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| Meta Title | Do aliens exist? What predictions markets show after Trump remarks - Newsweek |
| Meta Description | Prediction markets are wagering on whether the United States will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life by 2027. |
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| Boilerpipe Text | Prediction markets
on whether the United States will confirm the existence ofÂ
aliens
saw a
surge of activity after PresidentÂ
Donald Trump
 said he was directing Defense SecretaryÂ
Pete Hegseth
 to begin identifying and releasing government files on
UFOs and extraterrestrial life.
Why It Matters
Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with âserious peopleâ who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was ânot a believer,â even while conceding that âanything is possible.â
Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as âvery interestingâ without offering details.
A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is thatÂ
intelligent life exists on other planets
.
What Betting Markets Show
Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than $4.87 million has been bet on the question.
Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about $5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent.
Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge.Â
Betting
 odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
Image placeholder
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026.
|
SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images
What Did Obama Say About Aliens?
Earlier this week
, during a quickâfire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President
Barack Obama
replied "Theyâre real" when asked aboutÂ
aliens
, but immediately clarified he hadnât seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept atÂ
Area 51
, a classified facility in Nevada.
InÂ
a follow-up post on social media
, Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since itâs gotten attention let me clarify.
"Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good thereâs life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances weâve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!"
How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments?
Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens.
"He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "Heâs not supposed to be doing that. I donât know if theyâre real or notâŚI can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.â
In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!"
Image placeholder
In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At
Newsweek
, ours is different: The Courageous Centerâit's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.
When you
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, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations.Â
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News Article
# Do Aliens Exist? What Predictions Markets Show After Trump Remarks
***
Published
Feb 20, 2026 at 12:36 PM EST
updated
Feb 20, 2026 at 12:37 PM EST
## Video

3
Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens
***
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Trump Directs Hegseth to Release Government Files on Aliens
By Mandy Taheri
Politics and Culture Reporter
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***
Prediction markets on whether the United States will confirm the existence of [aliens]() saw a surge of activity after President [Donald Trump]() said he was directing Defense Secretary [Pete Hegseth]() to begin identifying and releasing government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life.
## Why It Matters
Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with âserious peopleâ who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was ânot a believer,â even while conceding that âanything is possible.â
Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as âvery interestingâ without offering details.
A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is that [intelligent life exists on other planets](https://www.newsweek.com/alien-warning-growing-ufo-belief-political-tsunami-1948675).
## What Betting Markets Show
Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Read More
#### News
[NASA Chief Says Odds Are âPretty Highâ Aliens Exist](https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-chief-says-odds-are-pretty-high-aliens-exist-11785714)
[Mystery Over 8 Missing or Dead Experts Linked to UFO Research](https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-over-8-missing-or-dead-experts-linked-to-ufo-research-11792852)
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Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than \$4.87 million has been bet on the question.
Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about \$5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent.
Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. [Betting](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/betting) odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026. \| SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images
## What Did Obama Say About Aliens?
[Earlier this week](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obamas-new-alien-comments-met-with-online-skepticism-11529241), during a quickâfire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President [Barack Obama](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/barack-obama) replied "Theyâre real" when asked about [aliens](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/aliens), but immediately clarified he hadnât seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept at [Area 51](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/area-51), a classified facility in Nevada.
In [a follow-up post on social media](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-plays-down-comments-about-aliens-being-real-11527882), Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since itâs gotten attention let me clarify.
"Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good thereâs life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances weâve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!"
## How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments?
Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens.
"He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "Heâs not supposed to be doing that. I donât know if theyâre real or notâŚI can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.â
In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!"
> In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At *Newsweek*, ours is different: The Courageous Centerâit's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.
>
> When you [become a Newsweek Member](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe?utm_campaign=inlineCTAv2), you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. [Help keep the center courageous. Join today.](https://www.newsweek.com/subscribe)
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1. #### Comment by glibwort.
gl
glibwort
February 20, 2026
These so called prediction markets should not be credited with any special knowledge. They make money no matter how people bet. They issue "press releases" to pump up interest among gambling addicts so that they can place more bets and thus increase the profits of the gambling organizers.
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2. #### Comment by glibwort.
gl
glibwort
February 20, 2026
Obama said that he thinks that aliens exist (perhaps jokingly given the context). Trump immediately accused Obama of releasing classified information. Within a few days, Trump then said that he doesn't know if aliens exist or not. How could Trump know if Obama revealed classified information if Trump doesn't know the actual facts that might, or might not, be classified? Yet another logical absurdity from America's blurting accuser in chief. Will he next suggest that Obama started the Civil War?
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February 21, 2026
Reply to Bofa Deez
I strongly suggest that anyone interested in the topic of intelligent life in the Universe read a fascinating book by Carl Sagan and Iosef Shklovski titled "Intelligent Life in the Universe". It included a back and forth conversation between the two astronomers, and it teaches the reader enough physics and astronomy to understand how scientists have learned about the Universe even though we can only touch a tiny portion of it.
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**0**
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| Readable Markdown | Prediction markets on whether the United States will confirm the existence of [aliens]() saw a surge of activity after President [Donald Trump]() said he was directing Defense Secretary [Pete Hegseth]() to begin identifying and releasing government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life.
## Why It Matters
Trump has repeatedly addressed the subject of aliens and UFOs over the years. He has said he received briefings as president on reported UFO sightings by U.S. pilots, acknowledged meeting with âserious peopleâ who claimed to have seen unexplained objects, but consistently added that he was ânot a believer,â even while conceding that âanything is possible.â
Trump has also hinted at knowing more than he was willing to say publicly, including remarks about the 1947 Roswell incident that he described as âvery interestingâ without offering details.
A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that almost two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say their best guess is that [intelligent life exists on other planets](https://www.newsweek.com/alien-warning-growing-ufo-belief-political-tsunami-1948675).
## What Betting Markets Show
Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in bets on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Earlier Friday, Polymarket bettors put the odds at 25 percent before they fell to about 17 percent. More than \$4.87 million has been bet on the question.
Kalshi, which saw a similar question with about \$5.23 million in volume, also showed a late Thursday spike, with the odds rising to 29 percent. As of Friday midday, the odds were at 21 percent.
Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. [Betting](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/betting) odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 12, 2026. \| SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images
## What Did Obama Say About Aliens?
[Earlier this week](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obamas-new-alien-comments-met-with-online-skepticism-11529241), during a quickâfire exchange with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, former President [Barack Obama](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/barack-obama) replied "Theyâre real" when asked about [aliens](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/aliens), but immediately clarified he hadnât seen any and dismissed claims that any were kept at [Area 51](https://www.newsweek.com/topic/area-51), a classified facility in Nevada.
In [a follow-up post on social media](https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-plays-down-comments-about-aliens-being-real-11527882), Obama explained: "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since itâs gotten attention let me clarify.
"Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good thereâs life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances weâve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!"
## How Did Trump Respond to Obama's Comments?
Trump on Thursday said Obama made a "big mistake" and disclosed "classified information" when he spoke about aliens.
"He gave classified information," Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy. "Heâs not supposed to be doing that. I donât know if theyâre real or notâŚI can tell you he gave classified information. He made a big mistake.â
In a Thursday Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!"
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| Shard | 55 (laksa) |
| Root Hash | 10153935897910600055 |
| Unparsed URL | com,newsweek!www,/do-aliens-exist-predictions-markets-after-trump-remarks-11555671 s443 |