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Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 68 (from laksa062)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa068.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://theloop.ecpr.eu/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan/\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://theloop.ecpr.eu/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan/\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan\/","crawl_time":1776349236,"first_indexed_time":1739178308,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"eu,ecpr!theloop,\/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan\/ s443","src_root_hash":"3312326549297929468","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan","meta_descriptions":["Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s same-sex marriage ban, public opinion remains largely unmoved, writes Robert Nordström"],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved.\nRobert Nordström\npresents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society\nOn 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on\nsame-sex marriage was\nunconstitutional\n. This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality.\nHowever, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through\nPureSpectrum\n, I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling.\nLGBTQ rights in Japan\nJapan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a\nPew Research report\nshowed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly\nstaunchly opposed\nto legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage.\nActivists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage\nOn\nValentine's Day 2019\n, six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to\nMarriage For All Japan\n, the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic\nObergefell versus Hodges\ndecision in the United States in 2015.\nThe 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court\nThe recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the\nOsaka local court in 2022\n, other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions.\nThe most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions\nPublic and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having\nexpressed 'sympathy'\nfor the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling.\nDaily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024\nSource:\nGoogle Trends\nHowever, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero.\nThe ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect\nWe must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by\nMarriage for All Japan\n. This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes.\nDaily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling\nSource: Original survey conducted by the author through\nPureSpectrum\n. The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals.\nThe future of same-sex marriage in Japan\nThis recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by\nAndrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay\nand\nMargaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck\nshowed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run.\nJudicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As\nseveral cases\nare currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system.\nThis article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of\nThe Loop\n.","attrs_markdown":"[![ECPR Blog - The Loop Logo - White](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/ECPR-Blog-The-Loop-Logo-White.svg)](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/)\n\n- [About Us](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/about-us\/)\n  - [The Loop Annual Reports](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/the-loop-annual-reports)\n- [Write for The Loop](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/write-for-the-loop\/)\n  - [Contribute](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/write-for-the-loop\/)\n  - [Author Guidelines](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/write-for-the-loop\/author-guidelines\/)\n- [Our Series](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan\/)\n  - [Autocracies with Adjectives](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%E2%99%9F)\n  - [Constraints on Academic Freedom](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%E2%9B%93)\n  - [Democratic Transformations](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%8E%AD)\n  - [EU Enlargement Dilemmas](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%A7%AD)\n  - [Future of Populism](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%94%AE)\n  - [Gendering Democracy](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%8C%88)\n  - [Illiberal Wave](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%8C%8A)\n  - [Measuring Human Rights](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%93%90)\n  - [Nuclear Politics Paradox](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%E2%98%A2%EF%B8%8F)\n  - [Representative Disconnect](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=+%F0%9F%8E%88)\n  - [Rescuing Democracy](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%92%8A)\n  - [Science of Democracy](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?s=%F0%9F%A6%8B)\n\n[All Articles](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/category\/articles\/), [East Asian Politics](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/category\/asian-politics\/east-asian-politics\/), [Featured](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/category\/articles\/featured\/), [LGBTQ+](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/category\/articles\/democracy\/political-representation\/lgbti\/)\n\n# Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan\n\nDespite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. **Robert Nordström** presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society\n\nOn 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on [same-sex marriage was *unconstitutional*](https:\/\/english.kyodonews.net\/news\/2024\/12\/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park&words=). This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality.\n\nHowever, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through [PureSpectrum](https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/), I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling.\n\n## LGBTQ rights in Japan\nJapan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a [Pew Research report](https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2023\/11\/27\/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage\/) showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly [staunchly opposed](https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15472374) to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage.\n\n> Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage\n\nOn [Valentine's Day 2019](https:\/\/mainichi.jp\/english\/articles\/20190204\/p2a\/00m\/0na\/022000c), six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to [Marriage For All Japan](https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/en\/marriage-equality\/why\/), the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic [Obergefell versus Hodges](https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Obergefell_v._Hodges) decision in the United States in 2015.\n\n## The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court\nThe recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the [Osaka local court in 2022](https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-61670667), other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions.\n\n> The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions\n\nPublic and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having [expressed 'sympathy'](https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15553727) for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling.\n\n#### Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024\n![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png)\n\nSource: [Google Trends](https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=JP&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A&hl=fi)\n\nHowever, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero.\n\n> The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect\n\nWe must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by [Marriage for All Japan](https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf). This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes.\n\n#### Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling\n![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png)\n\nSource: Original survey conducted by the author through [PureSpectrum](https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/). The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals.\n## The future of same-sex marriage in Japan\nThis recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by [Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay](https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/1065912915621175) and [Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck](https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0956797617709594) showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run.\n\nJudicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As [several cases](https:\/\/news.yahoo.co.jp\/articles\/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e) are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system.\n\nThis article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of *The Loop*.\n\n![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/ECPR-tag-icon.svg)\n\n[equal marriage](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/equal-marriage\/)[Japan](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/japan\/)[judicial politics](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/judicial-politics\/)[LGBTQ rights](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/lgbtq-rights\/)[public opinion](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/public-opinion\/)[same-sex marriage](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/tag\/same-sex-marriage-2\/)\n\n## Author\n![photograph of Robert Nordström](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-headshot-800x800-1.png)\n\nRobert Nordström\n\nResearch Associate, School of Political Science and Economics (SPSE), Waseda University\n\nRobert specialises in gender, LGBTQ+ issues, local politics, electoral systems, and public opinion.\n\nHis research examines how uncontested and uncompetitive elections influence democratic quality in Japan, focusing on legislators’ behaviour, fiscal outcomes, and voter trust.\n\nRobert also explores how gender disparities shape the content and priorities of Japanese local politics and the societal and political dynamics surrounding LGBTQ+ rights, including same-sex marriage.\n\nThrough his work, he aims to provide new insights into the intersections of gender, representation, and democracy in Japan.\n\n[Personal website](https:\/\/robertnordstrom.jp\/)\n\n[@rnords.bsky.social](https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/rnords.bsky.social)\n\n[LinkedIn profile](https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/robert-nordstr%C3%B6m-rn1992\/)\n\n[Read more articles by this author](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/author\/r_nordstrom\/)\n\n## Share Article\n## Republish Article\nWe believe in the free flow of information Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.\n\nRepublish Article\n\n[![Creative Commons License](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/plugins\/republication-tracker-tool\/assets\/img\/creative-commons-sharing.png)](http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/)\n\n## Comments\n### Leave a Comment\n\n## Recently Published\n[Why Europe’s support for war on Iran is backfiring](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/why-europes-support-for-war-on-iran-will-backfire\/)\n\nEurope’s support for the US-Israeli war on Iran, in the hope of securing American backing for Ukraine, is a strategic mistake, argues Shamsoddin Shariati. Rather than buying goodwill in Washington, European leaders are undermining their own security, credibility, and strategic autonomy\n\n[Read more](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/why-europes-support-for-war-on-iran-will-backfire\/)\n\nApril 16, 2026\n\n[🔮 Explaining Tisza’s Hungarian breakthrough](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/explaining-tiszas-hungarian-breakthrough\/)\n\nEndre Borbáth argues that Tisza’s breakthrough in Hungary was not simply the product of anti-incumbent anger or Péter Magyar’s personal appeal. It rested on a combination of cross-cutting grievances, participatory organisation, and intensive campaigning that turned a new party into a credible vehicle for regime change\n\n[Read more](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/explaining-tiszas-hungarian-breakthrough\/)\n\nApril 16, 2026\n\n[Who has scooped the 2025 Best Blog prize?](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/who-has-scooped-the-2025-best-blog-prize\/)\n\nLast week we awarded our annual £500 prize for the best Loop blog piece in the previous calendar year, as judged by an independent jury. Here, Managing Editor Kate Hawkins presents the longlisted pieces — and revels who has taken this year's top spot\n\n[Read more](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/who-has-scooped-the-2025-best-blog-prize\/)\n\nApril 15, 2026\n\n# The Loop\nCutting-edge analysis showcasing the work of the political science discipline at its best.\n\n[Read more](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/about-us\/)\n\nTHE EUROPEAN CONSORTIUM FOR POLITICAL RESEARCH\n\nAdvancing Political Science\n\n[Join our community](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/Membership\/MembershipBenefits)\n\nThe Loop\n\n- [About Us](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/about-us\/)\n- [Write for The Loop](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/write-for-the-loop\/)\n- [Privacy Notice](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/Privacy)\n- [Accessibility](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/accessibility)\n\nECPR\n\n- [Membership Benefits](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/Membership\/MembershipBenefits)\n- [Groups and Networks](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/groups)\n\n[![ECPR\\_Emotive\\_Strapline\\_White\\_Logo](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/ECPR_Emotive_Strapline_White_Logo.svg)](https:\/\/ecpr.eu\/)\n\n© 2026 European Consortium for Political Research. The ECPR is a charitable incorporated organisation (CIO) number 1167403 ECPR, Harbour House, 6-8 Hythe Quay, Colchester, CO2 8JF, United Kingdom.\n\nWe use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.\n\nOk\n\n1\n\nX\n\n## Republish this article\n[![Creative Commons License](https:\/\/i.creativecommons.org\/l\/by-nd\/4.0\/88x31.png)](http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/)\n\nThis work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License](http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/).\n\n# Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan\nby Robert Nordström, The Loop   \nFebruary 10, 2025\n\n\\<h1\\>Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan\\<\/h1\\> \\<p class=\"byline\"\\>by Robert Nordström, The Loop \\<br\\>February 10, 2025\\<\/p\\> \\<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"\\>Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. \\<strong\\>Robert Nordström\\<\/strong\\> presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society\\<\/p\\> \\<p\\>On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on \\<a href=\"https:\/\/english.kyodonews.net\/news\/2024\/12\/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park\\&words=\"\\>same-sex marriage was \\<em\\>unconstitutional\\<\/em\\>\\<\/a\\>. This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality.\\<\/p\\> \\<p\\>However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/\"\\>PureSpectrum\\<\/a\\>, I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling.\\<\/p\\> \\<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-lgbtq-rights-in-japan\"\\>LGBTQ rights in Japan\\<\/h2\\> \\<p\\>Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2023\/11\/27\/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage\/\"\\>Pew Research report\\<\/a\\> showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15472374\"\\>staunchly opposed\\<\/a\\> to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage.\\<\/p\\> \\<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"\\> \\<p\\>Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage\\<\/p\\> \\<\/blockquote\\> \\<p\\>On \\<a href=\"https:\/\/mainichi.jp\/english\/articles\/20190204\/p2a\/00m\/0na\/022000c\"\\>Valentine's Day 2019\\<\/a\\>, six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/en\/marriage-equality\/why\/\"\\>Marriage For All Japan\\<\/a\\>, the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic \\<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Obergefell\\_v.\\_Hodges\"\\>Obergefell versus Hodges\\<\/a\\> decision in the United States in 2015.\\<\/p\\> \\<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-13-december-ruling-in-fukuoka-high-court\"\\>The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court\\<\/h2\\> \\<p\\>The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-61670667\"\\>Osaka local court in 2022\\<\/a\\>, other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions.\\<\/p\\> \\<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"\\> \\<p\\>The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions\\<\/p\\> \\<\/blockquote\\> \\<p\\>Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15553727\"\\>expressed 'sympathy'\\<\/a\\> for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling.\\<\/p\\> \\<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-daily-google-trends-data-for-same-sex-marriage-searches-in-japan-during-2024\"\\>Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024\\<\/h4\\> \\<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"\\>\\<img src=\"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20807\"\\>\\<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"\\>Source: \\<a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%201-m\\&geo=JP\\&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A\\&hl=fi\"\\>Google Trends\\<\/a\\>\\<\/figcaption\\>\\<\/figure\\> \\<p\\>However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero.\\<\/p\\> \\<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"\\> \\<p\\>The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect\\<\/p\\> \\<\/blockquote\\> \\<p\\>We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf\"\\>Marriage for All Japan\\<\/a\\>. This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes.\\<\/p\\> \\<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-daily-approval-for-same-sex-marriage-in-kyushu-region-before-and-after-the-13-december-high-court-ruling\"\\>Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling\\<\/h4\\> \\<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"\\>\\<img src=\"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20808\"\\>\\<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"\\>Source: Original survey conducted by the author through \\<a href=\"https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/\"\\>PureSpectrum\\<\/a\\>. The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals.\\<\/figcaption\\>\\<\/figure\\> \\<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-future-of-same-sex-marriage-in-japan\"\\>The future of same-sex marriage in Japan\\<\/h2\\> \\<p\\>This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by \\<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/1065912915621175\"\\>Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay\\<\/a\\> and \\<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0956797617709594\"\\>Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck\\<\/a\\> showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run.\\<\/p\\> \\<p\\>Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As \\<a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.co.jp\/articles\/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e\"\\>several cases\\<\/a\\> are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system.\\<\/p\\> \\<p\\>This \\<a target=\"\\_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan\/\"\\>article\\<\/a\\> was originally published at \\<a target=\"\\_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\"\\>The Loop\\<\/a\\> and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.\\<img id=\"republication-tracker-tool-source\" src=\"https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/?republication-pixel=true\\&post=20806\\&ga=\" style=\"max-width:200px\"\\>\\<\/p\\>\n\nCopy to Clipboard","attrs_readable_markdown":"Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. **Robert Nordström** presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on [same-sex marriage was *unconstitutional*](https:\/\/english.kyodonews.net\/news\/2024\/12\/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park&words=). This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality. However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through [PureSpectrum](https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/), I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling. LGBTQ rights in Japan Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a [Pew Research report](https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2023\/11\/27\/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage\/) showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly [staunchly opposed](https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15472374) to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage. Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage On [Valentine's Day 2019](https:\/\/mainichi.jp\/english\/articles\/20190204\/p2a\/00m\/0na\/022000c), six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to [Marriage For All Japan](https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/en\/marriage-equality\/why\/), the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic [Obergefell versus Hodges](https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Obergefell_v._Hodges) decision in the United States in 2015. The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the [Osaka local court in 2022](https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-61670667), other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having [expressed 'sympathy'](https:\/\/www.asahi.com\/ajw\/articles\/15553727) for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling. Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024 ![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png) Source: [Google Trends](https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=JP&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A&hl=fi) However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by [Marriage for All Japan](https:\/\/www.marriageforall.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf). This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes. Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling ![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png) Source: Original survey conducted by the author through [PureSpectrum](https:\/\/www.purespectrum.com\/). The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals. The future of same-sex marriage in Japan This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by [Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay](https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/1065912915621175) and [Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck](https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0956797617709594) showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run. Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As [several cases](https:\/\/news.yahoo.co.jp\/articles\/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e) are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system.\n\nThis article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of *The Loop*.\n\n![](https:\/\/theloop.ecpr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/ECPR-tag-icon.svg)","meta_canonical":null}

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Boilerpipe Text	Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. Robert Nordström presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional . This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality. However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through PureSpectrum , I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling. LGBTQ rights in Japan Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a Pew Research report showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly staunchly opposed to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage. Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage On Valentine's Day 2019 , six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to Marriage For All Japan , the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic Obergefell versus Hodges decision in the United States in 2015. The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the Osaka local court in 2022 , other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having expressed 'sympathy' for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling. Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024 Source: Google Trends However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by Marriage for All Japan . This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes. Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling Source: Original survey conducted by the author through PureSpectrum . The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals. The future of same-sex marriage in Japan This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay and Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run. Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As several cases are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system. This article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of The Loop .
Markdown	[![ECPR Blog - The Loop Logo - White](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECPR-Blog-The-Loop-Logo-White.svg)](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/) - [About Us](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/about-us/) - [The Loop Annual Reports](https://ecpr.eu/the-loop-annual-reports) - [Write for The Loop](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/write-for-the-loop/) - [Contribute](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/write-for-the-loop/) - [Author Guidelines](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/write-for-the-loop/author-guidelines/) - [Our Series](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan/) - [Autocracies with Adjectives](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%E2%99%9F) - [Constraints on Academic Freedom](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%E2%9B%93) - [Democratic Transformations](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%8E%AD) - [EU Enlargement Dilemmas](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%A7%AD) - [Future of Populism](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%94%AE) - [Gendering Democracy](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%8C%88) - [Illiberal Wave](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%8C%8A) - [Measuring Human Rights](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%93%90) - [Nuclear Politics Paradox](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%E2%98%A2%EF%B8%8F) - [Representative Disconnect](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=+%F0%9F%8E%88) - [Rescuing Democracy](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%92%8A) - [Science of Democracy](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?s=%F0%9F%A6%8B) [All Articles](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/category/articles/), [East Asian Politics](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/category/asian-politics/east-asian-politics/), [Featured](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/category/articles/featured/), [LGBTQ+](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/category/articles/democracy/political-representation/lgbti/) # Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. Robert Nordström presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on [same-sex marriage was unconstitutional](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/12/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park&words=). This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality. However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through [PureSpectrum](https://www.purespectrum.com/), I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling. ## LGBTQ rights in Japan Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a [Pew Research report](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/27/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage/) showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly [staunchly opposed](https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15472374) to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage. > Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage On [Valentine's Day 2019](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190204/p2a/00m/0na/022000c), six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to [Marriage For All Japan](https://www.marriageforall.jp/en/marriage-equality/why/), the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic [Obergefell versus Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges) decision in the United States in 2015. ## The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the [Osaka local court in 2022](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61670667), other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions. > The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having [expressed 'sympathy'](https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15553727) for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling. #### Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024 ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png) Source: [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=JP&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A&hl=fi) However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero. > The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by [Marriage for All Japan](https://www.marriageforall.jp/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf). This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes. #### Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png) Source: Original survey conducted by the author through [PureSpectrum](https://www.purespectrum.com/). The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals. ## The future of same-sex marriage in Japan This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by [Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1065912915621175) and [Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617709594) showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run. Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As [several cases](https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e) are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system. This article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of The Loop. ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ECPR-tag-icon.svg) [equal marriage](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/equal-marriage/)[Japan](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/japan/)[judicial politics](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/judicial-politics/)[LGBTQ rights](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/lgbtq-rights/)[public opinion](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/public-opinion/)[same-sex marriage](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tag/same-sex-marriage-2/) ## Author ![photograph of Robert Nordström](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-headshot-800x800-1.png) Robert Nordström Research Associate, School of Political Science and Economics (SPSE), Waseda University Robert specialises in gender, LGBTQ+ issues, local politics, electoral systems, and public opinion. His research examines how uncontested and uncompetitive elections influence democratic quality in Japan, focusing on legislators’ behaviour, fiscal outcomes, and voter trust. Robert also explores how gender disparities shape the content and priorities of Japanese local politics and the societal and political dynamics surrounding LGBTQ+ rights, including same-sex marriage. Through his work, he aims to provide new insights into the intersections of gender, representation, and democracy in Japan. [Personal website](https://robertnordstrom.jp/) [@rnords.bsky.social](https://bsky.app/profile/rnords.bsky.social) [LinkedIn profile](https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-nordstr%C3%B6m-rn1992/) [Read more articles by this author](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/author/r_nordstrom/) ## Share Article ## Republish Article We believe in the free flow of information Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. 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Ok 1 X ## Republish this article [![Creative Commons License](https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nd/4.0/88x31.png)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/) This work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/). # Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan by Robert Nordström, The Loop February 10, 2025 \<h1\>Limited shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage in Japan\</h1\> \<p class="byline"\>by Robert Nordström, The Loop \<br\>February 10, 2025\</p\> \<p class="has-medium-font-size"\>Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. \<strong\>Robert Nordström\</strong\> presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society\</p\> \<p\>On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on \<a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/12/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park\&words="\>same-sex marriage was \<em\>unconstitutional\</em\>\</a\>. This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality.\</p\> \<p\>However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through \<a href="https://www.purespectrum.com/"\>PureSpectrum\</a\>, I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling.\</p\> \<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-lgbtq-rights-in-japan"\>LGBTQ rights in Japan\</h2\> \<p\>Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a \<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/27/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage/"\>Pew Research report\</a\> showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly \<a href="https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15472374"\>staunchly opposed\</a\> to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage.\</p\> \<blockquote class="wp-block-quote"\> \<p\>Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage\</p\> \</blockquote\> \<p\>On \<a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190204/p2a/00m/0na/022000c"\>Valentine's Day 2019\</a\>, six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to \<a href="https://www.marriageforall.jp/en/marriage-equality/why/"\>Marriage For All Japan\</a\>, the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic \<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell\_v.\_Hodges"\>Obergefell versus Hodges\</a\> decision in the United States in 2015.\</p\> \<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-13-december-ruling-in-fukuoka-high-court"\>The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court\</h2\> \<p\>The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the \<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61670667"\>Osaka local court in 2022\</a\>, other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions.\</p\> \<blockquote class="wp-block-quote"\> \<p\>The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions\</p\> \</blockquote\> \<p\>Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having \<a href="https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15553727"\>expressed 'sympathy'\</a\> for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling.\</p\> \<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-daily-google-trends-data-for-same-sex-marriage-searches-in-japan-during-2024"\>Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024\</h4\> \<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"\>\<img src="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20807"\>\<figcaption class="wp-element-caption"\>Source: \<a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m\&geo=JP\&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A\&hl=fi"\>Google Trends\</a\>\</figcaption\>\</figure\> \<p\>However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero.\</p\> \<blockquote class="wp-block-quote"\> \<p\>The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect\</p\> \</blockquote\> \<p\>We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by \<a href="https://www.marriageforall.jp/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf"\>Marriage for All Japan\</a\>. This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes.\</p\> \<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-daily-approval-for-same-sex-marriage-in-kyushu-region-before-and-after-the-13-december-high-court-ruling"\>Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling\</h4\> \<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"\>\<img src="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20808"\>\<figcaption class="wp-element-caption"\>Source: Original survey conducted by the author through \<a href="https://www.purespectrum.com/"\>PureSpectrum\</a\>. The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals.\</figcaption\>\</figure\> \<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-future-of-same-sex-marriage-in-japan"\>The future of same-sex marriage in Japan\</h2\> \<p\>This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by \<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1065912915621175"\>Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay\</a\> and \<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617709594"\>Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck\</a\> showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run.\</p\> \<p\>Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As \<a href="https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e"\>several cases\</a\> are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system.\</p\> \<p\>This \<a target="\_blank" href="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/limited-shift-in-public-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-in-japan/"\>article\</a\> was originally published at \<a target="\_blank" href="https://theloop.ecpr.eu"\>The Loop\</a\> and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.\<img id="republication-tracker-tool-source" src="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?republication-pixel=true\&post=20806\&ga=" style="max-width:200px"\>\</p\> Copy to Clipboard
Readable Markdown	Despite a series of court rulings challenging Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion remains largely unmoved. Robert Nordström presents evidence from new survey data which reveals the fleeting influence of judicial action in advancing LGBTQ rights in this conservative society On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka High Court ruled that Japan’s ban on [same-sex marriage was unconstitutional](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/12/61f3ab4f1d92-update1-japan-high-court-rules-same-sex-marriage-ban-unconstitutional.html?phrase=park&words=). This was the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in support of same-sex marriage in the traditional and conservative East Asian country. Thus, the country seems to have taken another step towards marriage equality. However, the ruling had little effect on Japanese attitudes towards same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I conducted in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks before and after the ruling. Through [PureSpectrum](https://www.purespectrum.com/), I asked 1,331 Japanese respondents, half before the ruling and half after, whether the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their support for introducing same-sex marriage. The results show that a positive effect on same-sex marriage lasted only a day after the ruling. LGBTQ rights in Japan Japan is currently the only G7 country that does not legally recognise same-sex couples. Recently, a [Pew Research report](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/27/how-people-around-the-world-view-same-sex-marriage/) showed that public opinion in Japan has become much more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is one of the most accommodating countries in the region. Nonetheless, Japan's government, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly [staunchly opposed](https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15472374) to legislating on this issue. To pursue marriage equality, activists have started using different methods, including judicial action, to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage. Activists in Japan have started taking judicial action to achieve their goal of legalising same-sex marriage On [Valentine's Day 2019](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190204/p2a/00m/0na/022000c), six same-sex couples from all around the country filed separate lawsuits against the Japanese government. According to [Marriage For All Japan](https://www.marriageforall.jp/en/marriage-equality/why/), the interest organisation coordinating the legal battle for same-sex marriage, the current ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality guaranteed by the Japanese constitution. Japan is not the first country in which activists have resorted to judicial courses of action to achieve marriage equality. Take, for example, the historic [Obergefell versus Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges) decision in the United States in 2015. The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka High Court The recent ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling among these cases so far. With the exception of the ruling by the [Osaka local court in 2022](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61670667), other courts have ruled that the current system is unconstitutional. Thus, we can consider the trend in court rulings to be the judicial system taking a consistent stance on the need for stronger legal protections for same-sex couples. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one yet. It found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Previous rulings had found only violations of one or two of the constitutional provisions. The most recent High Court ruling in Fukuoka found the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional under three constitutional provisions Public and media interest in this ruling was high. Major Japanese media websites such as YahooNews.jp and NHK News reported on the decision as their top story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having [expressed 'sympathy'](https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15553727) for the plight of same-sex couples after the ruling. The Google Trends data below shows that every time High Courts declare their verdicts on this issue, the rulings gather considerable attention, including the most recent Fukuoka decision. The news was widely covered by local broadcasting stations. We can therefore assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or at least a large proportion of) Japanese adults have heard about the ruling. Daily Google Trends data for 'same-sex marriage' searches in Japan during 2024 ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-1-1024x1024.png) Source: [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=JP&q=%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E5%A9%9A&hl=fi) However, the ruling's effect on public approval of same-sex marriage was much less impressive. In the initial hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage increased to 40% from 26% before the ruling. This effect had already dissipated within 24 hours of the verdict. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling. As the graph below shows, even one day later, the effect was close to zero. The ruling seemed to affect public opinion regarding same-sex marriage only in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting effect We must thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting effect on public opinion. Knowledge about the ruling also seemed to fade quickly after the verdict. Many respondents were unaware the ruling had even occurred just a few days after the event. The number of respondents who were at least somewhat supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% compared with 72.6% in a 2019 poll conducted by [Marriage for All Japan](https://www.marriageforall.jp/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200215preliminaryreportishidaiwamotokamano.pdf). This shows that previous rulings have also failed to produce long-term changes in public attitudes. Daily approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu region before and after the 13 December High Court ruling ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Nordstrom-fig-2-1024x1024.png) Source: Original survey conducted by the author through [PureSpectrum](https://www.purespectrum.com/). The survey sampled 100 people per day from 6–9 December. The graph shows daily means and 95% confidence intervals. The future of same-sex marriage in Japan This recent episode in Japan is at odds with previous research on public opinion. Studies by [Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1065912915621175) and [Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617709594) showed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about changes in the level of tolerance towards sexual minorities. The evidence from Japan shows that judicial action alone seems insufficient for influencing public opinion, especially in the long run. Judicial rulings do sometimes trigger shifts in public attitudes toward social policies. However, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little reason to be optimistic. They must recognise that winning the ongoing legal battles may not influence broader societal attitudinal shifts. It is possible, of course, that knowledge of the court rulings has not yet reached enough of the populace to have a noticeable effect. It may also be the case that people do not yet see or understand the purpose of the lawsuits. As [several cases](https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b7703329e34659df9e60f04a53bc7d6c4735223e) are currently being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court, we should continue to monitor the system. This article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of The Loop. ![](https://theloop.ecpr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ECPR-tag-icon.svg)
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