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| URL | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/03/10/after-five-years-what-is-the-cost-of-fukushima/ |
| Last Crawled | 2026-04-10 14:13:55 (6 days ago) |
| First Indexed | 2017-03-22 17:22:23 (9 years ago) |
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| Meta Title | After Five Years, What Is The Cost Of Fukushima? |
| Meta Description | The direct costs of the Fukushima disaster will be about $15 billion in clean-up over the next 20 years and over $60 billion in refugee compensation. Replacing Japan’s 300 billion kWhs from nuclear each year with fossil fuels has cost Japan over $200 billion, mostly from fuel costs for natural gas, fuel oil and coal. This cost will at least double, and that only if the nuclear fleet is mostly restarted by 2020. Since 2011, Japan’s trade deficit has become the worst in its history, and Japan is now the second largest net importer of fossil fuel in the world, right behind China. Strangely, the costs that never materialized were the most feared, those of radiation-induced cancer and death. |
| Meta Canonical | null |
| Boilerpipe Text | The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant following the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11
th
of March in 2011 has proven costly in many ways – politically, economically and emotionally. Strangely, the costs that never materialized were the most feared, those of radiation-induced cancer and death.
No radiological health effects
have yet to result from the Fukushima disaster - neither cancers, deaths nor radiation sickness - although the WHO models indicate a slight increase is statistically possible. No one received enough dose, even the 20,000 workers who have worked tirelessly to recover from this event.
The direct costs of the Fukushima disaster will be about $15 billion in clean-up over the next 20 years and over
$60 billion in refugee compensation
. Replacing Japan’s 300 billion kWhs from nuclear each year with fossil fuels has
cost Japan over $200 billion
, mostly from fuel costs for natural gas, fuel oil and coal, as
renewables have failed to expand
in Japan. This cost will at least double, and that only if the nuclear fleet is mostly restarted by 2020.
The
reconstruction and recovery costs
associated with just the earthquake and the tsunami will top $250 billion. Since 2011, Japan’s trade deficit has become
the worst in its history
, and Japan is now the
second largest net importer of fossil fuel in the world
, right behind China.
These costs may seem high, but it was the largest tsunami in history that hit the densest-populated industrialized country in history.
The Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant before and after the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011. The costs from this disaster will exceed $500 billion, but there will be no deaths or cancers from it. Source: PNNL
Five years ago, a magnitude 9 earthquake on the Tohoku Fault off the east coast of Japan sent a 50-foot tsunami crashing into the coast with almost no warning, flooding over 500 square miles of land, killing almost 20,000 people, destroying a million homes and businesses, and making 300,000 people homeless.
When the earthquake hit the region around Fukushima,
eleven operating nuclear reactors
at four power plants all shut down automatically. None were damaged by the earthquake itself. However, the inadequate sea wall surrounding the six reactors at
Tokyo Electric Power
Company's Fukushima Daiichi plant allowed the tsunami to inundate the plant and destroy the back-up generating systems and electrical switchgear necessary to maintain cooling. Four reactors were destroyed and 940 PBq of fission products and radioactive material were dispersed into the air.
By March 13th, 150,000 people were ordered to evacuate from within 20 kilometers of the nuclear plant. This was very effective in
preventing any and all radiation-induced health-effects
to the public thus far. However, over
1,000 deaths were caused solely by the evacuation
, not from radiation, the earthquake or the tsunami. The only health effects suffered continue to be from
stress, depression and fear
.
As the level of radiation drops both naturally through decay, and as a result of active decontamination, the evacuation orders are being lifted. It is expected that 70% of the evacuees will be allowed to return home by next year, 2017, although many in the public do not trust the government’s assurances.
No other operating nuclear reactors in Japan were damaged or affected by the earthquake or the tsunami. The immediate urge to shut down all 50+ Japanese nuclear reactors was understandable, but has caused more harm than good.
Japan only has 15 nuclear reactors at any risk from a tsunami
. Shutting down these 15 reactors was reasonable in order to determine how to make them more resistant to this particular threat.
But all the other reactors were not at risk from tsunamis and could have continued operating during the safety review following the accident, during formation of the new nuclear regulatory authority, and during the development and implementation of the new safety measures. They had no issues. Closing all of them at once caused energy imports into Japan to rise to
85% of its energy requirements
, increasing coal, oil and gas dramatically along with their
demonstrably-worse health effects
.
Many actions are being taken to shore up Japan's tsunami defenses. Hokkaido is building a 6.5-meter-high seawall that will run 1.25-km at its Tomari nuclear plant. Kansai will spend $2.5 billion over four years to tsunami-proof its reactors.
Chubu Electric Power
Co. is increasing tsunami and flood protection at its Hamaoka nuclear plant.
These are reasonable precautions to address these few reactors actually at risk from this danger. Currently 43 reactors are operable and potentially able to restart, and 24 of these are in the process of restart approvals. The first two reactors were restarted in late 2015 and a third will restart in the first half of 2016. |
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# After Five Years, What Is The Cost Of Fukushima?
By[James Conca](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/ "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/"),
Former Contributor.
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights.
I write about nuclear, energy and the environment
Mar 10, 2016, 06:00am EST
Apr 27, 2016, 10:56am EDT
This article is more than 10 years old.
The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant following the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011 has proven costly in many ways – politically, economically and emotionally. Strangely, the costs that never materialized were the most feared, those of radiation-induced cancer and death. [No radiological health effects](http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2013/unisinf475.html) have yet to result from the Fukushima disaster - neither cancers, deaths nor radiation sickness - although the WHO models indicate a slight increase is statistically possible. No one received enough dose, even the 20,000 workers who have worked tirelessly to recover from this event.
The direct costs of the Fukushima disaster will be about \$15 billion in clean-up over the next 20 years and over [\$60 billion in refugee compensation](http://phys.org/news/2015-07-tepco-fukushima-compensation-bn.html). Replacing Japan’s 300 billion kWhs from nuclear each year with fossil fuels has [cost Japan over \$200 billion](http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5252.pdf), mostly from fuel costs for natural gas, fuel oil and coal, as [renewables have failed to expand](http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/43409/japan-land-of-the-rising-sun/) in Japan. This cost will at least double, and that only if the nuclear fleet is mostly restarted by 2020.
The [reconstruction and recovery costs](http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/) associated with just the earthquake and the tsunami will top \$250 billion. Since 2011, Japan’s trade deficit has become [the worst in its history](http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/trade-balance/japan-posts-largest-annual-trade-deficit-on-record), and Japan is now the [second largest net importer of fossil fuel in the world](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13711), right behind China.
These costs may seem high, but it was the largest tsunami in history that hit the densest-populated industrialized country in history.

The Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant before and after the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011. The costs from this disaster will exceed \$500 billion, but there will be no deaths or cancers from it. Source: PNNL
Five years ago, a magnitude 9 earthquake on the Tohoku Fault off the east coast of Japan sent a 50-foot tsunami crashing into the coast with almost no warning, flooding over 500 square miles of land, killing almost 20,000 people, destroying a million homes and businesses, and making 300,000 people homeless.
When the earthquake hit the region around Fukushima, [eleven operating nuclear reactors](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx) at four power plants all shut down automatically. None were damaged by the earthquake itself. However, the inadequate sea wall surrounding the six reactors at [Tokyo Electric Power](https://www.forbes.com/companies/tokyo-electric-power/) Company's Fukushima Daiichi plant allowed the tsunami to inundate the plant and destroy the back-up generating systems and electrical switchgear necessary to maintain cooling. Four reactors were destroyed and 940 PBq of fission products and radioactive material were dispersed into the air.
By March 13th, 150,000 people were ordered to evacuate from within 20 kilometers of the nuclear plant. This was very effective in [preventing any and all radiation-induced health-effects](http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2013/unisinf475.html) to the public thus far. However, over [1,000 deaths were caused solely by the evacuation](http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/), not from radiation, the earthquake or the tsunami. The only health effects suffered continue to be from [stress, depression and fear](http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/pub_meet/fukushima_risk_assessment_2013/en/).
As the level of radiation drops both naturally through decay, and as a result of active decontamination, the evacuation orders are being lifted. It is expected that 70% of the evacuees will be allowed to return home by next year, 2017, although many in the public do not trust the government’s assurances.
No other operating nuclear reactors in Japan were damaged or affected by the earthquake or the tsunami. The immediate urge to shut down all 50+ Japanese nuclear reactors was understandable, but has caused more harm than good. [Japan only has 15 nuclear reactors at any risk from a tsunami](http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/8-Countries-With-Nuclear-Power-Plants-Most-At-Risk-Of-Tsunamis.html). Shutting down these 15 reactors was reasonable in order to determine how to make them more resistant to this particular threat.
But all the other reactors were not at risk from tsunamis and could have continued operating during the safety review following the accident, during formation of the new nuclear regulatory authority, and during the development and implementation of the new safety measures. They had no issues. Closing all of them at once caused energy imports into Japan to rise to [85% of its energy requirements](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx), increasing coal, oil and gas dramatically along with their [demonstrably-worse health effects](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#775b0afe49d2).
Many actions are being taken to shore up Japan's tsunami defenses. Hokkaido is building a 6.5-meter-high seawall that will run 1.25-km at its Tomari nuclear plant. Kansai will spend \$2.5 billion over four years to tsunami-proof its reactors. [Chubu Electric Power](https://www.forbes.com/companies/chubu-electric-power/) Co. is increasing tsunami and flood protection at its Hamaoka nuclear plant.
These are reasonable precautions to address these few reactors actually at risk from this danger. Currently 43 reactors are operable and potentially able to restart, and 24 of these are in the process of restart approvals. The first two reactors were restarted in late 2015 and a third will restart in the first half of 2016.
The fifth anniversary of the accident brings more optimism than could have been predicted five years ago. The government has removed almost 10 million cubic yards of contaminated soil and debris, and washed down buildings and roadways to get outdoor radiation exposures to below 1 mSv /year (100 mrem/year), a level lower than almost anywhere in the United States. [Rural decontamination is complete in more than half of the evacuation zone](http://www.hiroshimasyndrome.com/fukushima-accident-updates.html). Fukushima-grown food [has no detectable radiation from the accident](http://www.fukushimaminponews.com/news.html?id=480). The [fishing stocks](http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/f1/smp/2015/images/fish02_150217-e.pdf) off the Japanese coast [are not contaminated](http://rpd.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/05/01/rpd.ncu150). The ocean off the coast of Fukushima [is not contaminated](http://radioactivity.nsr.go.jp/en/contents/11000/10904/24/278_2_20160309.pdf). Even though some radiation is still leaking from the site, the volume is too small to effect anyone or anything offsite, and [containment is almost complete](http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Fukushima-Daiichi-ice-wall-equipment-in-place-1002165.html).
But the recovery needs to accelerate to prevent lingering personal and economic hardship for the country and so many of its people. A look at the Fukushima Recovery Plan is the subject of my next post.
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| Readable Markdown | The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant following the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011 has proven costly in many ways – politically, economically and emotionally. Strangely, the costs that never materialized were the most feared, those of radiation-induced cancer and death. [No radiological health effects](http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2013/unisinf475.html) have yet to result from the Fukushima disaster - neither cancers, deaths nor radiation sickness - although the WHO models indicate a slight increase is statistically possible. No one received enough dose, even the 20,000 workers who have worked tirelessly to recover from this event.
The direct costs of the Fukushima disaster will be about \$15 billion in clean-up over the next 20 years and over [\$60 billion in refugee compensation](http://phys.org/news/2015-07-tepco-fukushima-compensation-bn.html). Replacing Japan’s 300 billion kWhs from nuclear each year with fossil fuels has [cost Japan over \$200 billion](http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5252.pdf), mostly from fuel costs for natural gas, fuel oil and coal, as [renewables have failed to expand](http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/43409/japan-land-of-the-rising-sun/) in Japan. This cost will at least double, and that only if the nuclear fleet is mostly restarted by 2020.
The [reconstruction and recovery costs](http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/) associated with just the earthquake and the tsunami will top \$250 billion. Since 2011, Japan’s trade deficit has become [the worst in its history](http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/trade-balance/japan-posts-largest-annual-trade-deficit-on-record), and Japan is now the [second largest net importer of fossil fuel in the world](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13711), right behind China.
These costs may seem high, but it was the largest tsunami in history that hit the densest-populated industrialized country in history.

The Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant before and after the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011. The costs from this disaster will exceed \$500 billion, but there will be no deaths or cancers from it. Source: PNNL
Five years ago, a magnitude 9 earthquake on the Tohoku Fault off the east coast of Japan sent a 50-foot tsunami crashing into the coast with almost no warning, flooding over 500 square miles of land, killing almost 20,000 people, destroying a million homes and businesses, and making 300,000 people homeless.
When the earthquake hit the region around Fukushima, [eleven operating nuclear reactors](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx) at four power plants all shut down automatically. None were damaged by the earthquake itself. However, the inadequate sea wall surrounding the six reactors at [Tokyo Electric Power](https://www.forbes.com/companies/tokyo-electric-power/) Company's Fukushima Daiichi plant allowed the tsunami to inundate the plant and destroy the back-up generating systems and electrical switchgear necessary to maintain cooling. Four reactors were destroyed and 940 PBq of fission products and radioactive material were dispersed into the air.
By March 13th, 150,000 people were ordered to evacuate from within 20 kilometers of the nuclear plant. This was very effective in [preventing any and all radiation-induced health-effects](http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2013/unisinf475.html) to the public thus far. However, over [1,000 deaths were caused solely by the evacuation](http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/), not from radiation, the earthquake or the tsunami. The only health effects suffered continue to be from [stress, depression and fear](http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/pub_meet/fukushima_risk_assessment_2013/en/).
As the level of radiation drops both naturally through decay, and as a result of active decontamination, the evacuation orders are being lifted. It is expected that 70% of the evacuees will be allowed to return home by next year, 2017, although many in the public do not trust the government’s assurances.
No other operating nuclear reactors in Japan were damaged or affected by the earthquake or the tsunami. The immediate urge to shut down all 50+ Japanese nuclear reactors was understandable, but has caused more harm than good. [Japan only has 15 nuclear reactors at any risk from a tsunami](http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/8-Countries-With-Nuclear-Power-Plants-Most-At-Risk-Of-Tsunamis.html). Shutting down these 15 reactors was reasonable in order to determine how to make them more resistant to this particular threat.
But all the other reactors were not at risk from tsunamis and could have continued operating during the safety review following the accident, during formation of the new nuclear regulatory authority, and during the development and implementation of the new safety measures. They had no issues. Closing all of them at once caused energy imports into Japan to rise to [85% of its energy requirements](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx), increasing coal, oil and gas dramatically along with their [demonstrably-worse health effects](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#775b0afe49d2).
Many actions are being taken to shore up Japan's tsunami defenses. Hokkaido is building a 6.5-meter-high seawall that will run 1.25-km at its Tomari nuclear plant. Kansai will spend \$2.5 billion over four years to tsunami-proof its reactors. [Chubu Electric Power](https://www.forbes.com/companies/chubu-electric-power/) Co. is increasing tsunami and flood protection at its Hamaoka nuclear plant.
These are reasonable precautions to address these few reactors actually at risk from this danger. Currently 43 reactors are operable and potentially able to restart, and 24 of these are in the process of restart approvals. The first two reactors were restarted in late 2015 and a third will restart in the first half of 2016. |
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