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curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa180.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

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{"found_url":"https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/","crawl_time":1776658871,"first_indexed_time":1551444704,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,macroption!www,\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/ s443","src_root_hash":"17196473014788047980","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Difference between Implied, Realized and Historical Volatility - Macroption","meta_descriptions":[],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"This page explains the differences between types of volatility -\nimplied\n, realized,\nhistorical\n. There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility.\nTable of Contents\nHow They Differ\nImplied vs. Realized Volatility\nHistorical vs. Future Volatility\nFuture vs. Forecast Volatility\nSummary\nHow They Differ\nVolatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as\nstandard deviation\nof returns, measures how much a security moves\nover a certain period\n. The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things:\nWhat that period is (\nhistorical volatility\nis for some period in the past, while\nfuture\nor\nforecast volatility\nis forward looking).\nHow we find or calculate the volatility (\nimplied volatility\nis calculated from option prices, while\nrealized volatility\nis calculated from underlying price changes).\nImplied vs. Realized Volatility\nVolatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa.\nThe subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility.\nPrice is what you pay. Value is what you get.\nTo make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else).\nImplied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price.\nOption pricing models such as the\nBlack-Scholes model\ncan calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the\nother factors\n, such as the option's\nstrike price\n,\ntime to expiration\n, or\nunderlying price\n). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we\ncalculate implied volatility\n- from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not.\nRealized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market.\nIt can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are\nvarious approaches\n,\nthe most common way\nis to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called\nstatistical volatility\n.\nOption prices don't affect realized volatility in any way.\nIn fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility\nskew\nor\nsmile\n).\nHistorical vs. Future Volatility\nWhile implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called\nhistorical volatility\n) or the future (then it is called\nfuture realized volatility\n).\nAnother important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, \"20-day historical volatility\" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes).\nFuture vs. Forecast Volatility\nWhen talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called\nforecast volatility\n- and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the\nfuture realized volatility\n.\nOur ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be\nhedged\n). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades.\nSummary\nWe have explained the differences between individual types of volatility:\nImplied volatility\nis calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date.\nRealized volatility\nis calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained\nhere\n). If this\ncertain period\nis in the past, we call it\nhistorical volatility\n. If it is in the future, we call it\nfuture realized volatility\n.","attrs_markdown":"[Macroption](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/)\n\n[≡]()\n\n[Excel Calculators](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/calculators\/) [Trading Tools](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tools\/) [Tutorials](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/) [About](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/about\/) [Contact](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/contact\/) [Access Your Downloads](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/download\/)\n\n[Access Your Downloads](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/download\/)\n\n[Excel Calculators](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/calculators\/) [Trading Tools](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tools\/) [Tutorials](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/) [About](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/about\/) [Contact](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/contact\/)\n\n[Options Basics](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/options-basics\/) [Option Pricing](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-pricing\/) [Greeks](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-greeks\/) [Option Strategies](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-strategies\/) [Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/volatility\/) [VIX & VSTOXX](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/vix\/)\n\n[All](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/) » [Tutorials and Reference](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/) » [Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/volatility\/)\n\n- [Historical Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility\/)\n- [Implied Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility\/)\n- [Difference between Implied, Realized and Historical Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/)\n\nMore in [Tutorials and Reference](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/)\n\n- [Options 101: Beginner Tutorial](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/options-101\/)\n- [Option Payoff Excel Tutorial](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-payoff-excel\/)\n- [Option Pricing](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-pricing\/)\n- [Option Greeks](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-greeks\/)\n- [Option Strategies](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-strategies\/)\n- [Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/volatility\/)\n- [Technical Analysis](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/technical-analysis\/)\n- [Performance and Risk Metrics](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/investment-performance-risk-metrics\/)\n- [Statistics for Finance](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/statistics\/)\n- [Resources (Brokers, Data, Software)](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/resources\/)\n- [Other Tutorials and Notes](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/other\/)\n- [Glossary](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/glossary\/)\n\n# Difference between Implied, Realized and Historical Volatility\nThis page explains the differences between types of volatility - [implied](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility\/ \"Implied Volatility\"), realized, [historical](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility\/ \"Historical Volatility\"). There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility.\n\n#### Table of Contents\n- [How They Differ](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#how-they-differ)\n- [Implied vs. Realized Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#implied-vs-realized-volatility)\n- [Historical vs. Future Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#historical-vs-future-volatility)\n- [Future vs. Forecast Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#future-vs-forecast-volatility)\n- [Summary](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#summary)\n## How They Differ\nVolatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as [standard deviation](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/calculate-variance-standard-deviation-4-steps\/ \"Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation in 4 Easy Steps\") of returns, measures how much a security moves *over a certain period*. The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things:\n\n1. What that period is (**historical volatility** is for some period in the past, while **future** or **forecast volatility** is forward looking).\n2. How we find or calculate the volatility (**implied volatility** is calculated from option prices, while **realized volatility** is calculated from underlying price changes).\n## Implied vs. Realized Volatility\nVolatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa.\n\nThe subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility.\n\n**Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.**\n\nTo make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else).\n\n**Implied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price.**\n\nOption pricing models such as the [Black-Scholes model](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes\/ \"Black-Scholes Model\") can calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the [other factors](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-inputs\/ \"Black-Scholes Inputs (Parameters)\"), such as the option's [strike price](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-strike-price\/ \"Black-Scholes Strike Price Input\"), [time to expiration](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-time-to-expiration\/ \"Black-Scholes Time to Expiration Input\"), or [underlying price](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-underlying-price\/ \"Black-Scholes Underlying Price Input\")). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we [calculate implied volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility-excel\/ \"Calculating Implied Volatility in Excel\") - from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not.\n\n**Realized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market.** It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are [various approaches](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculator\/ \"Historical Volatility Excel Calculator - 3 Different Calculation Methods\"), [the most common way](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculation\/ \"Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation Explained Step-by-Step\") is to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called **statistical volatility**.\n\nOption prices don't affect realized volatility in any way.\n\nIn fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility *skew* or *smile*).\n\n## Historical vs. Future Volatility\nWhile implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called **historical volatility**) or the future (then it is called **future realized volatility**).\n\nAnother important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, \"20-day historical volatility\" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes).\n\n## Future vs. Forecast Volatility\nWhen talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called **forecast volatility** - and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the **future realized volatility**.\n\nOur ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be [hedged](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/delta-hedging\/ \"Delta Hedging: Calculations, Adjustments, Long vs. Short Options\")). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades.\n\n## Summary\nWe have explained the differences between individual types of volatility:\n\n**Implied volatility** is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date.\n\n**Realized volatility** is calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained [here](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculation\/ \"Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation\")). If this *certain period* is in the past, we call it **historical volatility**. If it is in the future, we call it **future realized volatility**.\n\n[All](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/) » [Tutorials and Reference](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/) » [Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/volatility\/)\n\n- [Historical Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility\/)\n- [Implied Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility\/)\n- [Difference between Implied, Realized and Historical Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/)\n\nMore in [Tutorials and Reference](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/)\n\n- [Options 101: Beginner Tutorial](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/options-101\/)\n- [Option Payoff Excel Tutorial](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-payoff-excel\/)\n- [Option Pricing](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-pricing\/)\n- [Option Greeks](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-greeks\/)\n- [Option Strategies](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/option-strategies\/)\n- [Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/volatility\/)\n- [Technical Analysis](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/technical-analysis\/)\n- [Performance and Risk Metrics](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/investment-performance-risk-metrics\/)\n- [Statistics for Finance](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/statistics\/)\n- [Resources (Brokers, Data, Software)](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/resources\/)\n- [Other Tutorials and Notes](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/other\/)\n- [Glossary](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/glossary\/)\n\n[Top of this page](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#top) [Home](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/) [Excel Calculators](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/calculators\/) [Trading Tools](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tools\/) [Tutorials](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/tutorials\/) [About](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/about\/) [Contact](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/contact\/)\n\nBy remaining on this website or using its content, you confirm that you have read and agree with the [Terms of Use Agreement](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/terms\/).\n\nWe are not liable for any damages resulting from using this website. Any information may be inaccurate or incomplete. See full  [Limitation of Liability](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/terms\/#limitation-of-liability).\n\nContent may include affiliate links, which means we may earn commission if you buy on the linked website. See full [Affiliate and Referral Disclosure](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/terms\/#affiliate-referral-relationships).\n\nWe use cookies and similar technology to improve user experience and analyze traffic. See full [Cookie Policy](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/terms\/#cookie-policy).\n\nSee also [Privacy Policy](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/terms\/#privacy-policy) on how we collect and handle user data.\n\n© 2026 Macroption","attrs_readable_markdown":"This page explains the differences between types of volatility - [implied](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility\/ \"Implied Volatility\"), realized, [historical](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility\/ \"Historical Volatility\"). There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility.\n\n#### Table of Contents\n- [How They Differ](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#how-they-differ)\n- [Implied vs. Realized Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#implied-vs-realized-volatility)\n- [Historical vs. Future Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#historical-vs-future-volatility)\n- [Future vs. Forecast Volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#future-vs-forecast-volatility)\n- [Summary](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility\/#summary)\n## How They Differ\nVolatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as [standard deviation](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/calculate-variance-standard-deviation-4-steps\/ \"Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation in 4 Easy Steps\") of returns, measures how much a security moves *over a certain period*. The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things:\n\n1. What that period is (**historical volatility** is for some period in the past, while **future** or **forecast volatility** is forward looking).\n2. How we find or calculate the volatility (**implied volatility** is calculated from option prices, while **realized volatility** is calculated from underlying price changes).\n## Implied vs. Realized Volatility\nVolatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa.\n\nThe subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility.\n\n**Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.**\n\nTo make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else).\n\n**Implied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price.**\n\nOption pricing models such as the [Black-Scholes model](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes\/ \"Black-Scholes Model\") can calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the [other factors](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-inputs\/ \"Black-Scholes Inputs (Parameters)\"), such as the option's [strike price](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-strike-price\/ \"Black-Scholes Strike Price Input\"), [time to expiration](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-time-to-expiration\/ \"Black-Scholes Time to Expiration Input\"), or [underlying price](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/black-scholes-underlying-price\/ \"Black-Scholes Underlying Price Input\")). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we [calculate implied volatility](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/implied-volatility-excel\/ \"Calculating Implied Volatility in Excel\") - from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not.\n\n**Realized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market.** It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are [various approaches](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculator\/ \"Historical Volatility Excel Calculator - 3 Different Calculation Methods\"), [the most common way](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculation\/ \"Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation Explained Step-by-Step\") is to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called **statistical volatility**.\n\nOption prices don't affect realized volatility in any way.\n\nIn fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility *skew* or *smile*).\n\n## Historical vs. Future Volatility\nWhile implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called **historical volatility**) or the future (then it is called **future realized volatility**).\n\nAnother important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, \"20-day historical volatility\" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes).\n\n## Future vs. Forecast Volatility\nWhen talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called **forecast volatility** - and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the **future realized volatility**.\n\nOur ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be [hedged](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/delta-hedging\/ \"Delta Hedging: Calculations, Adjustments, Long vs. Short Options\")). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades.\n\n## Summary\nWe have explained the differences between individual types of volatility:\n\n**Implied volatility** is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date.\n\n**Realized volatility** is calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained [here](https:\/\/www.macroption.com\/historical-volatility-calculation\/ \"Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation\")). If this *certain period* is in the past, we call it **historical volatility**. If it is in the future, we call it **future realized volatility**.","meta_canonical":null}

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Boilerpipe Text	This page explains the differences between types of volatility - implied , realized, historical . There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility. Table of Contents How They Differ Implied vs. Realized Volatility Historical vs. Future Volatility Future vs. Forecast Volatility Summary How They Differ Volatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as standard deviation of returns, measures how much a security moves over a certain period . The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things: What that period is ( historical volatility is for some period in the past, while future or forecast volatility is forward looking). How we find or calculate the volatility ( implied volatility is calculated from option prices, while realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes). Implied vs. Realized Volatility Volatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa. The subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. To make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else). Implied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price. Option pricing models such as the Black-Scholes model can calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the other factors , such as the option's strike price , time to expiration , or underlying price ). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we calculate implied volatility - from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not. Realized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market. It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are various approaches , the most common way is to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called statistical volatility . Option prices don't affect realized volatility in any way. In fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility skew or smile ). Historical vs. Future Volatility While implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called historical volatility ) or the future (then it is called future realized volatility ). Another important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, "20-day historical volatility" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes). Future vs. Forecast Volatility When talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called forecast volatility - and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the future realized volatility . Our ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be hedged ). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades. Summary We have explained the differences between individual types of volatility: Implied volatility is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date. Realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained here ). If this certain period is in the past, we call it historical volatility . If it is in the future, we call it future realized volatility .
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There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility. #### Table of Contents - [How They Differ](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#how-they-differ) - [Implied vs. Realized Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#implied-vs-realized-volatility) - [Historical vs. Future Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#historical-vs-future-volatility) - [Future vs. Forecast Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#future-vs-forecast-volatility) - [Summary](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#summary) ## How They Differ Volatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as [standard deviation](https://www.macroption.com/calculate-variance-standard-deviation-4-steps/ "Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation in 4 Easy Steps") of returns, measures how much a security moves over a certain period. The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things: 1. What that period is (historical volatility is for some period in the past, while future or forecast volatility is forward looking). 2. How we find or calculate the volatility (implied volatility is calculated from option prices, while realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes). ## Implied vs. Realized Volatility Volatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa. The subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. To make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else). Implied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price. Option pricing models such as the [Black-Scholes model](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes/ "Black-Scholes Model") can calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the [other factors](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-inputs/ "Black-Scholes Inputs (Parameters)"), such as the option's [strike price](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-strike-price/ "Black-Scholes Strike Price Input"), [time to expiration](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-time-to-expiration/ "Black-Scholes Time to Expiration Input"), or [underlying price](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-underlying-price/ "Black-Scholes Underlying Price Input")). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we [calculate implied volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-volatility-excel/ "Calculating Implied Volatility in Excel") - from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not. Realized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market. It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are [various approaches](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculator/ "Historical Volatility Excel Calculator - 3 Different Calculation Methods"), [the most common way](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculation/ "Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation Explained Step-by-Step") is to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called statistical volatility. Option prices don't affect realized volatility in any way. In fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility skew or smile). ## Historical vs. Future Volatility While implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called historical volatility) or the future (then it is called future realized volatility). Another important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, "20-day historical volatility" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes). ## Future vs. Forecast Volatility When talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called forecast volatility - and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the future realized volatility. Our ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be [hedged](https://www.macroption.com/delta-hedging/ "Delta Hedging: Calculations, Adjustments, Long vs. Short Options")). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades. ## Summary We have explained the differences between individual types of volatility: Implied volatility is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date. Realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained [here](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculation/ "Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation")). If this certain period is in the past, we call it historical volatility. If it is in the future, we call it future realized volatility. [All](https://www.macroption.com/) » [Tutorials and Reference](https://www.macroption.com/tutorials/) » [Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/volatility/) - [Historical Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility/) - [Implied Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-volatility/) - [Difference between Implied, Realized and Historical Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/) More in [Tutorials and Reference](https://www.macroption.com/tutorials/) - [Options 101: Beginner Tutorial](https://www.macroption.com/options-101/) - [Option Payoff Excel Tutorial](https://www.macroption.com/option-payoff-excel/) - [Option Pricing](https://www.macroption.com/option-pricing/) - [Option Greeks](https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks/) - [Option Strategies](https://www.macroption.com/option-strategies/) - [Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/volatility/) - [Technical Analysis](https://www.macroption.com/technical-analysis/) - [Performance and Risk Metrics](https://www.macroption.com/investment-performance-risk-metrics/) - [Statistics for Finance](https://www.macroption.com/statistics/) - [Resources (Brokers, Data, Software)](https://www.macroption.com/resources/) - [Other Tutorials and Notes](https://www.macroption.com/other/) - [Glossary](https://www.macroption.com/glossary/) [Top of this page](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#top) [Home](https://www.macroption.com/) [Excel Calculators](https://www.macroption.com/calculators/) [Trading Tools](https://www.macroption.com/tools/) [Tutorials](https://www.macroption.com/tutorials/) [About](https://www.macroption.com/about/) [Contact](https://www.macroption.com/contact/) By remaining on this website or using its content, you confirm that you have read and agree with the [Terms of Use Agreement](https://www.macroption.com/terms/). 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Readable Markdown	This page explains the differences between types of volatility - [implied](https://www.macroption.com/implied-volatility/ "Implied Volatility"), realized, [historical](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility/ "Historical Volatility"). There are other types and terms which we will also explain, including forecast volatility, future volatility, and statistical volatility. #### Table of Contents - [How They Differ](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#how-they-differ) - [Implied vs. Realized Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#implied-vs-realized-volatility) - [Historical vs. Future Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#historical-vs-future-volatility) - [Future vs. Forecast Volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#future-vs-forecast-volatility) - [Summary](https://www.macroption.com/implied-vs-realized-vs-historical-volatility/#summary) ## How They Differ Volatility, typically expressed as a percentage and interpreted as [standard deviation](https://www.macroption.com/calculate-variance-standard-deviation-4-steps/ "Calculating Variance and Standard Deviation in 4 Easy Steps") of returns, measures how much a security moves over a certain period. The individual types of volatility differ mainly in two things: 1. What that period is (historical volatility is for some period in the past, while future or forecast volatility is forward looking). 2. How we find or calculate the volatility (implied volatility is calculated from option prices, while realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes). ## Implied vs. Realized Volatility Volatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option values?). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa. The subtle difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between implied and realized volatility. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. To make a profit you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when trading options like it is when trading stocks (or anything else). Implied volatility is what you pay - it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an option's price. Option pricing models such as the [Black-Scholes model](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes/ "Black-Scholes Model") can calculate exact option price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the [other factors](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-inputs/ "Black-Scholes Inputs (Parameters)"), such as the option's [strike price](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-strike-price/ "Black-Scholes Strike Price Input"), [time to expiration](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-time-to-expiration/ "Black-Scholes Time to Expiration Input"), or [underlying price](https://www.macroption.com/black-scholes-underlying-price/ "Black-Scholes Underlying Price Input")). They can also be reversed to find the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we [calculate implied volatility](https://www.macroption.com/implied-volatility-excel/ "Calculating Implied Volatility in Excel") - from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by the options market. This expectation may be correct, or it may not. Realized volatility is what you get - it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market. It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g. daily stock price changes). Although there are [various approaches](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculator/ "Historical Volatility Excel Calculator - 3 Different Calculation Methods"), [the most common way](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculation/ "Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation Explained Step-by-Step") is to calculate realized volatility as standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called statistical volatility. Option prices don't affect realized volatility in any way. In fact, you can calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary, there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility skew or smile). ## Historical vs. Future Volatility While implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called historical volatility) or the future (then it is called future realized volatility). Another important characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is measured. For example, "20-day historical volatility" measures realized volatility over last 20 days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes). ## Future vs. Forecast Volatility When talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion (before it happens) or prediction of what the future volatility will be - this is often called forecast volatility - and the reality, which we will only know after it happens - the future realized volatility. Our ability to forecast volatility (not an easy task!) is essential for successful option trading - we want our forecast volatility (what we think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can be [hedged](https://www.macroption.com/delta-hedging/ "Delta Hedging: Calculations, Adjustments, Long vs. Short Options")). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades. ## Summary We have explained the differences between individual types of volatility: Implied volatility is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are on the same underlying and with the same expiration date. Realized volatility is calculated from underlying price changes over a certain period (exact calculation explained [here](https://www.macroption.com/historical-volatility-calculation/ "Historical (Realized) Volatility Calculation")). If this certain period is in the past, we call it historical volatility. If it is in the future, we call it future realized volatility.
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