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URLhttps://www.newsweek.com/do-aliens-exist-predictions-markets-after-trump-remarks-11555671
Last Crawled2026-04-08 21:33:11 (7 days ago)
First Indexed2026-02-20 17:40:30 (1 month ago)
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Meta TitleDo aliens exist? What predictions markets show after Trump remarks - Newsweek
Meta DescriptionPrediction markets are wagering on whether the United States will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life by 2027.
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Prediction markets on whether the United States will confirm the existence of  aliens saw a surge of activity after President  Donald Trump  said he was directing Defense Secretary  Pete Hegseth  to begin identifying and releasing government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. Why It Matters Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with “serious people” who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was “not a believer,” even while conceding that “anything is possible.” Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as “very interesting” without offering details. A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is that  intelligent life exists on other planets . What Betting Markets Show Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than $4.87 million has been bet on the question. Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about $5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent. Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge.  Betting  odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive. Image placeholder US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026. | SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images What Did Obama Say About Aliens? Earlier this week , during a quick‑fire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President Barack Obama replied "They’re real" when asked about  aliens , but immediately clarified he hadn’t seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept at  Area 51 , a classified facility in Nevada. In  a follow-up post on social media , Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since it’s gotten attention let me clarify. "Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there’s life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we’ve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!" How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments? Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens. "He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "He’s not supposed to be doing that. I don’t know if they’re real or not…I can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.” In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" Image placeholder In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek , ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you. When you become a Newsweek Member , you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations.  Help keep the center courageous. Join today. Image placeholder
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What Predictions Markets Show After Trump Remarks *** Published Feb 20, 2026 at 12:36 PM EST updated Feb 20, 2026 at 12:37 PM EST ## Video ![Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens](https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-525363707-copy.jpg?width=320&height=180&quality=60?width=320&height=180&quality=60) 3 Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens *** ### Related Videos - ![Trump’s Iran Move Sparks ‘TACO Tuesday’ Memes](https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CMS-Photos.00_00_00_27.Still244.jpg?width=320&height=180&quality=60?width=120&height=68&quality=60) Trump’s Iran Move Sparks ‘TACO Tuesday’ Memes - ![White House Tells Newsweek Trump Still Considering Leaving NATO](https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CMS-Photos.00_00_02_18.Still243.jpg?width=320&height=180&quality=60?width=120&height=68&quality=60) White House Tells Newsweek Trump Still Considering Leaving NATO - ![Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens](https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-525363707-copy.jpg?width=320&height=180&quality=60?width=120&height=68&quality=60) Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens By Mandy Taheri Politics and Culture Reporter 3 Share [Newsweek is a Trust Project member](https://www.newsweek.com/editorial-guidelines) Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. *** Prediction markets on whether the United States will confirm the existence of [aliens]() saw a surge of activity after President [Donald Trump]() said he was directing Defense Secretary [Pete Hegseth]() to begin identifying and releasing government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. ## Why It Matters Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with “serious people” who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was “not a believer,” even while conceding that “anything is possible.” Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as “very interesting” without offering details. A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is that [intelligent life exists on other planets](https://www.newsweek.com/alien-warning-growing-ufo-belief-political-tsunami-1948675). ## What Betting Markets Show Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Read More #### News [NASA Chief Says Odds Are ‘Pretty High’ Aliens Exist](https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-chief-says-odds-are-pretty-high-aliens-exist-11785714) [Mystery Over 8 Missing or Dead Experts Linked to UFO Research](https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-over-8-missing-or-dead-experts-linked-to-ufo-research-11792852) [Lawmakers Back Curbing Donald Trump’s War Powers: Full List](https://www.newsweek.com/lawmakers-back-curbing-donald-trump-war-powers-full-list-11799714) [More Related Stories](https://www.newsweek.com/news) Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than \$4.87 million has been bet on the question. Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about \$5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent. Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. [Betting](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/betting) odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive. US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026. \| SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images ## What Did Obama Say About Aliens? [Earlier this week](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obamas-new-alien-comments-met-with-online-skepticism-11529241), during a quick‑fire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President [Barack Obama](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/barack-obama) replied "They’re real" when asked about [aliens](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/aliens), but immediately clarified he hadn’t seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept at [Area 51](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/area-51), a classified facility in Nevada. In [a follow-up post on social media](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-plays-down-comments-about-aliens-being-real-11527882), Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since it’s gotten attention let me clarify. "Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there’s life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we’ve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!" ## How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments? Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens. "He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "He’s not supposed to be doing that. I don’t know if they’re real or not…I can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.” In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" > In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At *Newsweek*, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you. > > When you [become a Newsweek Member](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe?utm_campaign=inlineCTAv2), you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. [Help keep the center courageous. Join today.](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe) Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story. [Learn more about Martyn.](https://www.newsweek.com/newsweek-martyn-newsroom-assistant) [Request Reprint & Licensing](https://www.newsweek.com/contact) Submit Correction [View Editorial & AI Guidelines](https://www.newsweek.com/editorial-guidelines) *** Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. ## Recommended For You [World](https://www.newsweek.com/world) [Trump Says Iran Downing US Jet Won’t Affect Negotiations](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-war-live-irgc-says-us-fighter-jets-downed-11779665) 2 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Pam Bondi Breaks Silence After Sudden Firing](https://www.newsweek.com/pam-bondi-fired-attorney-general-trump-live-updates-11776641) 2 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [NASA Chief Says Odds Are ‘Pretty High’ Aliens Exist](https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-chief-says-odds-are-pretty-high-aliens-exist-11785714) 5 min read [Politics](https://www.newsweek.com/politics) [Trump Cabinet Urged to Invoke 25th Amendment Against President](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-cabinet-urged-invoke-25th-amendment-president-11785106) 6 min read [U.S.](https://www.newsweek.com/us) [Lawmakers Demand 25th Amendment Be Invoked Against Trump: Full List](https://www.newsweek.com/invoke-25th-amendment-donald-trump-officials-list-11794791) 6 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Trump Threatens Major Strikes if Iran Rejects Hormuz Deal: Updates](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-war-trump-israel-live-updates-11787012) 2 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Trump Issues Warning to Countries Helping Iran](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-warning-to-countries-helping-iran-11798904) 1 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Mystery Over 8 Missing or Dead Experts Linked to UFO Research](https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-over-8-missing-or-dead-experts-linked-to-ufo-research-11792852) 4 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Marjorie Taylor Greene Demands 25th Amendment Be Invoked Against Trump](https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-demands-25th-amendment-be-invoked-against-trump-11793483) 2 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [List of Conservatives Urging 25th Amendment Be Invoked Against Trump](https://www.newsweek.com/list-of-conservatives-urging-25th-amendment-be-invoked-against-trump-11794470) 6 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Trump’s Chances of Being Removed by 25th Amendment Climb](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-chances-of-being-removed-by-25th-amendment-climb-11785658) 3 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Trump Issues New Warning to Iran: ‘A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight’](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-iran-warning-whole-civilization-die-11792792) 4 min read [World](https://www.newsweek.com/world) [Map Shows Countries Closing Airspace to US Military](https://www.newsweek.com/map-countries-closing-airspace-us-military-11775472) 3 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [New ‘Bigfoot’ Sighting After Wave of Activity](https://www.newsweek.com/bigfoot-sighting-ohio-surge-activity-11779775) 6 min read [News](https://www.newsweek.com/news) [Congressman Describes Secret UFO Videos: ‘Defies Logic’](https://www.newsweek.com/congressman-describes-secret-ufo-videos-defies-logic-11753290) 4 min read ## Related Podcasts ## Top Stories [For Members](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/for-members) [World](https://www.newsweek.com/world) [An Inside Look at Cuba’s Fight for Survival](https://www.newsweek.com/an-inside-look-at-cubas-fight-for-survival-11796400) 11 min read [Politics](https://www.newsweek.com/politics) [White House Addresses NATO Withdrawal, Says Allies ‘Turned Their Backs’](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-expected-raise-us-withdrawal-nato-rutte-meeting-11800218) 5 min read [World](https://www.newsweek.com/world) [Donald Trump’s Iran Ceasefire Dealt Major Blow](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-iran-ceasefire-dealt-major-blow-11801147) 4 min read [Politics](https://www.newsweek.com/politics) [Pam Bondi Faces New Warnings from Lawmakers Over Epstein ‘Cover-Up’](https://www.newsweek.com/pam-bondi-new-warnings-lawmakers-epstein-files-11801210) 3 min read [For Members](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/for-members) [Analysis](https://www.newsweek.com/analysis) [MAGA Isn’t Dying. 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They issue "press releases" to pump up interest among gambling addicts so that they can place more bets and thus increase the profits of the gambling organizers. reply 2 0 share report 0 0 older replies show older replies 2. #### Comment by glibwort. gl glibwort February 20, 2026 Obama said that he thinks that aliens exist (perhaps jokingly given the context). Trump immediately accused Obama of releasing classified information. Within a few days, Trump then said that he doesn't know if aliens exist or not. How could Trump know if Obama revealed classified information if Trump doesn't know the actual facts that might, or might not, be classified? Yet another logical absurdity from America's blurting accuser in chief. Will he next suggest that Obama started the Civil War? reply 1 reply 1 0 share report \-1 \-1 older replies show older replies - #### Hidden reply. ![Your avatar](https://cdn.viafoura.net/assets/defaultavatar.913f94a2fa72a280b0374131f1c9b175.png) content deactivated 1 reply - #### Reply by glibwort. gl glibwort February 21, 2026 Reply to Bofa Deez I strongly suggest that anyone interested in the topic of intelligent life in the Universe read a fascinating book by Carl Sagan and Iosef Shklovski titled "Intelligent Life in the Universe". It included a back and forth conversation between the two astronomers, and it teaches the reader enough physics and astronomy to understand how scientists have learned about the Universe even though we can only touch a tiny portion of it. reply 0 0 share report ## Active Conversations The following is a list of the most commented articles in the last 7 days. - [A trending article titled "U.S.–Iran truce strains amid Hormuz uncertainty and Lebanon strikes: LIVE" with 214 comments.U.S.–Iran truce strains amid Hormuz uncertainty and Lebanon strikes: LIVE 214](https://www.newsweek.com/iran-war-latest-live-updates-trump-declares-big-day-world-peace-iran-10-point-ceasefire-plan-oil-prices-11797257?__vfz=medium%3Dconversations_top_pages) - [A trending article titled "White House addresses NATO withdrawal, says allies "turned their backs"" with 28 comments.White House addresses NATO withdrawal, says allies "turned their backs" 28](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-expected-raise-us-withdrawal-nato-rutte-meeting-11800218?__vfz=medium%3Dconversations_top_pages) Powered by [Trending](https://www.newsweek.com/) US Politics [Donald Trump Impeachment and Removal Odds Hit Record High](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-and-removal-odds-hit-new-record-high-11795216) 5 min read Family [Mom Wakes Up From Nap, Something Feels off—Then Sees What 3-Year-Old Ate](https://www.newsweek.com/mom-wakes-up-from-nap-something-feels-off-then-sees-what-3-year-old-ate-11786967) 3 min read Gold [France Pulls All Gold Out of US Federal Reserve](https://www.newsweek.com/france-pulls-all-gold-out-of-us-federal-reserve-11792591) 3 min read Veterans [Supreme Court Could Make Major Change for VA Benefits](https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-could-make-major-change-for-va-benefits-11795570) 4 min read Donald Trump [Lawmakers Demand 25th Amendment Be Invoked Against Trump: Full List](https://www.newsweek.com/invoke-25th-amendment-donald-trump-officials-list-11794791) 6 min read [Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/opinion) [Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/opinion) [Zelensky Ties Ukraine To Broader Effort Against Iran’s Axis \| Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-ties-ukraine-to-broader-effort-against-irans-axis-opinion-11787472) 4 min read [Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/opinion) [K-Pop Prediction Hunters \| Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/k-pop-prediction-hunters-opinion-11767862) 7 min read [Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/opinion) [Second Chances Cannot Be Reserved for the Privileged Few \| Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/second-chances-cannot-be-reserved-for-the-privileged-few-opinion-11773171) 5 min read [Opinion](https://www.newsweek.com/opinion) [What Exactly Is the Purpose of NATO in the Year 2026?](https://www.newsweek.com/what-exactly-is-the-purpose-of-nato-in-the-year-2026-11784411) 5 min read ### sections - 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Prediction markets on whether the United States will confirm the existence of [aliens]() saw a surge of activity after President [Donald Trump]() said he was directing Defense Secretary [Pete Hegseth]() to begin identifying and releasing government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. ## Why It Matters Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with “serious people” who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was “not a believer,” even while conceding that “anything is possible.” Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as “very interesting” without offering details. A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is that [intelligent life exists on other planets](https://www.newsweek.com/alien-warning-growing-ufo-belief-political-tsunami-1948675). ## What Betting Markets Show Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than \$4.87 million has been bet on the question. Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about \$5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent. Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. [Betting](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/betting) odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive. US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026. \| SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images ## What Did Obama Say About Aliens? [Earlier this week](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obamas-new-alien-comments-met-with-online-skepticism-11529241), during a quick‑fire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President [Barack Obama](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/barack-obama) replied "They’re real" when asked about [aliens](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/aliens), but immediately clarified he hadn’t seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept at [Area 51](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/area-51), a classified facility in Nevada. In [a follow-up post on social media](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-plays-down-comments-about-aliens-being-real-11527882), Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since it’s gotten attention let me clarify. "Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there’s life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we’ve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!" ## How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments? Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens. "He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "He’s not supposed to be doing that. I don’t know if they’re real or not…I can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.” In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" > In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At *Newsweek*, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you. > > When you [become a Newsweek Member](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe?utm_campaign=inlineCTAv2), you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. [Help keep the center courageous. Join today.](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe)
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