🕷️ Crawler Inspector

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Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 23 (from laksa001)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa023.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.science.org/content/article/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.science.org/content/article/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense","crawl_time":1769036537,"first_indexed_time":1724405993,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"org,science!www,\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense s443","src_root_hash":"18350995765413815023","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Why is COVID-19 surging again—and do shots still make sense? | Science | AAAS","meta_descriptions":[],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"When U.S. sprinter Noah Lyles was upset in a race this month at the Paris Olympics, weakened by COVID-19 and earning only a bronze medal, the coronavirus that once stopped the world made headlines again. But the coverage also underscored that SARS-CoV-2 has become yesterday’s news—barely more interesting than the flu or the common cold unless it affects sports, a politician, or a celebrity.\nStill, the big summer surge of COVID-19 that hit Lyles is also a reminder that the disease has not yet lost its ability to cause major outbreaks—and kill thousands—despite increased populationwide immunity from repeated vaccinations and infections. “Over and over again this virus has proven that it’s very clever at evolving to infect large numbers of people,” says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology.\nGauging the scope of this summer’s outbreak is difficult because most countries have stopped routine reporting of cases. But wastewater testing for SARS-CoV-2 genes still offers an indicator. Data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that in the United States,\nvirus levels\non 10 August were at their highest point since 13 January and still climbing.\nOther countries\nreported similar summer spikes in waste-water. In the\nUnited Kingdom\n, the percentage of polymerase chain reaction tests that came back positive for SARS-CoV-2 peaked on 14 July at a level last seen in October 2023.\nWhat’s causing this summer wave, and what does it portend?\nScience\nasked COVID-19 researchers these and other pressing questions.\nWhy is COVID-19 surging now?\nThe two main factors in the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 are the emergence of new viral variants that escape immune responses, and waning immunity from previous exposure to the virus and vaccines. It’s “really hard” to disentangle the two, says Sam Scarpino, a computational biologist at Northeastern University who specializes in analyzing complex systems. But studies suggest waning immunity is less of a problem than the virus’ shapeshifting abilities.\nThe SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating today are all members of a strain called Omicron, first identified by South African researchers in November 2021. The virus has evolved a great deal since then, most notably with the emergence in\nAugust 2023\nof BA.2.86 and its descendant\nJN.1\n. Those lineages differ from previously circulating Omicron strains by more than 30 mutations in the viral surface protein known as spike, allowing the variants to “escape” existing immunity. “It clearly no longer makes sense to call them Omicron because they’re so different,” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research.\nResearch shows most people in the U.S. still have strong antibody and T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2, though they many not be strong enough to prevent illness or slow spread.\nFor example, a study in the 11 July issue of\nNature Communications\nshowed that among some 55,000 people in New York City whose blood has been tested since the start of the pandemic, more than 90% by 2022 had antibodies to the virus, which persisted at moderate to high levels through the last sampling of participants in October 2023. But JN.1 and subsequent variants have broken through that immunity, says Viviana Simon, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and lead author of the paper.\nIs human behavior driving this surge?\nWe don’t really know. Some scientists have speculated brutal heat waves and humidity in Europe and the U.S. make people spend more time indoors—with the air conditioning on—where the virus spreads far better than outside. That memories of the pandemic have receded clearly plays a role as well, says University of Oxford epidemiologist Christopher Dye. The public has “no appetite” for any restrictions that would slow transmission, he says, and few people still wear masks. “Many people are not particularly bothered about getting it, and they’re not bothering to test,” Dye says.\nAre severe disease and deaths from COVID-19 declining?\nYes—they have been for several years. In the U.S.,\nCOVID-19 deaths\n peaked at nearly 26,000 a week in January 2021, the month a wide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines began. U.S.\nhospitalizations\nreached a peak 1 year later at 35.4 per 100,000 people, after the highly transmissible Omicron had burst onto the scene, causing record numbers of infections. During the current surge, the U.S. is seeing about 600 deaths a week, and only four people per 100,000 are hospitalized each week. Similar trends have occurred\nglobally\n.\n“We’re\nmuch better off\nnow than a few years ago. But obviously, where we all want to be is to not get sick anymore, and so this summer has definitely been disappointing,” Crotty says. COVID-19 “can be quite a nasty disease still,” Dye adds. “And then there’s the question of Long Covid, which people are still not thinking hard enough about.”\nDo COVID-19 booster shots still make sense?\nIn June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration\nadvised\nvaccinemakers to manufacture boosters based on JN.1 and, “if feasible,” its descendant KP.2, which is now circulating widely. The shots should be available next month. But newer strains will likely circulate this fall, and Ira Longini, a biostatisican at the Univeristy of Florida, says people should not expect the boosters to protect them from infection—though he believes they will reduce the risk of severe disease for people who haven’t had COVID-19 or been boosted recently. “If you’re frail or worried you have an underlying condition, or you’re old, the booster makes sense,” Longini says. Roskilde University epidemiologist Lone Simonsen agrees, but is circumspect about boosting in younger, healthy people. “There’s so little severe disease that I don’t see the point in going and getting this vaccine every year,” she says.\nAndersen, however, advocates a booster for anyone who hasn’t had a vaccine or an infection in 6 months. “I do think that people are looking at this a little too casually,” he says. “This is not a benign virus. Even if you don’t end up dying, it’s not great being sick and infecting others, and the potential effects of Long Covid are real.”\nAre vaccines that provide better protection on the horizon?\nThere’s wide agreement that we need them. “We’re making vaccines against the variants that are going to be gone in 3 months by the time the vaccines are out, without much of a clue of where the virus is headed,” Scarpino says. “And so we’re going to be in this loop basically forever.”\nA new generation of vaccines might offer a better way out. A company named Codagenix is just completing a phase 3 study of a novel vaccine that contains a live, weakened version of SARS-CoV-2. Squirted into the nose, the hope is the vaccine will create mucosal immunity at the portal of entry. “That’s the only potential game changer I see on the horizon,” Longini says.\nOther researchers are hoping to develop COVID-19 vaccines that protect even against variants that have yet to emerge by combining pieces of related but widely divergent coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-1 and viruses found in bats and pangolins. “This is the kind of research we really need to quickly invest heavily in,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, whose group published a road map to develop COVID-19 vaccines that trigger broader immune responses. “If we had different vaccines, we could do a lot more.”\nWill COVID-19 become a seasonal disease, like flu?\nSeveral infectious diseases\nwax and wane\nwith the seasons, and many scientists expect that COVID-19 will eventually fall into a winter pattern, like influenza and some other viral respiratory diseases. So far, that hasn’t happened. “People keep asking about whether this is a seasonal virus, and my answer is: Yes, the seasonal virus that occurs in every season,” Osterholm jokes.\nStill, Andersen sees a biseasonal pattern emerging in the U.S. and Europe. COVID-19 cases are now concentrated in winter and summer waves, and the latter seems to have started later this year than in 2023. The start of the next winter season “is probably going to be pushing into November, early December,” Andersen says. “Maybe next year there will be 7 months between waves, and then it will be 8 months and so on.” If that pattern continues, the summer wave would eventually disappear.\nBut disease seasonality is a poorly understood phenomenon, and Micaela Martinez, an infectious disease ecologist at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, says the interplay between human immunity and SARS-CoV-2 evolution is still very dynamic. “You have new variants popping up over a certain time frame, which then could lock into a seasonality,” she says. But she has no idea whether that will occur in 10 years or 100 years from now. “That remains to be seen.”","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to main content](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#main-content-focus)\n\n- [news](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news)\n- [careers](https:\/\/www.science.org\/careers)\n- [commentary](https:\/\/www.science.org\/commentary)\n- [Journals](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journals)\n\n[![](https:\/\/www.science.org\/pb-assets\/images\/styleguide\/logo-dark-1672180581427.svg) ![Science](https:\/\/www.science.org\/pb-assets\/images\/styleguide\/logo-1672180580750.svg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/)\n\n- [Log in](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/ssostart?redirectUri=%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2Fwhy-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense)\n- [Become A Member](https:\/\/promo.aaas.org\/science\/join\/?CTC=SMHPJN)\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/ce70d779-babe-474b-bf8a-dac5fac45e2f\/science.2026.391.issue-6782.cover.gif)science](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/science \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/e566ebbd-d9d9-4cac-988c-d12905e2d83f\/sciadv.2026.12.issue-4.cover.gif)science advances](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/sciadv \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/cba30519-96c0-495c-9947-985829095f0c\/sciimmunol.2026.11.issue-115.cover.gif)science immunology](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/sciimmunol \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/1333ca1b-6bc8-4d65-ab59-8dbf5853a774\/scirobotics.2026.11.issue-110.cover.gif)science robotics](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/scirobotics \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/2610723a-6c19-4439-8c13-f3aaa9a746a3\/signaling.2026.19.issue-921.cover.gif)science signaling](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/signaling \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/ddf0f849-fce1-4ea1-93b3-8a24d56a9777\/stm.2026.18.issue-833.cover.gif)science translational medicine](https:\/\/www.science.org\/journal\/stm \"Science\")\n\n[![journal-menu-img](https:\/\/www.science.org\/pb-assets\/images\/styleguide\/spj-cover-1695403298717.png)science partner journals](https:\/\/spj.science.org\/ \"Science Partner Journals\")\n\nSearching:\n\nAnywhere\n\n[Anywhere](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-0)[Science](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-1)[Science Advances](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-2)[Science Immunology](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-3)[Science Robotics](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-4)[Science Signaling](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-5)[Science Translational Medicine](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense#quick-search-form-9ea9b667-c3ce-40d1-870b-f7e001bbac01-6)\n\n[Advanced Search](https:\/\/www.science.org\/search\/advanced)\n\nSearch\n\n###### Trending Terms:\n- [cancer](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/doSearch?AllField=cancer)\n- [climate](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/doSearch?AllField=climate)\n- [artificial intelligence](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/doSearch?AllField=artificial%20intelligence)\n- [postdoc](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/doSearch?AllField=postdoc)\n- [aging](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/doSearch?AllField=aging)\n\n- [Log In](https:\/\/www.science.org\/action\/ssostart?redirectUri=\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense)\n\n- [Become A Member](https:\/\/promo.aaas.org\/science\/join\/?CTC=SMLDJN)\n- [Donate](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news\/donate?intcmp=sitemenu-donate&utm_id=recB0g01G48yiGSBD)\n\n[science.org](https:\/\/www.science.org\/)\n\n- [news](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news)\n  - 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But the coverage also underscored that SARS-CoV-2 has become yesterday’s news—barely more interesting than the flu or the common cold unless it affects sports, a politician, or a celebrity.\n\nStill, the big summer surge of COVID-19 that hit Lyles is also a reminder that the disease has not yet lost its ability to cause major outbreaks—and kill thousands—despite increased populationwide immunity from repeated vaccinations and infections. “Over and over again this virus has proven that it’s very clever at evolving to infect large numbers of people,” says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology.\n\nGauging the scope of this summer’s outbreak is difficult because most countries have stopped routine reporting of cases. But wastewater testing for SARS-CoV-2 genes still offers an indicator. Data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that in the United States, [virus levels](https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#wastewater-surveillance) on 10 August were at their highest point since 13 January and still climbing. [Other countries](https:\/\/data.who.int\/dashboards\/covid19\/wastewater) reported similar summer spikes in waste-water. In the [United Kingdom](https:\/\/ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk\/topics\/covid-19#cases), the percentage of polymerase chain reaction tests that came back positive for SARS-CoV-2 peaked on 14 July at a level last seen in October 2023.\n\nWhat’s causing this summer wave, and what does it portend? Science asked COVID-19 researchers these and other pressing questions.\n\n## Why is COVID-19 surging now?\nThe two main factors in the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 are the emergence of new viral variants that escape immune responses, and waning immunity from previous exposure to the virus and vaccines. It’s “really hard” to disentangle the two, says Sam Scarpino, a computational biologist at Northeastern University who specializes in analyzing complex systems. But studies suggest waning immunity is less of a problem than the virus’ shapeshifting abilities.\n\nThe SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating today are all members of a strain called Omicron, first identified by South African researchers in November 2021. The virus has evolved a great deal since then, most notably with the emergence in [August 2023](https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/mmwr\/volumes\/72\/wr\/mm7243a2.htm) of BA.2.86 and its descendant [JN.1](http:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/09022024_jn.1_ure.pdf?sfvrsn=a153518c_3#:~:text=09%20January%202023-,JN.,2024%2C%20there%20were%2079107%20JN.). Those lineages differ from previously circulating Omicron strains by more than 30 mutations in the viral surface protein known as spike, allowing the variants to “escape” existing immunity. “It clearly no longer makes sense to call them Omicron because they’re so different,” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research.\n\n#### Advertisement\nResearch shows most people in the U.S. still have strong antibody and T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2, though they many not be strong enough to prevent illness or slow spread.\n\nFor example, a study in the 11 July issue of [Nature Communications](https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-50052-2) showed that among some 55,000 people in New York City whose blood has been tested since the start of the pandemic, more than 90% by 2022 had antibodies to the virus, which persisted at moderate to high levels through the last sampling of participants in October 2023. But JN.1 and subsequent variants have broken through that immunity, says Viviana Simon, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and lead author of the paper.\n\n## Is human behavior driving this surge?\nWe don’t really know. Some scientists have speculated brutal heat waves and humidity in Europe and the U.S. make people spend more time indoors—with the air conditioning on—where the virus spreads far better than outside. That memories of the pandemic have receded clearly plays a role as well, says University of Oxford epidemiologist Christopher Dye. The public has “no appetite” for any restrictions that would slow transmission, he says, and few people still wear masks. “Many people are not particularly bothered about getting it, and they’re not bothering to test,” Dye says.\n\n## Are severe disease and deaths from COVID-19 declining?\nYes—they have been for several years. In the U.S., [COVID-19 deaths](https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#deaths-landing) peaked at nearly 26,000 a week in January 2021, the month a wide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines began. U.S. [hospitalizations](https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations-landing) reached a peak 1 year later at 35.4 per 100,000 people, after the highly transmissible Omicron had burst onto the scene, causing record numbers of infections. During the current surge, the U.S. is seeing about 600 deaths a week, and only four people per 100,000 are hospitalized each week. Similar trends have occurred [globally](https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-50052-2).\n\n“We’re [much better off](https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-024-07748-8) now than a few years ago. But obviously, where we all want to be is to not get sick anymore, and so this summer has definitely been disappointing,” Crotty says. COVID-19 “can be quite a nasty disease still,” Dye adds. “And then there’s the question of Long Covid, which people are still not thinking hard enough about.”\n\n## Do COVID-19 booster shots still make sense?\nIn June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration [advised](https:\/\/www.fda.gov\/emergency-preparedness-and-response\/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19\/covid-19-vaccines-2023-2024) vaccinemakers to manufacture boosters based on JN.1 and, “if feasible,” its descendant KP.2, which is now circulating widely. The shots should be available next month. But newer strains will likely circulate this fall, and Ira Longini, a biostatisican at the Univeristy of Florida, says people should not expect the boosters to protect them from infection—though he believes they will reduce the risk of severe disease for people who haven’t had COVID-19 or been boosted recently. “If you’re frail or worried you have an underlying condition, or you’re old, the booster makes sense,” Longini says. Roskilde University epidemiologist Lone Simonsen agrees, but is circumspect about boosting in younger, healthy people. “There’s so little severe disease that I don’t see the point in going and getting this vaccine every year,” she says.\n\nAndersen, however, advocates a booster for anyone who hasn’t had a vaccine or an infection in 6 months. “I do think that people are looking at this a little too casually,” he says. “This is not a benign virus. Even if you don’t end up dying, it’s not great being sick and infecting others, and the potential effects of Long Covid are real.”\n\n## Are vaccines that provide better protection on the horizon?\nThere’s wide agreement that we need them. “We’re making vaccines against the variants that are going to be gone in 3 months by the time the vaccines are out, without much of a clue of where the virus is headed,” Scarpino says. “And so we’re going to be in this loop basically forever.”\n\nA new generation of vaccines might offer a better way out. A company named Codagenix is just completing a phase 3 study of a novel vaccine that contains a live, weakened version of SARS-CoV-2. Squirted into the nose, the hope is the vaccine will create mucosal immunity at the portal of entry. “That’s the only potential game changer I see on the horizon,” Longini says.\n\nOther researchers are hoping to develop COVID-19 vaccines that protect even against variants that have yet to emerge by combining pieces of related but widely divergent coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-1 and viruses found in bats and pangolins. “This is the kind of research we really need to quickly invest heavily in,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, whose group published a road map to develop COVID-19 vaccines that trigger broader immune responses. “If we had different vaccines, we could do a lot more.”\n\n## Will COVID-19 become a seasonal disease, like flu?\nSeveral infectious diseases [wax and wane](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19) with the seasons, and many scientists expect that COVID-19 will eventually fall into a winter pattern, like influenza and some other viral respiratory diseases. So far, that hasn’t happened. “People keep asking about whether this is a seasonal virus, and my answer is: Yes, the seasonal virus that occurs in every season,” Osterholm jokes.\n\nStill, Andersen sees a biseasonal pattern emerging in the U.S. and Europe. COVID-19 cases are now concentrated in winter and summer waves, and the latter seems to have started later this year than in 2023. The start of the next winter season “is probably going to be pushing into November, early December,” Andersen says. “Maybe next year there will be 7 months between waves, and then it will be 8 months and so on.” If that pattern continues, the summer wave would eventually disappear.\n\nBut disease seasonality is a poorly understood phenomenon, and Micaela Martinez, an infectious disease ecologist at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, says the interplay between human immunity and SARS-CoV-2 evolution is still very dynamic. “You have new variants popping up over a certain time frame, which then could lock into a seasonality,” she says. But she has no idea whether that will occur in 10 years or 100 years from now. “That remains to be seen.”\n***\n\ndoi: 10.1126\/science.zq18n4k\n\n#### Relevant tags:\n[Health](https:\/\/www.science.org\/topic\/category\/health \"Health\") [Coronavirus](https:\/\/www.science.org\/topic\/tags\/coronavirus \"Coronavirus\")\n## About the author\n![Jon Cohen](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/9779500a-8ab7-467f-a5e7-ae58dba08222\/cohen-0007.jpg)\n\n#### [Jon Cohen](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/author\/jon-cohen)\n[mail](mailto:jcohen@aaas.org \"mail\")\n##### Author\nJon Cohen, senior correspondent with Science, earned his B.A. in science writing from the University of California San Diego. He can be reached on Signal at bval31.65 and on Bluesky at @cohenjon.bsky.social.\n\n[View more](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense)\n## More from news\n[![riverside rock shelter in central Spain](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/c4c73904-f29b-448e-b8cf-e9fa7b45c074\/_20260121_on_stone_tools_lede.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/ice-age-europeans-imported-tools-distant-lands-perhaps-souvenirs \"Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs\")\n\n21 Jan 2026\n\n[Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/ice-age-europeans-imported-tools-distant-lands-perhaps-souvenirs \"Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs\")\n\nBy\n\n- Andrew Curry\n\n[![Illustration of scientist and politician in lab, scientist is speaking into lab glass and politician has hand to ear as though listening](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/5f32eaad-15c5-42a3-baec-f5c37fd6bf44\/_20260122nf_trump_resistance_preview.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/age-trump-are-u-s-scientists-bringing-white-papers-gunfight \"In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?\")\n\n21 Jan 2026\n\n[In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/age-trump-are-u-s-scientists-bringing-white-papers-gunfight \"In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?\")\n\nBy\n\n- David Malakoff\n\n[![Fossil specimen of Prototaxites taiti](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/d14d73e4-397c-43dd-9705-f97918a08f3f\/_20260121_on_prototaxite_1216.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/bizarre-400-million-year-old-fossil-was-unknown-life-form \"Bizarre 400-million-year-old fossil was an unknown life form\")\n\n21 Jan 2026\n\n[Bizarre 400-million-year-old fossil was an unknown life form](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/bizarre-400-million-year-old-fossil-was-unknown-life-form \"Bizarre 400-million-year-old fossil was an unknown life form\")\n\nBy\n\n- Erik Stokstad\n\n[View more](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news\/all-news)\n\nGot a tip for Science's news department?   [Connect](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/page\/got-tip)\n\n### Sign up for ScienceAdviser\nGet Science’s award-winning newsletter with the latest news, commentary, and research, free to your inbox daily.\n\n[Subscribe](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/page\/scienceadviser?intcmp=rrail-adviser&utm_id=recFUzjFNRznSEEDd)\n\n## ScienceInsider\n[![A busy Real de Guadalupe street](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/8d6cb5fa-4c3a-4a48-84f6-aa22674b8a1a\/_20251121_nid_mexico_gene_study.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/trove-mexican-genomes-could-help-guide-prescribing-decisions \"Trove of Mexican genomes could help guide prescribing decisions\")\n\n21 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Jennie Erin Smith\n\n[Trove of Mexican genomes could help guide prescribing decisions](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/trove-mexican-genomes-could-help-guide-prescribing-decisions \"Trove of Mexican genomes could help guide prescribing decisions\")\n\n[![Painters refurbish the NASA logo](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/51335a4b-5e87-4af2-99f3-6874116cab88\/_20260120_on_nasa_advisory_groups.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/nasa-ends-support-planetary-science-advisory-groups \"NASA ends support for planetary science advisory groups\")\n\n20 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Paul Voosen\n\n[NASA ends support for planetary science advisory groups](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/nasa-ends-support-planetary-science-advisory-groups \"NASA ends support for planetary science advisory groups\")\n\n[![Rendering of the MAVEN craft over Mars](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/6a8ee6b7-bd06-459e-b44d-1099a2eb3ebb\/_20260120_on_maven_mars.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/nasa-making-last-ditch-attempt-contact-tumbling-mars-orbiter \"NASA is making last-ditch attempt to contact tumbling Mars orbiter\")\n\n20 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Hannah Richter\n\n[NASA is making last-ditch attempt to contact tumbling Mars orbiter](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/nasa-making-last-ditch-attempt-contact-tumbling-mars-orbiter \"NASA is making last-ditch attempt to contact tumbling Mars orbiter\")\n\n[![The historic Building 1 on the NIH campus](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/782654f8-9c3c-4224-85c0-cfb23f3eb48d\/_20260120_on_nih_budgetjpg.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/final-funding-bill-nih-pushes-back-against-trump-cuts \"Final funding bill for NIH pushes back against Trump cuts\")\n\n20 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Jocelyn Kaiser\n\n[Final funding bill for NIH pushes back against Trump cuts](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/final-funding-bill-nih-pushes-back-against-trump-cuts \"Final funding bill for NIH pushes back against Trump cuts\")\n\n[View more](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news\/scienceinsider)\n\n## Sifter\n[![fMRI image of preteen brain](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/6f3fa20c-bfd8-4a2b-8660-95871cc9a84f\/_sf_brainmapping.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/flaw-brain-mapping-technique-may-undercut-neuroscience-findings \"Flaw in brain-mapping technique may undercut neuroscience findings\")\n\n16 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Catherine Offord\n\n[Flaw in brain-mapping technique may undercut neuroscience findings](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/flaw-brain-mapping-technique-may-undercut-neuroscience-findings \"Flaw in brain-mapping technique may undercut neuroscience findings\")\n\n[![Ground rosettes](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/09c8cf4d-d2a8-4e48-9d8c-1353bc15a850\/arabidopsis_thaliana_sifter.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/plants-cope-stress-touching-each-other \"Plants cope with stress by touching each other\")\n\n15 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Claudia Steiner\n\n[Plants cope with stress by touching each other](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/plants-cope-stress-touching-each-other \"Plants cope with stress by touching each other\")\n\n[![A plastic bag for biohazard waste](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/22c8c5d9-6e09-432f-a5fb-0e6abf5558b9\/_sf_labsafety.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/leading-ai-models-miss-dangerous-lab-risks \"Leading AI models miss dangerous lab risks\")\n\n15 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Celina Zhao\n\n[Leading AI models miss dangerous lab risks](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/leading-ai-models-miss-dangerous-lab-risks \"Leading AI models miss dangerous lab risks\")\n\n[![Galápagos sea lion](https:\/\/www.science.org\/cms\/asset\/043732cc-6747-47a2-b90f-19c2ac923a19\/_sf_sealion.jpg)](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/some-nursing-sea-lions-it-s-never-too-old-mom \"For some nursing sea lions, it’s never too old for mom\")\n\n13 Jan 2026\n\nBy\n\n- Alessio Cozzolino\n\n[For some nursing sea lions, it’s never too old for mom](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/some-nursing-sea-lions-it-s-never-too-old-mom \"For some nursing sea lions, it’s never too old for mom\")\n\n[View more](https:\/\/www.science.org\/news\/sifter)\n\n## Recommended[Close](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense)\nIn Depth\n\nApril 2020\n\n[Vaccine designers take first shots at COVID-19](https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/full\/10.1126\/science.368.6486.14 \"Vaccine designers take first shots at COVID-19\")\n\nEditorial\n\nMay 2020\n\n[COVID-19 amidst Ebola's retreat](https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/full\/10.1126\/science.abc4859 \"COVID-19 amidst Ebola's retreat\")\n\nEditorial\n\nJune 2020\n\n[COVID-19 and flu, a perfect storm](https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/full\/10.1126\/science.abd2220 \"COVID-19 and flu, a perfect storm\")\n\nEditorial\n\nJuly 2020\n\n[COVID-19 and the next influenza 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Boilerpipe Text	When U.S. sprinter Noah Lyles was upset in a race this month at the Paris Olympics, weakened by COVID-19 and earning only a bronze medal, the coronavirus that once stopped the world made headlines again. But the coverage also underscored that SARS-CoV-2 has become yesterday’s news—barely more interesting than the flu or the common cold unless it affects sports, a politician, or a celebrity. Still, the big summer surge of COVID-19 that hit Lyles is also a reminder that the disease has not yet lost its ability to cause major outbreaks—and kill thousands—despite increased populationwide immunity from repeated vaccinations and infections. “Over and over again this virus has proven that it’s very clever at evolving to infect large numbers of people,” says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. Gauging the scope of this summer’s outbreak is difficult because most countries have stopped routine reporting of cases. But wastewater testing for SARS-CoV-2 genes still offers an indicator. Data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that in the United States, virus levels on 10 August were at their highest point since 13 January and still climbing. Other countries reported similar summer spikes in waste-water. In the United Kingdom , the percentage of polymerase chain reaction tests that came back positive for SARS-CoV-2 peaked on 14 July at a level last seen in October 2023. What’s causing this summer wave, and what does it portend? Science asked COVID-19 researchers these and other pressing questions. Why is COVID-19 surging now? The two main factors in the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 are the emergence of new viral variants that escape immune responses, and waning immunity from previous exposure to the virus and vaccines. It’s “really hard” to disentangle the two, says Sam Scarpino, a computational biologist at Northeastern University who specializes in analyzing complex systems. But studies suggest waning immunity is less of a problem than the virus’ shapeshifting abilities. The SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating today are all members of a strain called Omicron, first identified by South African researchers in November 2021. The virus has evolved a great deal since then, most notably with the emergence in August 2023 of BA.2.86 and its descendant JN.1 . Those lineages differ from previously circulating Omicron strains by more than 30 mutations in the viral surface protein known as spike, allowing the variants to “escape” existing immunity. “It clearly no longer makes sense to call them Omicron because they’re so different,” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research. Research shows most people in the U.S. still have strong antibody and T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2, though they many not be strong enough to prevent illness or slow spread. For example, a study in the 11 July issue of Nature Communications showed that among some 55,000 people in New York City whose blood has been tested since the start of the pandemic, more than 90% by 2022 had antibodies to the virus, which persisted at moderate to high levels through the last sampling of participants in October 2023. But JN.1 and subsequent variants have broken through that immunity, says Viviana Simon, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and lead author of the paper. Is human behavior driving this surge? We don’t really know. Some scientists have speculated brutal heat waves and humidity in Europe and the U.S. make people spend more time indoors—with the air conditioning on—where the virus spreads far better than outside. That memories of the pandemic have receded clearly plays a role as well, says University of Oxford epidemiologist Christopher Dye. The public has “no appetite” for any restrictions that would slow transmission, he says, and few people still wear masks. “Many people are not particularly bothered about getting it, and they’re not bothering to test,” Dye says. Are severe disease and deaths from COVID-19 declining? Yes—they have been for several years. In the U.S., COVID-19 deaths peaked at nearly 26,000 a week in January 2021, the month a wide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines began. U.S. hospitalizations reached a peak 1 year later at 35.4 per 100,000 people, after the highly transmissible Omicron had burst onto the scene, causing record numbers of infections. During the current surge, the U.S. is seeing about 600 deaths a week, and only four people per 100,000 are hospitalized each week. Similar trends have occurred globally . “We’re much better off now than a few years ago. But obviously, where we all want to be is to not get sick anymore, and so this summer has definitely been disappointing,” Crotty says. COVID-19 “can be quite a nasty disease still,” Dye adds. “And then there’s the question of Long Covid, which people are still not thinking hard enough about.” Do COVID-19 booster shots still make sense? In June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration advised vaccinemakers to manufacture boosters based on JN.1 and, “if feasible,” its descendant KP.2, which is now circulating widely. The shots should be available next month. But newer strains will likely circulate this fall, and Ira Longini, a biostatisican at the Univeristy of Florida, says people should not expect the boosters to protect them from infection—though he believes they will reduce the risk of severe disease for people who haven’t had COVID-19 or been boosted recently. “If you’re frail or worried you have an underlying condition, or you’re old, the booster makes sense,” Longini says. Roskilde University epidemiologist Lone Simonsen agrees, but is circumspect about boosting in younger, healthy people. “There’s so little severe disease that I don’t see the point in going and getting this vaccine every year,” she says. Andersen, however, advocates a booster for anyone who hasn’t had a vaccine or an infection in 6 months. “I do think that people are looking at this a little too casually,” he says. “This is not a benign virus. Even if you don’t end up dying, it’s not great being sick and infecting others, and the potential effects of Long Covid are real.” Are vaccines that provide better protection on the horizon? There’s wide agreement that we need them. “We’re making vaccines against the variants that are going to be gone in 3 months by the time the vaccines are out, without much of a clue of where the virus is headed,” Scarpino says. “And so we’re going to be in this loop basically forever.” A new generation of vaccines might offer a better way out. A company named Codagenix is just completing a phase 3 study of a novel vaccine that contains a live, weakened version of SARS-CoV-2. Squirted into the nose, the hope is the vaccine will create mucosal immunity at the portal of entry. “That’s the only potential game changer I see on the horizon,” Longini says. Other researchers are hoping to develop COVID-19 vaccines that protect even against variants that have yet to emerge by combining pieces of related but widely divergent coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-1 and viruses found in bats and pangolins. “This is the kind of research we really need to quickly invest heavily in,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, whose group published a road map to develop COVID-19 vaccines that trigger broader immune responses. “If we had different vaccines, we could do a lot more.” Will COVID-19 become a seasonal disease, like flu? Several infectious diseases wax and wane with the seasons, and many scientists expect that COVID-19 will eventually fall into a winter pattern, like influenza and some other viral respiratory diseases. So far, that hasn’t happened. “People keep asking about whether this is a seasonal virus, and my answer is: Yes, the seasonal virus that occurs in every season,” Osterholm jokes. Still, Andersen sees a biseasonal pattern emerging in the U.S. and Europe. COVID-19 cases are now concentrated in winter and summer waves, and the latter seems to have started later this year than in 2023. The start of the next winter season “is probably going to be pushing into November, early December,” Andersen says. “Maybe next year there will be 7 months between waves, and then it will be 8 months and so on.” If that pattern continues, the summer wave would eventually disappear. But disease seasonality is a poorly understood phenomenon, and Micaela Martinez, an infectious disease ecologist at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, says the interplay between human immunity and SARS-CoV-2 evolution is still very dynamic. “You have new variants popping up over a certain time frame, which then could lock into a seasonality,” she says. But she has no idea whether that will occur in 10 years or 100 years from now. “That remains to be seen.”
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[Back To ScienceInsider](https://www.science.org/news/scienceinsider) - [ScienceInsider](https://www.science.org/news/scienceinsider "ScienceInsider") - [Health](https://www.science.org/topic/category/health) # Why is COVID-19 surging again—and do shots still make sense? ## New variants keep eluding human immunity but hospitalizations and deaths are far below earlier peaks - 21 Aug 2024 - 12:05 PM ET - By[Jon Cohen](https://www.science.org/content/author/jon-cohen "Jon Cohen") ![Noah Lyles recovering after winning bronze medal while racing with COVID-19](https://www.science.org/cms/asset/5326f404-48e8-4e3c-9d96-0e89bdc73f35/_20240823_nid_covid_seasonality_lyles.jpg) Noah Lyles won bronze in the men’s 200 meters during the Paris Olympic Games, despite having COVID-19.KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS Share: - [Facebook](https://www.science.org/#facebook "Facebook") - [Share on X](https://www.science.org/#twitter "Share on X") - [Linked In](https://www.science.org/#linkedin "Linked In") - [Reddit](https://www.science.org/#reddit "Reddit") - [Wechat](https://www.science.org/#wechat "Wechat") - [Whatsapp](https://www.science.org/#whatsapp "Whatsapp") - [Email](https://www.science.org/#email "Email") ![issue cover image](https://www.science.org/cms/asset/f5242bac-4973-4b55-b529-e80dcd16ebdf/science.2024.385.issue-6711.cover.gif) [Table of contents](https://www.science.org/toc/science/385/6711) A version of this story appeared in Science, Vol 385, Issue 6711.[Download PDF](https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.ads6028) When U.S. sprinter Noah Lyles was upset in a race this month at the Paris Olympics, weakened by COVID-19 and earning only a bronze medal, the coronavirus that once stopped the world made headlines again. But the coverage also underscored that SARS-CoV-2 has become yesterday’s news—barely more interesting than the flu or the common cold unless it affects sports, a politician, or a celebrity. Still, the big summer surge of COVID-19 that hit Lyles is also a reminder that the disease has not yet lost its ability to cause major outbreaks—and kill thousands—despite increased populationwide immunity from repeated vaccinations and infections. “Over and over again this virus has proven that it’s very clever at evolving to infect large numbers of people,” says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. Gauging the scope of this summer’s outbreak is difficult because most countries have stopped routine reporting of cases. But wastewater testing for SARS-CoV-2 genes still offers an indicator. Data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that in the United States, [virus levels](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance) on 10 August were at their highest point since 13 January and still climbing. [Other countries](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/wastewater) reported similar summer spikes in waste-water. In the [United Kingdom](https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/topics/covid-19#cases), the percentage of polymerase chain reaction tests that came back positive for SARS-CoV-2 peaked on 14 July at a level last seen in October 2023. What’s causing this summer wave, and what does it portend? Science asked COVID-19 researchers these and other pressing questions. ## Why is COVID-19 surging now? The two main factors in the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 are the emergence of new viral variants that escape immune responses, and waning immunity from previous exposure to the virus and vaccines. It’s “really hard” to disentangle the two, says Sam Scarpino, a computational biologist at Northeastern University who specializes in analyzing complex systems. But studies suggest waning immunity is less of a problem than the virus’ shapeshifting abilities. The SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating today are all members of a strain called Omicron, first identified by South African researchers in November 2021. The virus has evolved a great deal since then, most notably with the emergence in [August 2023](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7243a2.htm) of BA.2.86 and its descendant [JN.1](http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/09022024_jn.1_ure.pdf?sfvrsn=a153518c_3#:~:text=09%20January%202023-,JN.,2024%2C%20there%20were%2079107%20JN.). Those lineages differ from previously circulating Omicron strains by more than 30 mutations in the viral surface protein known as spike, allowing the variants to “escape” existing immunity. “It clearly no longer makes sense to call them Omicron because they’re so different,” says Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research. #### Advertisement Research shows most people in the U.S. still have strong antibody and T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2, though they many not be strong enough to prevent illness or slow spread. For example, a study in the 11 July issue of [Nature Communications](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50052-2) showed that among some 55,000 people in New York City whose blood has been tested since the start of the pandemic, more than 90% by 2022 had antibodies to the virus, which persisted at moderate to high levels through the last sampling of participants in October 2023. But JN.1 and subsequent variants have broken through that immunity, says Viviana Simon, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and lead author of the paper. ## Is human behavior driving this surge? We don’t really know. Some scientists have speculated brutal heat waves and humidity in Europe and the U.S. make people spend more time indoors—with the air conditioning on—where the virus spreads far better than outside. That memories of the pandemic have receded clearly plays a role as well, says University of Oxford epidemiologist Christopher Dye. The public has “no appetite” for any restrictions that would slow transmission, he says, and few people still wear masks. “Many people are not particularly bothered about getting it, and they’re not bothering to test,” Dye says. ## Are severe disease and deaths from COVID-19 declining? Yes—they have been for several years. In the U.S., [COVID-19 deaths](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#deaths-landing) peaked at nearly 26,000 a week in January 2021, the month a wide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines began. U.S. [hospitalizations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations-landing) reached a peak 1 year later at 35.4 per 100,000 people, after the highly transmissible Omicron had burst onto the scene, causing record numbers of infections. During the current surge, the U.S. is seeing about 600 deaths a week, and only four people per 100,000 are hospitalized each week. Similar trends have occurred [globally](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50052-2). “We’re [much better off](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07748-8) now than a few years ago. But obviously, where we all want to be is to not get sick anymore, and so this summer has definitely been disappointing,” Crotty says. COVID-19 “can be quite a nasty disease still,” Dye adds. “And then there’s the question of Long Covid, which people are still not thinking hard enough about.” ## Do COVID-19 booster shots still make sense? In June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration [advised](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-2023-2024) vaccinemakers to manufacture boosters based on JN.1 and, “if feasible,” its descendant KP.2, which is now circulating widely. The shots should be available next month. But newer strains will likely circulate this fall, and Ira Longini, a biostatisican at the Univeristy of Florida, says people should not expect the boosters to protect them from infection—though he believes they will reduce the risk of severe disease for people who haven’t had COVID-19 or been boosted recently. “If you’re frail or worried you have an underlying condition, or you’re old, the booster makes sense,” Longini says. Roskilde University epidemiologist Lone Simonsen agrees, but is circumspect about boosting in younger, healthy people. “There’s so little severe disease that I don’t see the point in going and getting this vaccine every year,” she says. Andersen, however, advocates a booster for anyone who hasn’t had a vaccine or an infection in 6 months. “I do think that people are looking at this a little too casually,” he says. “This is not a benign virus. Even if you don’t end up dying, it’s not great being sick and infecting others, and the potential effects of Long Covid are real.” ## Are vaccines that provide better protection on the horizon? There’s wide agreement that we need them. “We’re making vaccines against the variants that are going to be gone in 3 months by the time the vaccines are out, without much of a clue of where the virus is headed,” Scarpino says. “And so we’re going to be in this loop basically forever.” A new generation of vaccines might offer a better way out. A company named Codagenix is just completing a phase 3 study of a novel vaccine that contains a live, weakened version of SARS-CoV-2. Squirted into the nose, the hope is the vaccine will create mucosal immunity at the portal of entry. “That’s the only potential game changer I see on the horizon,” Longini says. Other researchers are hoping to develop COVID-19 vaccines that protect even against variants that have yet to emerge by combining pieces of related but widely divergent coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-1 and viruses found in bats and pangolins. “This is the kind of research we really need to quickly invest heavily in,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, whose group published a road map to develop COVID-19 vaccines that trigger broader immune responses. “If we had different vaccines, we could do a lot more.” ## Will COVID-19 become a seasonal disease, like flu? Several infectious diseases [wax and wane](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19) with the seasons, and many scientists expect that COVID-19 will eventually fall into a winter pattern, like influenza and some other viral respiratory diseases. So far, that hasn’t happened. “People keep asking about whether this is a seasonal virus, and my answer is: Yes, the seasonal virus that occurs in every season,” Osterholm jokes. Still, Andersen sees a biseasonal pattern emerging in the U.S. and Europe. COVID-19 cases are now concentrated in winter and summer waves, and the latter seems to have started later this year than in 2023. The start of the next winter season “is probably going to be pushing into November, early December,” Andersen says. “Maybe next year there will be 7 months between waves, and then it will be 8 months and so on.” If that pattern continues, the summer wave would eventually disappear. But disease seasonality is a poorly understood phenomenon, and Micaela Martinez, an infectious disease ecologist at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, says the interplay between human immunity and SARS-CoV-2 evolution is still very dynamic. “You have new variants popping up over a certain time frame, which then could lock into a seasonality,” she says. But she has no idea whether that will occur in 10 years or 100 years from now. “That remains to be seen.” *** doi: 10.1126/science.zq18n4k #### Relevant tags: [Health](https://www.science.org/topic/category/health "Health") [Coronavirus](https://www.science.org/topic/tags/coronavirus "Coronavirus") ## About the author ![Jon Cohen](https://www.science.org/cms/asset/9779500a-8ab7-467f-a5e7-ae58dba08222/cohen-0007.jpg) #### [Jon Cohen](https://www.science.org/content/author/jon-cohen) [mail](mailto:jcohen@aaas.org "mail") ##### Author Jon Cohen, senior correspondent with Science, earned his B.A. in science writing from the University of California San Diego. He can be reached on Signal at bval31.65 and on Bluesky at @cohenjon.bsky.social. [View more](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-covid-19-surging-again-and-do-shots-still-make-sense) ## More from news [![riverside rock shelter in central Spain](https://www.science.org/cms/asset/c4c73904-f29b-448e-b8cf-e9fa7b45c074/_20260121_on_stone_tools_lede.jpg)](https://www.science.org/content/article/ice-age-europeans-imported-tools-distant-lands-perhaps-souvenirs "Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs") 21 Jan 2026 [Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs](https://www.science.org/content/article/ice-age-europeans-imported-tools-distant-lands-perhaps-souvenirs "Ice age Europeans imported tools from distant lands, perhaps as souvenirs") By - Andrew Curry [![Illustration of scientist and politician in lab, scientist is speaking into lab glass and politician has hand to ear as though listening](https://www.science.org/cms/asset/5f32eaad-15c5-42a3-baec-f5c37fd6bf44/_20260122nf_trump_resistance_preview.jpg)](https://www.science.org/content/article/age-trump-are-u-s-scientists-bringing-white-papers-gunfight "In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?") 21 Jan 2026 [In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?](https://www.science.org/content/article/age-trump-are-u-s-scientists-bringing-white-papers-gunfight "In the age of Trump, are U.S. scientists ‘bringing white papers to a gunfight’?") 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