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| Meta Title | Are Aliens Real? | Math Formula Finds Odds of Aliens Existing |
| Meta Description | Can we find the probability of extraterrestrial life? A new study suggests some odds. There's about a 45 percent chance that the truth is out there. |
| Meta Canonical | null |
| Boilerpipe Text | Can we find the probability of extraterrestrial life? A new paper
suggests some odds
.
The experiment uses a
Bayesian analysis
to rerun Earth's development and estimate likelihoods.
What resulted is about a half and half split between intelligent life and no intelligent life.
An astronomer says heās
identified the odds
of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the universe based on an analysis of both the likelihood of life developing quickly within a planetās life cycle and the likelihood the life will be intelligent.
David Kipping leads, yes, the
Cool Worlds Laboratory
at Columbia University. In an explainer video (below), he describes some background for the question of intelligent life in the universe and concludes, āIāve never been much for faithāI want an
answer
.ā
Kipping mentions the changing trends over centuries of human imagination: Basically, as soon as people realized what they saw in the sky included other planets, they began to wonder if other planets had intelligent life. An underdeveloped instrument caused astronomers to see
āmanmadeā canals
on the surface of Mars during the 1800s.
So whatās an evidence-based researcher to do in the face of centuries of speculation and inadequate information? Turn to
Bayesian analysis
, a way of using what we do know to extrapolate what we don't. And to do that, Kipping put Earthās long history on a replay loop. (Here's Kipping's
full, very formula-heavy study
in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
)
Proponents of extraterrestrial life often fall back to the idea that the universe is
so
big that life simply
must
exist somewhere. The odds of no other life anywhere at any point seem, well, astronomically long. But that simple analysis leaves out what we do know about how life emerges. As Phil Plait
explains
at
Syfy
, Bayesian analysis lets us examine not just a coin flip but a
crooked
coin flip, where exterior factors are influencing our outcomes past a pure 50/50 split.
In this case, thinking only about the huge size of the universe is the pure coin flip, and the reality, Kipping explains, is more complicated. Yes, there are basically infinite planets, but if just 0.1 percent are the right temperature, 0.1 percent are the right amount of light, 0.1 percent have the right chemistry, and 0.1 percent are the right age, your candidate group whittles down more and more until youāre left with few feasible candidates at all.
When he reran the timeline of human development, Kipping considered two major variables. Yes, intelligent life eventually developed on Earth, but it took a
huge
amount of time; Earthās history is frontloaded on the end thatās before humans evolved. In a rerun, would life develop early enough to allow the eventual transcendence of intelligent life in the nick of time?
āThe analysis is based on evidence that life emerged within 300 million years of the formation of the Earth's oceans as found in carbon-13-depleted zircon deposits, a very fast start in the context of Earth's lifetime,ā Columbia said in a
statement
. āUsing our objective Bayesian framework, we show that the Bayes factor between a fast versus a slow abiogenesis scenario is at least a factor of 3āirrespective of the prior or the timescale for intelligence evolution,ā Kipping
concludes
in his paper.
Kippingās math showed that fast lifeāthe kind that really
did
happen on Earthāhappened in at least three out of every four Earth reruns in his experiment.
The squeeze here is whether or not that life would eventually evolve intelligence. Instead of 3:1, the odds are just 3:2, meaning three of every five reruns with life would become intelligent life. So overall, that means a 75 percent probability of life and 60 percent likelihood of intelligence, for an overall probability of 45 percent.
If the Bayesian analysis is right, that means even for Earth to be
itself
was the probabilistic minority. But itās still a more concrete argument for the existence of life on Earthlike planets around the universe.
āOverall, our work supports an optimistic outlook for future searches for biosignatures,ā the paper explains.
Caroline Delbert is a writer, avid reader, and contributing editor at Pop Mech. She's also an enthusiast of just about everything. Her favorite topics include nuclear energy, cosmology, math of everyday things, and the philosophy of it all.Ā |
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1. [Science](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/)
2. [UFO Central](https://www.popularmechanics.com/ufo-central/)
3. [This Math Formula Has Determined the Odds of Aliens Existing](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a32603529/math-formula-aliens-exist/)
# This Math Formula Has Determined the Odds of Aliens Existing
There's about a 45 percent chance the truth is out there.
By [Caroline Delbert](https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/ "Caroline Delbert")
Published: May 20, 2020 8:00 AM EDT
Listen (5 min)5 min
Steven Puetzer//Getty Images
- Can we find the probability of extraterrestrial life? A new paper [suggests some odds](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html).
- The experiment uses a [Bayesian analysis](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a30768019/heisenberg-limit-redefined/) to rerun Earth's development and estimate likelihoods.
- What resulted is about a half and half split between intelligent life and no intelligent life.
***
An astronomer says heās [identified the odds](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html) of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the universe based on an analysis of both the likelihood of life developing quickly within a planetās life cycle and the likelihood the life will be intelligent.
## Read This: The Truth Is Out There
- [Inside the Pentagon's Secret UFO Program](https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a30916275/government-secret-ufo-program-investigation/)
David Kipping leads, yes, the [Cool Worlds Laboratory](http://coolworlds.astro.columbia.edu/) at Columbia University. In an explainer video (below), he describes some background for the question of intelligent life in the universe and concludes, āIāve never been much for faithāI want an *answer*.ā
Kipping mentions the changing trends over centuries of human imagination: Basically, as soon as people realized what they saw in the sky included other planets, they began to wonder if other planets had intelligent life. An underdeveloped instrument caused astronomers to see [āmanmadeā canals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_canal) on the surface of Mars during the 1800s.
So whatās an evidence-based researcher to do in the face of centuries of speculation and inadequate information? Turn to [Bayesian analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference), a way of using what we do know to extrapolate what we don't. And to do that, Kipping put Earthās long history on a replay loop. (Here's Kipping's [full, very formula-heavy study](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1921655117) in *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.*)
Proponents of extraterrestrial life often fall back to the idea that the universe is *so* big that life simply *must* exist somewhere. The odds of no other life anywhere at any point seem, well, astronomically long. But that simple analysis leaves out what we do know about how life emerges. As Phil Plait [explains](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/do-aliens-exist-probably-are-they-intelligent-probably-not) at *Syfy*, Bayesian analysis lets us examine not just a coin flip but a *crooked* coin flip, where exterior factors are influencing our outcomes past a pure 50/50 split.
In this case, thinking only about the huge size of the universe is the pure coin flip, and the reality, Kipping explains, is more complicated. Yes, there are basically infinite planets, but if just 0.1 percent are the right temperature, 0.1 percent are the right amount of light, 0.1 percent have the right chemistry, and 0.1 percent are the right age, your candidate group whittles down more and more until youāre left with few feasible candidates at all.
## Our Favorite Math Feature
- [The Amazing Math Inside the Rubikās Cube](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a30244043/solve-rubiks-cube/)
When he reran the timeline of human development, Kipping considered two major variables. Yes, intelligent life eventually developed on Earth, but it took a *huge* amount of time; Earthās history is frontloaded on the end thatās before humans evolved. In a rerun, would life develop early enough to allow the eventual transcendence of intelligent life in the nick of time?
āThe analysis is based on evidence that life emerged within 300 million years of the formation of the Earth's oceans as found in carbon-13-depleted zircon deposits, a very fast start in the context of Earth's lifetime,ā Columbia said in a [statement](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html). āUsing our objective Bayesian framework, we show that the Bayes factor between a fast versus a slow abiogenesis scenario is at least a factor of 3āirrespective of the prior or the timescale for intelligence evolution,ā Kipping [concludes](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1921655117) in his paper.
Kippingās math showed that fast lifeāthe kind that really *did* happen on Earthāhappened in at least three out of every four Earth reruns in his experiment.
[View full post on YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLbbpRYRW5Y&feature=emb_title)
The squeeze here is whether or not that life would eventually evolve intelligence. Instead of 3:1, the odds are just 3:2, meaning three of every five reruns with life would become intelligent life. So overall, that means a 75 percent probability of life and 60 percent likelihood of intelligence, for an overall probability of 45 percent.
If the Bayesian analysis is right, that means even for Earth to be *itself* was the probabilistic minority. But itās still a more concrete argument for the existence of life on Earthlike planets around the universe.
āOverall, our work supports an optimistic outlook for future searches for biosignatures,ā the paper explains.
## Before You Go...
- [EXCLUSIVE: Aliens Smell Like Farts](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a29932234/what-would-aliens-smell-like/)
- [How an Inmate Made a Huge Math Discovery in Prison](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a32502357/inmate-math-discovery-prison-continued-fractions/)
- [The Most Controversial Open Math Problem: Solved?](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a32036999/abc-conjecture-controversial-math-problem-solved/)
[Caroline Delbert](https://www.popularmechanics.com/author/224127/caroline-delbert/)
Caroline Delbert is a writer, avid reader, and contributing editor at Pop Mech. She's also an enthusiast of just about everything. Her favorite topics include nuclear energy, cosmology, math of everyday things, and the philosophy of it all.
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[What Do Alien Space Probes Look Like?](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a46754311/what-do-alien-probes-look-like/)
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| Readable Markdown | - Can we find the probability of extraterrestrial life? A new paper [suggests some odds](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html).
- The experiment uses a [Bayesian analysis](https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a30768019/heisenberg-limit-redefined/) to rerun Earth's development and estimate likelihoods.
- What resulted is about a half and half split between intelligent life and no intelligent life.
***
An astronomer says heās [identified the odds](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html) of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the universe based on an analysis of both the likelihood of life developing quickly within a planetās life cycle and the likelihood the life will be intelligent.
David Kipping leads, yes, the [Cool Worlds Laboratory](http://coolworlds.astro.columbia.edu/) at Columbia University. In an explainer video (below), he describes some background for the question of intelligent life in the universe and concludes, āIāve never been much for faithāI want an *answer*.ā
Kipping mentions the changing trends over centuries of human imagination: Basically, as soon as people realized what they saw in the sky included other planets, they began to wonder if other planets had intelligent life. An underdeveloped instrument caused astronomers to see [āmanmadeā canals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martian_canal) on the surface of Mars during the 1800s.
So whatās an evidence-based researcher to do in the face of centuries of speculation and inadequate information? Turn to [Bayesian analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference), a way of using what we do know to extrapolate what we don't. And to do that, Kipping put Earthās long history on a replay loop. (Here's Kipping's [full, very formula-heavy study](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1921655117) in *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.*)
Proponents of extraterrestrial life often fall back to the idea that the universe is *so* big that life simply *must* exist somewhere. The odds of no other life anywhere at any point seem, well, astronomically long. But that simple analysis leaves out what we do know about how life emerges. As Phil Plait [explains](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/do-aliens-exist-probably-are-they-intelligent-probably-not) at *Syfy*, Bayesian analysis lets us examine not just a coin flip but a *crooked* coin flip, where exterior factors are influencing our outcomes past a pure 50/50 split.
In this case, thinking only about the huge size of the universe is the pure coin flip, and the reality, Kipping explains, is more complicated. Yes, there are basically infinite planets, but if just 0.1 percent are the right temperature, 0.1 percent are the right amount of light, 0.1 percent have the right chemistry, and 0.1 percent are the right age, your candidate group whittles down more and more until youāre left with few feasible candidates at all.
When he reran the timeline of human development, Kipping considered two major variables. Yes, intelligent life eventually developed on Earth, but it took a *huge* amount of time; Earthās history is frontloaded on the end thatās before humans evolved. In a rerun, would life develop early enough to allow the eventual transcendence of intelligent life in the nick of time?
āThe analysis is based on evidence that life emerged within 300 million years of the formation of the Earth's oceans as found in carbon-13-depleted zircon deposits, a very fast start in the context of Earth's lifetime,ā Columbia said in a [statement](https://phys.org/news/2020-05-odds-life-intelligence-emerging-planet.html). āUsing our objective Bayesian framework, we show that the Bayes factor between a fast versus a slow abiogenesis scenario is at least a factor of 3āirrespective of the prior or the timescale for intelligence evolution,ā Kipping [concludes](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1921655117) in his paper.
Kippingās math showed that fast lifeāthe kind that really *did* happen on Earthāhappened in at least three out of every four Earth reruns in his experiment.
The squeeze here is whether or not that life would eventually evolve intelligence. Instead of 3:1, the odds are just 3:2, meaning three of every five reruns with life would become intelligent life. So overall, that means a 75 percent probability of life and 60 percent likelihood of intelligence, for an overall probability of 45 percent.
If the Bayesian analysis is right, that means even for Earth to be *itself* was the probabilistic minority. But itās still a more concrete argument for the existence of life on Earthlike planets around the universe.
āOverall, our work supports an optimistic outlook for future searches for biosignatures,ā the paper explains.
Caroline Delbert is a writer, avid reader, and contributing editor at Pop Mech. She's also an enthusiast of just about everything. Her favorite topics include nuclear energy, cosmology, math of everyday things, and the philosophy of it all. |
| Shard | 162 (laksa) |
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| Unparsed URL | com,popularmechanics!www,/science/a32603529/math-formula-aliens-exist/ s443 |