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| Meta Title | What Is Brexit? Updates on Britain's Split From E.U. - The New York Times |
| Meta Description | Almost a year after it took full effect, the consequences of Britain’s split from the European Union are still unfolding. Here is a guide to what it means, how it came about and what the future may hold. |
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Almost a year after it took full effect, the consequences of Britain’s split from the European Union are still unfolding. Here is a guide to what it means, how it came about and what the future may hold.
Celebrating in London in January 2020 as Britain officially left the European Union. A transition period ran until the end of 2020.
Credit...
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Nov. 8, 2021
Britain broke from the European Union’s regulatory orbit on Jan. 1, casting off nearly a half-century inside the bloc and embarking on what analysts described as the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations between countries.
Far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the rest of Europe, the split, known as
Brexit
, has opened a new chapter — one that could reshape not only the country’s economy, foreign policy and politics, but even its borders.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks of creating a more agile “Global Britain,” with stronger ties to the United States and other democracies, like Australia, India and South Korea.
But
while that plan has hit setbacks
, risks from the new dispensation have quickly become evident, including on empty supermarket shelves as the country struggles with a shortage of truck drivers.
And arrangements for the sensitive territory of Northern Ireland have fueled rioting and diplomatic tensions.
Let’s start with the basics.
Why “Brexit”?
A portmanteau of the words Britain and exit, Brexit caught on as shorthand for the proposal that Britain leave the European Union and change its relationship with the bloc on trade, security and migration.
Britain has debated the pros and cons of a club of European nations almost since the idea was broached, after World War II. It joined in 1973 — and held a referendum on whether to leave less than three years later. Then, 67 percent of voters supported staying.
But that was hardly the end of the argument.
In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron
promised a new national referendum
. The options were “remain” or “leave,” and Mr. Cameron was convinced that “remain” would win easily.
Image
Trucks waiting to enter the Port of Dover in England in December 2020. Increased border controls raised concerns about long backups.
Credit...
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Leaving is a big deal economically.
Europe has been Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and E.U. membership helped London cement its position as a global financial center.
For decades, British companies could move goods to and from the European Union without taxes or tariffs. People could move freely, too.
But as 2021 began, business changed for many — including British
automakers
, who rely on suppliers across Europe, and
touring musicians
, who suddenly faced a thicket of visa rules.
The agreement that London and Brussels reached late in 2020 avoided tariffs or quotas on goods. But traders still confronted new paperwork and unpredictable delays, sometimes resulting in
rotting cargoes
.
And the services sector — about
80 percent
or more of British economic activity, comprising not only the financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was left dependent on patchwork decisions by European regulators.
Britain’s
Office for Budget Responsibility
, an independent official body, says trade with the European Union took a sharp hit in January and remained 15 percent down in August, even as business with other countries began to recover from pandemic effects. It estimates that
Britain’s economy will be 4 percent less productive
than it would have been inside the bloc.
Brexit’s supporters say their aim is a ‘Global Britain.’
Opponents of Brexit describe it as an attempt to reclaim an imagined Britain of the past, one with
fewer European migrants
and
more patriotic singing
. But Mr. Johnson, like many prominent proponents, often presents it as
a way of embracing change
.
Image
Parliament in London. Euroskeptic lawmakers in Britain pushed for the country to leave the bloc’s single market and customs union.
Credit...
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Scotland could make its own split.
Along with Northern Ireland, Scotland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, with a vote of more than 60 percent to remain in the European Union. That stark divergence of opinion has
shaken the far older union between England and Scotland
.
Scots voted against independence from Britain in a 2014 referendum
, but the pro-independence Scottish National Party, or S.N.P., has dominated the Scottish Parliament for more than a decade. It has promised to legislate for a rerun, with Brexit as its justification. A reversal would cost Britain 8 percent of its population, a third of its landmass and significant international prestige.
For a new referendum to be legal, however, it would almost certainly need the agreement of London, and Mr. Johnson has repeatedly said no. Scottish elections in May left the S.N.P.
one seat short of a majority
, but it has support from smaller pro-independence parties. If neither side backs down, the result could be
a court battle, or even a constitutional crisis
.
Image
Fishing rights were among the most stubborn sticking points in the negotiations for Britain’s leaving the bloc’s single market and customs union.
Credit...
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Fishing remains a sore point.
Britain’s fishing fleet is a small fraction of the size it reached in the middle of the last century — a decline for which Brexit proponents have long blamed E.U. rules on sharing access to fisheries.
The British government cast its split from the European Union as a chance to revive an industry that was also
a storied way of life
.
In the trade deal negotiations, both sides had to compromise: E.U. boats kept more rights in British waters than Britain had demanded, but over a shorter period than Brussels had called for. Tensions are still high: France
detained a British trawler
in October, citing a dispute over licenses for dozens of French vessels. And in May, Britain
sent Royal Navy ships
in response to a protest blockade by French fishing boats off the semiautonomous island of Jersey.
That may not help British fishing companies, which long sold much of their catch in Europe. Some seafood exporters say delays from new checks could
drive them out of business
.
What’s next?
For bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants, the Dec. 24 trade agreement was only the beginning of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment.
Britain has been short of customs agents to deal with the tens of millions of declarations now needed, industry experts said. It has repeatedly
delayed some of its own new border checks
, with several deadlines
pushed to July 2022
.
In the four years after Britain’s referendum, the number of Europeans migrating to the country for work plunged, and British companies sent employees to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt. The number of jobs that will be relocated, or created in different places, is still becoming clear.
But already, many British businesses say they are
struggling to fill positions
that might once have been taken by E.U. workers, presenting a risk to Britain’s pandemic recovery.
A lack of truck drivers
, echoed in other countries but exacerbated by Brexit, has caused passing shortages of a bewildering range of items including
Nando’s chicken
and Haribo sweets.
And the future of some E.U. citizens in Britain remains uncertain. More than two million have been granted “settled status,” the right to stay indefinitely. But applications closed at the end of June, and the process has made few provisions for those unable to complete it online, much less for those who don’t realize they need permission to stay somewhere they have lived for decades.
Image
The City of London, Britain’s financial hub. E.U. membership helped the capital cement its position as a global banking center.
Credit...
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Stephen Castle and Mark Landler contributed reporting.
Benjamin Mueller
is a health and science reporter. Previously, he covered the coronavirus pandemic as a correspondent in London and the police in New York.
A version of this article appears in print on
May 10, 2021
, Section A, Page 8 of the New York edition with the headline: With Brexit Done, Europe Begins a New Era of Trade
.
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# What Is Brexit? And How Is It Going?
Almost a year after it took full effect, the consequences of Britain’s split from the European Union are still unfolding. Here is a guide to what it means, how it came about and what the future may hold.
- Share full article

Celebrating in London in January 2020 as Britain officially left the European Union. A transition period ran until the end of 2020.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
By [Benjamin Mueller](https://www.nytimes.com/by/benjamin-mueller) and Peter Robins
Nov. 8, 2021
[Leer en español](https://www.nytimes.com/es/2020/12/24/espanol/brexit-union-europea.html "Read in Spanish")
Britain broke from the European Union’s regulatory orbit on Jan. 1, casting off nearly a half-century inside the bloc and embarking on what analysts described as the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations between countries.
Far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the rest of Europe, the split, known as [Brexit](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/world/europe/uk-brexit-estonia-business.html), has opened a new chapter — one that could reshape not only the country’s economy, foreign policy and politics, but even its borders.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks of creating a more agile “Global Britain,” with stronger ties to the United States and other democracies, like Australia, India and South Korea.
But [while that plan has hit setbacks](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/world/europe/boris-johnson-cabinet-reshuffle.html), risks from the new dispensation have quickly become evident, including on empty supermarket shelves as the country struggles with a shortage of truck drivers.
And arrangements for the sensitive territory of Northern Ireland have fueled rioting and diplomatic tensions.
### Here’s what you need to know:
- [Let’s start with the basics.](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-5577c4ce)
- [Leaving is a big deal economically.](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-5ad10db6)
- [Brexit’s supporters say their aim is a ‘Global Britain.’](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-3c762cd)
- [In Northern Ireland, Brexit is waking old demons.](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-623c8787)
- [Scotland could make its own split.](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-12f00660)
- [Fishing remains a sore point.](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-51403d3d)
- [What’s next?](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-b30f02b)
## Let’s start with the basics.
Why “Brexit”?
A portmanteau of the words Britain and exit, Brexit caught on as shorthand for the proposal that Britain leave the European Union and change its relationship with the bloc on trade, security and migration.
Britain has debated the pros and cons of a club of European nations almost since the idea was broached, after World War II. It joined in 1973 — and held a referendum on whether to leave less than three years later. Then, 67 percent of voters supported staying.
But that was hardly the end of the argument.
In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron [promised a new national referendum](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/world/europe/cameron-britain-referendum-european-union.html?module=inline). The options were “remain” or “leave,” and Mr. Cameron was convinced that “remain” would win easily.
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But by the time of the vote on June 23, 2016, a refugee crisis had made migration a subject of political rage across Europe.
After an acrimonious campaign, in which the “leave” side was criticized as [pushing misleading and contradictory messages](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/europe/having-won-some-brexit-campaigners-begin-backpedaling.html) and later [accused of breaking election rules](https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/vote-leave-fined-and-referred-police-breaking-electoral-law), withdrawal from the European Union emerged with the support of 52 percent of voters.
Image

Trucks waiting to enter the Port of Dover in England in December 2020. Increased border controls raised concerns about long backups.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Leaving is a big deal economically.
Europe has been Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and E.U. membership helped London cement its position as a global financial center.
For decades, British companies could move goods to and from the European Union without taxes or tariffs. People could move freely, too.
But as 2021 began, business changed for many — including British [automakers](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/business/british-auto-industry-brexit.html), who rely on suppliers across Europe, and [touring musicians](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/arts/music/peter-grimes-teatro-real-brexit.html), who suddenly faced a thicket of visa rules.
The agreement that London and Brussels reached late in 2020 avoided tariffs or quotas on goods. But traders still confronted new paperwork and unpredictable delays, sometimes resulting in [rotting cargoes](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/europe/brexit-britain-trade.html).
And the services sector — about [80 percent](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/) or more of British economic activity, comprising not only the financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was left dependent on patchwork decisions by European regulators.
Britain’s [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2021/), an independent official body, says trade with the European Union took a sharp hit in January and remained 15 percent down in August, even as business with other countries began to recover from pandemic effects. It estimates that [Britain’s economy will be 4 percent less productive](https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions) than it would have been inside the bloc.
## Brexit’s supporters say their aim is a ‘Global Britain.’
Opponents of Brexit describe it as an attempt to reclaim an imagined Britain of the past, one with [fewer European migrants](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/world/europe/pandemic-brexit-uk.html) and [more patriotic singing](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/world/europe/bbc-proms-johnson.html). But Mr. Johnson, like many prominent proponents, often presents it as [a way of embracing change](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/europe/brexit-britain.html).
Outside the E.U. single market, with its shared regulations, Britain can set rules to encourage innovation, although the deal permits either side to seek redress for regulatory changes that might create an unfair advantage.
Outside the bloc’s customs union, with its common tariffs, Britain can seek trade deals with countries such as India and the United States. It signed [a major trade deal with Australia](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/business/britain-australia-trade-deal.html) in June.
Some Brexit supporters also argue that ending free migration for European Union citizens will allow more flexibility for others — a case that [resonated in British Asian communities](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/inside-the-british-asian-brexit-vote-and-why-it-contains-a-few-surprises/) during the referendum campaign. When China imposed a security law last year on Hong Kong, Mr. Johnson [offered British residency rights](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/world/europe/boris-johnson-uk-hong-kong-china.html) to three million people in the city, though [without helping them leave](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/world/europe/johnson-brexit-hong-kong.html).
[A British agreement alongside the United States](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/us/politics/biden-australia-britain-china.html) in September to help Australia deploy nuclear submarines was hailed by Brexit supporters as a success for the new approach. It also [upset an Australian defense deal with France](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-move-dislodge-france-australia-submarine-deal-is-incoherent-french-ministers-2021-09-15/), striking a blow in [a rivalry that Brexit has sharpened](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/world/europe/brexit-britain-france-johnson-macron.html).
But most benefits of a Global Britain so far remain theoretical. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it expects barely any effect from new trade deals.
## In Northern Ireland, Brexit is waking old demons.
Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, has the country’s only land border with the European Union — [the politically delicate 310-mile frontier with the Republic of Ireland](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/business/ireland-border-brexit.html).
[Thousands died in decades of sectarian strife](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/world/europe/northern-ireland-troubles.html) there before a peace process in the 1990s, and both sides in the Brexit talks made it a priority to avoid reimposing border checks. They [struck a deal](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/world/europe/northern-ireland-brexit.html) that the region would keep following many European rules, so trucks could cross the Irish border freely, with [new paperwork](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/world/europe/truckers-uk-ports-brexit.html) for goods moving between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
The changes have prompted British companies to limit distribution there. Britain has indefinitely delayed some checks, as part of a back-and-forth that led Brussels to [begin](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/15/world/europe/northern-island-great-britain.html) and then later [suspend](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_21_4586) legal action.
The situation has contributed to a rise in sectarian tension, with [outbreaks of rioting](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/world/europe/Northern-Ireland-Brexit-Covid-Troubles.html) in the spring.
Mr. Johnson had [tense exchanges on the subject with President Emmanuel Macron of France](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/13/world/g7-summit#northern-ireland-uk-eu) at the Group of 7 summit in June, where President Biden is also said to have raised it privately.
The prime minister has said that this part of the Brexit agreement, [known as the Northern Ireland protocol](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/world/europe/northern-ireland-protocol-uk.html), might have to be abandoned if it cannot be rewritten. European officials said they [would seek creative solutions but would not renegotiate](https://twitter.com/MarosSefcovic/status/1417897904975585282).
Image

Parliament in London. Euroskeptic lawmakers in Britain pushed for the country to leave the bloc’s single market and customs union.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Scotland could make its own split.
Along with Northern Ireland, Scotland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, with a vote of more than 60 percent to remain in the European Union. That stark divergence of opinion has [shaken the far older union between England and Scotland](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/world/scotland-election-brexit-independence.html).
[Scots voted against independence from Britain in a 2014 referendum](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/world/europe/scotland-independence-vote.html), but the pro-independence Scottish National Party, or S.N.P., has dominated the Scottish Parliament for more than a decade. It has promised to legislate for a rerun, with Brexit as its justification. A reversal would cost Britain 8 percent of its population, a third of its landmass and significant international prestige.
For a new referendum to be legal, however, it would almost certainly need the agreement of London, and Mr. Johnson has repeatedly said no. Scottish elections in May left the S.N.P. [one seat short of a majority](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/08/world/europe/scotland-election-independence-sturgeon.html), but it has support from smaller pro-independence parties. If neither side backs down, the result could be [a court battle, or even a constitutional crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/08/world/europe/brexit-scotland-independence.html).
Image

Fishing rights were among the most stubborn sticking points in the negotiations for Britain’s leaving the bloc’s single market and customs union.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Fishing remains a sore point.
Britain’s fishing fleet is a small fraction of the size it reached in the middle of the last century — a decline for which Brexit proponents have long blamed E.U. rules on sharing access to fisheries.
The British government cast its split from the European Union as a chance to revive an industry that was also [a storied way of life](https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio2/radioballads/original/singingthefishing.shtml).
In the trade deal negotiations, both sides had to compromise: E.U. boats kept more rights in British waters than Britain had demanded, but over a shorter period than Brussels had called for. Tensions are still high: France [detained a British trawler](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/world/europe/france-detains-british-boat.html) in October, citing a dispute over licenses for dozens of French vessels. And in May, Britain [sent Royal Navy ships](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/world/europe/ships-france-uk-fishing.html) in response to a protest blockade by French fishing boats off the semiautonomous island of Jersey.
That may not help British fishing companies, which long sold much of their catch in Europe. Some seafood exporters say delays from new checks could [drive them out of business](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/europe/scotland-seafood-brexit-.html).
## What’s next?
For bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants, the Dec. 24 trade agreement was only the beginning of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment.
Britain has been short of customs agents to deal with the tens of millions of declarations now needed, industry experts said. It has repeatedly [delayed some of its own new border checks](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/world/europe/britain-brexit-border-checks.html), with several deadlines [pushed to July 2022](https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-09-14/hcws285).
In the four years after Britain’s referendum, the number of Europeans migrating to the country for work plunged, and British companies sent employees to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt. The number of jobs that will be relocated, or created in different places, is still becoming clear.
But already, many British businesses say they are [struggling to fill positions](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/business/britain-unfilled-jobs-crisis.html) that might once have been taken by E.U. workers, presenting a risk to Britain’s pandemic recovery. [A lack of truck drivers](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/business/britain-truck-driver-shortage.html), echoed in other countries but exacerbated by Brexit, has caused passing shortages of a bewildering range of items including [Nando’s chicken](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/europe/nandos-chicken-shortage-closures-britain.html) and Haribo sweets.
And the future of some E.U. citizens in Britain remains uncertain. More than two million have been granted “settled status,” the right to stay indefinitely. But applications closed at the end of June, and the process has made few provisions for those unable to complete it online, much less for those who don’t realize they need permission to stay somewhere they have lived for decades.
Image

The City of London, Britain’s financial hub. E.U. membership helped the capital cement its position as a global banking center.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Stephen Castle and Mark Landler contributed reporting.
[Benjamin Mueller](https://www.nytimes.com/by/benjamin-mueller) is a health and science reporter. Previously, he covered the coronavirus pandemic as a correspondent in London and the police in New York.
A version of this article appears in print on May 10, 2021, Section A, Page 8 of the New York edition with the headline: With Brexit Done, Europe Begins a New Era of Trade. [Order Reprints](https://nytimes.wrightsmedia.com/) \| [Today’s Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) \| [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp8HYKU.html?campaignId=48JQY)
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Almost a year after it took full effect, the consequences of Britain’s split from the European Union are still unfolding. Here is a guide to what it means, how it came about and what the future may hold.

Celebrating in London in January 2020 as Britain officially left the European Union. A transition period ran until the end of 2020.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Nov. 8, 2021
Britain broke from the European Union’s regulatory orbit on Jan. 1, casting off nearly a half-century inside the bloc and embarking on what analysts described as the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations between countries.
Far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the rest of Europe, the split, known as [Brexit](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/world/europe/uk-brexit-estonia-business.html), has opened a new chapter — one that could reshape not only the country’s economy, foreign policy and politics, but even its borders.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks of creating a more agile “Global Britain,” with stronger ties to the United States and other democracies, like Australia, India and South Korea.
But [while that plan has hit setbacks](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/world/europe/boris-johnson-cabinet-reshuffle.html), risks from the new dispensation have quickly become evident, including on empty supermarket shelves as the country struggles with a shortage of truck drivers.
And arrangements for the sensitive territory of Northern Ireland have fueled rioting and diplomatic tensions.
## Let’s start with the basics.
Why “Brexit”?
A portmanteau of the words Britain and exit, Brexit caught on as shorthand for the proposal that Britain leave the European Union and change its relationship with the bloc on trade, security and migration.
Britain has debated the pros and cons of a club of European nations almost since the idea was broached, after World War II. It joined in 1973 — and held a referendum on whether to leave less than three years later. Then, 67 percent of voters supported staying.
But that was hardly the end of the argument.
In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron [promised a new national referendum](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/world/europe/cameron-britain-referendum-european-union.html?module=inline). The options were “remain” or “leave,” and Mr. Cameron was convinced that “remain” would win easily.
Image

Trucks waiting to enter the Port of Dover in England in December 2020. Increased border controls raised concerns about long backups.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Leaving is a big deal economically.
Europe has been Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and E.U. membership helped London cement its position as a global financial center.
For decades, British companies could move goods to and from the European Union without taxes or tariffs. People could move freely, too.
But as 2021 began, business changed for many — including British [automakers](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/business/british-auto-industry-brexit.html), who rely on suppliers across Europe, and [touring musicians](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/arts/music/peter-grimes-teatro-real-brexit.html), who suddenly faced a thicket of visa rules.
The agreement that London and Brussels reached late in 2020 avoided tariffs or quotas on goods. But traders still confronted new paperwork and unpredictable delays, sometimes resulting in [rotting cargoes](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/europe/brexit-britain-trade.html).
And the services sector — about [80 percent](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/) or more of British economic activity, comprising not only the financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was left dependent on patchwork decisions by European regulators.
Britain’s [Office for Budget Responsibility](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2021/), an independent official body, says trade with the European Union took a sharp hit in January and remained 15 percent down in August, even as business with other countries began to recover from pandemic effects. It estimates that [Britain’s economy will be 4 percent less productive](https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions) than it would have been inside the bloc.
## Brexit’s supporters say their aim is a ‘Global Britain.’
Opponents of Brexit describe it as an attempt to reclaim an imagined Britain of the past, one with [fewer European migrants](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/world/europe/pandemic-brexit-uk.html) and [more patriotic singing](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/world/europe/bbc-proms-johnson.html). But Mr. Johnson, like many prominent proponents, often presents it as [a way of embracing change](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/europe/brexit-britain.html).
Image

Parliament in London. Euroskeptic lawmakers in Britain pushed for the country to leave the bloc’s single market and customs union.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Scotland could make its own split.
Along with Northern Ireland, Scotland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, with a vote of more than 60 percent to remain in the European Union. That stark divergence of opinion has [shaken the far older union between England and Scotland](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/world/scotland-election-brexit-independence.html).
[Scots voted against independence from Britain in a 2014 referendum](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/world/europe/scotland-independence-vote.html), but the pro-independence Scottish National Party, or S.N.P., has dominated the Scottish Parliament for more than a decade. It has promised to legislate for a rerun, with Brexit as its justification. A reversal would cost Britain 8 percent of its population, a third of its landmass and significant international prestige.
For a new referendum to be legal, however, it would almost certainly need the agreement of London, and Mr. Johnson has repeatedly said no. Scottish elections in May left the S.N.P. [one seat short of a majority](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/08/world/europe/scotland-election-independence-sturgeon.html), but it has support from smaller pro-independence parties. If neither side backs down, the result could be [a court battle, or even a constitutional crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/08/world/europe/brexit-scotland-independence.html).
Image

Fishing rights were among the most stubborn sticking points in the negotiations for Britain’s leaving the bloc’s single market and customs union.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
## Fishing remains a sore point.
Britain’s fishing fleet is a small fraction of the size it reached in the middle of the last century — a decline for which Brexit proponents have long blamed E.U. rules on sharing access to fisheries.
The British government cast its split from the European Union as a chance to revive an industry that was also [a storied way of life](https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio2/radioballads/original/singingthefishing.shtml).
In the trade deal negotiations, both sides had to compromise: E.U. boats kept more rights in British waters than Britain had demanded, but over a shorter period than Brussels had called for. Tensions are still high: France [detained a British trawler](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/world/europe/france-detains-british-boat.html) in October, citing a dispute over licenses for dozens of French vessels. And in May, Britain [sent Royal Navy ships](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/world/europe/ships-france-uk-fishing.html) in response to a protest blockade by French fishing boats off the semiautonomous island of Jersey.
That may not help British fishing companies, which long sold much of their catch in Europe. Some seafood exporters say delays from new checks could [drive them out of business](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/europe/scotland-seafood-brexit-.html).
## What’s next?
For bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants, the Dec. 24 trade agreement was only the beginning of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment.
Britain has been short of customs agents to deal with the tens of millions of declarations now needed, industry experts said. It has repeatedly [delayed some of its own new border checks](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/world/europe/britain-brexit-border-checks.html), with several deadlines [pushed to July 2022](https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-09-14/hcws285).
In the four years after Britain’s referendum, the number of Europeans migrating to the country for work plunged, and British companies sent employees to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt. The number of jobs that will be relocated, or created in different places, is still becoming clear.
But already, many British businesses say they are [struggling to fill positions](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/business/britain-unfilled-jobs-crisis.html) that might once have been taken by E.U. workers, presenting a risk to Britain’s pandemic recovery. [A lack of truck drivers](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/business/britain-truck-driver-shortage.html), echoed in other countries but exacerbated by Brexit, has caused passing shortages of a bewildering range of items including [Nando’s chicken](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/europe/nandos-chicken-shortage-closures-britain.html) and Haribo sweets.
And the future of some E.U. citizens in Britain remains uncertain. More than two million have been granted “settled status,” the right to stay indefinitely. But applications closed at the end of June, and the process has made few provisions for those unable to complete it online, much less for those who don’t realize they need permission to stay somewhere they have lived for decades.
Image

The City of London, Britain’s financial hub. E.U. membership helped the capital cement its position as a global banking center.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Stephen Castle and Mark Landler contributed reporting.
[Benjamin Mueller](https://www.nytimes.com/by/benjamin-mueller) is a health and science reporter. Previously, he covered the coronavirus pandemic as a correspondent in London and the police in New York.
A version of this article appears in print on May 10, 2021, Section A, Page 8 of the New York edition with the headline: With Brexit Done, Europe Begins a New Era of Trade. [Order Reprints](https://nytimes.wrightsmedia.com/) \| [Today’s Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) \| [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp8HYKU.html?campaignId=48JQY)
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