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[开放获取声明](https://www.jbjc.org/kaifanghuoqushengming) - [English](https://www.jbjc.org/indexen.htm) ## 2022年北京冬奥会和冬残奥会闭环管理新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控效果评价 - [王雪纯](), - [闫翔宇](), - [裴少君](), - [贾忠伟]() ## Evaluation of effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention and control in a closed-loop management manner during Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games - [Wang Xuechun](), - [Yan Xiangyu](), - [Pei Shaojun](), - [Jia Zhongwei]() - [摘要]() - [HTML全文]() - [图(4) 表(3)]() - [参考文献(21)]() - [相关文章]() - [施引文献]() - [资源附件(0)]() - **摘要:** **目的** 定量评估北京冬奥会和冬残奥会（北京冬残奥会）闭环管理对新冠疫情控制的效果。 **方法** 收集2022年1月4日至3月13日的北京冬残奥会新型冠状病毒肺炎防疫报告数据（机场入境人数、核酸检测等信息），利用群体传播动力学模型模拟非闭环（常态化）管理每日新增感染人数、每日检出率、累计检出率，与实际数据比较分析，评估闭环管理防控效果。 **结果** 模型结果提示，如果采取常态化管理，北京冬残奥会期间每日新增感染人数于2月12日达到峰值（120人），较实际峰值推迟了10 d且增加了94人；相比于常态化管理，闭环管理可避免95.24%的感染者（3 763 比 179）；常态化管理累计检出率为闭环管理21.02倍（0.15% 比 0.07‰）。 此期间，实际机场入境运动员和随队官员与其他利益相关方累计检出率相近（1.68% 比 1.76%）；进入闭环内，两类人群的累计检出率均下降（0.49‰ 比 0.05‰），其中运动员和随队官员的每日检出率远高于其他利益相关方（最高每日检出率：3.15‰ 比0.22‰）。 **结论** 北京冬残奥会闭环管理能早期发现感染者，有效降低感染人数，为未来大型体育赛事疫情防控策略制定提供借鉴。 **Abstract:** **Objective** To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of closed-loop management in the control of COVID-19 during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games in 2022. **Methods** The information about COVID-19 prevention and control during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games from January 4 to March 13, 2022, such as the airport arrivals and confirmed positive cases, were collected. According to the non-closed-loop management (regular epidemic prevention and control measure), a population transmission dynamic model was built to simulate daily new infections, daily detection rate and cumulative detection rate, and the results were compared with the actual data to evaluate the effectiveness of the closed-loop management. **Results** The results of the model suggested that if regular management were adopted, the daily number of new infections during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympic would reach the peak on February 12 (120), 10 days later than the actual peak and an increase of 94 cases. Compared with regular management, closed-loop management might prevent 95.24% of infections (3,763 *vs*. 179); The cumulative detection rate of regular management was 21.02 times higher than that of closed-loop management (0.15% *vs*. 0.07‰). During this period, the cumulative detection rates of actual airport inbound athletes, team officials and other stakeholders were similar (1.68% *vs.* 1.76%). In the closed loop, the cumulative detection rate of both groups decreased (0.49‰ *vs*. 0.05‰), and the daily detection rate of athletes and team officials was much higher than that of other stakeholders (the highest daily detection rate: 3.15‰ *vs*. 0.22‰). **Conclusion** The closed-loop management during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games could detect the infections early and effectively reduce the number of infections, providing a reference for developing epidemic prevention and control strategies for future large-scale sports events. ![]() / 下载: [全尺寸图片]() [幻灯片]() [返回文章]() - 分享 [返回]() [在线交流](https://jq.qq.com/?_wv=1027&k=5elLdNA) ×Close ## **导出文件** #### 文件类别 RIS(可直接使用Endnote编辑器进行编辑) Bib(可直接使用Latex编辑器进行编辑) Txt #### 引用内容 引文——仅导出文章的Citation信息 引文和摘要——导出文章的Citation信息和文章摘要信息 导出 关闭 ×Close ## **引用参考文献格式** 复制 关闭

**摘要:** **目的** 定量评估北京冬奥会和冬残奥会（北京冬残奥会）闭环管理对新冠疫情控制的效果。 **方法** 收集2022年1月4日至3月13日的北京冬残奥会新型冠状病毒肺炎防疫报告数据（机场入境人数、核酸检测等信息），利用群体传播动力学模型模拟非闭环（常态化）管理每日新增感染人数、每日检出率、累计检出率，与实际数据比较分析，评估闭环管理防控效果。 **结果** 模型结果提示，如果采取常态化管理，北京冬残奥会期间每日新增感染人数于2月12日达到峰值（120人），较实际峰值推迟了10 d且增加了94人；相比于常态化管理，闭环管理可避免95.24%的感染者（3 763 比 179）；常态化管理累计检出率为闭环管理21.02倍（0.15% 比 0.07‰）。 此期间，实际机场入境运动员和随队官员与其他利益相关方累计检出率相近（1.68% 比 1.76%）；进入闭环内，两类人群的累计检出率均下降（0.49‰ 比 0.05‰），其中运动员和随队官员的每日检出率远高于其他利益相关方（最高每日检出率：3.15‰ 比0.22‰）。 **结论** 北京冬残奥会闭环管理能早期发现感染者，有效降低感染人数，为未来大型体育赛事疫情防控策略制定提供借鉴。 **Abstract:** **Objective** To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of closed-loop management in the control of COVID-19 during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games in 2022. **Methods** The information about COVID-19 prevention and control during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games from January 4 to March 13, 2022, such as the airport arrivals and confirmed positive cases, were collected. According to the non-closed-loop management (regular epidemic prevention and control measure), a population transmission dynamic model was built to simulate daily new infections, daily detection rate and cumulative detection rate, and the results were compared with the actual data to evaluate the effectiveness of the closed-loop management. **Results** The results of the model suggested that if regular management were adopted, the daily number of new infections during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympic would reach the peak on February 12 (120), 10 days later than the actual peak and an increase of 94 cases. Compared with regular management, closed-loop management might prevent 95.24% of infections (3,763 *vs*. 179); The cumulative detection rate of regular management was 21.02 times higher than that of closed-loop management (0.15% *vs*. 0.07‰). During this period, the cumulative detection rates of actual airport inbound athletes, team officials and other stakeholders were similar (1.68% *vs.* 1.76%). In the closed loop, the cumulative detection rate of both groups decreased (0.49‰ *vs*. 0.05‰), and the daily detection rate of athletes and team officials was much higher than that of other stakeholders (the highest daily detection rate: 3.15‰ *vs*. 0.22‰). **Conclusion** The closed-loop management during Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games could detect the infections early and effectively reduce the number of infections, providing a reference for developing epidemic prevention and control strategies for future large-scale sports events.