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[](https://www.natesilver.net/) # [](https://www.natesilver.net/) Subscribe Sign in [Models & Forecasts](https://www.natesilver.net/s/models-and-forecasts/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=menu) # How popular is Donald Trump? ### Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman. [](https://substack.com/@natesilver) [](https://substack.com/@emckowndawson) [Nate Silver](https://substack.com/@natesilver) and [Eli McKown-Dawson](https://substack.com/@emckowndawson) Apr 14, 2026 ∙ Paid 1,420 267 353 Share [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JKG0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd83bdd9a-f550-4f92-9ac7-c370662c7f86_1400x636.png) #### **🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating** ##### **Updated April 14, 2026** Last night, [Iran and the US agreed to a two-week ceasefire](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/08/world/iran-war-trump-news). It happened shortly before Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline, after he claimed that [“a whole civilization will die tonight.”](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116363336033995961) [Stock prices surged in the wake of the deal](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-04-08-2026), while oil prices saw their largest single-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s mostly down to Iran promising “safe passage” for ships through the Strait of Hormuz as part of the deal. But still, shipping [has yet to pick up steam](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/strait-hormuz-ships-traffic-iran-ceasefire.html) and it could take [months for oil and gas production to return to normal](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-energy.html). **Since the Iran War began, Trump’s net approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average has dropped from -13.4 to -16.3**. It hit an all-time second-term low of -17.5 a few days ago. Ending the war might prevent further damage to Trump’s popularity, but it’s unlikely to erase the decline he’s already seen. Check out Nate’s latest article for a more detailed take on the [ceasefire and Trump’s approach to brinkmanship](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nuclear-brinkmanship-usually-works). **\-EMD*****, 4/8/26*** ##### **See also: [Generic congressional ballot dashboard](https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls) and [Iran War support dashboard](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval).** *** This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin presidential approval ratings. We’ll regularly update the charts below as new polls about Donald Trump’s approval rating come in.[1](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-1-156658365) This page is designed to be [viewed on the web](https://tinyurl.com/3fzxm9wc) rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. [Click here for more information on how the average works](http://www.natesilver.net/how-silver-bulletin-calculates-our). The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls heavily — you can **[find our latest pollster ratings here](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin)**. ### The topline: So, just how popular is Trump? Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version.[2](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-2-156658365) This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote. ### The polls: What do the surveys say? Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.[3](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-3-156658365) Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people. Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of [statistical variation](https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of) but because pollsters have [long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity](https://www.natesilver.net/p/polling-is-becoming-more-of-an-art). By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how [the “house effects” adjustment](https://www.natesilver.net/p/silver-bulletin-polling-average-methodology) that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model. You can also **[click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS-FKWVTTFtJT6u56e0bqdfoMcXvDO1DUChsJ3jQAMB2lZk2SMqVfmg7dGjclTYkYWz-Pm5lfcLPjp4/pub?output=csv)** — including some additional details not shown in the chart below. ### The issues: What do Americans think of Trump’s policies? Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living. ### The deep dive We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers: - How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman? - How many voters *strongly* approve or disapprove of Trump? - What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters? You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below. ## This post is for paid subscribers [Subscribe](https://www.natesilver.net/subscribe?simple=true&next=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.natesilver.net%2Fp%2Ftrump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin&utm_source=paywall&utm_medium=web&utm_content=156658365) [Already a paid subscriber? **Sign in**](https://substack.com/sign-in?redirect=%2Fp%2Ftrump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin&for_pub=natesilver&change_user=false) Previous © 2026 Nate Silver · [Privacy](https://substack.com/privacy) ∙ [Terms](https://substack.com/tos) ∙ [Collection notice](https://substack.com/ccpa#personal-data-collected) [Start your Substack](https://substack.com/signup?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_content=footer) [Get the app](https://substack.com/app/app-store-redirect?utm_campaign=app-marketing&utm_content=web-footer-button) [Substack](https://substack.com/) is the home for great culture This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. 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[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JKG0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd83bdd9a-f550-4f92-9ac7-c370662c7f86_1400x636.png) This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin presidential approval ratings. We’ll regularly update the charts below as new polls about Donald Trump’s approval rating come in.[1](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-1-156658365) This page is designed to be [viewed on the web](https://tinyurl.com/3fzxm9wc) rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. [Click here for more information on how the average works](http://www.natesilver.net/how-silver-bulletin-calculates-our). The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls heavily — you can **[find our latest pollster ratings here](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin)**. Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version.[2](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-2-156658365) This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote. Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.[3](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin#footnote-3-156658365) Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people. Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of [statistical variation](https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of) but because pollsters have [long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity](https://www.natesilver.net/p/polling-is-becoming-more-of-an-art). By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how [the “house effects” adjustment](https://www.natesilver.net/p/silver-bulletin-polling-average-methodology) that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model. You can also **[click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS-FKWVTTFtJT6u56e0bqdfoMcXvDO1DUChsJ3jQAMB2lZk2SMqVfmg7dGjclTYkYWz-Pm5lfcLPjp4/pub?output=csv)** — including some additional details not shown in the chart below. Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living. We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers: - How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman? - How many voters *strongly* approve or disapprove of Trump? - What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters? You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below.