🕷️ Crawler Inspector

URL Lookup

Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 185 (from laksa094)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa185.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459","crawl_time":1776016488,"first_indexed_time":1762757175,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"org,nber!www,\/papers\/w34459 s443","src_root_hash":"16229434317321816585","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"The Economic Impact of Brexit | NBER","meta_descriptions":["Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Working Paper\n34459\nDOI\n10.3386\/w34459\nIssue Date\nNovember 2025\nThis paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to main content](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459#main-content)\n\n- [Subscribe](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/subscribe)\n- [Media](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/media)\n- [Open Calls](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/calls-papers-and-proposals)\n\n[Login](https:\/\/my.nber.org\/)\n\n[Login](https:\/\/my.nber.org\/)\n\n- Research\n  [EXPLORE Research](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research \"This is a link to the research page\")\n  \n  - Findings\n    - [Working Papers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers)\n    - [Books & Chapters](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/books-and-chapters)\n    - [Videos](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos)\n  - Periodicals\n    - [The Digest](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest)\n    - [The Reporter](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/reporter)\n    - [The Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/ba)\n    - [The Bulletin on Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bh)\n    - [The Bulletin on Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/be)\n    - [The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Archives](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/brd)\n    - [The Bulletin on Aging & Health Archives](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bah)\n  - Data & Business Cycles\n    - [Boston Research Data Center](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/boston-research-data-center)\n    - [Business Cycle Dating](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating)\n    - [Public Use Data Archive](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/data)\n  - [All Topics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/topics)\n    - [Taxation](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/taxation)\n    - [Unemployment and Immigration](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/themes\/immigration\/immigrationsummary.shtml?page=1&perPage=50)\n    - [Energy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/taxonomy\/term\/681)\n    - [Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/entrepreneurship)\n    - [Trade](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/taxonomy\/term\/481)\n- Programs & Projects\n  [EXPLORE Programs & Projects](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects)\n  \n  - [Programs](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups)\n    - [Economics of Aging](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/economics-aging)\n    - [Asset Pricing](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/asset-pricing)\n    - [Children and Families](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/children-and-families)\n    - [Corporate Finance](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/corporate-finance)\n    - [Development Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/development-economics)\n    - [Development of the American Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/development-american-economy)\n    - [Economic Fluctuations and Growth](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/economic-fluctuations-and-growth)\n    - [Economics of Education](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/economics-education)\n    - [Economics of Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/economics-health)\n    - [Environment and Energy Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/environment-and-energy-economics)\n    - [Industrial Organization](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/industrial-organization)\n    - [International Finance and Macroeconomics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/international-finance-and-macroeconomics)\n    - [International Trade and Investment](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/international-trade-and-investment)\n    - [Labor Studies](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/labor-studies)\n    - [Law and Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/law-and-economics)\n    - [Monetary Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/monetary-economics)\n    - [Political Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/political-economy)\n    - [Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/productivity-innovation-and-entrepreneurship)\n    - [Public Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/public-economics)\n  - [Working Groups](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups#Groups)\n    - [Behavioral Finance](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/behavioral-finance)\n    - [Chinese Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/chinese-economy)\n    - [Economics of Crime](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/economics-crime)\n    - [Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/entrepreneurship)\n    - [Gender in the Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/gender-economy)\n    - [Household Finance](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/household-finance)\n    - [Innovation Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/innovation-policy)\n    - [Insurance](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/insurance)\n    - [Market Design](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/market-design)\n    - [Organizational Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/organizational-economics)\n    - [Personnel Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/personnel-economics)\n    - [Race and Stratification in the Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/race-and-stratification-economy)\n    - [Urban Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/urban-economics)\n  - [All Projects & Centers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/projects-and-centers)\n    - [Center for Aging and Health Research](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/projects-and-centers\/center-aging-and-health-research)\n    - [Center on Economics of Alzheimer's Disease](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/projects-and-centers\/ADRD)\n    - [Conference on Research in Income and Wealth](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/criw)\n    - [Economics of Digitization](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digitization)\n    - [Economic Measurement Research Institute](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/emri)\n    - [Financial Frictions and Systemic Risk](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/projects-and-centers\/financial-frictions-and-systemic-risk)\n    - [Healthcare Decision-Making and Outcomes for People Living with Alzheimer's Disease](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/healthcaredecisions)\n    - [Macroeconomics Annual](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/macroannual)\n    - [Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/projects-and-centers\/measuring-clinical-and-economic-outcomes-associated-delivery-systems)\n    - [New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/ltam)\n    - [Pop-Up Journal: Estimating the Economic Return to R\\&D Investment](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/pop-up)\n    - [The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/roybal)\n    - [Science of Science Funding](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/science)\n    - [Training Program in Aging and Health Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/agingtraining)\n    - [Transportation Economics in the 21st Century](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/transportation21)\n- Conferences\n  [EXPLORE Conferences](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/conferences)\n  \n  - [Summer Institute](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/summer-institute)\n  - [Reimbursements](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/conferences\/reimbursements)\n- [Affiliated Scholars](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/affiliated-scholars)\n- NBER News\n  [EXPLORE NBER News](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-news)\n  \n  - [Research in the News](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-research-news)\n  - [Nobel Laureates](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-news\/nobel-laureates)\n  - [Featured Working Papers Archive](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-news\/featured-working-papers-archive)\n- Career Resources\n  [EXPLORE Career Resources](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources)\n  \n  - [RA Positions – at NBER](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources\/research-assistant-positions-nber)\n  - [RA Positions – not at the NBER](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources\/research-assistant-positions-not-nber)\n  - [Staff Positions at NBER](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources\/staff-positions-nber)\n  - [Calls for Fellowship Applications](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources\/calls-fellowship-applications)\n  - [Current Fellowship Recipients](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/career-resources\/postdoctoral-and-graduate-fellows-academic-year-2025-26)\n- About\n  [EXPLORE About](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber)\n  \n  - [Leadership & Governance](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/leadership-governance)\n  - [Support & Funding](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/support-funding)\n  - [History](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/history)\n  - [Standards of Conduct](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/standards-conduct)\n  - [Staff](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/nber-staff)\n\n- [Subscribe](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/subscribe)\n- [Media](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/media)\n- [Open Calls](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/calls-papers-and-proposals)\n\n- [Home](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/)\n- [Research](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research)\n- [Working Papers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers)\n- The Economic Impact of Brexit\n\n# The Economic Impact of Brexit\n[Nicholas Bloom](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/nick_bloom),   [Philip Bunn](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/philipp_bunn),   [Paul Mizen](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/paul_mizen),   [Pawel Smietanka](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/psmietanka)   & [Gregory Thwaites](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/gthwaites)\n\nShare\n\n[X](https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit&url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"X\")\n\n[LinkedIn](https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"LinkedIn\")\n\n[Facebook](https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"Facebook\")\n\n[Bluesky](https:\/\/bsky.app\/intent\/compose?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit+https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"Bluesky\")\n\n[Threads](https:\/\/www.threads.net\/intent\/post?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit&url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"Threads\")\n\n[Email](<mailto:?subject=The Economic Impact of Brexit&body=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459> \"Email\")\n\n[Link](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459 \"Link\")\n\nWorking Paper 34459\n\nDOI 10.3386\/w34459\n\nIssue Date\n\nNovember 2025\n\nThis paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.\n\nYou may have unlimited free access to working papers. Many colleges and universities have institutional subscriptions. If you are affiliated with a subscribing institution, please access this site through your on-campus IP address. This should permit unlimited downloads. Alternatively, you can [register and confirm your email address](https:\/\/my.nber.org\/authorize_email). This will enable you to download working papers when you are away from your institution’s network.\n\nIf you are affiliated with a subscribing institution, you may also request that this paper be sent to your institutional email address. Please enter your email address below and click “send.”\n\nIn addition, all visitors to the NBER website are eligible for 3 free downloads each year.  \nYou have used 0 of 3.\n\n[Download a PDF](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w34459\/w34459.pdf)\n\n- Acknowledgements and Disclosures\n  \n  The views do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank or their Committees. The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council for financial support under grant numbers ES\/P010385\/1, ES\/X013707\/1, ES\/V004387\/1. We are grateful for feedback from presentations at the Bank of England, the Banque de France, Banca D'Italia, Central Bank Business Surveys Conference, Chicago, Columbia, UC Davis, Duke, Edinburgh, ESCB Research Cluster Workshop, ESCoE, European Investment Bank, IMF, KCL, Michigan, MIT, Philadelphia Fed, QMUL, Sciences Po, Stanford, Wharton and Yale. Corresponding Author: philip.bunn@bankofengland.co.uk. This paper updates and significantly extends our earlier work on the impact of Brexit that was previously published in Bloom (2019). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.\n- Citation and Citation Data\n  \n  Copy Citation\n  \n  Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites, \"The Economic Impact of Brexit,\" NBER Working Paper 34459 (2025), https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w34459.\n  \n  Copy to Clipboard\n  \n  Download Citation\n\n## Non-Technical Summaries\n- [Measuring Brexit’s Economic Toll on the United Kingdom](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest\/202602\/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom)\n  \n  Author(s):  [Nicholas Bloom](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/nick_bloom)[Philip Bunn](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/philipp_bunn)[Paul Mizen](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/paul_mizen)[Pawel Smietanka](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/psmietanka)[Gregory Thwaites](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/gthwaites)\n  \n  Nearly a decade has passed since British voters narrowly chose to leave the European Union in June 2016. The referendum's outcome set in...\n\n## Related\n### Topics\n[Macroeconomics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/macroeconomics)\n\n### Programs\n[Economic Fluctuations and Growth](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/economic-fluctuations-and-growth)\n\n[International Finance and Macroeconomics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/international-finance-and-macroeconomics)\n\n[International Trade and Investment](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/international-trade-and-investment)\n\n[Monetary Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/monetary-economics)\n\n## Mentioned in the News\n[Labour must take drastic action to regain its standing - The Guardian](https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2026\/feb\/22\/labour-must-take-drastic-action-to-regain-its-standing)\n\nFebruary 22, 2026\n\nSource:  [The Guardian](https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2026\/feb\/22\/labour-must-take-drastic-action-to-regain-its-standing)\n\n[Read the research here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459). [Or a non-technical summary here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest\/202602\/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom).\n\n[Customs Union? Single Market? The UK and Europe Can Do Better - Bloomberg.com](https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2026-01-12\/uk-and-eu-can-negotiate-their-way-to-smarter-post-brexit-union)\n\nJanuary 12, 2026\n\nSource:  [Bloomberg](https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2026-01-12\/uk-and-eu-can-negotiate-their-way-to-smarter-post-brexit-union)\n\n[Read the research here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w34459). [Or a non-technical summary here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest\/202602\/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom).\n\n[View All](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-news\/nber-research-news?facet=paper%3AThe+Economic+Impact+of+Brexit&page=1&endDate=&perPage=50&q=&startDate= \"View all references to this paper\")\n\n## More from the NBER\nIn addition to [working papers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers \"Working Papers\"), the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the [NBER Reporter](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/reporter), the [NBER Digest](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest), the [Bulletin on Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bulletin-health), and the [Bulletin on Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bulletin-entrepreneurship%20) — as well as online [conference reports](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/conferences \"Conferences\"), [video lectures](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/lectures \"Lectures\"), and [interviews](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research-spotlights \"Research Spotlights\").\n\n![ 2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw,\" The Fiscal Future\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-07\/MF%20Lecture%202025%20updated.png?itok=ij7zY5fj)\n\n[2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw,\" The Fiscal Future\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-17th-annual-feldstein-lecture-n-gregory-mankiw-fiscal-future)\n\n- Feldstein Lecture\n\n- Presenter:  [N. Gregory Mankiw](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/gregory_mankiw)\n\nN. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein...\n\n![ 2025 Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty, \"Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-07\/Methods%20Lecture%20SI%202025_0.png?itok=hsgorA8D)\n\n[2025, Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty and Kosuke Imai, \"Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-methods-lecture-raj-chetty-and-kosuke-imai-uncovering-causal-mechanisms-mediation-analysis-and)\n\n- Methods Lectures\n\n- Presenters:  [Raj Chetty](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/raj_chetty)   & [Kosuke Imai](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/kosuke_imai)\n\nSlidesBackground materials on mediationImai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). “Experimental Designs...\n\n![2025 International Trade and Macroeconomics, \"Panel on The Future of the Global Economy\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-08\/SI%20International%20trade%20Panel%202025.png?itok=2DuJTJDm)\n\n[2025, International Trade and Macroeconomics, \"Panel on The Future of the Global Economy\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-international-trade-and-macroeconomics-panel-future-global-economy)\n\n- Panel Discussion\n\n- Presenters:  [Oleg Itskhoki](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/oleg_itskhoki),   [Paul R. Krugman](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/paul_krugman)   & [Linda Tesar](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/linda_tesar)\n\nSupported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant \\#G-2023-19633, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant \\#20251294...\n\nNational Bureau of Economic Research\n\n[Contact Us](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/contact-nber)  \n1050 Massachusetts Avenue  \nCambridge, MA 02138  \n[617-868-3900](tel:+16178683900)  \n[info@nber.org](mailto:info@nber.org)  \n[webaccessibility@nber.org](mailto:webaccessibility@nber.org)\n\n- [Homepage](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/)\n\n- [Accessibility Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/website-accessibility-policy)\n- [Diversity Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-diversity-policy-statement)\n- [Privacy Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/nber-website-privacy-policy)\n\nFollow\n\n© 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research. All Rights Reserved.","attrs_readable_markdown":"Working Paper 34459\n\nDOI 10.3386\/w34459\n\nIssue Date November 2025\n\nThis paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.","meta_canonical":null}

3. Robots.txt Check

Query:

Response:

4. Spam/Ban Check

Query:

Response:

5. Seen Status Check

ℹ️ Skipped - page is already crawled

📄

INDEXABLE

✅

CRAWLED

29 minutes ago

🤖

ROBOTS ALLOWED

Page Info Filters

Filter	Status	Condition	Details
HTTP status	PASS	`download_http_code = 200`	HTTP 200
Age cutoff	PASS	`download_stamp > now() - 6 MONTH`	0 months ago
History drop	PASS	`isNull(history_drop_reason)`	No drop reason
Spam/ban	PASS	`fh_dont_index != 1 AND ml_spam_score = 0`	ml_spam_score=0
Canonical	PASS	`meta_canonical IS NULL OR = '' OR = src_unparsed`	Not set

Page Details

Property	Value
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Last Crawled	2026-04-12 17:54:48 (29 minutes ago)
First Indexed	2025-11-10 06:46:15 (5 months ago)
HTTP Status Code	200
Meta Title	The Economic Impact of Brexit \| NBER
Meta Description	Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
Meta Canonical	null
Boilerpipe Text	Working Paper 34459 DOI 10.3386/w34459 Issue Date November 2025 This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.
Markdown	[Skip to main content](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459#main-content) - [Subscribe](https://www.nber.org/subscribe) - [Media](https://www.nber.org/media) - [Open Calls](https://www.nber.org/calls-papers-and-proposals) [Login](https://my.nber.org/) [Login](https://my.nber.org/) - Research [EXPLORE Research](https://www.nber.org/research "This is a link to the research page") - Findings - [Working Papers](https://www.nber.org/papers) - [Books & Chapters](https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters) - [Videos](https://www.nber.org/research/videos) - Periodicals - [The Digest](https://www.nber.org/digest) - [The Reporter](https://www.nber.org/reporter) - [The Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias](https://www.nber.org/ba) - [The Bulletin on Health](https://www.nber.org/bh) - [The Bulletin on Entrepreneurship](https://www.nber.org/be) - [The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Archives](https://www.nber.org/brd) - [The Bulletin on Aging & Health Archives](https://www.nber.org/bah) - Data & Business Cycles - [Boston Research Data Center](https://www.nber.org/research/boston-research-data-center) - [Business Cycle Dating](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating) - [Public Use Data Archive](https://www.nber.org/research/data) - [All Topics](https://www.nber.org/research/topics) - [Taxation](https://www.nber.org/topics/taxation) - [Unemployment and Immigration](https://www.nber.org/themes/immigration/immigrationsummary.shtml?page=1&perPage=50) - [Energy](https://www.nber.org/taxonomy/term/681) - [Entrepreneurship](https://www.nber.org/topics/entrepreneurship) - [Trade](https://www.nber.org/taxonomy/term/481) - Programs & Projects [EXPLORE Programs & Projects](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects) - [Programs](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups) - [Economics of Aging](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/economics-aging) - [Asset Pricing](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/asset-pricing) - [Children and Families](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/children-and-families) - [Corporate Finance](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/corporate-finance) - [Development Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/development-economics) - [Development of the American Economy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/development-american-economy) - [Economic Fluctuations and Growth](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/economic-fluctuations-and-growth) - [Economics of Education](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/economics-education) - [Economics of Health](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/economics-health) - [Environment and Energy Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/environment-and-energy-economics) - [Industrial Organization](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/industrial-organization) - [International Finance and Macroeconomics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/international-finance-and-macroeconomics) - [International Trade and Investment](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/international-trade-and-investment) - [Labor Studies](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/labor-studies) - [Law and Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/law-and-economics) - [Monetary Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/monetary-economics) - [Political Economy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/political-economy) - [Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/productivity-innovation-and-entrepreneurship) - [Public Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/public-economics) - [Working Groups](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups#Groups) - [Behavioral Finance](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/behavioral-finance) - [Chinese Economy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/chinese-economy) - [Economics of Crime](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/economics-crime) - [Entrepreneurship](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/entrepreneurship) - [Gender in the Economy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/gender-economy) - [Household Finance](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/household-finance) - [Innovation Policy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/innovation-policy) - [Insurance](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/insurance) - [Market Design](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/market-design) - [Organizational Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/organizational-economics) - [Personnel Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/personnel-economics) - [Race and Stratification in the Economy](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/race-and-stratification-economy) - [Urban Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups%23Groups/urban-economics) - [All Projects & Centers](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers) - [Center for Aging and Health Research](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers/center-aging-and-health-research) - [Center on Economics of Alzheimer's Disease](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers/ADRD) - [Conference on Research in Income and Wealth](https://www.nber.org/criw) - [Economics of Digitization](https://www.nber.org/digitization) - [Economic Measurement Research Institute](https://www.nber.org/emri) - [Financial Frictions and Systemic Risk](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers/financial-frictions-and-systemic-risk) - [Healthcare Decision-Making and Outcomes for People Living with Alzheimer's Disease](https://www.nber.org/healthcaredecisions) - [Macroeconomics Annual](https://www.nber.org/macroannual) - [Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers/measuring-clinical-and-economic-outcomes-associated-delivery-systems) - [New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management](https://www.nber.org/ltam) - [Pop-Up Journal: Estimating the Economic Return to R\&D Investment](https://www.nber.org/pop-up) - [The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health](https://www.nber.org/roybal) - [Science of Science Funding](https://www.nber.org/science) - [Training Program in Aging and Health Economics](https://www.nber.org/agingtraining) - [Transportation Economics in the 21st Century](https://www.nber.org/transportation21) - Conferences [EXPLORE Conferences](https://www.nber.org/conferences) - [Summer Institute](https://www.nber.org/summer-institute) - [Reimbursements](https://www.nber.org/conferences/reimbursements) - [Affiliated Scholars](https://www.nber.org/affiliated-scholars) - NBER News [EXPLORE NBER News](https://www.nber.org/nber-news) - [Research in the News](https://www.nber.org/nber-research-news) - [Nobel Laureates](https://www.nber.org/nber-news/nobel-laureates) - [Featured Working Papers Archive](https://www.nber.org/nber-news/featured-working-papers-archive) - Career Resources [EXPLORE Career Resources](https://www.nber.org/career-resources) - [RA Positions – at NBER](https://www.nber.org/career-resources/research-assistant-positions-nber) - [RA Positions – not at the NBER](https://www.nber.org/career-resources/research-assistant-positions-not-nber) - [Staff Positions at NBER](https://www.nber.org/career-resources/staff-positions-nber) - [Calls for Fellowship Applications](https://www.nber.org/career-resources/calls-fellowship-applications) - [Current Fellowship Recipients](https://www.nber.org/career-resources/postdoctoral-and-graduate-fellows-academic-year-2025-26) - About [EXPLORE About](https://www.nber.org/about-nber) - [Leadership & Governance](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/leadership-governance) - [Support & Funding](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/support-funding) - [History](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/history) - [Standards of Conduct](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/standards-conduct) - [Staff](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/nber-staff) - [Subscribe](https://www.nber.org/subscribe) - [Media](https://www.nber.org/media) - [Open Calls](https://www.nber.org/calls-papers-and-proposals) - [Home](https://www.nber.org/) - [Research](https://www.nber.org/research) - [Working Papers](https://www.nber.org/papers) - The Economic Impact of Brexit # The Economic Impact of Brexit [Nicholas Bloom](https://www.nber.org/people/nick_bloom), [Philip Bunn](https://www.nber.org/people/philipp_bunn), [Paul Mizen](https://www.nber.org/people/paul_mizen), [Pawel Smietanka](https://www.nber.org/people/psmietanka) & [Gregory Thwaites](https://www.nber.org/people/gthwaites) Share [X](https://twitter.com/intent/?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit&url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "X") [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "LinkedIn") [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "Facebook") [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/intent/compose?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit+https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "Bluesky") [Threads](https://www.threads.net/intent/post?text=The%20Economic%20Impact%20of%20Brexit&url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "Threads") [Email](<mailto:?subject=The Economic Impact of Brexit&body=https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459> "Email") [Link](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459 "Link") Working Paper 34459 DOI 10.3386/w34459 Issue Date November 2025 This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade. You may have unlimited free access to working papers. Many colleges and universities have institutional subscriptions. If you are affiliated with a subscribing institution, please access this site through your on-campus IP address. This should permit unlimited downloads. Alternatively, you can [register and confirm your email address](https://my.nber.org/authorize_email). This will enable you to download working papers when you are away from your institution’s network. If you are affiliated with a subscribing institution, you may also request that this paper be sent to your institutional email address. Please enter your email address below and click “send.” In addition, all visitors to the NBER website are eligible for 3 free downloads each year. You have used 0 of 3. [Download a PDF](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34459/w34459.pdf) - Acknowledgements and Disclosures The views do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank or their Committees. The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council for financial support under grant numbers ES/P010385/1, ES/X013707/1, ES/V004387/1. We are grateful for feedback from presentations at the Bank of England, the Banque de France, Banca D'Italia, Central Bank Business Surveys Conference, Chicago, Columbia, UC Davis, Duke, Edinburgh, ESCB Research Cluster Workshop, ESCoE, European Investment Bank, IMF, KCL, Michigan, MIT, Philadelphia Fed, QMUL, Sciences Po, Stanford, Wharton and Yale. Corresponding Author: philip.bunn@bankofengland.co.uk. This paper updates and significantly extends our earlier work on the impact of Brexit that was previously published in Bloom (2019). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. - Citation and Citation Data Copy Citation Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites, "The Economic Impact of Brexit," NBER Working Paper 34459 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34459. Copy to Clipboard Download Citation ## Non-Technical Summaries - [Measuring Brexit’s Economic Toll on the United Kingdom](https://www.nber.org/digest/202602/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom) Author(s): [Nicholas Bloom](https://www.nber.org/people/nick_bloom)[Philip Bunn](https://www.nber.org/people/philipp_bunn)[Paul Mizen](https://www.nber.org/people/paul_mizen)[Pawel Smietanka](https://www.nber.org/people/psmietanka)[Gregory Thwaites](https://www.nber.org/people/gthwaites) Nearly a decade has passed since British voters narrowly chose to leave the European Union in June 2016. The referendum's outcome set in... ## Related ### Topics [Macroeconomics](https://www.nber.org/topics/macroeconomics) ### Programs [Economic Fluctuations and Growth](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/economic-fluctuations-and-growth) [International Finance and Macroeconomics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/international-finance-and-macroeconomics) [International Trade and Investment](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/international-trade-and-investment) [Monetary Economics](https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/programs-working-groups/monetary-economics) ## Mentioned in the News [Labour must take drastic action to regain its standing - The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/22/labour-must-take-drastic-action-to-regain-its-standing) February 22, 2026 Source: [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/22/labour-must-take-drastic-action-to-regain-its-standing) [Read the research here](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459). [Or a non-technical summary here](https://www.nber.org/digest/202602/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom). [Customs Union? Single Market? The UK and Europe Can Do Better - Bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-12/uk-and-eu-can-negotiate-their-way-to-smarter-post-brexit-union) January 12, 2026 Source: [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-12/uk-and-eu-can-negotiate-their-way-to-smarter-post-brexit-union) [Read the research here](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459). [Or a non-technical summary here](https://www.nber.org/digest/202602/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom). [View All](https://www.nber.org/nber-news/nber-research-news?facet=paper%3AThe+Economic+Impact+of+Brexit&page=1&endDate=&perPage=50&q=&startDate= "View all references to this paper") ## More from the NBER In addition to [working papers](https://www.nber.org/papers "Working Papers"), the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the [NBER Reporter](https://www.nber.org/reporter), the [NBER Digest](https://www.nber.org/digest), the [Bulletin on Health](https://www.nber.org/bulletin-health), and the [Bulletin on Entrepreneurship](https://www.nber.org/bulletin-entrepreneurship%20) — as well as online [conference reports](https://www.nber.org/conferences "Conferences"), [video lectures](https://www.nber.org/research/lectures "Lectures"), and [interviews](https://www.nber.org/research-spotlights "Research Spotlights"). ![ 2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw," The Fiscal Future"](https://www.nber.org/sites/default/files/styles/promo/public/2025-07/MF%20Lecture%202025%20updated.png?itok=ij7zY5fj) [2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw," The Fiscal Future"](https://www.nber.org/research/videos/2025-17th-annual-feldstein-lecture-n-gregory-mankiw-fiscal-future) - Feldstein Lecture - Presenter: [N. Gregory Mankiw](https://www.nber.org/people/gregory_mankiw) N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein... ![ 2025 Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty, "Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices"](https://www.nber.org/sites/default/files/styles/promo/public/2025-07/Methods%20Lecture%20SI%202025_0.png?itok=hsgorA8D) [2025, Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty and Kosuke Imai, "Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices"](https://www.nber.org/research/videos/2025-methods-lecture-raj-chetty-and-kosuke-imai-uncovering-causal-mechanisms-mediation-analysis-and) - Methods Lectures - Presenters: [Raj Chetty](https://www.nber.org/people/raj_chetty) & [Kosuke Imai](https://www.nber.org/people/kosuke_imai) SlidesBackground materials on mediationImai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). “Experimental Designs... ![2025 International Trade and Macroeconomics, "Panel on The Future of the Global Economy"](https://www.nber.org/sites/default/files/styles/promo/public/2025-08/SI%20International%20trade%20Panel%202025.png?itok=2DuJTJDm) [2025, International Trade and Macroeconomics, "Panel on The Future of the Global Economy"](https://www.nber.org/research/videos/2025-international-trade-and-macroeconomics-panel-future-global-economy) - Panel Discussion - Presenters: [Oleg Itskhoki](https://www.nber.org/people/oleg_itskhoki), [Paul R. Krugman](https://www.nber.org/people/paul_krugman) & [Linda Tesar](https://www.nber.org/people/linda_tesar) Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant \#G-2023-19633, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant \#20251294... National Bureau of Economic Research [Contact Us](https://www.nber.org/contact-nber) 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 [617-868-3900](tel:+16178683900) [info@nber.org](mailto:info@nber.org) [webaccessibility@nber.org](mailto:webaccessibility@nber.org) - [Homepage](https://www.nber.org/) - [Accessibility Policy](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/website-accessibility-policy) - [Diversity Policy](https://www.nber.org/nber-diversity-policy-statement) - [Privacy Policy](https://www.nber.org/about-nber/nber-website-privacy-policy) Follow © 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research. All Rights Reserved.
Readable Markdown	Working Paper 34459 DOI 10.3386/w34459 Issue Date November 2025 This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.
Shard	185 (laksa)
Root Hash	16229434317321816585
Unparsed URL	org,nber!www,/papers/w34459 s443