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URLhttps://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/impact-brexit-uk-firms
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Meta TitleThe Impact of Brexit on UK Firms | Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
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We use a major new survey of UK firms, the Decision Maker Panel, to assess the impact of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. We identify three key results. First, the UK's decision to leave the EU has generated a large, broad and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. Second, anticipation of Brexit is estimated to have gradually reduced investment by about 11% over the three years following the June 2016 vote. This fall in investment took longer to occur than predicted at the time of the referendum, suggesting that the size and persistence of this uncertainty may have delayed firms' response to the Brexit vote. Finally, the Brexit process is estimated to have reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5% over the three years after the referendum. Much of this drop is from negative within-firm effects, in part because firms are committing several hours per week of top-management time to Brexit planning. We also find evidence for smaller negative between-firm effects as more productive, internationally exposed, firms have been more negatively impacted than less productive domestic firms.
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We identify three key results. First, the UK's decision to leave the EU has generated a large, broad and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. Second, anticipation of Brexit is estimated to have gradually reduced investment by about 11% over the three years following the June 2016 vote. This fall in investment took longer to occur than predicted at the time of the referendum, suggesting that the size and persistence of this uncertainty may have delayed firms' response to the Brexit vote. Finally, the Brexit process is estimated to have reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5% over the three years after the referendum. Much of this drop is from negative within-firm effects, in part because firms are committing several hours per week of top-management time to Brexit planning. We also find evidence for smaller negative between-firm effects as more productive, internationally exposed, firms have been more negatively impacted than less productive domestic firms. Author(s) Nicholas Bloom Philip Bunn Scarlet Chen Paul Mizen Pawel Smietanka Gregory Thwaites Publication Date August, 2019 [View this Working Paper](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YoRDGKnnWFbARScPIgKrW-w9G2IKuKhp/view?usp=drivesdk) ## Related Topics - [Working Paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper) - [Money and Finance](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/money-and-finance) - [Regulation and Competition](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/regulation-and-competition) - [Work](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/work) ## More Publications - Publication ## [Do Energy Rebate Programs Encourage Conservation?](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/do-energy-rebate-programs-encourage-conservation) [Policy Brief](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief) - Publication ## [Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-In-Differences Models](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/identification-and-inference-nonlinear-difference-differences-models) [Working Paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper) - Publication ## [A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/theory-economic-coercion-and-fragmentation) [Working Paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper) , [Global Development and Trade](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/global-development-and-trade), [Money and Finance](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/money-and-finance) [See All Publications](https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications) Back to Top [Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)](https://siepr.stanford.edu/) [Web Login](https://siepr.stanford.edu/saml/login?destination=/publications/working-paper/impact-brexit-uk-firms) ## Address John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building 366 Galvez Street Stanford, CA 94305-6015 United States - [General Information](https://siepr.stanford.edu/about/contact-information) - [Campus Map](https://campus-map.stanford.edu/?id=08-280&lat=37.4291709&lng=-122.16549383&zoom=17&srch=John%20A.%20and%20Cynthia%20Fry%20Gunn%20Building) - [Phone: (650) 497-1712](tel:6504971712) - [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/siepr_stanford/) - [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/stanford-institute-for-economic-policy-research/) - [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/siepr.bsky.social) - [X](https://twitter.com/SIEPR) - [Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/user/SIEPRatStanford) ## Resources for - [Policymakers](https://siepr.stanford.edu/resources-policymakers) - [Journalists](https://siepr.stanford.edu/resources-journalists) - [Students](https://siepr.stanford.edu/resources-students) - [SIEPR Faculty Portal](https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/siepr-faculty-portal) - [SIEPR Staff Portal](https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/siepr-staff-portal) ## Get Involved - [Join SIEPR's digital mailing list](https://eepurl.com/h-K4PL) - [Make a gift](https://give.stanford.edu/fund/?kwoDCFilter=KDC-4C8VBU9&kwoDCPreselect=KDC-4C8VBU9) - [Follow us on social media](https://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr-social-connect-us) [Stanford University (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/) - [Stanford Home (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/) - [Maps & Directions (link is external)](https://visit.stanford.edu/basics/) - [Search Stanford (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/search/) - [Emergency Info (link is external)](https://emergency.stanford.edu/) - [Terms of Use (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/site/terms/ "Terms of use for sites") - [Privacy (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/site/privacy/ "Privacy and cookie policy") - [Copyright (link is external)](https://uit.stanford.edu/security/copyright-infringement "Report alleged copyright infringement") - [Trademarks (link is external)](https://adminguide.stanford.edu/chapter-1/subchapter-5/policy-1-5-4 "Ownership and use of Stanford trademarks and images") - [Non-Discrimination (link is external)](https://non-discrimination.stanford.edu/ "Non-discrimination policy") - [Accessibility (link is external)](https://www.stanford.edu/site/accessibility "Report web accessibility issues") © Stanford University. 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Readable Markdown
We use a major new survey of UK firms, the Decision Maker Panel, to assess the impact of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. We identify three key results. First, the UK's decision to leave the EU has generated a large, broad and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. Second, anticipation of Brexit is estimated to have gradually reduced investment by about 11% over the three years following the June 2016 vote. This fall in investment took longer to occur than predicted at the time of the referendum, suggesting that the size and persistence of this uncertainty may have delayed firms' response to the Brexit vote. Finally, the Brexit process is estimated to have reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5% over the three years after the referendum. Much of this drop is from negative within-firm effects, in part because firms are committing several hours per week of top-management time to Brexit planning. We also find evidence for smaller negative between-firm effects as more productive, internationally exposed, firms have been more negatively impacted than less productive domestic firms.
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