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| Meta Title | Profit and Loss Forecast for Small Businesses: Step‑by‑Step Guide | ||||||||||||||||||
| Meta Description | Learn how to create a profit and loss forecast for your small business, estimate revenue and costs, calculate profit margin, and compare P&L forecasts to cash flow. | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Boilerpipe Text | Turn your guesses into a game plan: forecast sales, wrangle costs, and see if your business really pays you back.
By
,
Attorney
UC Law San Francisco
Updated by
Amanda Hayes
,
Attorney
University of North Carolina School of Law
A profit and loss (P&L) forecast is a projection of how much money your
small business
will bring in by
selling products or services
. In good times, you use it to ensure that there'll be enough money coming in to exceed the costs of providing the goods and services so you can make a solid profit. In tough times, your P&L can play an essential role in showing you what kind of plan you need to return to break even, so you'll be able to survive until better times come.
If you use accounting software, such as Intuit's QuickBooks, it'll generate a P&L forecast for you once you enter monthly sales and expense estimates. You can also create your own forecast using a basic spreadsheet. Just look at the sample P&L below to see how to set up this important
accounting document
.
In This Article
Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue
Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs
Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit
Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs
Your Gross Profit Margin
Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement
Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue
Start by estimating how much you'll take in each month during the next six to 12 months. No question, this number will be a guesstimate. If you're already in business, you can extrapolate from current sales levels and allow for significant seasonal fluctuations and other known variables.
Example:
Suppose Emme owns and operates a consignment shop that sells gently used clothes for women and children. She buys her inventory from moms who bring in their own and their children's clothing to sell. Emme is careful to buy mostly well-known brands (and when possible, high-end ones) that she can sell for a premium.
Emme was selling $15,000 of clothing per month when the economy took a dive. Sales have been down almost 30% lately. So Emme wants to create a more realistic profit and loss forecast for the upcoming year. She estimates that she'll bring in an average of $10,000 per month in sales over the next year—more at back-to-school time and the holidays, less during the slow summer months.
Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs
Now estimate the monthly cost to you of the goods or services you'll sell as part of achieving your sales estimate. These are your variable costs.
These costs are called "variable," or sometimes "incremental," because they go up or down depending on the volume of products or services you produce or sell. (And in retail, they're called "cost of goods.") For example, if you're a mail-order business, then the more you sell, the more you'll pay for shipping costs.
Other variable costs include:
inventory
supplies
materials
packaging, and
sometimes, labor used in providing your product or service.
In the case of services, count labor costs as variable costs only if they'll go up or down depending on how many sales you make. For instance, if you have to
hire independent contractors
or temps to cover busy periods, those labor costs are variable.
But if you employ a manager, bookkeeper, or
marketing
employee, you'll have to pay their salaries no matter how much sales go up or down. These wages should be listed under fixed costs (overhead) in Step 4, below.
Example:
Emme used to spend more than $6,500 per month to buy used clothing to resell. But because sales have been down so much, she'll need less inventory. She estimates that she'll probably spend only about $4,500 per month.
Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit
Now, simply subtract your average monthly variable costs from your estimated average monthly sales revenue to get your estimated monthly gross profit. This number will let you calculate how much of each dollar of sales you get to keep. From that amount, however, you'll have to pay for overhead costs. Anything left over is your net profit.
Example:
Emme subtracts her inventory costs of $4,500 per month from her sales estimate of $10,000 per month. She estimates her new average monthly gross profit will be $5,500. Again, this number is her gross profit before subtracting her overhead, which is discussed below.
Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs
Your net profit is the most important number you need to determine. Your net profit lets you see whether you'll have any money left after paying your overhead costs or, failing that, whether you can at least break even. To arrive at your net profit, make a list of your monthly fixed costs, which are items such as:
rent from your
commercial lease
employees' wages (including
payroll taxes
, benefits, and
workers' comp costs
)
your salary if you plan to
pay yourself
a regular wage regardless of how profitable the business is (but if, as is typical, you'll just take what's left over after costs are paid, don't include your salary as a fixed cost)
utilities
telephone
insurance
office equipment
advertising, and
accounting, bookkeeping, or tax preparation fees.
Divide any annual expenses, such as insurance premiums, by 12 to get a monthly amount.
To arrive at your monthly net profit (or loss), subtract your average estimated monthly fixed costs from your monthly gross profit.
Example: Estimate Monthly Net Profit
Over the past year, Emme has been able to pay herself $50,000 from the business. But she knows that with sales dropping, this salary won't be possible in the coming year. She guesses she'll need to cut her take-home wages to $30,000—and if she can't bring home at least that amount for living expenses, she won't keep the shop open. So she includes $30,000 in her fixed costs.
Emme adds up her total fixed costs, including the following:
$1,000 for rent
$100 for utilities
$4,000 for labor (this amount includes $12,000 per year for a part-time assistant, employment taxes and costs, and her $30,000 salary), and
$100 for insurance (her annual premium is $1,200), and so on.
The total of her fixed costs comes to $5,500 per month. When she puts one month's numbers together in a spreadsheet, here's what it looks like.
January
Sales Revenue
10,000
Cost of Goods
4,500
Gross Profit
5,500
Fixed Costs
Rent
1,000
Labor
4,000
Utilities
100
Phone
30
Insurance
100
Advertising
40
Accounting
130
Miscellaneous
100
Total Fixed Costs
5,500
Net Profit (Loss)
0
When you're satisfied with your cost estimates for an average month, fill in estimates for six or 12 months. Then, for each month, subtract your total fixed expenses from your gross profit to get the net profit.
Example: Estimated Net Profit for Twelve Months
Emme fills in an entire year of sales estimates, with the usual dip in sales she experiences in summer and then upswings in September when the kids go back to school and in December, traditionally her best month. Then, using her estimate of $4,500 in monthly variable costs and her estimate of $5,500 in monthly fixed costs, she comes up with a net profit for each month. Emme notices that in the summer, she'll lose a little over $1,000 per month for a few months in a row, but will make it back up by December.
Emme's Profit and Loss Forecast
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sales Revenue
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
7,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
15,000
Variable Costs
4,500
4,500
4,500
4,500
4,500
3,600
3,600
3,150
5,400
4,500
4,500
6,750
Gross Profit
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
4,400
4,400
3,850
6,600
5,500
5,500
8,250
Fixed Costs
Rent
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Labor
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
Utilities
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Phone
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Insurance
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Advertising
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
Accounting
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
130
Miscellaneous
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Total Fixed Costs
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
Net Profit (Loss)
0
0
0
0
0
-1,100
-1,100
-1,650
1,100
0
0
2,750
Creating this new profit and loss forecast lets Emme see that she can't count on taking any extra profits out of the business for the next year. And if her sales estimates are too high, she won't be able to take home $30,000 over the year for living expenses. She needs to think long and hard about whether it makes sense to drain her savings account and continue toiling for a year in the hopes that the economy will rebound soon and allow her to make a good living again from the store.
Your Gross Profit Margin
It's also useful to know your gross profit margin. Gross profit margin measures the difference between the costs of producing a product or providing a service and what you're selling it for. In short, it lets you know how profitable your products and services are.
To get your profit margin, divide your estimated average monthly gross profit by your estimated monthly sales.
Example:
Emme divides her monthly gross profit of $5,500 (knowing that this figure varies in some months) by her $10,000 of sales. Her profit margin is 55%. Now she knows she'll get to keep, on average, about 55 cents of every sales dollar she takes in (before paying for overhead).
What Your Profit Margin Means
Profit margins can be used in many different ways.
Assessing profitability.
Some businesses regularly calculate their profit margin to monitor the profitability of their products or services. A decrease in profit margin over time usually means that variable costs have gone up—for instance, costs for raw materials, manufacturing, or labor. Rising variable costs should nudge the company to either look for new suppliers or raise prices.
Set pricing.
Other businesses use their anticipated profit margin to help them price products or services (and increase profitability). For example, suppose a business requires a profit margin of 60%. It produces a product that costs $20 to make. Using the profit margin formula ($20 Ă· (100% - 60%), it would set the retail price of its product at around $50. The business would make $30 in profit off of the $50 sale, a 60% profit margin.
(Some experts disagree with this use of profit margin, recommending instead that businesses start with the price they think customers will pay and then make sure the costs are low enough to make a profit.)
Evaluating new inventory.
Another way to use profit margins is to screen new products and services to sell. For instance, a retail gift shop might decide to add only new products that can be bought and sold at a price that yields a profit margin of 50%.
What's a Good Profit Margin?
The answer varies across industries. According to the NYU Stern School of Business, the
average profit margins per industry sector
include the following:
the farming and agricultural industry has a lower profit margin, around 13%
the software industry has traditionally had high profit margins, around 70%; and
the profit margins for restaurants and retail are somewhere in the middle, around 30%.
But without looking at the costs of a company's overhead, such as marketing and administration, profit margins don't give the whole picture of a company's profitability.
Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement
Both a P&L forecast and a
cash flow statement
are essential to assessing the financial state of your business. But they differ in their purpose and method of accounting.
Accounting methods.
A P&L forecast uses accrual accounting, meaning your revenue reflects how much your business makes and is owed. So, your revenue would include money your business has earned, but your
customer hasn't yet paid
. A cash flow statement uses cash basis accounting, meaning your revenue total doesn't include money your business is owed but hasn't yet received. You'll only count the money your business has been paid.
Purposes.
A business owner would use a P&L forecast to assess their
company's profitability
. You'll use your P&L statement to see if your business is a worthwhile venture. You'll use a cash flow statement to track the money going in and out of your business. Your cash flow statement has a more immediate purpose than the P&L forecast. Your cash flow statement will show you if your business has enough in the bank to pay for upcoming expenses. | ||||||||||||||||||
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# Basic Profit and Loss Forecast
## Turn your guesses into a game plan: forecast sales, wrangle costs, and see if your business really pays you back.
By **[Bethany K. Laurence](https://www.nolo.com/law-authors/bethany-laurence.html "Bethany K. Laurence, Attorney · UC Law San Francisco")**, **Attorney** UC Law San Francisco
Updated by **[Amanda Hayes](https://www.nolo.com/law-authors/amanda-hayes.html "Amanda Hayes, Attorney · University of North Carolina School of Law")**, **Attorney** University of North Carolina School of Law
Updated 2/23/2026
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A profit and loss (P\&L) forecast is a projection of how much money your [small business](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/small-business) will bring in by [selling products or services](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/selling-goods-services). In good times, you use it to ensure that there'll be enough money coming in to exceed the costs of providing the goods and services so you can make a solid profit. In tough times, your P\&L can play an essential role in showing you what kind of plan you need to return to break even, so you'll be able to survive until better times come.
If you use accounting software, such as Intuit's QuickBooks, it'll generate a P\&L forecast for you once you enter monthly sales and expense estimates. You can also create your own forecast using a basic spreadsheet. Just look at the sample P\&L below to see how to set up this important [accounting document](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/bookkeeping-accounting-basics-29653.html).
[In This Article](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#toc-collapse)
- [Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-1-estimate-future-revenue)
- [Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-2-estimate-your-variable-costs)
- [Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-3-estimate-your-gross-profit)
- [Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-4-calculate-your-net-profit-using-fixed-overhead-costs)
- [Your Gross Profit Margin](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#your-gross-profit-margin)
- [Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#difference-between-profit-and-loss-forecast-and-cash-flow-statement)
## Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue
Start by estimating how much you'll take in each month during the next six to 12 months. No question, this number will be a guesstimate. If you're already in business, you can extrapolate from current sales levels and allow for significant seasonal fluctuations and other known variables.
**Example:** Suppose Emme owns and operates a consignment shop that sells gently used clothes for women and children. She buys her inventory from moms who bring in their own and their children's clothing to sell. Emme is careful to buy mostly well-known brands (and when possible, high-end ones) that she can sell for a premium.
Emme was selling \$15,000 of clothing per month when the economy took a dive. Sales have been down almost 30% lately. So Emme wants to create a more realistic profit and loss forecast for the upcoming year. She estimates that she'll bring in an average of \$10,000 per month in sales over the next year—more at back-to-school time and the holidays, less during the slow summer months.
## Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs
Now estimate the monthly cost to you of the goods or services you'll sell as part of achieving your sales estimate. These are your variable costs.
These costs are called "variable," or sometimes "incremental," because they go up or down depending on the volume of products or services you produce or sell. (And in retail, they're called "cost of goods.") For example, if you're a mail-order business, then the more you sell, the more you'll pay for shipping costs.
Other variable costs include:
- inventory
- supplies
- materials
- packaging, and
- sometimes, labor used in providing your product or service.
In the case of services, count labor costs as variable costs only if they'll go up or down depending on how many sales you make. For instance, if you have to [hire independent contractors](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/contractors-freelancers) or temps to cover busy periods, those labor costs are variable.
But if you employ a manager, bookkeeper, or [marketing](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/marketing-advertising) employee, you'll have to pay their salaries no matter how much sales go up or down. These wages should be listed under fixed costs (overhead) in Step 4, below.
**Example:** Emme used to spend more than \$6,500 per month to buy used clothing to resell. But because sales have been down so much, she'll need less inventory. She estimates that she'll probably spend only about \$4,500 per month.
## Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit
Now, simply subtract your average monthly variable costs from your estimated average monthly sales revenue to get your estimated monthly gross profit. This number will let you calculate how much of each dollar of sales you get to keep. From that amount, however, you'll have to pay for overhead costs. Anything left over is your net profit.
**Example:** Emme subtracts her inventory costs of \$4,500 per month from her sales estimate of \$10,000 per month. She estimates her new average monthly gross profit will be \$5,500. Again, this number is her gross profit before subtracting her overhead, which is discussed below.
## Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs
Your net profit is the most important number you need to determine. Your net profit lets you see whether you'll have any money left after paying your overhead costs or, failing that, whether you can at least break even. To arrive at your net profit, make a list of your monthly fixed costs, which are items such as:
- rent from your [commercial lease](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/commercial-lease-basics-29934.html)
- employees' wages (including [payroll taxes](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/state-guide-income-tax-withholding-requirements.html), benefits, and [workers' comp costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/workers-compensation-basics-employers-30333.html))
- your salary if you plan to [pay yourself](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-pay-yourself-as-a-small-business-owner.html) a regular wage regardless of how profitable the business is (but if, as is typical, you'll just take what's left over after costs are paid, don't include your salary as a fixed cost)
- utilities
- telephone
- [insurance](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/what-types-insurance-does-your-small-business-need.html)
- office equipment
- advertising, and
- accounting, bookkeeping, or tax preparation fees.
Divide any annual expenses, such as insurance premiums, by 12 to get a monthly amount.
To arrive at your monthly net profit (or loss), subtract your average estimated monthly fixed costs from your monthly gross profit.
### Example: Estimate Monthly Net Profit
Over the past year, Emme has been able to pay herself \$50,000 from the business. But she knows that with sales dropping, this salary won't be possible in the coming year. She guesses she'll need to cut her take-home wages to \$30,000—and if she can't bring home at least that amount for living expenses, she won't keep the shop open. So she includes \$30,000 in her fixed costs.
Emme adds up her total fixed costs, including the following:
- \$1,000 for rent
- \$100 for utilities
- \$4,000 for labor (this amount includes \$12,000 per year for a part-time assistant, employment taxes and costs, and her \$30,000 salary), and
- \$100 for insurance (her annual premium is \$1,200), and so on.
The total of her fixed costs comes to \$5,500 per month. When she puts one month's numbers together in a spreadsheet, here's what it looks like.
| | | |
|---|---|---|
| **January** | | |
| **Sales Revenue** | **10,000** | |
| Cost of Goods | 4,500 | |
| **Gross Profit** | **5,500** | |
| **Fixed Costs** | | |
| Rent | 1,000 | |
| Labor | 4,000 | |
| Utilities | 100 | |
| Phone | 30 | |
| Insurance | 100 | |
| Advertising | 40 | |
| Accounting | 130 | |
| Miscellaneous | 100 | |
| **Total Fixed Costs** | **5,500** | |
| **Net Profit (Loss)** | **0** | |
When you're satisfied with your cost estimates for an average month, fill in estimates for six or 12 months. Then, for each month, subtract your total fixed expenses from your gross profit to get the net profit.
### Example: Estimated Net Profit for Twelve Months
Emme fills in an entire year of sales estimates, with the usual dip in sales she experiences in summer and then upswings in September when the kids go back to school and in December, traditionally her best month. Then, using her estimate of \$4,500 in monthly variable costs and her estimate of \$5,500 in monthly fixed costs, she comes up with a net profit for each month. Emme notices that in the summer, she'll lose a little over \$1,000 per month for a few months in a row, but will make it back up by December.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Emme's Profit and Loss Forecast** | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | **Jan** | **Feb** | **March** | **April** | **May** | **June** | **July** | **Aug** | **Sept** | **Oct** | **Nov** | **Dec** |
| **Sales Revenue** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **8,000** | **8,000** | **7,000** | **12,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **15,000** |
| Variable Costs | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,150 | 5,400 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 6,750 |
| **Gross Profit** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **4,400** | **4,400** | **3,850** | **6,600** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **8,250** |
| **Fixed Costs** | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Rent | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Labor | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Utilities | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Phone | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Insurance | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Advertising | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Accounting | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
| Miscellaneous | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| **Total Fixed Costs** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** |
| **Net Profit (Loss)** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **\-1,100** | **\-1,100** | **\-1,650** | **1,100** | **0** | **0** | **2,750** |
Creating this new profit and loss forecast lets Emme see that she can't count on taking any extra profits out of the business for the next year. And if her sales estimates are too high, she won't be able to take home \$30,000 over the year for living expenses. She needs to think long and hard about whether it makes sense to drain her savings account and continue toiling for a year in the hopes that the economy will rebound soon and allow her to make a good living again from the store.
## Your Gross Profit Margin
It's also useful to know your gross profit margin. Gross profit margin measures the difference between the costs of producing a product or providing a service and what you're selling it for. In short, it lets you know how profitable your products and services are.
To get your profit margin, divide your estimated average monthly gross profit by your estimated monthly sales.
> **Example:** Emme divides her monthly gross profit of \$5,500 (knowing that this figure varies in some months) by her \$10,000 of sales. Her profit margin is 55%. Now she knows she'll get to keep, on average, about 55 cents of every sales dollar she takes in (before paying for overhead).
### What Your Profit Margin Means
Profit margins can be used in many different ways.
**Assessing profitability.** Some businesses regularly calculate their profit margin to monitor the profitability of their products or services. A decrease in profit margin over time usually means that variable costs have gone up—for instance, costs for raw materials, manufacturing, or labor. Rising variable costs should nudge the company to either look for new suppliers or raise prices.
**Set pricing.** Other businesses use their anticipated profit margin to help them price products or services (and increase profitability). For example, suppose a business requires a profit margin of 60%. It produces a product that costs \$20 to make. Using the profit margin formula (\$20 Ă· (100% - 60%), it would set the retail price of its product at around \$50. The business would make \$30 in profit off of the \$50 sale, a 60% profit margin.
(Some experts disagree with this use of profit margin, recommending instead that businesses start with the price they think customers will pay and then make sure the costs are low enough to make a profit.)
**Evaluating new inventory.** Another way to use profit margins is to screen new products and services to sell. For instance, a retail gift shop might decide to add only new products that can be bought and sold at a price that yields a profit margin of 50%.
### What's a Good Profit Margin?
The answer varies across industries. According to the NYU Stern School of Business, the [average profit margins per industry sector](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html) include the following:
- the farming and agricultural industry has a lower profit margin, around 13%
- the software industry has traditionally had high profit margins, around 70%; and
- the profit margins for restaurants and retail are somewhere in the middle, around 30%.
But without looking at the costs of a company's overhead, such as marketing and administration, profit margins don't give the whole picture of a company's profitability.
## Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement
Both a P\&L forecast and a [cash flow statement](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-3.html) are essential to assessing the financial state of your business. But they differ in their purpose and method of accounting.
**Accounting methods.** A P\&L forecast uses accrual accounting, meaning your revenue reflects how much your business makes and is owed. So, your revenue would include money your business has earned, but your [customer hasn't yet paid](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/get-clients-pay-up-29988.html). A cash flow statement uses cash basis accounting, meaning your revenue total doesn't include money your business is owed but hasn't yet received. You'll only count the money your business has been paid.
**Purposes.** A business owner would use a P\&L forecast to assess their [company's profitability](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/will-business-make-money-29850.html). You'll use your P\&L statement to see if your business is a worthwhile venture. You'll use a cash flow statement to track the money going in and out of your business. Your cash flow statement has a more immediate purpose than the P\&L forecast. Your cash flow statement will show you if your business has enough in the bank to pay for upcoming expenses.
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In This Article
- [Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-1-estimate-future-revenue)
- [Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-2-estimate-your-variable-costs)
- [Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-3-estimate-your-gross-profit)
- [Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-4-calculate-your-net-profit-using-fixed-overhead-costs)
- [Your Gross Profit Margin](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#your-gross-profit-margin)
- [Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#difference-between-profit-and-loss-forecast-and-cash-flow-statement)
## Want More Legal Info? Nolo Can Help
Explore related offerings for additional insights in this area of law. Whether it’s another article, a book, a form, or a connection to an attorney, we’ve got solutions for all situations.
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[What Can Creditors Do If You Don't Pay?](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter4-4.html)
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[How to Support and Motivate Your Remaining Employees After Layoffs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-support-remaining-employees-after-layoffs.html)
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[Are You Personally Liable for Your Business's Debts?](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/business-debts-personal-liability-29905.html)
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| Readable Markdown | Turn your guesses into a game plan: forecast sales, wrangle costs, and see if your business really pays you back.
By , **Attorney** UC Law San Francisco
Updated by **[Amanda Hayes](https://www.nolo.com/law-authors/amanda-hayes.html "Amanda Hayes, Attorney · University of North Carolina School of Law")**, **Attorney** University of North Carolina School of Law
A profit and loss (P\&L) forecast is a projection of how much money your [small business](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/small-business) will bring in by [selling products or services](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/selling-goods-services). In good times, you use it to ensure that there'll be enough money coming in to exceed the costs of providing the goods and services so you can make a solid profit. In tough times, your P\&L can play an essential role in showing you what kind of plan you need to return to break even, so you'll be able to survive until better times come.
If you use accounting software, such as Intuit's QuickBooks, it'll generate a P\&L forecast for you once you enter monthly sales and expense estimates. You can also create your own forecast using a basic spreadsheet. Just look at the sample P\&L below to see how to set up this important [accounting document](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/bookkeeping-accounting-basics-29653.html).
[In This Article](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#toc-collapse)
- [Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-1-estimate-future-revenue)
- [Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-2-estimate-your-variable-costs)
- [Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-3-estimate-your-gross-profit)
- [Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#step-4-calculate-your-net-profit-using-fixed-overhead-costs)
- [Your Gross Profit Margin](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#your-gross-profit-margin)
- [Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-2.html#difference-between-profit-and-loss-forecast-and-cash-flow-statement)
## Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue
Start by estimating how much you'll take in each month during the next six to 12 months. No question, this number will be a guesstimate. If you're already in business, you can extrapolate from current sales levels and allow for significant seasonal fluctuations and other known variables.
**Example:** Suppose Emme owns and operates a consignment shop that sells gently used clothes for women and children. She buys her inventory from moms who bring in their own and their children's clothing to sell. Emme is careful to buy mostly well-known brands (and when possible, high-end ones) that she can sell for a premium.
Emme was selling \$15,000 of clothing per month when the economy took a dive. Sales have been down almost 30% lately. So Emme wants to create a more realistic profit and loss forecast for the upcoming year. She estimates that she'll bring in an average of \$10,000 per month in sales over the next year—more at back-to-school time and the holidays, less during the slow summer months.
## Step 2: Estimate Your Variable Costs
Now estimate the monthly cost to you of the goods or services you'll sell as part of achieving your sales estimate. These are your variable costs.
These costs are called "variable," or sometimes "incremental," because they go up or down depending on the volume of products or services you produce or sell. (And in retail, they're called "cost of goods.") For example, if you're a mail-order business, then the more you sell, the more you'll pay for shipping costs.
Other variable costs include:
- inventory
- supplies
- materials
- packaging, and
- sometimes, labor used in providing your product or service.
In the case of services, count labor costs as variable costs only if they'll go up or down depending on how many sales you make. For instance, if you have to [hire independent contractors](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/contractors-freelancers) or temps to cover busy periods, those labor costs are variable.
But if you employ a manager, bookkeeper, or [marketing](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/marketing-advertising) employee, you'll have to pay their salaries no matter how much sales go up or down. These wages should be listed under fixed costs (overhead) in Step 4, below.
**Example:** Emme used to spend more than \$6,500 per month to buy used clothing to resell. But because sales have been down so much, she'll need less inventory. She estimates that she'll probably spend only about \$4,500 per month.
## Step 3: Estimate Your Gross Profit
Now, simply subtract your average monthly variable costs from your estimated average monthly sales revenue to get your estimated monthly gross profit. This number will let you calculate how much of each dollar of sales you get to keep. From that amount, however, you'll have to pay for overhead costs. Anything left over is your net profit.
**Example:** Emme subtracts her inventory costs of \$4,500 per month from her sales estimate of \$10,000 per month. She estimates her new average monthly gross profit will be \$5,500. Again, this number is her gross profit before subtracting her overhead, which is discussed below.
## Step 4: Calculate Your Net Profit Using Fixed (Overhead) Costs
Your net profit is the most important number you need to determine. Your net profit lets you see whether you'll have any money left after paying your overhead costs or, failing that, whether you can at least break even. To arrive at your net profit, make a list of your monthly fixed costs, which are items such as:
- rent from your [commercial lease](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/commercial-lease-basics-29934.html)
- employees' wages (including [payroll taxes](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/state-guide-income-tax-withholding-requirements.html), benefits, and [workers' comp costs](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/workers-compensation-basics-employers-30333.html))
- your salary if you plan to [pay yourself](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-pay-yourself-as-a-small-business-owner.html) a regular wage regardless of how profitable the business is (but if, as is typical, you'll just take what's left over after costs are paid, don't include your salary as a fixed cost)
- utilities
- telephone
- [insurance](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/what-types-insurance-does-your-small-business-need.html)
- office equipment
- advertising, and
- accounting, bookkeeping, or tax preparation fees.
Divide any annual expenses, such as insurance premiums, by 12 to get a monthly amount.
To arrive at your monthly net profit (or loss), subtract your average estimated monthly fixed costs from your monthly gross profit.
### Example: Estimate Monthly Net Profit
Over the past year, Emme has been able to pay herself \$50,000 from the business. But she knows that with sales dropping, this salary won't be possible in the coming year. She guesses she'll need to cut her take-home wages to \$30,000—and if she can't bring home at least that amount for living expenses, she won't keep the shop open. So she includes \$30,000 in her fixed costs.
Emme adds up her total fixed costs, including the following:
- \$1,000 for rent
- \$100 for utilities
- \$4,000 for labor (this amount includes \$12,000 per year for a part-time assistant, employment taxes and costs, and her \$30,000 salary), and
- \$100 for insurance (her annual premium is \$1,200), and so on.
The total of her fixed costs comes to \$5,500 per month. When she puts one month's numbers together in a spreadsheet, here's what it looks like.
| | | |
|---|---|---|
| **January** | | |
| **Sales Revenue** | **10,000** | |
| Cost of Goods | 4,500 | |
| **Gross Profit** | **5,500** | |
| **Fixed Costs** | | |
| Rent | 1,000 | |
| Labor | 4,000 | |
| Utilities | 100 | |
| Phone | 30 | |
| Insurance | 100 | |
| Advertising | 40 | |
| Accounting | 130 | |
| Miscellaneous | 100 | |
| **Total Fixed Costs** | **5,500** | |
| **Net Profit (Loss)** | **0** | |
When you're satisfied with your cost estimates for an average month, fill in estimates for six or 12 months. Then, for each month, subtract your total fixed expenses from your gross profit to get the net profit.
### Example: Estimated Net Profit for Twelve Months
Emme fills in an entire year of sales estimates, with the usual dip in sales she experiences in summer and then upswings in September when the kids go back to school and in December, traditionally her best month. Then, using her estimate of \$4,500 in monthly variable costs and her estimate of \$5,500 in monthly fixed costs, she comes up with a net profit for each month. Emme notices that in the summer, she'll lose a little over \$1,000 per month for a few months in a row, but will make it back up by December.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Emme's Profit and Loss Forecast** | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | **Jan** | **Feb** | **March** | **April** | **May** | **June** | **July** | **Aug** | **Sept** | **Oct** | **Nov** | **Dec** |
| **Sales Revenue** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **8,000** | **8,000** | **7,000** | **12,000** | **10,000** | **10,000** | **15,000** |
| Variable Costs | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 3,600 | 3,600 | 3,150 | 5,400 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 6,750 |
| **Gross Profit** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **4,400** | **4,400** | **3,850** | **6,600** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **8,250** |
| **Fixed Costs** | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Rent | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Labor | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Utilities | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Phone | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Insurance | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Advertising | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Accounting | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
| Miscellaneous | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| **Total Fixed Costs** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** | **5,500** |
| **Net Profit (Loss)** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **0** | **\-1,100** | **\-1,100** | **\-1,650** | **1,100** | **0** | **0** | **2,750** |
Creating this new profit and loss forecast lets Emme see that she can't count on taking any extra profits out of the business for the next year. And if her sales estimates are too high, she won't be able to take home \$30,000 over the year for living expenses. She needs to think long and hard about whether it makes sense to drain her savings account and continue toiling for a year in the hopes that the economy will rebound soon and allow her to make a good living again from the store.
## Your Gross Profit Margin
It's also useful to know your gross profit margin. Gross profit margin measures the difference between the costs of producing a product or providing a service and what you're selling it for. In short, it lets you know how profitable your products and services are.
To get your profit margin, divide your estimated average monthly gross profit by your estimated monthly sales.
> **Example:** Emme divides her monthly gross profit of \$5,500 (knowing that this figure varies in some months) by her \$10,000 of sales. Her profit margin is 55%. Now she knows she'll get to keep, on average, about 55 cents of every sales dollar she takes in (before paying for overhead).
### What Your Profit Margin Means
Profit margins can be used in many different ways.
**Assessing profitability.** Some businesses regularly calculate their profit margin to monitor the profitability of their products or services. A decrease in profit margin over time usually means that variable costs have gone up—for instance, costs for raw materials, manufacturing, or labor. Rising variable costs should nudge the company to either look for new suppliers or raise prices.
**Set pricing.** Other businesses use their anticipated profit margin to help them price products or services (and increase profitability). For example, suppose a business requires a profit margin of 60%. It produces a product that costs \$20 to make. Using the profit margin formula (\$20 Ă· (100% - 60%), it would set the retail price of its product at around \$50. The business would make \$30 in profit off of the \$50 sale, a 60% profit margin.
(Some experts disagree with this use of profit margin, recommending instead that businesses start with the price they think customers will pay and then make sure the costs are low enough to make a profit.)
**Evaluating new inventory.** Another way to use profit margins is to screen new products and services to sell. For instance, a retail gift shop might decide to add only new products that can be bought and sold at a price that yields a profit margin of 50%.
### What's a Good Profit Margin?
The answer varies across industries. According to the NYU Stern School of Business, the [average profit margins per industry sector](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html) include the following:
- the farming and agricultural industry has a lower profit margin, around 13%
- the software industry has traditionally had high profit margins, around 70%; and
- the profit margins for restaurants and retail are somewhere in the middle, around 30%.
But without looking at the costs of a company's overhead, such as marketing and administration, profit margins don't give the whole picture of a company's profitability.
## Difference Between Profit and Loss Forecast and Cash Flow Statement
Both a P\&L forecast and a [cash flow statement](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/small-business-book/chapter14-3.html) are essential to assessing the financial state of your business. But they differ in their purpose and method of accounting.
**Accounting methods.** A P\&L forecast uses accrual accounting, meaning your revenue reflects how much your business makes and is owed. So, your revenue would include money your business has earned, but your [customer hasn't yet paid](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/get-clients-pay-up-29988.html). A cash flow statement uses cash basis accounting, meaning your revenue total doesn't include money your business is owed but hasn't yet received. You'll only count the money your business has been paid.
**Purposes.** A business owner would use a P\&L forecast to assess their [company's profitability](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/will-business-make-money-29850.html). You'll use your P\&L statement to see if your business is a worthwhile venture. You'll use a cash flow statement to track the money going in and out of your business. Your cash flow statement has a more immediate purpose than the P\&L forecast. Your cash flow statement will show you if your business has enough in the bank to pay for upcoming expenses. | ||||||||||||||||||
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