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1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 185 (from laksa096)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa185.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082","crawl_time":1775562311,"first_indexed_time":1706509322,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"org,nber!www,\/papers\/w32082 s443","src_root_hash":"16229434317321816585","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States | NBER","meta_descriptions":["Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Working Paper\n32082\nDOI\n10.3386\/w32082\nIssue Date\nJanuary 2024\nWe study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to main content](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082#main-content)\n\n- [Subscribe](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/subscribe)\n- [Media](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/media)\n- [Open Calls](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/calls-papers-and-proposals)\n\n[Login](https:\/\/my.nber.org\/)\n\n[Login](https:\/\/my.nber.org\/)\n\n- Research\n  [EXPLORE Research](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research \"This is a link to the research page\")\n  \n  - Findings\n    - [Working Papers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers)\n    - [Books & Chapters](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/books-and-chapters)\n    - [Videos](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos)\n  - Periodicals\n    - [The Digest](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest)\n    - [The Reporter](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/reporter)\n    - [The Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/ba)\n    - [The Bulletin on Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bh)\n    - 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The Employment…\n\n# Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States\n[David Autor](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/david_autor),   [Anne Beck](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/anne_beck),   [David Dorn](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/david_dorn)   & [Gordon H. Hanson](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/gordon_hanson)\n\nShare\n\n[X](https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/?text=Help%20for%20the%20Heartland%3F%20The%20Employment%20and%20Electoral%20Effects%20of%20the%20Trump%20Tariffs%20in%20the%20United%20States&url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"X\")\n\n[LinkedIn](https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"LinkedIn\")\n\n[Facebook](https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"Facebook\")\n\n[Bluesky](https:\/\/bsky.app\/intent\/compose?text=Help%20for%20the%20Heartland%3F%20The%20Employment%20and%20Electoral%20Effects%20of%20the%20Trump%20Tariffs%20in%20the%20United%20States+https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"Bluesky\")\n\n[Threads](https:\/\/www.threads.net\/intent\/post?text=Help%20for%20the%20Heartland%3F%20The%20Employment%20and%20Electoral%20Effects%20of%20the%20Trump%20Tariffs%20in%20the%20United%20States&url=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"Threads\")\n\n[Email](<mailto:?subject=Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States&body=https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082> \"Email\")\n\n[Link](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082 \"Link\")\n\nWorking Paper 32082\n\nDOI 10.3386\/w32082\n\nIssue Date\n\nJanuary 2024\n\nWe study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.\n\n[Download a PDF](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w32082\/w32082.pdf)\n\n[Information on access](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/subscribe)\n\n- Acknowledgements and Disclosures\n  \n  We thank seminar and conference participants at Banque de France, UC Berkeley, CERGE-EI, Harvard, Hohenheim, INSEAD, Maastricht, Mannheim, Northwestern, PSE, Shanghai Jiao Tong, Singapore Management University, Stanford, Tuebingen, USC, Vienna, Warwick and Zurich for valuable comments, and Lory Iunius, Clemens Oberhuemer and Liaoliang Zhang for excellent research assistance. Autor acknowledges research support from the Hewlett Foundation, Google, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Beck and Dorn acknowledge research support from the University of Zurich’s research priority program 'Equality of Opportunity'. Hanson acknowledges research support from the Hewlett Foundation and the Generation Foundation. The views expressed here are those of the authors only, and not necessarily those of the World Bank. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.\n- Citation and Citation Data\n  \n  Copy Citation\n  \n  David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson, \"Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States,\" NBER Working Paper 32082 (2024), https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w32082.\n  \n  Copy to Clipboard\n  \n  Download Citation\n\n## Related\n### Topics\n[Microeconomics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/microeconomics)\n\n[Welfare and Collective Choice](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/taxonomy\/term\/436)\n\n[International Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/international-economics)\n\n[Trade](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/taxonomy\/term\/481)\n\n[Labor Economics](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/topics\/labor-economics)\n\n[Labor Supply and Demand](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/taxonomy\/term\/571)\n\n### Programs\n[International Trade and Investment](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/international-trade-and-investment)\n\n[Labor Studies](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups\/labor-studies)\n\n### Working Groups\n[Chinese Economy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/programs-projects\/programs-working-groups%23Groups\/chinese-economy)\n\n## Mentioned in the News\n[Can America tough it through the tariffs? - The Tacoma Ledger](https:\/\/thetacomaledger.com\/2025\/05\/16\/can-america-tough-it-through-the-tariffs\/)\n\nMay 17, 2025\n\nSource:  [thetacomaledger.com](https:\/\/thetacomaledger.com\/2025\/05\/16\/can-america-tough-it-through-the-tariffs\/)\n\n[Read the research here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082).\n\n[Americans still dream about factory jobs. Can they be brought back? - WCAI](https:\/\/www.capeandislands.org\/2025-05-09\/americans-still-dream-about-factory-jobs-can-they-be-brought-back)\n\nMay 10, 2025\n\nSource:  [capeandislands.org](https:\/\/www.capeandislands.org\/2025-05-09\/americans-still-dream-about-factory-jobs-can-they-be-brought-back)\n\n[Read the research here](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32082).\n\n[View All](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-news\/nber-research-news?facet=paper%3AHelp+for+the+Heartland%3F+The+Employment+and+Electoral+Effects+of+the+Trump+Tariffs+in+the+United+States&page=1&endDate=&perPage=50&q=&startDate= \"View all references to this paper\")\n\n## More from the NBER\nIn addition to [working papers](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers \"Working Papers\"), the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the [NBER Reporter](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/reporter), the [NBER Digest](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest), the [Bulletin on Health](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bulletin-health), and the [Bulletin on Entrepreneurship](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/bulletin-entrepreneurship%20) — as well as online [conference reports](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/conferences \"Conferences\"), [video lectures](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/lectures \"Lectures\"), and [interviews](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research-spotlights \"Research Spotlights\").\n\n![ 2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw,\" The Fiscal Future\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-07\/MF%20Lecture%202025%20updated.png?itok=ij7zY5fj)\n\n[2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw,\" The Fiscal Future\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-17th-annual-feldstein-lecture-n-gregory-mankiw-fiscal-future)\n\n- Feldstein Lecture\n\n- Presenter:  [N. Gregory Mankiw](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/gregory_mankiw)\n\nN. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein...\n\n![ 2025 Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty, \"Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-07\/Methods%20Lecture%20SI%202025_0.png?itok=hsgorA8D)\n\n[2025, Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty and Kosuke Imai, \"Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-methods-lecture-raj-chetty-and-kosuke-imai-uncovering-causal-mechanisms-mediation-analysis-and)\n\n- Methods Lectures\n\n- Presenters:  [Raj Chetty](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/raj_chetty)   & [Kosuke Imai](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/kosuke_imai)\n\nSlidesBackground materials on mediationImai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). “Experimental Designs...\n\n![2025 International Trade and Macroeconomics, \"Panel on The Future of the Global Economy\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/promo\/public\/2025-08\/SI%20International%20trade%20Panel%202025.png?itok=2DuJTJDm)\n\n[2025, International Trade and Macroeconomics, \"Panel on The Future of the Global Economy\"](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/videos\/2025-international-trade-and-macroeconomics-panel-future-global-economy)\n\n- Panel Discussion\n\n- Presenters:  [Oleg Itskhoki](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/oleg_itskhoki),   [Paul R. Krugman](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/paul_krugman)   & [Linda Tesar](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/people\/linda_tesar)\n\nSupported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant \\#G-2023-19633, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant \\#20251294...\n\nNational Bureau of Economic Research\n\n[Contact Us](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/contact-nber)  \n1050 Massachusetts Avenue  \nCambridge, MA 02138  \n[617-868-3900](tel:+16178683900)  \n[info@nber.org](mailto:info@nber.org)  \n[webaccessibility@nber.org](mailto:webaccessibility@nber.org)\n\n- [Homepage](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/)\n\n- [Accessibility Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/website-accessibility-policy)\n- [Diversity Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/nber-diversity-policy-statement)\n- [Privacy Policy](https:\/\/www.nber.org\/about-nber\/nber-website-privacy-policy)\n\nFollow\n\n© 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research. All Rights Reserved.","attrs_readable_markdown":"Working Paper 32082\n\nDOI 10.3386\/w32082\n\nIssue Date January 2024\n\nWe study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.","meta_canonical":null}

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INDEXABLE

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CRAWLED

9 hours ago

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Page Info Filters

Filter	Status	Condition	Details
HTTP status	PASS	`download_http_code = 200`	HTTP 200
Age cutoff	PASS	`download_stamp > now() - 6 MONTH`	0 months ago
History drop	PASS	`isNull(history_drop_reason)`	No drop reason
Spam/ban	PASS	`fh_dont_index != 1 AND ml_spam_score = 0`	ml_spam_score=0
Canonical	PASS	`meta_canonical IS NULL OR = '' OR = src_unparsed`	Not set

Page Details

Property	Value
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082
Last Crawled	2026-04-07 11:45:11 (9 hours ago)
First Indexed	2024-01-29 06:22:02 (2 years ago)
HTTP Status Code	200
Meta Title	Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States \| NBER
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Boilerpipe Text	Working Paper 32082 DOI 10.3386/w32082 Issue Date January 2024 We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.
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The Employment… # Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States [David Autor](https://www.nber.org/people/david_autor), [Anne Beck](https://www.nber.org/people/anne_beck), [David Dorn](https://www.nber.org/people/david_dorn) & [Gordon H. 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The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States&body=https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082> "Email") [Link](https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082 "Link") Working Paper 32082 DOI 10.3386/w32082 Issue Date January 2024 We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support. [Download a PDF](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32082/w32082.pdf) [Information on access](https://www.nber.org/subscribe) - Acknowledgements and Disclosures We thank seminar and conference participants at Banque de France, UC Berkeley, CERGE-EI, Harvard, Hohenheim, INSEAD, Maastricht, Mannheim, Northwestern, PSE, Shanghai Jiao Tong, Singapore Management University, Stanford, Tuebingen, USC, Vienna, Warwick and Zurich for valuable comments, and Lory Iunius, Clemens Oberhuemer and Liaoliang Zhang for excellent research assistance. Autor acknowledges research support from the Hewlett Foundation, Google, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Beck and Dorn acknowledge research support from the University of Zurich’s research priority program 'Equality of Opportunity'. Hanson acknowledges research support from the Hewlett Foundation and the Generation Foundation. The views expressed here are those of the authors only, and not necessarily those of the World Bank. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. - Citation and Citation Data Copy Citation David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson, "Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States," NBER Working Paper 32082 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32082. 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Readable Markdown	Working Paper 32082 DOI 10.3386/w32082 Issue Date January 2024 We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.
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