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| Meta Title | President Trump's fake news about climate change |
| Meta Description | President Trump is a major source of fake news on climate change. He revealed the very deep level of his ignorance in an interview with Piers Morgan. |
| Meta Canonical | null |
| Boilerpipe Text | President Trump announces that the US plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement on Thursday 1 June 2017. (Credit: The White House)
President Trump again demonstrated this weekend that he is a major source of fake news about climate change.
During
an interview broadcast on 28 January on ITVï»ż
in the UK, Piers Morgan asked Mr Trump for his views both on the Paris Agreement and on whether he believes in climate change.
The Presidentâs answers revealed the very deep level of his ignorance. Towards the end of the interview (from about 36 minutes), the following exchange occurred:
Piers Morgan: âQuick fire. Climate change. For you is it about the science or is it about the money? The Paris Accord.â
President Trump: âI think itâs about everything, and Iâm a believer in clean air and clean water. The Paris Accord for us would have been a disaster.â
Piers Morgan: âAre you completely out of that?â
President Trump: âIâm completely out of it.â
Piers Morgan: âNo way back?â
President Trump: âEr, there could be a way back. First of all it was a terrible deal for the United States. If they made a good deal, like if they made a good deal with TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership], you know with having to do with trade, thereâs always a chance weâd get back. But it was a terrible deal for the United States. It was unfair to the United States.â
This exposed President Trumpâs longstanding lack of understanding about the Paris Agreement. The United States Government
ratified the Agreement on 3 September 2016ï»ż
. The Agreement
came into force on 4 November 2016ï»ż
.
Article 28 of the Agreementï»ż
states that any country that wishes to withdraw could not start the procedure until three years after it came into force, and that the process would take a year. Hence the earliest that the Trump Administration could complete withdrawal would be 4 November 2020, the day after the next election for the President of the United States.
President Trumpâs claim that the Paris Agreement is âa terrible deal forâ and âunfair toâ the United States is also completely false. The Agreement does not commit the United States to any specific actions to tackle climate change. Instead, the Obama Administration submitted a voluntary
ânationally determined contributionâï»ż
to the Agreement. Like other countries, the United States can review this contribution over the next two years, and the Trump Administration could submit in 2020 a new statement that the President considers to be âfairerâ for the United States, without having to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
However, it was the next exchange during the interview that showed President Trump does not have a grasp of the science of climate change:
Piers Morgan: âDo you believe in climate change? Do you think it exists?â
President Trump: âEr, there is a cooling, thereâs a heating. Look it used to not be climate change, it used to be global warming, right?â
Piers Morgan: âRight.â
President Trump: âThat wasnât working too well because it was getting too cold all over the place. Ah, the ice caps were going to melt, they were going to be gone by now, but now theyâre setting records, ok, theyâre at a record level. There were so many things happening, Piers.â
In this case, Mr Trump appeared to show that he relies on the propaganda of climate change deniers instead of the advice of scientists. His suggestion that the term âclimate changeâ has only been introduced recently because the Earth is âgetting too cold all over the placeâ is hopelessly wrong. âClimate changeâ and its variants have been used for more than half a century. For instance, the magazine âWeatherâ published an article called
âCan Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?âï»ż
by Guy Callendar in October 1949. The opening sentence is: âAn interpretation of climatic change in terms of the variable carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere was first proposed some sixty years ago by the famous Swedish physicist, Sevante [sic] Arrhenius, who made some of the classic experiments on the absorption of heat radiation by gasesâ.
In the United States, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences published a report on
âUnderstanding Climatic Changeâï»ż
in 1975. The term âglobal warmingâ started to receive increased use during the 1980s, particularly after âThe New York Timesâ reported on its front page the Congressional testimony of James Hansen, under the headline
âGlobal Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senateâï»ż
. But
another report published by the National Academyï»ż
in 2005 noted: âThe phrase âclimate changeâ is growing in preferred use to âglobal warmingâ because it helps convey that there are changes in addition to rising temperaturesâ. And as
Jason Samenow pointed out in âThe Washington Postâï»ż
, it was pollster Frank Luntz who advised Republican activists in
a memo in 2002ï»ż
that âItâs time for us to start talking about âclimate changeâ instead of global warming and âconservationâ instead of preservationâ, pointing out: âWhile global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challengeâ.
Of course, the main reason President Trump was wrong is because the Earth has been warming, not cooling, over almost all of its surface during the past century, as this
map produced by NASAï»ż
clearly illustrates.
President Trump also implied that the polar ice caps are not melting and are at ârecord levelsâ. In fact, the opposite is true. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado, the Arctic sea ice extent on 28 January was at its
lowest ever level for this time of yearï»ż
since satellite measurements began in 1979. Record lows were set in 2016 and 2017 for the annual winter maximum of Arctic sea ice extent.
Similarly, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet has been declining markedly at a rate of about 270 billion tonnes each year, according to the latest
âArctic Report Cardâï»ż
by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And while the situation in Antarctica is more complicated,
the most recent studyï»ż
concluded that the ice sheet is losing mass overall despite an increase in snowfall on the eastern side of the continent.
However, this was not the first time since his election that President Trump has demonstrated that he does not understand the science, economics and politics of climate change.
In November 2016, Mr Trump was
interviewed at length by staff at âThe New York Timesâï»ż
about his views on a wide variety of topics. When asked about climate change, President-Elect Trump said:
âYou know the hottest day ever was in 1890-something, 98. You know, you can make lots of cases for different views. I have a totally open mind. My uncle was for 35 years a professor at M.I.T. He was a great engineer, scientist. He was a great guy. And he was ⊠a long time ago, he had feelings â this was a long time ago â he had feelings on this subject. Itâs a very complex subject. Iâm not sure anybody is ever going to really know. I know we have, they say they have science on one side but then they also have those horrible emails that were sent between the scientists. Where was that, in Geneva or wherever five years ago? Terrible. Where they got caught, you know, so you see that and you say, whatâs this all about. I absolutely have an open mind. I will tell you this: Clean air is vitally important. Clean water, crystal clean water is vitally important. Safety is vitally important.â
Mr Trumpâs answer showed how poorly briefed he was about climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the hottest daytime temperature
was 56.7°C, recorded in Death Valley, California, in 1913ï»ż
. But this information is irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is happening. It is possible that Mr Trump was trying to remember 1998 which, at the time of the interview, was the warmest year according to one controversial satellite record of the temperature of the lower atmosphere. However, the World Meteorological Organisation had already
indicated that 2016 was likely to surpass 2015 as the hottest yearï»ż
based on surface temperature records, and was part of a clear warming trend.
Mr Trumpâs reference to âhorrible emailsâ was an apparent attempt to recall propaganda spread by climate change deniers about the hacking of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. In fact, nine independent investigations were conducted into the content of the stolen emails and documents by
the Independent Climate Change Email Reviewï»ż
,
the International Panel set up by the University of East Anglia to examine the research of the Climatic Research Unitï»ż
,
the House of Commons Select Committee on Science and Technologyï»ż
,
Pennsylvania State Universityï»ż
,
the United States Environmental Protection Agencyï»ż
,
the Inspector General of the United States Department of Commerceï»ż
and
the United States National Science Foundationï»ż
. None of these inquiries concluded that the hacked emails showed serious misconduct by any climate scientists.
And President Trumpâs speech in June last year in the Rose Garden of the White House, during which he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, contained
many false statements
both about the Agreement itself and of the potential economic consequences of remaining part of it.
It is time that Mr Trump educated himself about climate change. He should steer clear of sources of laughable propaganda about the issue, such as Fox News, Breitbart and âThe Wall Street Journalâ. Perhaps if the President does visit the United Kingdom this year, he could pop into Clarence House for a chat and pick up a signed copy of the excellent
Ladybird book on climate changeï»ż
.
Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Grantham Research Institute. |
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# President Trumpâs fake news about climate change
[Commentary](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news-category/20-commentary/) on 30 January, 2018

President Trump announces that the US plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement on Thursday 1 June 2017. (Credit: The White House)
President Trump again demonstrated this weekend that he is a major source of fake news about climate change.
During [an interview broadcast on 28 January on ITVï»ż](https://www.itv.com/hub/president-trump-the-piers-morgan-interview/2a5582a0001) in the UK, Piers Morgan asked Mr Trump for his views both on the Paris Agreement and on whether he believes in climate change.
The Presidentâs answers revealed the very deep level of his ignorance. Towards the end of the interview (from about 36 minutes), the following exchange occurred:
Piers Morgan: âQuick fire. Climate change. For you is it about the science or is it about the money? The Paris Accord.â
President Trump: âI think itâs about everything, and Iâm a believer in clean air and clean water. The Paris Accord for us would have been a disaster.â
Piers Morgan: âAre you completely out of that?â
President Trump: âIâm completely out of it.â
Piers Morgan: âNo way back?â
President Trump: âEr, there could be a way back. First of all it was a terrible deal for the United States. If they made a good deal, like if they made a good deal with TPP \[Trans-Pacific Partnership\], you know with having to do with trade, thereâs always a chance weâd get back. But it was a terrible deal for the United States. It was unfair to the United States.â
This exposed President Trumpâs longstanding lack of understanding about the Paris Agreement. The United States Government [ratified the Agreement on 3 September 2016ï»ż](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/09/03/president-obama-united-states-formally-enters-paris-agreement). The Agreement [came into force on 4 November 2016ï»ż](https://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php). [Article 28 of the Agreementï»ż](https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf) states that any country that wishes to withdraw could not start the procedure until three years after it came into force, and that the process would take a year. Hence the earliest that the Trump Administration could complete withdrawal would be 4 November 2020, the day after the next election for the President of the United States.
President Trumpâs claim that the Paris Agreement is âa terrible deal forâ and âunfair toâ the United States is also completely false. The Agreement does not commit the United States to any specific actions to tackle climate change. Instead, the Obama Administration submitted a voluntary [ânationally determined contributionâï»ż](https://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf) to the Agreement. Like other countries, the United States can review this contribution over the next two years, and the Trump Administration could submit in 2020 a new statement that the President considers to be âfairerâ for the United States, without having to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
However, it was the next exchange during the interview that showed President Trump does not have a grasp of the science of climate change:
Piers Morgan: âDo you believe in climate change? Do you think it exists?â
President Trump: âEr, there is a cooling, thereâs a heating. Look it used to not be climate change, it used to be global warming, right?â
Piers Morgan: âRight.â
President Trump: âThat wasnât working too well because it was getting too cold all over the place. Ah, the ice caps were going to melt, they were going to be gone by now, but now theyâre setting records, ok, theyâre at a record level. There were so many things happening, Piers.â
In this case, Mr Trump appeared to show that he relies on the propaganda of climate change deniers instead of the advice of scientists. His suggestion that the term âclimate changeâ has only been introduced recently because the Earth is âgetting too cold all over the placeâ is hopelessly wrong. âClimate changeâ and its variants have been used for more than half a century. For instance, the magazine âWeatherâ published an article called [âCan Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?âï»ż](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1949.tb00952.x/full?wol1URL=/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1949.tb00952.x/full®ionCode=GB-EN&identityKey=c95f30c4-40aa-4009-8214-9e6d203aa563) by Guy Callendar in October 1949. The opening sentence is: âAn interpretation of climatic change in terms of the variable carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere was first proposed some sixty years ago by the famous Swedish physicist, Sevante \[sic\] Arrhenius, who made some of the classic experiments on the absorption of heat radiation by gasesâ.
In the United States, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences published a report on [âUnderstanding Climatic Changeâï»ż](https://archive.org/stream/understandingcli00unit/understandingcli00unit_djvu.txt) in 1975. The term âglobal warmingâ started to receive increased use during the 1980s, particularly after âThe New York Timesâ reported on its front page the Congressional testimony of James Hansen, under the headline [âGlobal Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senateâï»ż](https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html?pagewanted=all). But [another report published by the National Academyï»ż](https://www.preventionweb.net/files/2276_climatechangefinal.pdf) in 2005 noted: âThe phrase âclimate changeâ is growing in preferred use to âglobal warmingâ because it helps convey that there are changes in addition to rising temperaturesâ. And as [Jason Samenow pointed out in âThe Washington Postâï»ż](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/29/debunking-the-claim-they-changed-global-warming-to-climate-change-because-its-cooling/?utm_term=.337680f54129), it was pollster Frank Luntz who advised Republican activists in [a memo in 2002ï»ż](https://www.motherjones.com/files/LuntzResearch_environment.pdf) that âItâs time for us to start talking about âclimate changeâ instead of global warming and âconservationâ instead of preservationâ, pointing out: âWhile global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challengeâ.
Of course, the main reason President Trump was wrong is because the Earth has been warming, not cooling, over almost all of its surface during the past century, as this [map produced by NASAï»ż](https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine) clearly illustrates.
President Trump also implied that the polar ice caps are not melting and are at ârecord levelsâ. In fact, the opposite is true. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado, the Arctic sea ice extent on 28 January was at its [lowest ever level for this time of yearï»ż](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) since satellite measurements began in 1979. Record lows were set in 2016 and 2017 for the annual winter maximum of Arctic sea ice extent.
Similarly, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet has been declining markedly at a rate of about 270 billion tonnes each year, according to the latest [âArctic Report Cardâï»ż](ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2017.pdf) by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And while the situation in Antarctica is more complicated, [the most recent studyï»ż](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072937/full) concluded that the ice sheet is losing mass overall despite an increase in snowfall on the eastern side of the continent.
However, this was not the first time since his election that President Trump has demonstrated that he does not understand the science, economics and politics of climate change.
In November 2016, Mr Trump was [interviewed at length by staff at âThe New York Timesâï»ż](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/us/politics/trump-new-york-times-interview-transcript.html) about his views on a wide variety of topics. When asked about climate change, President-Elect Trump said:
âYou know the hottest day ever was in 1890-something, 98. You know, you can make lots of cases for different views. I have a totally open mind. My uncle was for 35 years a professor at M.I.T. He was a great engineer, scientist. He was a great guy. And he was ⊠a long time ago, he had feelings â this was a long time ago â he had feelings on this subject. Itâs a very complex subject. Iâm not sure anybody is ever going to really know. I know we have, they say they have science on one side but then they also have those horrible emails that were sent between the scientists. Where was that, in Geneva or wherever five years ago? Terrible. Where they got caught, you know, so you see that and you say, whatâs this all about. I absolutely have an open mind. I will tell you this: Clean air is vitally important. Clean water, crystal clean water is vitally important. Safety is vitally important.â
Mr Trumpâs answer showed how poorly briefed he was about climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the hottest daytime temperature [was 56.7°C, recorded in Death Valley, California, in 1913ï»ż](https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-meteorological-organization-global-weather-climate-extremes-archive). But this information is irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is happening. It is possible that Mr Trump was trying to remember 1998 which, at the time of the interview, was the warmest year according to one controversial satellite record of the temperature of the lower atmosphere. However, the World Meteorological Organisation had already [indicated that 2016 was likely to surpass 2015 as the hottest yearï»ż](https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-status-of-global-climate-2016) based on surface temperature records, and was part of a clear warming trend.
Mr Trumpâs reference to âhorrible emailsâ was an apparent attempt to recall propaganda spread by climate change deniers about the hacking of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. In fact, nine independent investigations were conducted into the content of the stolen emails and documents by [the Independent Climate Change Email Reviewï»ż](https://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf), [the International Panel set up by the University of East Anglia to examine the research of the Climatic Research Unitï»ż](https://www.uea.ac.uk/documents/3154295/7847337/SAP.pdf/a6f591fc-fc6e-4a70-9648-8b943d84782b), [the House of Commons Select Committee on Science and Technologyï»ż](https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387i.pdf), [Pennsylvania State Universityï»ż](https://www.psu.edu/ur/2014/fromlive/Final_Investigation_Report.pdf), [the United States Environmental Protection Agencyï»ż](https://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute-findings-greenhouse-gases-under-clean-air-act-1#1-3-3), [the Inspector General of the United States Department of Commerceï»ż](https://web.archive.org/web/20110302010948/https:/www.oig.doc.gov/oig/reports/correspondence/2011.02.18_IG_to_Inhofe.pdf) and [the United States National Science Foundationï»ż](https://www.science20.com/uploads/1770191916-429173860.pdf). None of these inquiries concluded that the hacked emails showed serious misconduct by any climate scientists.
And President Trumpâs speech in June last year in the Rose Garden of the White House, during which he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, contained [many false statements](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/president-trumps-speech-on-the-paris-agreement-was-full-of-confusion-and-bogus-claims/) both about the Agreement itself and of the potential economic consequences of remaining part of it.
It is time that Mr Trump educated himself about climate change. He should steer clear of sources of laughable propaganda about the issue, such as Fox News, Breitbart and âThe Wall Street Journalâ. Perhaps if the President does visit the United Kingdom this year, he could pop into Clarence House for a chat and pick up a signed copy of the excellent [Ladybird book on climate changeï»ż](https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/301516/climate-change-a-ladybird-expert-book/).
*Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Grantham Research Institute.*

President Trump announces that the US plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement on Thursday 1 June 2017. (Credit: The White House)
## Authors
### [Bob Ward](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/profile/bob-ward/)
Policy and Communications Director and Interim Executive Director of the Just Transition Finance Lab
[Read more about Bob Ward ](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/profile/bob-ward/)
## Related pages
[Nicholas Stern: ministers must pass âTrump testâ at Bonn climate talks](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/nicholas-stern-ministers-must-pass-trump-test-at-bonn-climate-talks/) [Irma and Harvey lay the costs of climate change denial at Trumpâs door](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/irma-and-harvey-lay-the-costs-of-climate-change-denial-at-trumps-door/) [Good chance Trump wonât end up withdrawing from Paris](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/good-chance-trump-wont-end-up-withdrawing-from-paris/) [Trump to be odd man out amid climate talks at G20 summit](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/trump-to-be-odd-man-out-amid-climate-talks-at-g20-summit/)
## Topics
[Climate science and impacts](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/topics/climate-change-impacts-and-resilience/climate-science-and-impacts/) [Leadership](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/topics/global-action/leadership/) [Major emitting countries](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/topics/global-action/major-emitting-countries/)
## Keywords
[climate science](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/climate-science/) [communicating climate change](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/communicating-climate-change/) [implementing the Paris Agreement](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/implementing-the-paris-agreement/) [media coverage](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/media-coverage/) [President Trump](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/president-trump/) [United States](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/tag/united-states/)
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| Readable Markdown | 
President Trump announces that the US plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement on Thursday 1 June 2017. (Credit: The White House)
President Trump again demonstrated this weekend that he is a major source of fake news about climate change.
During [an interview broadcast on 28 January on ITVï»ż](https://www.itv.com/hub/president-trump-the-piers-morgan-interview/2a5582a0001) in the UK, Piers Morgan asked Mr Trump for his views both on the Paris Agreement and on whether he believes in climate change.
The Presidentâs answers revealed the very deep level of his ignorance. Towards the end of the interview (from about 36 minutes), the following exchange occurred:
Piers Morgan: âQuick fire. Climate change. For you is it about the science or is it about the money? The Paris Accord.â
President Trump: âI think itâs about everything, and Iâm a believer in clean air and clean water. The Paris Accord for us would have been a disaster.â
Piers Morgan: âAre you completely out of that?â
President Trump: âIâm completely out of it.â
Piers Morgan: âNo way back?â
President Trump: âEr, there could be a way back. First of all it was a terrible deal for the United States. If they made a good deal, like if they made a good deal with TPP \[Trans-Pacific Partnership\], you know with having to do with trade, thereâs always a chance weâd get back. But it was a terrible deal for the United States. It was unfair to the United States.â
This exposed President Trumpâs longstanding lack of understanding about the Paris Agreement. The United States Government [ratified the Agreement on 3 September 2016ï»ż](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/09/03/president-obama-united-states-formally-enters-paris-agreement). The Agreement [came into force on 4 November 2016ï»ż](https://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php). [Article 28 of the Agreementï»ż](https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf) states that any country that wishes to withdraw could not start the procedure until three years after it came into force, and that the process would take a year. Hence the earliest that the Trump Administration could complete withdrawal would be 4 November 2020, the day after the next election for the President of the United States.
President Trumpâs claim that the Paris Agreement is âa terrible deal forâ and âunfair toâ the United States is also completely false. The Agreement does not commit the United States to any specific actions to tackle climate change. Instead, the Obama Administration submitted a voluntary [ânationally determined contributionâï»ż](https://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf) to the Agreement. Like other countries, the United States can review this contribution over the next two years, and the Trump Administration could submit in 2020 a new statement that the President considers to be âfairerâ for the United States, without having to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
However, it was the next exchange during the interview that showed President Trump does not have a grasp of the science of climate change:
Piers Morgan: âDo you believe in climate change? Do you think it exists?â
President Trump: âEr, there is a cooling, thereâs a heating. Look it used to not be climate change, it used to be global warming, right?â
Piers Morgan: âRight.â
President Trump: âThat wasnât working too well because it was getting too cold all over the place. Ah, the ice caps were going to melt, they were going to be gone by now, but now theyâre setting records, ok, theyâre at a record level. There were so many things happening, Piers.â
In this case, Mr Trump appeared to show that he relies on the propaganda of climate change deniers instead of the advice of scientists. His suggestion that the term âclimate changeâ has only been introduced recently because the Earth is âgetting too cold all over the placeâ is hopelessly wrong. âClimate changeâ and its variants have been used for more than half a century. For instance, the magazine âWeatherâ published an article called [âCan Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?âï»ż](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1949.tb00952.x/full?wol1URL=/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1949.tb00952.x/full®ionCode=GB-EN&identityKey=c95f30c4-40aa-4009-8214-9e6d203aa563) by Guy Callendar in October 1949. The opening sentence is: âAn interpretation of climatic change in terms of the variable carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere was first proposed some sixty years ago by the famous Swedish physicist, Sevante \[sic\] Arrhenius, who made some of the classic experiments on the absorption of heat radiation by gasesâ.
In the United States, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences published a report on [âUnderstanding Climatic Changeâï»ż](https://archive.org/stream/understandingcli00unit/understandingcli00unit_djvu.txt) in 1975. The term âglobal warmingâ started to receive increased use during the 1980s, particularly after âThe New York Timesâ reported on its front page the Congressional testimony of James Hansen, under the headline [âGlobal Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senateâï»ż](https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html?pagewanted=all). But [another report published by the National Academyï»ż](https://www.preventionweb.net/files/2276_climatechangefinal.pdf) in 2005 noted: âThe phrase âclimate changeâ is growing in preferred use to âglobal warmingâ because it helps convey that there are changes in addition to rising temperaturesâ. And as [Jason Samenow pointed out in âThe Washington Postâï»ż](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/29/debunking-the-claim-they-changed-global-warming-to-climate-change-because-its-cooling/?utm_term=.337680f54129), it was pollster Frank Luntz who advised Republican activists in [a memo in 2002ï»ż](https://www.motherjones.com/files/LuntzResearch_environment.pdf) that âItâs time for us to start talking about âclimate changeâ instead of global warming and âconservationâ instead of preservationâ, pointing out: âWhile global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challengeâ.
Of course, the main reason President Trump was wrong is because the Earth has been warming, not cooling, over almost all of its surface during the past century, as this [map produced by NASAï»ż](https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine) clearly illustrates.
President Trump also implied that the polar ice caps are not melting and are at ârecord levelsâ. In fact, the opposite is true. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado, the Arctic sea ice extent on 28 January was at its [lowest ever level for this time of yearï»ż](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) since satellite measurements began in 1979. Record lows were set in 2016 and 2017 for the annual winter maximum of Arctic sea ice extent.
Similarly, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet has been declining markedly at a rate of about 270 billion tonnes each year, according to the latest [âArctic Report Cardâï»ż](ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2017.pdf) by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And while the situation in Antarctica is more complicated, [the most recent studyï»ż](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072937/full) concluded that the ice sheet is losing mass overall despite an increase in snowfall on the eastern side of the continent.
However, this was not the first time since his election that President Trump has demonstrated that he does not understand the science, economics and politics of climate change.
In November 2016, Mr Trump was [interviewed at length by staff at âThe New York Timesâï»ż](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/us/politics/trump-new-york-times-interview-transcript.html) about his views on a wide variety of topics. When asked about climate change, President-Elect Trump said:
âYou know the hottest day ever was in 1890-something, 98. You know, you can make lots of cases for different views. I have a totally open mind. My uncle was for 35 years a professor at M.I.T. He was a great engineer, scientist. He was a great guy. And he was ⊠a long time ago, he had feelings â this was a long time ago â he had feelings on this subject. Itâs a very complex subject. Iâm not sure anybody is ever going to really know. I know we have, they say they have science on one side but then they also have those horrible emails that were sent between the scientists. Where was that, in Geneva or wherever five years ago? Terrible. Where they got caught, you know, so you see that and you say, whatâs this all about. I absolutely have an open mind. I will tell you this: Clean air is vitally important. Clean water, crystal clean water is vitally important. Safety is vitally important.â
Mr Trumpâs answer showed how poorly briefed he was about climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the hottest daytime temperature [was 56.7°C, recorded in Death Valley, California, in 1913ï»ż](https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-meteorological-organization-global-weather-climate-extremes-archive). But this information is irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is happening. It is possible that Mr Trump was trying to remember 1998 which, at the time of the interview, was the warmest year according to one controversial satellite record of the temperature of the lower atmosphere. However, the World Meteorological Organisation had already [indicated that 2016 was likely to surpass 2015 as the hottest yearï»ż](https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-status-of-global-climate-2016) based on surface temperature records, and was part of a clear warming trend.
Mr Trumpâs reference to âhorrible emailsâ was an apparent attempt to recall propaganda spread by climate change deniers about the hacking of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. In fact, nine independent investigations were conducted into the content of the stolen emails and documents by [the Independent Climate Change Email Reviewï»ż](https://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf), [the International Panel set up by the University of East Anglia to examine the research of the Climatic Research Unitï»ż](https://www.uea.ac.uk/documents/3154295/7847337/SAP.pdf/a6f591fc-fc6e-4a70-9648-8b943d84782b), [the House of Commons Select Committee on Science and Technologyï»ż](https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387i.pdf), [Pennsylvania State Universityï»ż](https://www.psu.edu/ur/2014/fromlive/Final_Investigation_Report.pdf), [the United States Environmental Protection Agencyï»ż](https://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment-and-cause-or-contribute-findings-greenhouse-gases-under-clean-air-act-1#1-3-3), [the Inspector General of the United States Department of Commerceï»ż](https://web.archive.org/web/20110302010948/https:/www.oig.doc.gov/oig/reports/correspondence/2011.02.18_IG_to_Inhofe.pdf) and [the United States National Science Foundationï»ż](https://www.science20.com/uploads/1770191916-429173860.pdf). None of these inquiries concluded that the hacked emails showed serious misconduct by any climate scientists.
And President Trumpâs speech in June last year in the Rose Garden of the White House, during which he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, contained [many false statements](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/president-trumps-speech-on-the-paris-agreement-was-full-of-confusion-and-bogus-claims/) both about the Agreement itself and of the potential economic consequences of remaining part of it.
It is time that Mr Trump educated himself about climate change. He should steer clear of sources of laughable propaganda about the issue, such as Fox News, Breitbart and âThe Wall Street Journalâ. Perhaps if the President does visit the United Kingdom this year, he could pop into Clarence House for a chat and pick up a signed copy of the excellent [Ladybird book on climate changeï»ż](https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/301516/climate-change-a-ladybird-expert-book/).
*Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Grantham Research Institute.* |
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