🕷️ Crawler Inspector

URL Lookup

Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 39 (from laksa031)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa039.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://time.com/7300628/7300628/\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://time.com/7300628/7300628/\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/time.com\/7300628\/7300628\/","crawl_time":1776197462,"first_indexed_time":1751924877,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,time!\/7300628\/7300628\/ s443","src_root_hash":"9797552172251460839","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Neither Party Has Faced an X Factor Like Elon Musk","meta_descriptions":["The world's richest man is threatening to defeat those who voted for Trump's spending bill"],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up\nhere\nto get stories like this sent to your inbox.\nAs a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man.\nWhich is\nwhy\nmulti-billionaire Elon Musk’s\nannouncement\nthis weekend that he is\nlaunching\nhis own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler.\nMusk unsuccessfully\ntried\nto prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend\nlegislation\n. Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad\nunpopularity\n. The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some\n$288 million\nin campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has\nthreatened\nto deport him\nback to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship.\nWhether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout.\nMusk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the\nde facto\ngovernors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits.\nBoth parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive.\nDemocrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and\nsiphoned\nenough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the\nanalysis\nthat the consumer-safety zealot\ncost\nAl Gore the presidency is\nless\nclear-cut than many of them think.\nSo when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the\nwildcard\nis just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So\nvolatile\nis the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets\ndestroyed\nmore value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks.\nIt’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV\/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans.\nBut that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s\nanalysis\nof his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have\nswung\nupward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor.\nMusk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue.\nNow, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor.","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to Content](https:\/\/time.com\/7300628\/7300628\/#maincontent)\n\n- Menu\n  \n  Close\n\n[Subscribe](https:\/\/time.com\/subscribe-header-time\/)\n\n- [Politics](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/politics\/)\n- [Trump Administration](https:\/\/time.com\/tag\/trump-administration\/)\n# Neither Party Has Faced an X Factor Like Elon Musk\n[ADD TIME ON GOOGLE](https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/time.com)\n\nShow me more content from TIME on Google Search\n\n![Philip Elliott](https:\/\/gcp-na-images.contentstack.com\/v3\/assets\/bltea6093859af6183b\/blt88aad278bd7ff569\/6988752fcf40a88f32c4111b\/philip-elliot-2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1%3A1)\n\nby\n\n[Philip Elliott](https:\/\/time.com\/author\/philip-elliott\/)\n\nSenior Correspondent\n\nJul 7, 2025 8:14 PM CUT\n\n![White House Coverage](https:\/\/gcp-na-images.contentstack.com\/v3\/assets\/bltea6093859af6183b\/blt4b65eeedf92cb98d\/6998c81007a30d737e77d25e\/elon-musk-donald-trump-party.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3%3A2)\n\nElon Musk speaks during a news conference with President Trump on May 30, 2025 inside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington.\n\nElon Musk speaks during a news conference with President Trump on May 30, 2025 inside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington.Tom Brenner—The Washington Post\/Getty Images\n\n![Philip Elliott](https:\/\/gcp-na-images.contentstack.com\/v3\/assets\/bltea6093859af6183b\/blt88aad278bd7ff569\/6988752fcf40a88f32c4111b\/philip-elliot-2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1%3A1)\n\nby\n\n[Philip Elliott](https:\/\/time.com\/author\/philip-elliott\/)\n\nSenior Correspondent\n\nJul 7, 2025 8:14 PM CUT\n\n*This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up* [*here*](https:\/\/cloud.newsletters.time.com\/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite \"undefined\") *to get stories like this sent to your inbox.*\n\nAs a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man.\n\nWhich is [why](https:\/\/time.com\/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk\/ \"undefined\") multi-billionaire Elon Musk’s [announcement](https:\/\/time.com\/7300367\/trump-reacts-musk-america-third-party-election-big-beautiful-bill\/ \"undefined\") this weekend that he is [launching](https:\/\/time.com\/7300282\/elon-musk-new-political-party-america-party-policies-trump-split\/ \"undefined\") his own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler.\n\nMusk unsuccessfully [tried](https:\/\/time.com\/7290854\/musk-calls-trumps-beautiful-bill-a-disgusting-abomination-white-house-disagrees\/ \"undefined\") to prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend [legislation](https:\/\/time.com\/7300177\/trump-signs-big-beautiful-bill\/ \"undefined\"). Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad [unpopularity](https:\/\/time.com\/7299256\/big-beautiful-bill-polling-takeaways\/ \"undefined\"). The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some [\\$288 million](https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2025\/01\/31\/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election\/ \"undefined\") in campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has [threatened](https:\/\/time.com\/7300082\/trump-denaturalization-deportation-musk-mamdani-us-citizenship-history-legal-explainer\/ \"undefined\") to deport himback to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship.\n\nWhether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout.\n\nAdvertisement\n\nMusk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the *de facto* governors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits.\n\nBoth parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive.\n\nAdvertisement\n\nDemocrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and [siphoned](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1992\/11\/05\/us\/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html \"undefined\") enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the [analysis](https:\/\/reason.com\/2016\/08\/03\/ralph-nader-did-not-hand-2000-election\/ \"undefined\") that the consumer-safety zealot [cost](https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/unfairly-blaming-the-third-party-candidate\/2015\/01\/30\/77965c88-a739-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html \"undefined\") Al Gore the presidency is [less](https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/reflections-on-the-2000-u-s-presidential-election\/ \"undefined\") clear-cut than many of them think.\n\nSo when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the [wildcard](https:\/\/time.com\/7213409\/elon-musk-us-government-trump\/ \"undefined\") is just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So [volatile](https:\/\/time.com\/7291599\/elon-musk-implosion-richest-man\/ \"undefined\") is the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets [destroyed](https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/musk-tesla-robotaxi-trump-tax-bill-budget-359f8ddd3739793b3c5e8ab92d191879 \"undefined\") more value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks.\n\nAdvertisement\n\nIt’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV\/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans.\n\nBut that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s [analysis](https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin \"undefined\") of his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have [swung](https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/topics\/politics\/trackers\/donald-trump-favorability?period=5yrs \"undefined\") upward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor.\n\nMusk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue.\n\nAdvertisement\n\nNow, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor.\n\n*Make sense of what matters in Washington.* [*Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter*](https:\/\/cloud.newsletters.time.com\/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite \"undefined\")*.*\n\n## Must-Reads from TIME\n- [American Men Are Set to Be Automatically Registered for the Draft. Here’s What to Know](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/09\/us-men-automatic-military-draft-change\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [How NASA Achieved the Historic Artemis II Splashdown](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/10\/artemis-ii-historic-splashdown\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [Starmer Says He's 'Fed Up' With Trump as Europe Splinters From U.S. Over Iran War](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/10\/european-leaders-criticize-trump-over-iran-war-starmer-energy-prices\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [Catholic Vance Breaks Silence on Trump's Jesus-Like Image Amid Outcry From Other Conservatives](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/14\/catholic-vance-breaks-silence-on-deleted-trump-jesus-image-amid-outcry\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [White House: Strait of Hormuz Closure 'Completely Unacceptable' Under Ceasefire](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/08\/white-house-strait-of-hormuz-closure-would-be-completely-unacceptable-under-ceasefire\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [U.S. and Iran Fail To Reach Deal on Ending War After Marathon Talks](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/11\/strait-of-hormuz-iran-peace-talks\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n\n- [American Men Are Set to Be Automatically Registered for the Draft. Here’s What to Know](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/09\/us-men-automatic-military-draft-change\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [How NASA Achieved the Historic Artemis II Splashdown](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/10\/artemis-ii-historic-splashdown\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n- [Starmer Says He's 'Fed Up' With Trump as Europe Splinters From U.S. Over Iran War](https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/10\/european-leaders-criticize-trump-over-iran-war-starmer-energy-prices\/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw)\n\nRead More\n\n## Sections\n- [Home](https:\/\/time.com\/)\n- [Politics](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/politics\/)\n- [Health](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/health\/)\n- [AI](https:\/\/time.com\/tag\/ai\/)\n- [World](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/world\/)\n- [Business](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/business\/)\n- [Science](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/science\/)\n\n- [Climate](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/climate\/)\n- [Ideas](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/ideas\/)\n- [Entertainment](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/entertainment\/)\n- [Sports](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/sports\/)\n- [Technology](https:\/\/time.com\/tag\/technology\/)\n- [Newsletters](https:\/\/time.com\/newsletters\/?source=TD_Footer_Link&utm_source_pg=web&utm_medium_pg=footer&utm_campaign_pg=footer&utm_content_pg=footer-inside-time)\n\n## More\n- [The TIME Vault](https:\/\/time.com\/vault\/)\n- [TIME Africa](https:\/\/africa.time.com\/)\n- [TIME France](https:\/\/www.timefrance.fr\/)\n- [TIME For Kids](https:\/\/www.timeforkids.com\/)\n- [TIME Futures](https:\/\/time.com\/collection\/time-co2-futures\/)\n\n- [TIME Studios](https:\/\/studios.time.com\/)\n- [Video](https:\/\/time.com\/collections\/time-video\/)\n- [Red Border](https:\/\/redborder.time.com\/)\n- [Supplied Partner Content](https:\/\/partnercontent.time.com\/)\n\n## About Us\n- [Our Mission](https:\/\/time.com\/about-time\/)\n- [Contact the Editors](mailto:feedback@time.com)\n- [Press Room](https:\/\/time.com\/section\/press-room\/)\n- [Media Kit](https:\/\/time.com\/mediakit\/)\n- [Reprints & Permissions](https:\/\/www.parsintl.com\/publication\/time)\n\n- [Masthead](https:\/\/time.com\/time-masthead\/)\n- [Careers](https:\/\/time.com\/join-time\/)\n- [Site Map](https:\/\/time.com\/sitemap.xml)\n- [Modern Slavery Statement](https:\/\/time.com\/modern-slavery-statement\/)\n\n## Your Subscriptions\n- [Subscribe](https:\/\/time.com\/subscribe-footer-time\/)\n- [Access My Digital Magazine](https:\/\/geo.ema.gs\/time_digital)\n- [Manage My Subscription](https:\/\/support.time.com\/)\n- [Global Help Center](https:\/\/support.time.com\/)\n\n- [Buy an Issue](https:\/\/magazineshop.us\/collections\/time-magazine\/)\n- [Shop the Cover Store](https:\/\/timecoverstore.com\/)\n- [Give a Gift](https:\/\/time.com\/giveagift\/)\n\n© 2026 TIME USA, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our [Terms of Service](https:\/\/legal.time.com\/terms-of-service), [Privacy Policy (Your Privacy Rights)](https:\/\/legal.time.com\/us-privacy-policy) and Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information.\n\nTIME may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.","attrs_readable_markdown":"*This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up* [*here*](https:\/\/cloud.newsletters.time.com\/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite \"undefined\") *to get stories like this sent to your inbox.*\n\nAs a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man.\n\nWhich is [why](https:\/\/time.com\/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk\/ \"undefined\") multi-billionaire Elon Musk’s [announcement](https:\/\/time.com\/7300367\/trump-reacts-musk-america-third-party-election-big-beautiful-bill\/ \"undefined\") this weekend that he is [launching](https:\/\/time.com\/7300282\/elon-musk-new-political-party-america-party-policies-trump-split\/ \"undefined\") his own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler.\n\nMusk unsuccessfully [tried](https:\/\/time.com\/7290854\/musk-calls-trumps-beautiful-bill-a-disgusting-abomination-white-house-disagrees\/ \"undefined\") to prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend [legislation](https:\/\/time.com\/7300177\/trump-signs-big-beautiful-bill\/ \"undefined\"). Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad [unpopularity](https:\/\/time.com\/7299256\/big-beautiful-bill-polling-takeaways\/ \"undefined\"). The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some [\\$288 million](https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2025\/01\/31\/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election\/ \"undefined\") in campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has [threatened](https:\/\/time.com\/7300082\/trump-denaturalization-deportation-musk-mamdani-us-citizenship-history-legal-explainer\/ \"undefined\") to deport himback to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship.\n\nWhether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout.\n\nMusk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the *de facto* governors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits.\n\nBoth parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive.\n\nDemocrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and [siphoned](https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1992\/11\/05\/us\/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html \"undefined\") enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the [analysis](https:\/\/reason.com\/2016\/08\/03\/ralph-nader-did-not-hand-2000-election\/ \"undefined\") that the consumer-safety zealot [cost](https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/unfairly-blaming-the-third-party-candidate\/2015\/01\/30\/77965c88-a739-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html \"undefined\") Al Gore the presidency is [less](https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/reflections-on-the-2000-u-s-presidential-election\/ \"undefined\") clear-cut than many of them think.\n\nSo when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the [wildcard](https:\/\/time.com\/7213409\/elon-musk-us-government-trump\/ \"undefined\") is just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So [volatile](https:\/\/time.com\/7291599\/elon-musk-implosion-richest-man\/ \"undefined\") is the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets [destroyed](https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/musk-tesla-robotaxi-trump-tax-bill-budget-359f8ddd3739793b3c5e8ab92d191879 \"undefined\") more value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks.\n\nIt’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV\/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans.\n\nBut that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s [analysis](https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin \"undefined\") of his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have [swung](https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/topics\/politics\/trackers\/donald-trump-favorability?period=5yrs \"undefined\") upward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor.\n\nMusk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue.\n\nNow, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor.","meta_canonical":null}

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Boilerpipe Text	This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox. As a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man. Which is why multi-billionaire Elon Musk’s announcement this weekend that he is launching his own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler. Musk unsuccessfully tried to prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend legislation . Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad unpopularity . The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some $288 million in campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has threatened to deport him back to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship. Whether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout. Musk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the de facto governors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits. Both parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive. Democrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and siphoned enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the analysis that the consumer-safety zealot cost Al Gore the presidency is less clear-cut than many of them think. So when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the wildcard is just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So volatile is the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets destroyed more value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks. It’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans. But that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s analysis of his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have swung upward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor. Musk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue. Now, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor.
Markdown	[Skip to Content](https://time.com/7300628/7300628/#maincontent) - Menu Close [Subscribe](https://time.com/subscribe-header-time/) - [Politics](https://time.com/section/politics/) - [Trump Administration](https://time.com/tag/trump-administration/) # Neither Party Has Faced an X Factor Like Elon Musk [ADD TIME ON GOOGLE](https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=https://time.com) Show me more content from TIME on Google Search ![Philip Elliott](https://gcp-na-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt88aad278bd7ff569/6988752fcf40a88f32c4111b/philip-elliot-2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1%3A1) by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/) Senior Correspondent Jul 7, 2025 8:14 PM CUT ![White House Coverage](https://gcp-na-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4b65eeedf92cb98d/6998c81007a30d737e77d25e/elon-musk-donald-trump-party.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3%3A2) Elon Musk speaks during a news conference with President Trump on May 30, 2025 inside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington. Elon Musk speaks during a news conference with President Trump on May 30, 2025 inside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington.Tom Brenner—The Washington Post/Getty Images ![Philip Elliott](https://gcp-na-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt88aad278bd7ff569/6988752fcf40a88f32c4111b/philip-elliot-2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1%3A1) by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/) Senior Correspondent Jul 7, 2025 8:14 PM CUT This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up [here](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite "undefined") to get stories like this sent to your inbox. As a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man. Which is [why](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk/ "undefined") multi-billionaire Elon Musk’s [announcement](https://time.com/7300367/trump-reacts-musk-america-third-party-election-big-beautiful-bill/ "undefined") this weekend that he is [launching](https://time.com/7300282/elon-musk-new-political-party-america-party-policies-trump-split/ "undefined") his own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler. Musk unsuccessfully [tried](https://time.com/7290854/musk-calls-trumps-beautiful-bill-a-disgusting-abomination-white-house-disagrees/ "undefined") to prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend [legislation](https://time.com/7300177/trump-signs-big-beautiful-bill/ "undefined"). Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad [unpopularity](https://time.com/7299256/big-beautiful-bill-polling-takeaways/ "undefined"). The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some [\$288 million](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/31/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election/ "undefined") in campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has [threatened](https://time.com/7300082/trump-denaturalization-deportation-musk-mamdani-us-citizenship-history-legal-explainer/ "undefined") to deport himback to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship. Whether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout. Advertisement Musk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the de facto governors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits. Both parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive. Advertisement Democrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and [siphoned](https://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/05/us/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html "undefined") enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the [analysis](https://reason.com/2016/08/03/ralph-nader-did-not-hand-2000-election/ "undefined") that the consumer-safety zealot [cost](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/unfairly-blaming-the-third-party-candidate/2015/01/30/77965c88-a739-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html "undefined") Al Gore the presidency is [less](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reflections-on-the-2000-u-s-presidential-election/ "undefined") clear-cut than many of them think. So when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the [wildcard](https://time.com/7213409/elon-musk-us-government-trump/ "undefined") is just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So [volatile](https://time.com/7291599/elon-musk-implosion-richest-man/ "undefined") is the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets [destroyed](https://apnews.com/article/musk-tesla-robotaxi-trump-tax-bill-budget-359f8ddd3739793b3c5e8ab92d191879 "undefined") more value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks. Advertisement It’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans. But that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s [analysis](https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin "undefined") of his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have [swung](https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?period=5yrs "undefined") upward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor. Musk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue. Advertisement Now, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor. Make sense of what matters in Washington. [Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite "undefined"). ## Must-Reads from TIME - [American Men Are Set to Be Automatically Registered for the Draft. Here’s What to Know](https://time.com/article/2026/04/09/us-men-automatic-military-draft-change/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [How NASA Achieved the Historic Artemis II Splashdown](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/artemis-ii-historic-splashdown/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [Starmer Says He's 'Fed Up' With Trump as Europe Splinters From U.S. Over Iran War](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/european-leaders-criticize-trump-over-iran-war-starmer-energy-prices/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [Catholic Vance Breaks Silence on Trump's Jesus-Like Image Amid Outcry From Other Conservatives](https://time.com/article/2026/04/14/catholic-vance-breaks-silence-on-deleted-trump-jesus-image-amid-outcry/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [White House: Strait of Hormuz Closure 'Completely Unacceptable' Under Ceasefire](https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/white-house-strait-of-hormuz-closure-would-be-completely-unacceptable-under-ceasefire/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [U.S. and Iran Fail To Reach Deal on Ending War After Marathon Talks](https://time.com/article/2026/04/11/strait-of-hormuz-iran-peace-talks/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [American Men Are Set to Be Automatically Registered for the Draft. Here’s What to Know](https://time.com/article/2026/04/09/us-men-automatic-military-draft-change/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [How NASA Achieved the Historic Artemis II Splashdown](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/artemis-ii-historic-splashdown/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) - [Starmer Says He's 'Fed Up' With Trump as Europe Splinters From U.S. Over Iran War](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/european-leaders-criticize-trump-over-iran-war-starmer-energy-prices/?utm_rs=IL_GNBazf4RR9GSs3N-N37Btw) Read More ## Sections - [Home](https://time.com/) - [Politics](https://time.com/section/politics/) - [Health](https://time.com/section/health/) - [AI](https://time.com/tag/ai/) - [World](https://time.com/section/world/) - [Business](https://time.com/section/business/) - [Science](https://time.com/section/science/) - [Climate](https://time.com/section/climate/) - [Ideas](https://time.com/section/ideas/) - [Entertainment](https://time.com/section/entertainment/) - [Sports](https://time.com/section/sports/) - [Technology](https://time.com/tag/technology/) - [Newsletters](https://time.com/newsletters/?source=TD_Footer_Link&utm_source_pg=web&utm_medium_pg=footer&utm_campaign_pg=footer&utm_content_pg=footer-inside-time) ## More - [The TIME Vault](https://time.com/vault/) - [TIME Africa](https://africa.time.com/) - [TIME France](https://www.timefrance.fr/) - [TIME For Kids](https://www.timeforkids.com/) - [TIME Futures](https://time.com/collection/time-co2-futures/) - [TIME Studios](https://studios.time.com/) - [Video](https://time.com/collections/time-video/) - [Red Border](https://redborder.time.com/) - [Supplied Partner Content](https://partnercontent.time.com/) ## About Us - [Our Mission](https://time.com/about-time/) - [Contact the Editors](mailto:feedback@time.com) - [Press Room](https://time.com/section/press-room/) - [Media Kit](https://time.com/mediakit/) - [Reprints & Permissions](https://www.parsintl.com/publication/time) - [Masthead](https://time.com/time-masthead/) - [Careers](https://time.com/join-time/) - [Site Map](https://time.com/sitemap.xml) - [Modern Slavery Statement](https://time.com/modern-slavery-statement/) ## Your Subscriptions - [Subscribe](https://time.com/subscribe-footer-time/) - [Access My Digital Magazine](https://geo.ema.gs/time_digital) - [Manage My Subscription](https://support.time.com/) - [Global Help Center](https://support.time.com/) - [Buy an Issue](https://magazineshop.us/collections/time-magazine/) - [Shop the Cover Store](https://timecoverstore.com/) - [Give a Gift](https://time.com/giveagift/) © 2026 TIME USA, LLC. 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Readable Markdown	This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up [here](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc_onsite "undefined") to get stories like this sent to your inbox. As a rule, third party candidates don’t win in the United States. Then again, a third-party bid has never had the backing of the world’s richest man. Which is [why](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk/ "undefined") multi-billionaire Elon Musk’s [announcement](https://time.com/7300367/trump-reacts-musk-america-third-party-election-big-beautiful-bill/ "undefined") this weekend that he is [launching](https://time.com/7300282/elon-musk-new-political-party-america-party-policies-trump-split/ "undefined") his own political party has pretty much every political pro in Washington gaming out how a ticket-splitting effort rooted in retribution might play out. The United States remains a winner-take-all duopoly, but it is still subject to the effects of an aggrieved spoiler. Musk unsuccessfully [tried](https://time.com/7290854/musk-calls-trumps-beautiful-bill-a-disgusting-abomination-white-house-disagrees/ "undefined") to prevent Congress from passing President Donald Trump’s legacy-defining domestic tax-and-spend [legislation](https://time.com/7300177/trump-signs-big-beautiful-bill/ "undefined"). Trump signed the bill into law on July 4, and military jets buzzed the White House to punctuate his win despite the bill’s broad [unpopularity](https://time.com/7299256/big-beautiful-bill-polling-takeaways/ "undefined"). The President was, not long ago, Musk’s biggest supporter and not coincidentally the recipient of some [\$288 million](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/31/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election/ "undefined") in campaign backing from him. Now Trump says the Tesla chief is “off the rails,”and has [threatened](https://time.com/7300082/trump-denaturalization-deportation-musk-mamdani-us-citizenship-history-legal-explainer/ "undefined") to deport himback to his native South Africa despite his U.S. citizenship. Whether a result of his combative personality, almost bottomless wealth, or fury at being tossed aside, Musk has chosen not to roll over, as so many spurned Trump allies have, and has instead hit back. Now, as the world’s richest man goes up against its most powerful, the question is how much damage Musk’s “America Party” will inflict on Trump’s GOP. Anxious pols are watching for the fallout. Musk made no secret of his contempt for the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and all who supported it, promising to primary and defeat those who voted for it “if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.” But his threats failed, the bill passed and now Musk’s search for retribution will test American politics in new ways. The deep-pocketed upper crust of U.S. donors have long enjoyed outsized influence since super PACs became the de facto governors for cashflow in campaigns. But Musk, the single biggest player in the billionaire-consultant-politician complex, could set new limits. Both parties’ campaign chiefs are trying to figure out the impact of Musk’s new independence. The American two-party system tends to shrug off third-party disruptors, but they are hard to control. Republicans worry that Musk will make good on his promise to fund primary challengers against each and every one of them who voted to give Trump a win. They also worry he could run third-party candidates in races where incumbents survive. Democrats, meanwhile, are all too aware of the unpredictability of a third-party effort. In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate and [siphoned](https://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/05/us/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html "undefined") enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to make the patrician insider a one-termer. Perot ‘92 collected about one out of every five votes that year, but he won zero electoral votes, just the unspoken thanks from Bill Clinton’s team in Little Rock. In fact, the last time a candidate who was neither a Republican nor a Democrat won national electoral votes was 1968, and that was avowed segregationist George Wallace. Democrats still bemoan Ralph Nader’s presence on ballots in 2000, although the [analysis](https://reason.com/2016/08/03/ralph-nader-did-not-hand-2000-election/ "undefined") that the consumer-safety zealot [cost](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/unfairly-blaming-the-third-party-candidate/2015/01/30/77965c88-a739-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html "undefined") Al Gore the presidency is [less](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reflections-on-the-2000-u-s-presidential-election/ "undefined") clear-cut than many of them think. So when it comes to the impact Musk will have on next year’s midterms, or even on the 2028 presidential race, the [wildcard](https://time.com/7213409/elon-musk-us-government-trump/ "undefined") is just too wild to predict. Musk’s resources are unrivaled. His temperament is entirely mercurial. His politics, inscrutable. And his beef with Trump—and those who empowered him to balloon the national debt while scrapping subsidies for Musk’s EV empire—is for now at least limitless. So [volatile](https://time.com/7291599/elon-musk-implosion-richest-man/ "undefined") is the situation that, in one day of feud between Trump and Musk, the markets [destroyed](https://apnews.com/article/musk-tesla-robotaxi-trump-tax-bill-budget-359f8ddd3739793b3c5e8ab92d191879 "undefined") more value for Tesla than the entire value of Starbucks. It’s quite a turn of fortune for a man who until recently wandered through the federal bureaucracy with a red Sharpie and zeroed-out budgets, fired career professionals, and slashed programs that stood to end HIV/AIDS and malaria in Africa. He had extraordinary access to agency operations, line-by-line spending plans, and databases that held some of the most sensitive information on Americans. But that didn’t make Musk popular, and for Trump, that made him a liability. In January 2024, Musk was about a 6 point positive, according to Nate Silver’s [analysis](https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin "undefined") of his favorability in polls, but he has sunk to negative 18 points today. By contrast, YouGov’s polling shows Trump’s unfavorables have [swung](https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?period=5yrs "undefined") upward by just 2 points in the same window. Despite his quarter-billion in patronage of Trump last year, Musk had become a fast-sinking anchor. Musk was also seen as a rival power center in Washington. His neophyte team raided the bureaucracy and summarily killed time-tested programs. The tech bros brought a budgetary scythe to the party. After hours, they hung out at a private club near the White House and joked about how they had upset the federal apple cart. And Republicans in Congress simply stepped aside to let the slashing continue. Now, Republicans are going to have to contend with Musk’s well-financed vengeance, unpredictable as it is. And they are rightly terrified because neither party has faced such an unpredictable X factor.
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