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This Famous Equation Offers a Clue Clip: Season 52 \| 5m 4sVideo has Closed Captions \| CC The Drake Equation helps scientists estimate the odds of finding intelligent alien civilizations. It’s an age-old question: Do aliens exist? And what are the odds we’ll make contact? A famous mathematical equation, known as the Drake Equation, helps scientists estimate the odds of finding intelligent alien civilizations, but new discoveries and unknown factors could change everything. 03/13/2025 Problems playing video? Report a Problem \| [Closed Captioning Feedback](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/articles/5000673858-i-don-t-see-closed-captions-on-the-video-i-m-watching) ## Report a Problem Before you submit an error, please consult our [Video Help page](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/12000002757). Type of Error Submit Cancel Problems playing video? Report a Problem \| [Closed Captioning Feedback](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/articles/5000673858-i-don-t-see-closed-captions-on-the-video-i-m-watching) ## Report a Problem Before you submit an error, please consult our [Video Help page](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/12000002757). Type of Error Submit Cancel National Corporate funding for NOVA is provided by [Carlisle Companies](https://www.carlisle.com/) and [Viking Cruises](https://www.viking.com/). Major funding for NOVA is provided by the NOVA Science Trust and PBS viewers. Support provided by: [](https://www.carlisle.com/)[](https://www.viking.com/) - [About This Clip](https://www.pbs.org/video/do-aliens-exist-this-famous-equation-offers-a-clue-it1wru/#section1) - [Transcript](https://www.pbs.org/video/do-aliens-exist-this-famous-equation-offers-a-clue-it1wru/#section2) - [More Clips & Previews](https://www.pbs.org/video/do-aliens-exist-this-famous-equation-offers-a-clue-it1wru/#section3) - [You Might Also Like](https://www.pbs.org/video/do-aliens-exist-this-famous-equation-offers-a-clue-it1wru/#section4) [](https://www.pbs.org/show/nova/) # Do Aliens Exist? This Famous Equation Offers a Clue Clip: Season 52 \| 5m 4sVideo has Closed Captions \| CC It’s an age-old question: Do aliens exist? And what are the odds we’ll make contact? A famous mathematical equation, known as the Drake Equation, helps scientists estimate the odds of finding intelligent alien civilizations, but new discoveries and unknown factors could change everything. 03/13/2025 Problems playing video? Report a Problem \| [Closed Captioning Feedback](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/articles/5000673858-i-don-t-see-closed-captions-on-the-video-i-m-watching) ## Report a Problem Before you submit an error, please consult our [Video Help page](https://help.pbs.org/support/solutions/12000002757). Type of Error Submit Cancel ## Genre - [Science and Nature](https://www.pbs.org/explore/science-and-nature/) ### Follow Us \#novapbs ### Share This Video - ## Embed Video  NOVA ### Do Aliens Exist? This Famous Equation Offers a Clue S52 Ep0 ### Fixed iFrame Width: in pixels px Height: in pixels px Copy ### Responsive iFrame Copy - Link Copied to Clipboard ## How to Watch NOVA NOVA is available to stream on pbs.org and the free PBS App, available on iPhone, Apple TV, Android TV, Android smartphones, Amazon Fire TV, Amazon Fire Tablet, Roku, Samsung Smart TV, and Vizio. - [Stream Here on PBS.org](https://www.pbs.org/show/nova/) - [Download the PBS App](https://www.pbs.org/pbs-app/) - [Check Your Local Listings for Broadcast Schedules](https://www.pbs.org/tv_schedules/) ### Buy Now - [Buy on Apple TV](https://tv.apple.com/season/season-1/umc.cmc.isols7d6bxnwgqbsvwrc2ewl?showId=umc.cmc.4ea0iyht1e3466mbex6illnw6&itscg=30200&itsct=tv_box_link&mttnsubad=umc.cmc.isols7d6bxnwgqbsvwrc2ewl) - [Buy on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0FXZ9VHQZ?sr=1-1&pageTypeIdSource=ASIN&pageTypeId=B0FXZ8JYM2&qid=1764624102520&linkCode=ll2&tag=p05a2-20&linkId=924724058c6aed70fdb5bc9ffb2a6830&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl)  Interactive ## [NOVA Labs](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/labs/) NOVA Labs is a free digital platform that engages teens and lifelong learners in games and interactives that foster authentic scientific exploration. Participants take part in real-world investigations by visualizing, analyzing, and playing with the same data that scientists use. [Play](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/labs/) [Open in new tab](https://ga.pbs-video.pbs.org/captions/nova/ade483c7-d791-4a12-adf7-3bd549030465/captions/iE1kq0_caption_en.txt) \- Is there anyone out there? Hello? It's an age old question, do aliens exist and what are the odds that we will make contact? There's actually a famous mathematical equation that could help. (upbeat music) The Drake equation is used to help calculate the odds that advanced alien civilizations exist in our galaxy. Over the years, scientists have proposed ways to update it, to reflect new discoveries like exoplanets and get closer to answering the questions, are we alone and will we ever know for sure? So N in the equation stands for a specific kind of advanced alien civilization. Those that have the technology to produce radio signals detectable by earth. But there may be civilizations out there that don't communicate with radio waves like we do here on Earth, or maybe they are just so far away that we can't detect their signals. Then on the other side of the equation are all of the ingredients for advanced civilizations as we understand them. R star is the average rate that star suitable for the development of intelligent life form in our galaxy, and F sub P is the fraction of those stars that have planets around them. This number has been updated in the last couple of decades with the discovery of exoplanets, but for now, the rest of the terms are estimates, impossible to measure because we just really don't know how many other planets have life, let alone intelligent, advanced life. So if most of these terms are estimates, then there's no definitive answer to the Drake equation. So why is this equation useful? Well, because it's a framework. We have to start somewhere. It's like a guideline for researchers to know what to look for and what to study to find life beyond earth. But one of the key pieces scientists really do wrestle with is the number of planets where life could become intelligent. That's F sub I in the equation. And here's why. The Drake equation assumes its simple forms of life, like microbes inevitably evolve into complex and intelligent life. But others think that the jump in evolution from single-celled organisms to intelligent life is not inevitable. And some even think that at an important factor for how life on earth evolved to become intelligent and technologically advanced might have to do with something you probably learned about in grade school, plate tectonics, oceans and continents. They argue that these things are so important that new terms should be added to the Drake equation. But why? What do plate tectonics have to do with the evolution of advanced civilizations? Today, Earth's crust is made up of massive plates that sit on top of the hot molten rock mantle. But billions of years ago, there was just one massive plate that broke apart as the mantle heated and cooled, forming mountains and volcanoes, creating diverse habitats, recycling nutrients, and regulating the climate. The movement of these plates is known as plate tectonics, and some scientists think that complex organisms on earth emerged on the ocean floor not long after plate tectonics started. Some researchers think those factors made it possible for life to evolve from the sea to the land, which was key for intelligent life developing technology. But at least so far, we don't know of any other planets that have plate tectonics like we have here on earth. (buzzer buzzing) So factoring that into the Drake equation dramatically lowers the odds of other advanced alien civilizations. By that calculation, we may be the only advanced civilization in the galaxy, but there's a lot we don't know about how life evolved to become intelligent. We really only have one example to study, Earth. (bright music) It may be that there are factors that we haven't even thought to consider yet, totally unrelated to plate tectonics, and actually that's a limitation of this whole thought experiment. We just can't account for things we haven't even thought to consider. But maybe one day the researchers listening for extraterrestrials will hear something, and if so, hopefully whoever is out there will live long enough for us to make contact. Ever hear the Fermi paradox? (bell dinging) It may be that it takes so long for any kind of signal to travel to us or vice versa, that the civilization on the other end may no longer exist to receive it. \- \[Computer\] You've got. \- And that's L in the Drake equation, the average length of time civilizations exist to make such signals. 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(2m 58s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/pompeiis-secret-underworld-preview-1tpqee/) [Pompeii's Secret Underworld Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/pompeiis-secret-underworld-preview-1tpqee/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Preview: S52 Ep5 \| 30s \| Archaeologists uncover new truths about Pompeii, a wealthy Roman playground with dark secrets. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/a-brutal-gladiator-fight-in-ancient-pompeii-vmhmsm/) [A Brutal Gladiator Fight in Ancient Pompeii](https://www.pbs.org/video/a-brutal-gladiator-fight-in-ancient-pompeii-vmhmsm/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Clip: S52 Ep5 \| 2m 37s \| At a gladiator match in ancient Pompeii, tensions exploded and spectators became fighters in a riot. (2m 37s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/whats-inside-these-ancient-egyptian-jars-ccxawa/) [What's Inside These Ancient Egyptian Jars?](https://www.pbs.org/video/whats-inside-these-ancient-egyptian-jars-ccxawa/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Clip: S52 Ep4 \| 1m 58s \| A nearly 3,000-year-old canopic jar is discovered in an Egyptian tomb. (1m 58s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/opening-a-sealed-egyptian-tomb-mhz8qb/) [Opening a Sealed Egyptian Tomb](https://www.pbs.org/video/opening-a-sealed-egyptian-tomb-mhz8qb/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Clip: S52 Ep4 \| 2m 38s \| Archaeologists remove the mud brick seal of an unopened Egyptian tomb. (2m 38s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/how-the-afterlife-shaped-ancient-egypt-it5cvj/) [How the Afterlife Shaped Ancient Egypt](https://www.pbs.org/video/how-the-afterlife-shaped-ancient-egypt-it5cvj/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Clip: S52 Ep4 \| 1m 15s \| Discover why the ancient Egyptians invested so much in life after death. (1m 15s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/the-gods-wife-of-amun-powerful-women-in-ancient-egypt-6caucb/) [The God’s Wife of Amun: Powerful Women in Ancient Egypt](https://www.pbs.org/video/the-gods-wife-of-amun-powerful-women-in-ancient-egypt-6caucb/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Clip: S52 Ep4 \| 3m 3s \| Discover a time in Ancient Egypt when women held a role with extraordinary power. (3m 3s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/egypts-tombs-of-amun-preview-3mqy2j/) [Egypt's Tombs of Amun Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/egypts-tombs-of-amun-preview-3mqy2j/) Video has Closed CaptionsCC Preview: S52 Ep4 \| 30s \| A long lost ancient cemetery opens the door to a unique period in Egyptian history. 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[](https://www.pbs.org/video/these-are-the-worlds-oldest-mummies-dkv4oz/) [These Are the World’s Oldest Mummies](https://www.pbs.org/video/these-are-the-worlds-oldest-mummies-dkv4oz/) Video has Closed Captions Clip: S52 \| 2m 49s \| They're older than King Tut, Ötzi the Iceman, and even the ones found in the Atacama Desert. (2m 49s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/4-ways-the-universe-could-end-p4hbip/) [4 Ways the Universe Could End](https://www.pbs.org/video/4-ways-the-universe-could-end-p4hbip/) Video has Closed Captions Clip: S52 \| 5m 7s \| If the universe as we know it started with the Big Bang, will it also have an end? (5m 7s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/superfloods-preview-y5vzpi/) [Superfloods: Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/superfloods-preview-y5vzpi/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep18 \| 30s \| Find out why deadly flash floods are on the rise and how we can protect ourselves from them. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/ancient-desert-death-trap-preview-jclu5b/) [Ancient Desert Death Trap: Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/ancient-desert-death-trap-preview-jclu5b/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep17 \| 30s \| Explore mysterious 9,000-year-old Stone Age megastructures found in the Arabian Desert. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-building-empires-preview-yxzx27/) [Human: Building Empires Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-building-empires-preview-yxzx27/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep16 \| 30s \| Discover how two revolutionary ancient inventions changed the course of humanity forever. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-neanderthal-encounters-iqgza9/) [Human: Neanderthal Encounters Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-neanderthal-encounters-iqgza9/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep14 \| 30s \| Discover how Homo sapiens outlasted Neanderthals – and how they helped make us who we are today. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-journeys-preview-m1v3gb/) [Human: Journeys Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-journeys-preview-m1v3gb/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep13 \| 30s \| Follow Homo sapiens as they venture out of Africa and spread farther than any other human species. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/this-discovery-rewrote-human-history-fdgxvw/) [This Discovery Rewrote Human History](https://www.pbs.org/video/this-discovery-rewrote-human-history-fdgxvw/) Video has Closed Captions Clip: S52 Ep12 \| 2m 50s \| In a remote cave, in North West Africa, a chance discovery uncovered some mysterious human remains. (2m 50s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-origins-preview-yh6evs/) [Human: Origins Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/human-origins-preview-yh6evs/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep12 \| 30s \| Trace the remarkable origin story of Homo sapiens and the crucial moments that shaped our species. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/ultimate-crash-test-impact-preview-nyxxpx/) [Ultimate Crash Test: Impact Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/ultimate-crash-test-impact-preview-nyxxpx/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep11 \| 30s \| Forensic science is put to the test after the first-ever staged multi-vehicle pileup. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/ultimate-crash-test-countdown-preview-pmqvzg/) [Ultimate Crash Test: Countdown Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/ultimate-crash-test-countdown-preview-pmqvzg/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep10 \| 30s \| A first-of-its-kind experiment aims to stage a multi-vehicle pileup to gain new data on car safety. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/secrets-of-the-forest-preview-pc9ryn/) [Secrets of the Forest Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/secrets-of-the-forest-preview-pc9ryn/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep8 \| 30s \| Follow scientists in a quest to understand how complex forest ecosystems can help cool our planet. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/revolutionary-war-weapons-preview-x0y3hh/) [Revolutionary War Weapons Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/revolutionary-war-weapons-preview-x0y3hh/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep7 \| 30s \| Explore key military technologies in the American colonies’ fight for freedom. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/how-deadly-was-the-musket-xdhpvi/) [How Deadly Was the Musket?](https://www.pbs.org/video/how-deadly-was-the-musket-xdhpvi/) Video has Closed Captions Clip: S52 Ep7 \| 4m 57s \| A team of experts put an 18th-century musket to the test — revealing how deadly it really was. (4m 57s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/baltimore-bridge-collapse-preview-ixzrux/) [Baltimore Bridge Collapse Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/baltimore-bridge-collapse-preview-ixzrux/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep6 \| 30s \| Follow the investigation into the deadly container ship collision that closed the Port of Baltimore. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/pompeiis-secret-underworld-preview-1tpqee/) [Pompeii's Secret Underworld Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/pompeiis-secret-underworld-preview-1tpqee/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep5 \| 30s \| Archaeologists uncover new truths about Pompeii, a wealthy Roman playground with dark secrets. (30s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/opening-a-sealed-egyptian-tomb-mhz8qb/) [Opening a Sealed Egyptian Tomb](https://www.pbs.org/video/opening-a-sealed-egyptian-tomb-mhz8qb/) Video has Closed Captions Clip: S52 Ep4 \| 2m 38s \| Archaeologists remove the mud brick seal of an unopened Egyptian tomb. (2m 38s) [](https://www.pbs.org/video/egypts-tombs-of-amun-preview-3mqy2j/) [Egypt's Tombs of Amun Preview](https://www.pbs.org/video/egypts-tombs-of-amun-preview-3mqy2j/) Video has Closed Captions Preview: S52 Ep4 \| 30s \| A long lost ancient cemetery opens the door to a unique period in Egyptian history. (30s)