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News Analysis
Tariffs and other restrictions between the United States and China are reverberating in unpredictable ways.
President Trump has imposed 50 percent tariffs on most steel and aluminum coming into the United States, and some other countries have followed with steel levies of their own.
Credit...
Desiré van den Berg for The New York Times
Oct. 14, 2025
One of the worldâs main number crunchers released its latest economic report on Tuesday. But the
middling forecast
from the International Monetary Fund doesnât begin to capture the helter-skelter ride the global economy is on.
Even as the I.M.F. was preparing its report, a flurry of developments were already altering the picture.
New U.S. tariffs
on imported wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets that are expected to drive up the
cost of home building
took effect on Tuesday. So did the opening round of
higher port entry fees
that China and the United States will impose on each otherâs vessels.
Tuesdayâs turn of the trade wheel was just one click in a series of repercussions set in motion by President Trumpâs vow to smash the worldâs economic order. More will follow.
Last week, Beijing decided to sharply step up curbs on its export of
rare earth metals,
materials that are essential for the manufacturing of semiconductors, cellphones, wind turbines and nearly every other modern gadget. New restrictions on equipment needed to produce batteries for electric cars are also scheduled to take effect next month.
Mr. Trumpâs initial fury softened over the weekend, after his response led to the sharpest decline in stocks since April, when the presidentâs initial barrage of tariffs was announced. Still, his threat to slap an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports was left dangling.
Image
U.S.-China trade tensions are rippling globally, with Chinaâs export limits hitting European automakers and U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made ships affecting foreign carriers docking in America.
Credit...
Erin Schaff/The New York Times
âThe U.S.-China relationship is highly volatile,â said
Richard Portes
, a professor at the London Business School. âOne doesnât really know what to expect from one day to the next, and that is typical of the current administration.â
Why is this story labeled âNews Analysisâ?
Â
In this format, reporters with deep experience in the subject draw on their expertise to help you better understand an event. They step back from the breaking news to evaluate its significance and possible ramifications, but they may not inject their personal opinions.
The
souped-up tension
between the two economic superpowers is catching other countries â that is, almost every country â in the crossfire. Chinaâs restrictions on metals and magnets, for instance, would affect European automakers that use those materials and ship them across borders within Europe. And the levies on ships made in China apply even to non-Chinese shipping companies stopping at American ports.
On Tuesday, the Chinese government ratcheted up the retaliation by adding
five American subsidiaries
of the South Korean shipping company Hanwha to its sanctions list, accusing the subsidiaries of âsupporting and assistingâ the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.
Beijing and Washington are also essentially pressuring nations around the globe to take sides. Mexico, one of the worldâs biggest buyers of Chinese cars, proposed
a 50 percent
tariff last month on those vehicles after heavy lobbying from the Trump administration.
India, meanwhile, has
moved closer to China
since the White House, piqued by New Delhiâs continued purchase of Russian oil, imposed tariffs up to 50 percent on Indian goods. In August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi
visited
China for the first time in seven years to attend a security and economic conference â a public display by Indiaâs leader that his country has plenty of allies should the Trump administration continue to single it out for punishment.
Image
Beijing and Washington are pressuring nations to take sides. After U.S. lobbying, Mexico â a major buyer of Chinese cars â proposed a 50 percent tariff on them last month.
Credit...
Benedicte Desrus for The New York Times
Since Mr. Trump took office, shifts in global trade policy have happened both at high speed and in slow motion, reverberating in broad and unpredictable ways.
When Mr. Trump announced his plan this summer to slap
50 percent tariffs
on most steel and aluminum coming into the United States, British steel makers felt lucky. Their government had already
struck a deal
that their steel would be tariffed at only half that amount â 25 percent.
But the mood in Britain darkened considerably last week when the European Union announced its own set of punishing tariffs on steel imported into its 27-nation bloc. The policy delivered a gut punch to Britainâs steel industry, which sends nearly
80 percent
of its exports to the European Union.
Britain, though, wasnât the target of the policy â just a bystander to moves aimed at Beijing and Washington.
The 50 percent E.U. tariff was directed at China, which has been accused of
dumping underpriced steel
on the global market. The tax was also designed with an eye to putting the European Union in a better negotiating position with the United States.
âThe Union is ready to work with like-minded countries with a view to ring-fencing their economies from global overcapacity,â the European Unionâs executive arm said last week. âWe will continue exploring ways of working together with the U.S.â
Image
The trade clash between the worldâs two largest economies is rippling worldwide â ships made in China face U.S. tariffs when docking at American ports.
Credit...
Scott McIntyre for The New York Times
The protectionist impulse is also going viral, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico taking steps to shield their homegrown steel makers.
Despite the frequent swerves in trade policy, though, the global economy will remain highly integrated, said
Lucrezia Reichlin
, a professor at the London Business School, even as the center of gravity shifts toward Asia and away from the West.
For now, growth is slowing in both the
United States
and
China
, while a pervasive unpredictability characterizes the short- and long-term outlooks.
Mr. Portes at the London Business School summed up the dynamic between the worldâs two largest economies: âChina has stable, clear and determined objectives. The Trump administration changes from day to day, in its views and its policies.â
âThe degree of uncertainty is huge,â he added, âand that has consequences for the global economy.â
Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Brussels.
Patricia Cohen
writes about global economics for The Times and is based in London.
A version of this article appears in print on
Oct. 15, 2025
, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: U.S.-China Trade Warâs Ripple Effects
.
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News Analysis
# Trumpâs Trade War With China Catches the World in Its Crossfire
Tariffs and other restrictions between the United States and China are reverberating in unpredictable ways.
- Share full article
- 296

President Trump has imposed 50 percent tariffs on most steel and aluminum coming into the United States, and some other countries have followed with steel levies of their own.Credit...Desiré van den Berg for The New York Times
[](https://www.nytimes.com/by/patricia-cohen)
By [Patricia Cohen](https://www.nytimes.com/by/patricia-cohen)
Patricia Cohen writes about the global economy from London.
Oct. 14, 2025
[é
èŻ»çźäœäžæç](https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20251015/us-china-trade-tariffs-global-economy/ "Read in Simplified Chinese")[é±èźçčé«äžæç](https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20251015/us-china-trade-tariffs-global-economy/zh-hant/ "Read in Traditional Chinese")
One of the worldâs main number crunchers released its latest economic report on Tuesday. But the [middling forecast](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/imf-report-economy-trade-inflation.html) from the International Monetary Fund doesnât begin to capture the helter-skelter ride the global economy is on.
Even as the I.M.F. was preparing its report, a flurry of developments were already altering the picture. [New U.S. tariffs](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/economy/trump-tariffs-lumber-furniture-china.html) on imported wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets that are expected to drive up the [cost of home building](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/business/tariffs-lumber-furniture-housing-crisis.html?searchResultPosition=3) took effect on Tuesday. So did the opening round of [higher port entry fees](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/china-shipping-us-ports.html) that China and the United States will impose on each otherâs vessels.
Tuesdayâs turn of the trade wheel was just one click in a series of repercussions set in motion by President Trumpâs vow to smash the worldâs economic order. More will follow.
Last week, Beijing decided to sharply step up curbs on its export of [rare earth metals,](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/business/china-rare-earth-exports.html) materials that are essential for the manufacturing of semiconductors, cellphones, wind turbines and nearly every other modern gadget. New restrictions on equipment needed to produce batteries for electric cars are also scheduled to take effect next month.
Mr. Trumpâs initial fury softened over the weekend, after his response led to the sharpest decline in stocks since April, when the presidentâs initial barrage of tariffs was announced. Still, his threat to slap an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports was left dangling.
Image

U.S.-China trade tensions are rippling globally, with Chinaâs export limits hitting European automakers and U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made ships affecting foreign carriers docking in America.Credit...Erin Schaff/The New York Times
âThe U.S.-China relationship is highly volatile,â said [Richard Portes](https://www.london.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-profiles/p/portes-r), a professor at the London Business School. âOne doesnât really know what to expect from one day to the next, and that is typical of the current administration.â
Why is this story labeled âNews Analysisâ? In this format, reporters with deep experience in the subject draw on their expertise to help you better understand an event. They step back from the breaking news to evaluate its significance and possible ramifications, but they may not inject their personal opinions.
The [souped-up tension](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/14/us/trump-news/0c1360f9-99bf-526b-a4a1-4267869b191d?smid=url-share) between the two economic superpowers is catching other countries â that is, almost every country â in the crossfire. Chinaâs restrictions on metals and magnets, for instance, would affect European automakers that use those materials and ship them across borders within Europe. And the levies on ships made in China apply even to non-Chinese shipping companies stopping at American ports.
On Tuesday, the Chinese government ratcheted up the retaliation by adding [five American subsidiaries](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/china-shipping-us-ports.html) of the South Korean shipping company Hanwha to its sanctions list, accusing the subsidiaries of âsupporting and assistingâ the United States in its moves in the shipbuilding industry.
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Beijing and Washington are also essentially pressuring nations around the globe to take sides. Mexico, one of the worldâs biggest buyers of Chinese cars, proposed [a 50 percent](https://www.ft.com/content/677df57b-6c83-48c6-9ec5-57bd0eb4693f) tariff last month on those vehicles after heavy lobbying from the Trump administration.
India, meanwhile, has [moved closer to China](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/china-using-sco-summit-and-victory-day-parade-showcase-its-vision-new-world-order) since the White House, piqued by New Delhiâs continued purchase of Russian oil, imposed tariffs up to 50 percent on Indian goods. In August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi [visited](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/briefing/xi-modi-putin-summit-tianjin.html) China for the first time in seven years to attend a security and economic conference â a public display by Indiaâs leader that his country has plenty of allies should the Trump administration continue to single it out for punishment.
Image

Beijing and Washington are pressuring nations to take sides. After U.S. lobbying, Mexico â a major buyer of Chinese cars â proposed a 50 percent tariff on them last month.Credit...Benedicte Desrus for The New York Times
Since Mr. Trump took office, shifts in global trade policy have happened both at high speed and in slow motion, reverberating in broad and unpredictable ways.
When Mr. Trump announced his plan this summer to slap [50 percent tariffs](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/business/economy/trump-tariffs-steel-aluminum.html?searchResultPosition=4) on most steel and aluminum coming into the United States, British steel makers felt lucky. Their government had already [struck a deal](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/business/trump-uk-us-trade-steel.html?searchResultPosition=4) that their steel would be tariffed at only half that amount â 25 percent.
But the mood in Britain darkened considerably last week when the European Union announced its own set of punishing tariffs on steel imported into its 27-nation bloc. The policy delivered a gut punch to Britainâs steel industry, which sends nearly [80 percent](https://www.salford.ac.uk/news/eu-proposes-steel-tariff-cuts-uk-steel-industry-could-face-major-supply-chain-disruption#:~:text=%E2%80%9CCurrently%2C%20the%20EU%20is%20the,of%20all%20UK%20steel%20exports.) of its exports to the European Union.
Britain, though, wasnât the target of the policy â just a bystander to moves aimed at Beijing and Washington.
The 50 percent E.U. tariff was directed at China, which has been accused of [dumping underpriced steel](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/25/business/steel-overcapacity-china.html) on the global market. The tax was also designed with an eye to putting the European Union in a better negotiating position with the United States.
âThe Union is ready to work with like-minded countries with a view to ring-fencing their economies from global overcapacity,â the European Unionâs executive arm said last week. âWe will continue exploring ways of working together with the U.S.â
Image

The trade clash between the worldâs two largest economies is rippling worldwide â ships made in China face U.S. tariffs when docking at American ports.Credit...Scott McIntyre for The New York Times
The protectionist impulse is also going viral, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico taking steps to shield their homegrown steel makers.
Despite the frequent swerves in trade policy, though, the global economy will remain highly integrated, said [Lucrezia Reichlin](https://www.london.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-profiles/r/reichlin-l), a professor at the London Business School, even as the center of gravity shifts toward Asia and away from the West.
For now, growth is slowing in both the [United States](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/business/us-economy-grew-in-second-quarter-as-tariffs-scrambled-data.html) and [China](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/business/china-economy-july-tariffs.html), while a pervasive unpredictability characterizes the short- and long-term outlooks.
Mr. Portes at the London Business School summed up the dynamic between the worldâs two largest economies: âChina has stable, clear and determined objectives. The Trump administration changes from day to day, in its views and its policies.â
âThe degree of uncertainty is huge,â he added, âand that has consequences for the global economy.â
Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Brussels.
[Patricia Cohen](https://www.nytimes.com/by/patricia-cohen) writes about global economics for The Times and is based in London.
A version of this article appears in print on Oct. 15, 2025, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: U.S.-China Trade Warâs Ripple Effects. [Order Reprints](https://nytimes.wrightsmedia.com/) \| [Todayâs Paper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) \| [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp8HYKU.html?campaignId=48JQY)
See more on: [Donald Trump](https://www.nytimes.com/spotlight/donald-trump), [International Monetary Fund](https://www.nytimes.com/topic/organization/international-monetary-fund)
Read 296 comments
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| Readable Markdown | null |
| Shard | 84 (laksa) |
| Root Hash | 4566504020376537684 |
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