🕷️ Crawler Inspector

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Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 19 (from laksa151)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa019.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://tradersunion.com/news/editors-picks/show/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes/\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://tradersunion.com/news/editors-picks/show/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes/\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/editors-picks\/show\/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes\/","crawl_time":1775228542,"first_indexed_time":1772532564,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,tradersunion!\/news\/editors-picks\/show\/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes\/ s443","src_root_hash":"16086096078690973819","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes: How high could BTC go?","meta_descriptions":["Arthur Hayes links US–Iran tensions to potential Fed rate cuts and a possible new Bitcoin rally."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a military conflict between the United States and Iran could ultimately play in Bitcoin’s favor. If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow?\nMoney matters more than missiles\nEveryone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how\nU.S. authorities might respond\n. In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy.\nLoading...\nHayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets.\nHayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers\nBitcoin\nto be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve.\nArthur Hayes’ boldest predictions\nArthur Hayes\nhas long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening.\nHe has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the $70,000–75,000 range and then surge to $250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to $200,000.\nLoading...\nAnother notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April.\nLoading...\nOver the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions?\nA controversial reputation\nArthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars.\nHowever, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation.\nAs a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict.\nAre there real grounds for growth?\nBitcoin is currently trading around $67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly $2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish.\nIf the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.”\nHowever, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge.\nThe bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy.\nThis material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our\nDisclaimer\n. While we adhere to strict\nEditorial Integrity\n, this post may contain references to products from our partners.","attrs_markdown":"[![logo](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/dist\/main\/img\/tunews-logo.svg)](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/)\n\nOnline Trading Starts Here\n\nSearch\n\nSign in with\n\n[Login](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/user\/register\/)   [Registration](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/user\/register\/)\n\nEN \/news\/editors-picks\/show\/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes\/\n\nAR Arabic\n\nAZ Azerbaijan\n\nCS Czech\n\nDA Danish\n\nDE Deutsche\n\nEL Greek\n\nEN English\n\nES Spanish\n\nET Estonian\n\nFI Finnish\n\nFR French\n\nHE Hebrew\n\nHI Hindi\n\nHU Hungarian\n\nHY Armenian\n\nIND Indonesian\n\nIT Italian\n\nJA Japan\n\nKK Kazakh\n\nKM Khmer\n\nKO Korean\n\nMS Melayu\n\nNB Norwegian\n\nNL Dutch\n\nPL Polish\n\nPT Portuguese\n\nRO Romanian\n\n... Русский\n\nSQ Albanian\n\nSV Swedish\n\nTG Tajik\n\nTH Thai\n\nTL Tagalog\n\nTR Turkish\n\nUA Ukrainian\n\nUR Urdu\n\nUZ Uzbek\n\nVI Vietnamese\n\nZH Chinese\n\n- BEST BROKERS\n- GUIDES\n- BROKER REVIEWS\n- PRICE PREDICTIONS\n- WHO WE ARE\n- NEWS\n\nMenu\n\n- [Traders Union](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/)\n- [All News](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/)\n- [Editors' Picks](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/editors-picks\/)\n- Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes\n\n[![Pocket Option](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/dist\/ui-kit\/img\/sprite.svg?v=5#logo-pocket-option) Double your capital in 5 minutes? It’s possible. The risk is extreme. Are you ready? ![Pocket Option](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/dist\/main\/img\/banners\/pocket-option\/branded-banner-pocket-option-news-2-bg.jpg) Take the risk now Warning! The advertiser is not regulated in your country. High risk of losing all capital. Trade what you are willing to lose. 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If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow?\n\n## Money matters more than missiles\nEveryone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how [U.S. authorities might respond](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/cryptocurrency-news\/show\/1594485-arthur-hayes-u-s-conflict-with-iran\/). In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy.\n\n> Loading...\n> \n> #### The tweet was deleted by the author.\n> But we saved everything 🙂.\n\nHayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets.\n\nHayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers [Bitcoin](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/currencies\/price\/btc-usd\/) to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve.\n\n## Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions\n[Arthur Hayes](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/persons\/arthur-hayes\/) has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening.\n\nHe has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the \\$70,000–75,000 range and then surge to \\$250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to \\$200,000.\n\n> Loading...\n> \n> #### The tweet was deleted by the author.\n> But we saved everything 🙂.\n\nAnother notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April.\n\n> Loading...\n> \n> #### The tweet was deleted by the author.\n> But we saved everything 🙂.\n\nOver the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach \\$1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions?\n\n## A controversial reputation\nArthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars.\n\nHowever, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation.\n\nAs a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict.\n\n## Are there real grounds for growth?\nBitcoin is currently trading around \\$67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly \\$2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish.\n\nIf the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.”\n\nHowever, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge.\n\nThe bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy.\n\nThis material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our [Disclaimer](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/terms-of-use\/#p10). While we adhere to strict [Editorial Integrity](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/editorial-guidelines\/), this post may contain references to products from our partners.\n\nSubscribe to TU news\n\n[![social-youtube](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/src\/ui-new\/icons-original\/social-youtube.svg)](https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCJAvamKrxyWSXJwXAfwgswg?sub_confirmation=1)   [![social-telegram](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/src\/ui-new\/icons-original\/social-telegram.svg)](https:\/\/t.me\/tu_crypto_news_en)   [![social-twitter](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/src\/ui-new\/icons-original\/social-twitter.svg)](https:\/\/x.com\/TU_Crypto_News)\n\nDid you like the article?\n\nThank you for your feedback\\!\n\nWhat could we improve?\n\nsend\n\nShare this post\n\nUp to 50% bonus and over 1,000 trading instruments\\!\n\n- **Up to 50% deposit bonus** – boost your trading capital.\n- **1,000+ instruments** – trade forex, indices, stocks, and ETFs.\n- **Licensed by four regulators** 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Bitcoin News\n[![Bitcoin price prediction by Fidelity Digital Assets: Market is becoming more mature](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/uploads\/images\/tu-news\/02026\/04\/1839250\/small\/bitcoin-price-prediction-by-fidelity_small.jpg)](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/editors-picks\/show\/1839250-bitcoin-price-prediction-by-fidelity\/)\n\n- By Eugene Komchuk\n- 5 hours ago\n\n[Bitcoin price prediction by Fidelity Digital Assets: Market is becoming more mature](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/editors-picks\/show\/1839250-bitcoin-price-prediction-by-fidelity\/)\n\nEditors' Picks\n\n[\\#Fidelity](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/tag\/fidelity\/)   [\\#Bitcoin](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/tag\/bitcoin\/)\n\n[![Bitcoin edges higher after Strait of Hormuz transit disruption rattles 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For over 10 years we consider our independence, absolute openness, and objectivity as our main priority. Please follow the links to each of our affiliated broker’s websites. This will help Tradersunion.com to continue to provide our services to you for free.\n\n[![onepercentfortheplanet.org](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/dist\/index-v3\/img\/footer\/percent-for-the-planet.png)](https:\/\/directories.onepercentfortheplanet.org\/profile\/traders-union-llc)\n\n[![https:\/\/gdpr.eu\/](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/assets\/dist\/index-v3\/img\/footer\/gdpr.png) GDPR](https:\/\/gdpr.eu\/)","attrs_readable_markdown":"BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a military conflict between the United States and Iran could ultimately play in Bitcoin’s favor. If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow?\n\n## Money matters more than missiles\nEveryone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how [U.S. authorities might respond](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/news\/cryptocurrency-news\/show\/1594485-arthur-hayes-u-s-conflict-with-iran\/). In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy.\n\n> Loading...\n\nHayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets.\n\nHayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers [Bitcoin](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/currencies\/price\/btc-usd\/) to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve.\n\n## Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions\n[Arthur Hayes](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/persons\/arthur-hayes\/) has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening.\n\nHe has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the \\$70,000–75,000 range and then surge to \\$250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to \\$200,000.\n\n> Loading...\n\nAnother notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April.\n\n> Loading...\n\nOver the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach \\$1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions?\n\n## A controversial reputation\nArthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars.\n\nHowever, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation.\n\nAs a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict.\n\n## Are there real grounds for growth?\nBitcoin is currently trading around \\$67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly \\$2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish.\n\nIf the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.”\n\nHowever, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge.\n\nThe bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy.\n\nThis material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our [Disclaimer](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/terms-of-use\/#p10). While we adhere to strict [Editorial Integrity](https:\/\/tradersunion.com\/editorial-guidelines\/), this post may contain references to products from our partners.","meta_canonical":null}

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Meta Title	Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes: How high could BTC go?
Meta Description	Arthur Hayes links US–Iran tensions to potential Fed rate cuts and a possible new Bitcoin rally.
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Boilerpipe Text	BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a military conflict between the United States and Iran could ultimately play in Bitcoin’s favor. If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow? Money matters more than missiles Everyone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how U.S. authorities might respond . In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. Loading... Hayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets. Hayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers Bitcoin to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions Arthur Hayes has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening. He has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the $70,000–75,000 range and then surge to $250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to $200,000. Loading... Another notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April. Loading... Over the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions? A controversial reputation Arthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars. However, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation. As a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict. Are there real grounds for growth? Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly $2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish. If the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.” However, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge. The bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy. This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners.
Markdown	[![logo](https://tradersunion.com/assets/dist/main/img/tunews-logo.svg)](https://tradersunion.com/news/) Online Trading Starts Here Search Sign in with [Login](https://tradersunion.com/user/register/) [Registration](https://tradersunion.com/user/register/) EN /news/editors-picks/show/1605000-bitcoin-prediction-arthur-hayes/ AR Arabic AZ Azerbaijan CS Czech DA Danish DE Deutsche EL Greek EN English ES Spanish ET Estonian FI Finnish FR French HE Hebrew HI Hindi HU Hungarian HY Armenian IND Indonesian IT Italian JA Japan KK Kazakh KM Khmer KO Korean MS Melayu NB Norwegian NL Dutch PL Polish PT Portuguese RO Romanian ... 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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a military conflict between the United States and Iran could ultimately play in Bitcoin’s favor. If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow? ## Money matters more than missiles Everyone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how [U.S. authorities might respond](https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/1594485-arthur-hayes-u-s-conflict-with-iran/). In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. > Loading... > > #### The tweet was deleted by the author. > But we saved everything 🙂. Hayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets. Hayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers [Bitcoin](https://tradersunion.com/currencies/price/btc-usd/) to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve. ## Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions [Arthur Hayes](https://tradersunion.com/persons/arthur-hayes/) has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening. He has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the \$70,000–75,000 range and then surge to \$250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to \$200,000. > Loading... > > #### The tweet was deleted by the author. > But we saved everything 🙂. Another notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April. > Loading... > > #### The tweet was deleted by the author. > But we saved everything 🙂. Over the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach \$1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions? ## A controversial reputation Arthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars. However, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation. As a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict. ## Are there real grounds for growth? Bitcoin is currently trading around \$67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly \$2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish. If the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.” However, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge. The bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy. This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our [Disclaimer](https://tradersunion.com/terms-of-use/#p10). While we adhere to strict [Editorial Integrity](https://tradersunion.com/editorial-guidelines/), this post may contain references to products from our partners. Subscribe to TU news [![social-youtube](https://tradersunion.com/assets/src/ui-new/icons-original/social-youtube.svg)](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJAvamKrxyWSXJwXAfwgswg?sub_confirmation=1) [![social-telegram](https://tradersunion.com/assets/src/ui-new/icons-original/social-telegram.svg)](https://t.me/tu_crypto_news_en) [![social-twitter](https://tradersunion.com/assets/src/ui-new/icons-original/social-twitter.svg)](https://x.com/TU_Crypto_News) Did you like the article? Thank you for your feedback\! 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Readable Markdown	BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a military conflict between the United States and Iran could ultimately play in Bitcoin’s favor. If rising budget spending pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy, it could support the crypto market. But how realistic is this scenario, and does BTC truly have room to grow? ## Money matters more than missiles Everyone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how [U.S. authorities might respond](https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/1594485-arthur-hayes-u-s-conflict-with-iran/). In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. > Loading... Hayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets. Hayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers [Bitcoin](https://tradersunion.com/currencies/price/btc-usd/) to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve. ## Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions [Arthur Hayes](https://tradersunion.com/persons/arthur-hayes/) has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening. He has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the \$70,000–75,000 range and then surge to \$250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to \$200,000. > Loading... Another notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April. > Loading... Over the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach \$1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions? ## A controversial reputation Arthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars. However, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation. As a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict. ## Are there real grounds for growth? Bitcoin is currently trading around \$67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly \$2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish. If the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.” However, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge. The bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy. This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our [Disclaimer](https://tradersunion.com/terms-of-use/#p10). While we adhere to strict [Editorial Integrity](https://tradersunion.com/editorial-guidelines/), this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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