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1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 84 (from laksa151)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa084.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/06\/10\/upshot\/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html","crawl_time":1774181648,"first_indexed_time":1591789246,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,nytimes!www,\/interactive\/2020\/06\/10\/upshot\/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html s443","src_root_hash":"4566504020376537684","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter - The New York Times","meta_descriptions":["Examining the large and rapid shift in American voters’ attitudes on the Black Lives Matter movement."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years.\n2018\n2019\n2020\n-5\n-0\n+5\n+10\n+15\n+20\n+25\nVoters’ net support for\nBlack Lives Matter\nSupport\nDon’t support\nNet support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it.\n·\nCiviqs\ndaily tracking poll of registered voters\nAmerican public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters\nhaven’t really changed\ntheir views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s\napproval rating\namong registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency.\nBut the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start.\nPublic opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward.\nOver the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from\nCiviqs\n, an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.\nHow voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks\nThough they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement.\nNet support, two weeks ago vs. now\nChange equivalent to previous …\nAll registered voters\n+28\n21 months\nBy party\nDemocrat\n+84\n29 months\nIndependent\n+30\n10 months\nRepublican\n-39\n10 months\nAge\n18 to 34\n+48\n9 months\n35 to 49\n+34\n14 months\n50 to 64\n+19\n29 months\n65+\n+13\n8 months\nEducation\nNon-college grad.\n+28\n10 months\nCollege graduate\n+25\n22 months\nPostgraduate\n+36\n28 months\nRace\nWhite\n+15\n10 months\nBlack\n+82\n37 months\nHispanic or Latino\n+52\n25 months\nOther\n+41\n30 months\nSource: Civiqs\nThe survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s\nU.C.L.A.\/Nationscape\nsurvey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination.\nPerhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter.\nA Monmouth University\npoll\nfound that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements.\nWill the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade.\nHow voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years\nLarge swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted.\nGun control\nNet in favor\nJune 2017\nJune 2020\n14 pts.\n14 pts.\nParkland\nshooting\nParkland\nshooting\n+8\n+7\nBlack Lives Matter\nNet support\n13 pts.\n13 pts.\nFloyd\ndeath\nFloyd\ndeath\n-4\n+28\nImpeaching Pres. Trump\nNet support\n9 pts.\n9 pts.\nImpeachment\nannounced\nImpeachment\nannounced\n+1\n+7\nRussia: Friend or foe\nNet ally\n5 pts.\n5 pts.\n-39\n-59\nBorder wall with Mexico\nNet support\n3 pts.\n3 pts.\n-12\n-10\nLegality of cannabis\nNet legal\n2 pts.\n2 pts.\n+32\n+43\nThe Tea Party\nNet support\n2 pts.\n2 pts.\n-20\n-20\nImmigrants’ path to citizenship\nNet support for citizenship\n2 pts.\n2 pts.\n+24\n+26\nThe alt-right\nNet support\n2 pts.\n2 pts.\n-53\n-54\nGovernment and environment\nNet support for stricter laws\n1 pts.\n1 pts.\n+27\n+30\nGay marriage\nNet legal\n1 pts.\n1 pts.\n+28\n+35\nSome groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter.\n·\nSource: Civiqs\nBut there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift  continues a  long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “\nGreat Awokening\n.”\nPerhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called\nthermostatic public opinion\n.\nAnd whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating  equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion.\nWith a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus.\nOf course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some  protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like\ndefunding the police\n, may hold more limited support than police reforms.\nThere’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter.","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to content](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/06\/10\/upshot\/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#site-content)[Skip to site index](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/06\/10\/upshot\/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#site-index)\n\nSearch & Section Navigation\n\nSection Navigation\n\nSearch\n\n[The Upshot](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/section\/upshot)\n\n[Log in](https:\/\/myaccount.nytimes.com\/auth\/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fsubscription%2Fonboarding-offer%3FcampaignId%3D7JFJX%26EXIT_URI%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.nytimes.com%252Finteractive%252F2020%252F06%252F10%252Fupshot%252Fblack-lives-matter-attitudes.html&asset=masthead)\n\n[Today’s Paper](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/section\/todayspaper)\n\n[The Upshot](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/section\/upshot)\\|How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter\n\nhttps:\/\/nyti.ms\/2zkV2d1\n\n- Share full article\n- 222\n\nAdvertisement\n\n[SKIP ADVERTISEMENT](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/06\/10\/upshot\/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#after-top)\n\n# How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter\nBy [Nate Cohn](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/nate-cohn) and [Kevin Quealy](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/kevin-quealy)June 10, 2020\n\n- Share full article\n- 222\n\n#### In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years.\n####\n2018\n\n2019\n\n2020\n\n\\-5\n\n\\-0\n\n\\+5\n\n\\+10\n\n\\+15\n\n\\+20\n\n\\+25\n\nVoters’ net support for\n\nBlack Lives Matter\n\nSupport\n\nDon’t support\n\nNet support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it.·[Civiqs](https:\/\/civiqs.com\/results\/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) daily tracking poll of registered voters\n\nAmerican public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters [haven’t really changed](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/06\/30\/upshot\/why-gun-control-and-abortion-are-different-from-gay-marriage.html) their views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s [approval rating](https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/trump-approval-ratings\/) among registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency.\n\nBut the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start.\n\nPublic opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward.\n\nOver the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from [Civiqs](https:\/\/civiqs.com\/), an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.\n\n#### How voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks\n#### Though they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement.\n|   | Net support, two weeks ago vs. now | Change equivalent to previous … |\n|---|---|---|\n| All registered voters | \\+28 | 21 months |\n\nBy party\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| Democrat | \\+84 | 29 months |\n| Independent | \\+30 | 10 months |\n| Republican | \\-39 | 10 months |\n\nAge\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| 18 to 34 | \\+48 | 9 months |\n| 35 to 49 | \\+34 | 14 months |\n| 50 to 64 | \\+19 | 29 months |\n| 65+ | \\+13 | 8 months |\n\nEducation\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| Non-college grad. | \\+28 | 10 months |\n| College graduate | \\+25 | 22 months |\n| Postgraduate | \\+36 | 28 months |\n\nRace\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| White | \\+15 | 10 months |\n| Black | \\+82 | 37 months |\n| Hispanic or Latino | \\+52 | 25 months |\n| Other | \\+41 | 30 months |\n\nSource: Civiqs\n\nThe survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s [U.C.L.A.\/Nationscape](https:\/\/www.voterstudygroup.org\/nationscape) survey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination.\n\nPerhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter.\n\nA Monmouth University [poll](https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_060220\/) found that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements.\n\nWill the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade.\n\n#### How voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years\n#### Large swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted.\n##### Gun control\n##### Net in favor\n\nJune 2017\n\nJune 2020\n\n14 pts.\n\n14 pts.\n\nParkland\n\nshooting\n\nParkland\n\nshooting\n\n\\+8\n\n\\+7\n\n##### Black Lives Matter\n##### Net support\n\n13 pts.\n\n13 pts.\n\nFloyd\n\ndeath\n\nFloyd\n\ndeath\n\n\\-4\n\n\\+28\n\n##### Impeaching Pres. Trump\n##### Net support\n\n9 pts.\n\n9 pts.\n\nImpeachment\n\nannounced\n\nImpeachment\n\nannounced\n\n\\+1\n\n\\+7\n\n##### Russia: Friend or foe\n##### Net ally\n\n5 pts.\n\n5 pts.\n\n\\-39\n\n\\-59\n\n##### Border wall with Mexico\n##### Net support\n\n3 pts.\n\n3 pts.\n\n\\-12\n\n\\-10\n\n##### Legality of cannabis\n##### Net legal\n\n2 pts.\n\n2 pts.\n\n\\+32\n\n\\+43\n\n##### The Tea Party\n##### Net support\n\n2 pts.\n\n2 pts.\n\n\\-20\n\n\\-20\n\n##### Immigrants’ path to citizenship\n##### Net support for citizenship\n\n2 pts.\n\n2 pts.\n\n\\+24\n\n\\+26\n\n##### The alt-right\n##### Net support\n\n2 pts.\n\n2 pts.\n\n\\-53\n\n\\-54\n\n##### Government and environment\n##### Net support for stricter laws\n\n1 pts.\n\n1 pts.\n\n\\+27\n\n\\+30\n\n##### Gay marriage\n##### Net legal\n\n1 pts.\n\n1 pts.\n\n\\+28\n\n\\+35\n\nSome groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter.·Source: Civiqs\n\nBut there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift continues a long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “[Great Awokening](https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2019\/3\/22\/18259865\/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020).”\n\nPerhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called [thermostatic public opinion](https:\/\/pages.uncc.edu\/mary-atkinson\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/619\/2014\/02\/BeyondThermostat.pdf).\n\nAnd whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion.\n\nWith a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus.\n\nOf course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like [defunding the police](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/08\/us\/what-does-defund-police-mean.html), may hold more limited support than police reforms.\n\nThere’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter.\n\nRead 222 comments\n\n- Share full article\n- 222\n\n***\n## From The Upshot: What the Data Says\n### Analysis that explains politics, policy and everyday life.\n***\n- **Betting on Reality TV:** Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction markets, are offering [bets on reality television shows](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/18\/upshot\/survivor-prediction-markets-betting-insiders.html) that have already been taped, raising the possibility that people involved in the taping could profit from surefire bets before episodes are aired.\n- **Cost of Child Care:** It has always been expensive, but recently [prices have risen faster than inflation](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/05\/upshot\/child-care-expensive-prices.html).\n- **Who Won the Winter Olympics?:** Which country won the most events on snow, ice or sliding track? [Here are all the ways we could think of to track the medal count](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/22\/upshot\/winter-olympics-leaders-nations.html).\n- **Physician Assistants:** In multiple states, P.A. now means “physician associate,” and other states may follow this year. [Increased responsibilities and a push for the title change by physician assistants are raising tensions with doctors](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/31\/upshot\/physician-assistants-doctors-role.html).\n\n## Related Content\n### [More in The Upshot](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/section\/upshot)\n- [Ozempic Is About to Go Generic for Billions of People](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/19\/health\/ozempic-wegovy-generic-india-china-canada.html)\n  \n  ![](https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/19\/multimedia\/19HS-GENERICS-OBESITY-10-hpjz\/19HS-GENERICS-OBESITY-10-hpjz-square640.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)\n  \n  Saumya Khandelwal for The New York Times\n- [How New Mexico Became an Obamacare Success Story](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/20\/health\/obamacare-new-mexico-subsidies-states.html)\n  \n  ![State Representative Reena Szczepanski, a Democrat, helped spearhead New Mexico’s effort to replace the lost subsidies.](https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/13\/science\/00HS-ACA-STATES\/00HS-ACA-STATES-square640.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)\n  \n  Morgan Lee\/Associated Press\n- [Flashback: Your Weekly History Quiz, March 21, 2026](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/03\/20\/upshot\/flashback.html)\n  \n  ![](https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/20\/multimedia\/flashback-promo-2026-03-21-6\/flashback-promo-2026-03-21-6-square640.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)\n  \n  The New York Times\n- [Flashback: Your Weekly History Quiz, March 7, 2026](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/03\/06\/upshot\/flashback.html)\n  \n  ![](https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/06\/multimedia\/flashback-promo-2026-03-07-6\/flashback-promo-2026-03-07-6-square640.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)\n  \n  The New York Times\n\n### Editors’ Picks\n- [I’m the Family Breadwinner. 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Navigation\n- [© 2026 The New York Times Company](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/115014792127-Copyright-Notice)\n\n- [NYTCo](https:\/\/www.nytco.com\/)\n- [Contact Us](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/115015385887-Contact-The-New-York-Times)\n- [Accessibility](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/115015727108-Accessibility)\n- [Work with us](https:\/\/www.nytco.com\/careers\/)\n- [Advertise](https:\/\/advertising.nytimes.com\/)\n- [T Brand Studio](https:\/\/advertising.nytimes.com\/custom-content\/)\n- [Privacy Policy](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/10940941449492-The-New-York-Times-Company-Privacy-Policy)\n- [Cookie Policy](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/privacy\/cookie-policy)\n- [Terms of Service](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/115014893428-Terms-of-Service)\n- [Terms of Sale](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/115014893968-Terms-of-Sale)\n- [Site Map](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/sitemap\/)\n- [Canada](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/ca\/)\n- [International](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/international\/)\n- [Help](https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us)\n- [Subscriptions](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/subscription?campaignId=37WXW)\n\nEnjoy unlimited access to all of The Times.\n\n[See subscription options](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/subscription?campaignId=7Q87L)","attrs_readable_markdown":"#### In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years.\n2018 2019 2020 \\-5 \\-0 \\+5 \\+10 \\+15 \\+20 \\+25 Voters’ net support for Black Lives Matter Support Don’t support\n\nNet support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it.·[Civiqs](https:\/\/civiqs.com\/results\/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) daily tracking poll of registered voters\n\nAmerican public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters [haven’t really changed](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/06\/30\/upshot\/why-gun-control-and-abortion-are-different-from-gay-marriage.html) their views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s [approval rating](https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/trump-approval-ratings\/) among registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency.\n\nBut the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start.\n\nPublic opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward.\n\nOver the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from [Civiqs](https:\/\/civiqs.com\/), an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.\n\n#### How voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks\n#### Though they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement.\n|   | Net support, two weeks ago vs. now | Change equivalent to previous … |\n|---|---|---|\n| All registered voters | \\+28 | 21 months |\n\nBy party\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| Democrat | \\+84 | 29 months |\n| Independent | \\+30 | 10 months |\n| Republican | \\-39 | 10 months |\n\nAge\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| 18 to 34 | \\+48 | 9 months |\n| 35 to 49 | \\+34 | 14 months |\n| 50 to 64 | \\+19 | 29 months |\n| 65+ | \\+13 | 8 months |\n\nEducation\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| Non-college grad. | \\+28 | 10 months |\n| College graduate | \\+25 | 22 months |\n| Postgraduate | \\+36 | 28 months |\n\nRace\n\n|   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|\n| White | \\+15 | 10 months |\n| Black | \\+82 | 37 months |\n| Hispanic or Latino | \\+52 | 25 months |\n| Other | \\+41 | 30 months |\n\nSource: Civiqs\n\nThe survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s [U.C.L.A.\/Nationscape](https:\/\/www.voterstudygroup.org\/nationscape) survey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination.\n\nPerhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter.\n\nA Monmouth University [poll](https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_060220\/) found that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements.\n\nWill the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade.\n\n#### How voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years\n#### Large swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted.\nGun controlNet in favor\n\nJune 2017 June 2020 14 pts. 14 pts. Parkland shooting Parkland shooting \\+8 \\+7\n\nBlack Lives MatterNet support\n\n13 pts. 13 pts. Floyd death Floyd death \\-4 \\+28\n\nImpeaching Pres. TrumpNet support\n\n9 pts. 9 pts. Impeachment announced Impeachment announced \\+1 \\+7\n\nRussia: Friend or foeNet ally\n\n5 pts. 5 pts. \\-39 \\-59\n\nBorder wall with MexicoNet support\n\n3 pts. 3 pts. \\-12 \\-10\n\nLegality of cannabisNet legal\n\n2 pts. 2 pts. \\+32 \\+43\n\nThe Tea PartyNet support\n\n2 pts. 2 pts. \\-20 \\-20\n\nImmigrants’ path to citizenshipNet support for citizenship\n\n2 pts. 2 pts. \\+24 \\+26\n\nThe alt-rightNet support\n\n2 pts. 2 pts. \\-53 \\-54\n\nGovernment and environmentNet support for stricter laws\n\n1 pts. 1 pts. \\+27 \\+30\n\nGay marriageNet legal\n\n1 pts. 1 pts. \\+28 \\+35\n\nSome groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter.·Source: Civiqs\n\nBut there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift continues a long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “[Great Awokening](https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2019\/3\/22\/18259865\/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020).”\n\nPerhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called [thermostatic public opinion](https:\/\/pages.uncc.edu\/mary-atkinson\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/619\/2014\/02\/BeyondThermostat.pdf).\n\nAnd whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion.\n\nWith a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus.\n\nOf course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like [defunding the police](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/08\/us\/what-does-defund-police-mean.html), may hold more limited support than police reforms.\n\nThere’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter.","meta_canonical":null}

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URL	https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html
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Meta Title	How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter - The New York Times
Meta Description	Examining the large and rapid shift in American voters’ attitudes on the Black Lives Matter movement.
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Boilerpipe Text	In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years. 2018 2019 2020 -5 -0 +5 +10 +15 +20 +25 Voters’ net support for Black Lives Matter Support Don’t support Net support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it. · Civiqs daily tracking poll of registered voters American public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters haven’t really changed their views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s approval rating among registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency. But the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start. Public opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward. Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from Civiqs , an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began. How voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks Though they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement. Net support, two weeks ago vs. now Change equivalent to previous … All registered voters +28 21 months By party Democrat +84 29 months Independent +30 10 months Republican -39 10 months Age 18 to 34 +48 9 months 35 to 49 +34 14 months 50 to 64 +19 29 months 65+ +13 8 months Education Non-college grad. +28 10 months College graduate +25 22 months Postgraduate +36 28 months Race White +15 10 months Black +82 37 months Hispanic or Latino +52 25 months Other +41 30 months Source: Civiqs The survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s U.C.L.A./Nationscape survey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination. Perhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter. A Monmouth University poll found that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements. Will the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade. How voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years Large swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted. Gun control Net in favor June 2017 June 2020 14 pts. 14 pts. Parkland shooting Parkland shooting +8 +7 Black Lives Matter Net support 13 pts. 13 pts. Floyd death Floyd death -4 +28 Impeaching Pres. Trump Net support 9 pts. 9 pts. Impeachment announced Impeachment announced +1 +7 Russia: Friend or foe Net ally 5 pts. 5 pts. -39 -59 Border wall with Mexico Net support 3 pts. 3 pts. -12 -10 Legality of cannabis Net legal 2 pts. 2 pts. +32 +43 The Tea Party Net support 2 pts. 2 pts. -20 -20 Immigrants’ path to citizenship Net support for citizenship 2 pts. 2 pts. +24 +26 The alt-right Net support 2 pts. 2 pts. -53 -54 Government and environment Net support for stricter laws 1 pts. 1 pts. +27 +30 Gay marriage Net legal 1 pts. 1 pts. +28 +35 Some groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter. · Source: Civiqs But there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift continues a long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “ Great Awokening .” Perhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called thermostatic public opinion . And whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion. With a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus. Of course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like defunding the police , may hold more limited support than police reforms. There’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter.
Markdown	[Skip to content](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#site-content)[Skip to site index](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#site-index) Search & Section Navigation Section Navigation Search [The Upshot](https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot) [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fsubscription%2Fonboarding-offer%3FcampaignId%3D7JFJX%26EXIT_URI%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.nytimes.com%252Finteractive%252F2020%252F06%252F10%252Fupshot%252Fblack-lives-matter-attitudes.html&asset=masthead) [Today’s Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) [The Upshot](https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot)\\|How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter https://nyti.ms/2zkV2d1 - Share full article - 222 Advertisement [SKIP ADVERTISEMENT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html#after-top) # How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter By [Nate Cohn](https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn) and [Kevin Quealy](https://www.nytimes.com/by/kevin-quealy)June 10, 2020 - Share full article - 222 #### In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years. #### 2018 2019 2020 \-5 \-0 \+5 \+10 \+15 \+20 \+25 Voters’ net support for Black Lives Matter Support Don’t support Net support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it.·[Civiqs](https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) daily tracking poll of registered voters American public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters [haven’t really changed](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/upshot/why-gun-control-and-abortion-are-different-from-gay-marriage.html) their views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s [approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) among registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency. But the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start. Public opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward. Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from [Civiqs](https://civiqs.com/), an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began. #### How voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks #### Though they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement. \| \| Net support, two weeks ago vs. now \| Change equivalent to previous … \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| All registered voters \| \+28 \| 21 months \| By party \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| Democrat \| \+84 \| 29 months \| \| Independent \| \+30 \| 10 months \| \| Republican \| \-39 \| 10 months \| Age \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| 18 to 34 \| \+48 \| 9 months \| \| 35 to 49 \| \+34 \| 14 months \| \| 50 to 64 \| \+19 \| 29 months \| \| 65+ \| \+13 \| 8 months \| Education \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| Non-college grad. \| \+28 \| 10 months \| \| College graduate \| \+25 \| 22 months \| \| Postgraduate \| \+36 \| 28 months \| Race \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| White \| \+15 \| 10 months \| \| Black \| \+82 \| 37 months \| \| Hispanic or Latino \| \+52 \| 25 months \| \| Other \| \+41 \| 30 months \| Source: Civiqs The survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s [U.C.L.A./Nationscape](https://www.voterstudygroup.org/nationscape) survey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination. Perhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter. A Monmouth University [poll](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_060220/) found that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements. Will the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade. #### How voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years #### Large swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted. ##### Gun control ##### Net in favor June 2017 June 2020 14 pts. 14 pts. Parkland shooting Parkland shooting \+8 \+7 ##### Black Lives Matter ##### Net support 13 pts. 13 pts. Floyd death Floyd death \-4 \+28 ##### Impeaching Pres. Trump ##### Net support 9 pts. 9 pts. Impeachment announced Impeachment announced \+1 \+7 ##### Russia: Friend or foe ##### Net ally 5 pts. 5 pts. \-39 \-59 ##### Border wall with Mexico ##### Net support 3 pts. 3 pts. \-12 \-10 ##### Legality of cannabis ##### Net legal 2 pts. 2 pts. \+32 \+43 ##### The Tea Party ##### Net support 2 pts. 2 pts. \-20 \-20 ##### Immigrants’ path to citizenship ##### Net support for citizenship 2 pts. 2 pts. \+24 \+26 ##### The alt-right ##### Net support 2 pts. 2 pts. \-53 \-54 ##### Government and environment ##### Net support for stricter laws 1 pts. 1 pts. \+27 \+30 ##### Gay marriage ##### Net legal 1 pts. 1 pts. \+28 \+35 Some groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter.·Source: Civiqs But there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift continues a long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “[Great Awokening](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020).” Perhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called [thermostatic public opinion](https://pages.uncc.edu/mary-atkinson/wp-content/uploads/sites/619/2014/02/BeyondThermostat.pdf). And whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion. With a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus. Of course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like [defunding the police](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/us/what-does-defund-police-mean.html), may hold more limited support than police reforms. There’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter. 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Readable Markdown	#### In the last two weeks, American voters’ support for the Black Lives Matter movement increased almost as much as it had in the preceding two years. 2018 2019 2020 \-5 \-0 \+5 \+10 \+15 \+20 \+25 Voters’ net support for Black Lives Matter Support Don’t support Net support is a measure showing the percent of respondents who supported a policy minus the percent who said they did not support it.·[Civiqs](https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true) daily tracking poll of registered voters American public opinion can sometimes seem stubborn. Voters [haven’t really changed](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/upshot/why-gun-control-and-abortion-are-different-from-gay-marriage.html) their views on abortion in 50 years. Donald J. Trump’s [approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) among registered voters has fallen within a five-point range for just about every day of his presidency. But the Black Lives Matter movement has been an exception from the start. Public opinion on race and criminal justice issues has been steadily moving left since the first protests ignited over the fatal shootings of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown. And since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25, public opinion on race, criminal justice and the Black Lives Matter movement has leaped leftward. Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from [Civiqs](https://civiqs.com/), an online survey research firm. By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began. #### How voters’ views on Black Lives Matter have changed in the last two weeks #### Though they started from different places, all kinds of voters moved sharply in the direction of supporting the movement. \| \| Net support, two weeks ago vs. now \| Change equivalent to previous … \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| All registered voters \| \+28 \| 21 months \| By party \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| Democrat \| \+84 \| 29 months \| \| Independent \| \+30 \| 10 months \| \| Republican \| \-39 \| 10 months \| Age \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| 18 to 34 \| \+48 \| 9 months \| \| 35 to 49 \| \+34 \| 14 months \| \| 50 to 64 \| \+19 \| 29 months \| \| 65+ \| \+13 \| 8 months \| Education \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| Non-college grad. \| \+28 \| 10 months \| \| College graduate \| \+25 \| 22 months \| \| Postgraduate \| \+36 \| 28 months \| Race \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\| \| White \| \+15 \| 10 months \| \| Black \| \+82 \| 37 months \| \| Hispanic or Latino \| \+52 \| 25 months \| \| Other \| \+41 \| 30 months \| Source: Civiqs The survey is not the only one to suggest that recent protests enjoy broad public support. Weekly polling for the Democracy Fund’s [U.C.L.A./Nationscape](https://www.voterstudygroup.org/nationscape) survey shows a significant increase in unfavorable views of the police, and an increase in the belief that African-Americans face a lot of discrimination. Perhaps most significant, the Civiqs data is not alone in suggesting that an outright majority of Americans agree with the central arguments of Black Lives Matter. A Monmouth University [poll](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_060220/) found that 76 percent of Americans consider racism and discrimination a “big problem,” up 26 points from 2015. The poll found that 57 percent of voters thought the anger behind the demonstrations was fully justified, while a further 21 percent called it somewhat justified. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe that the police are more likely to use deadly force against African-Americans, and that there’s a lot of discrimination against black Americans in society. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements. Will the recent shift in opinion last? News events can sometimes cause a shift in public opinion that quickly dissipates. After mass shootings, for instance, big spikes in support for gun control typically ebb as soon as memories of the bloodshed fade. #### How voters’ views on other issues have changed in the last two years #### Large swings in public opinion in short periods are not typical. Two-week periods with the biggest shifts in movement are highlighted. Gun controlNet in favor June 2017 June 2020 14 pts. 14 pts. Parkland shooting Parkland shooting \+8 \+7 Black Lives MatterNet support 13 pts. 13 pts. Floyd death Floyd death \-4 \+28 Impeaching Pres. TrumpNet support 9 pts. 9 pts. Impeachment announced Impeachment announced \+1 \+7 Russia: Friend or foeNet ally 5 pts. 5 pts. \-39 \-59 Border wall with MexicoNet support 3 pts. 3 pts. \-12 \-10 Legality of cannabisNet legal 2 pts. 2 pts. \+32 \+43 The Tea PartyNet support 2 pts. 2 pts. \-20 \-20 Immigrants’ path to citizenshipNet support for citizenship 2 pts. 2 pts. \+24 \+26 The alt-rightNet support 2 pts. 2 pts. \-53 \-54 Government and environmentNet support for stricter laws 1 pts. 1 pts. \+27 \+30 Gay marriageNet legal 1 pts. 1 pts. \+28 \+35 Some groups have always had close to universal support for Black Lives Matter.·Source: Civiqs But there are reasons to think that the Black Lives Matter movement might be different. For one, the shift continues a long-term trend in public opinion that preceded the death of Mr. Floyd. By the time of the 2016 election, many white liberal Democrats held some views on race that were to the left of African-Americans over all, in what some branded the “[Great Awokening](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020).” Perhaps surprisingly, the election of Mr. Trump may have helped move public opinion even more. There’s a longstanding tendency for voters to drift toward the views of the party out of power on various issues, sometimes called [thermostatic public opinion](https://pages.uncc.edu/mary-atkinson/wp-content/uploads/sites/619/2014/02/BeyondThermostat.pdf). And whether on gay marriage or civil rights, American public opinion tends to drift toward the side advocating equal treatment. Public opinion doesn’t have nearly as clear a record of drifting toward the left on issues that don’t hinge on equal treatment under the law, like gun control and abortion. With a majority of Americans backing the protests, it’s also possible that steps by political actors could move opinion further. The support of Republican elected officials, like Senator Mitt Romney, could give permission for some potentially sympathetic Republican voters to re-evaluate their views on the issue. In general, public consensus becomes likelier when the two parties reach a consensus. Of course, it’s also possible that events could move public opinion the other way. The tactics of some protesters could be a factor. Kneeling during the national anthem may be less effective at appealing to persuadable Americans than the recent peaceful protests, for instance. A sense that protests were getting out of control, with looting and violence, could also harm the public image of the movement. And it is possible that the movement will face fresh obstacles as it transitions from a critique of the status quo to proposing new policies. Some of the policies under discussion, like [defunding the police](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/us/what-does-defund-police-mean.html), may hold more limited support than police reforms. There’s no way to know what will happen next. After all, no one just a few years ago would have predicted that a majority of Americans would say they have a favorable view of Black Lives Matter.
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