Subscription Plans](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/)[Give a Gift Subscription](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/gift/) - **Explore SciAm** - [Latest Issue](https://www.scientificamerican.com/latest-issue/) - [News](https://www.scientificamerican.com/) - [Opinion](https://www.scientificamerican.com/opinion/) - [Newsletters](https://www.scientificamerican.com/newsletters/) - [Podcasts](https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcasts/) - [Games](https://www.scientificamerican.com/games/) - [Travel](https://www.scientificamerican.com/travel/) - **Company** - [About](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/about-scientific-american/) - [Press Room](https://www.scientificamerican.com/pressroom/) - [FAQs](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/frequently-asked-questions/subscriptions-products/) - [Contact Us](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/contact-us/customer-service/) - [Standards & Ethics](https://www.scientificamerican.com/standards-and-ethics/) - [International Editions](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/international/) - [Advertise](https://www.scientificamerican.com/mediakit/) - **More** - [Accessibility](https://www.scientificamerican.com/accessibility-statement/) - [Terms of Use](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/terms-of-use/) - [Privacy Policy](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/privacy-policy/) - [US State Privacy Rights](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/us-state-privacy-rights/) - [Use of cookies/Do not sell my data](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hastened-the-syrian-war/) - [Return & Refund Policy](https://www.scientificamerican.com/page/return-refund-policy/) Scientific American is part of Springer Nature, which owns or has commercial relations with thousands of scientific publications (many of them can be found at www.springernature.com/us). Scientific American maintains a strict policy of editorial independence in reporting developments in science to our readers. © 2026 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, A DIVISION OF SPRINGER NATURE AMERICA, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Human-induced drying in many societies can push tensions over a threshold that provokes violent conflict By [Mark Fischetti](https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/mark-fischetti/) Join Our Community of Science Lovers\! *** ## On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by [subscribing](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/). By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. *** Climate change can [make storms stronger](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/10/30/did-climate-change-cause-hurricane-sandy/), cold spells longer and water supplies drier. But can it cause war? [A new study](http://www.pnas.org/) published today in *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* says drought in Syria, exacerbated to record levels by global warming, pushed social unrest in that nation across a line into an open uprising in 2011. The conflict has since become a [major civil war](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fall-of-ancient-empire-linked-to-crisis-in-syria/) with international involvement. Drying and drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011—the worst on record there—destroyed agriculture, causing many farm families to migrate to cities. The influx added to social stresses already created by refugees pouring in from the war in Iraq, explains Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who co-authored the study. The drought also pushed up food prices, aggravating poverty. “We’re not saying the drought caused the war,” Seager said. “We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict. And a drought of that severity was made much more likely by the ongoing human-driven drying of that region.” Seager added that the entire Middle East “faces a drier, hotter climate due to climate change. This will stress water resources and agriculture, and will likely further increase risk of conflict.” Global warming is desiccating the region in two ways: higher temperatures that increase evaporation in already parched soils, and weaker winds that bring less rain from the Mediterranean Sea during the wet season (November to April). A number of [research efforts](http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6151/1235367.abstract?sid=652b3be8-1226-4d4c-b499-47ed360459bc) in recent years have suggested that warmer temperatures and drought [increase the risk](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-climate-change-cause-conflict/) of violent conflict around the world. A 2009 study found that over the past 30 years in sub-Saharan Africa, temperature rise correlated with an increase in the likelihood of civil war. A 2011 study implicated climate change in pushing up food prices in Egypt, fueling [revolution there](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/02/01/are-high-food-prices-fueling-revolution-in-egypt/). Trouble related to drought in the Middle East may get worse. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that human effects on climate change will make the area drier than it would have become without the manmade influences. The U.S. Defense Department is taking the warning seriously. It issued a report last November declaring climate change a "threat multiplier” that will impact national security. When *Scientific American* asked Seager if his group’s research supports that point of view he said, “Yes. It does. Climate change is very much a cause of concern for national, regional and international security and this study makes clear how that can work. The Syrian war has now taken on a life of its own…however, a drought made worse by climate change was one important factor that initiated the social unraveling.” Colin Kelley, a climatologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who led the work while finishing his doctorate at Lamont-Doherty, concurred, but was also careful to state that severe droughts can have a catalytic effect and contribute to, but not cause, civil unrest. Although snowstorms and rising sea levels garner more of the headlines about extreme weather driven by climate change, drought is quickly rising as the most troublesome, near-term impact. Another paper in *PNAS* suggests links between global warming and the terrible, ongoing drought in California. Although civil unrest is far less likely there, tension is indeed growing between political leaders in northern and southern California over who gets the increasingly scarce water from rivers, underground aquifers and snow melt, all of which are declining. ## It’s Time to Stand Up for Science If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history. I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too. If you [subscribe to Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/), you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized. In return, you get essential news, [captivating podcasts](https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcasts/), brilliant infographics, [can't-miss newsletters](https://www.scientificamerican.com/newsletters/), must-watch videos, [challenging games](https://www.scientificamerican.com/games/), and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even [gift someone a subscription](https://www.scientificamerican.com/getsciam/gift/). There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.