🕷️ Crawler Inspector

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Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 57 (from laksa158)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa057.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical, ml_categories_json AS ml_categories_json, ml_types_json AS ml_types_json, ml_intent_types_json AS ml_intent_types_json, meta_language AS meta_language, attrs_author AS attrs_author, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(attrs_publish_time), 0) AS attrs_publish_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(attrs_original_publish_time), 0) AS attrs_original_publish_time, ifNull(attrs_is_republished, 0) AS attrs_is_republished, ifNull(attrs_nr_words, 0) AS attrs_nr_words, ifNull(attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words, 0) AS attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words, ifNull(body_ext_links_number, 0) AS body_ext_links_number, ifNull(body_int_links_number, 0) AS body_int_links_number, ifNull(meta_nofollow, 0) AS meta_nofollow, ifNull(meta_noarchive, 0) AS meta_noarchive, ifNull(props_was_rendered, 0) AS props_was_rendered, ifNull(src_redirect, \'\') AS src_redirect, ifNull(download_time_msec, 0) AS download_time_msec, ifNull(download_ttfb_msec, 0) AS download_ttfb_msec, ifNull(download_size, 0) AS download_size FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://seekingalpha.com/article/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://seekingalpha.com/article/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble","crawl_time":1775363718,"first_indexed_time":1757092447,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,seekingalpha!\/article\/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble s443","src_root_hash":"11478393694123815657","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"5 Clear Signs Of A Market Bubble | Seeking Alpha","meta_descriptions":["We discuss 5 key charts that reveal why the stock market is overbought despite jobs data. Learn what investors should watch now. Click for more."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Home\nMarket Outlook\nToday's Market\nSummary\nMarkets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market.\nTwo things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates.\nA prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment.\nThis article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\nLearn More »\nanankkml\/iStock via Getty Images\nThe market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs\nreport\nwere lower than the number\nof unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS\nreport\nshowed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS\nreading\nas well as significant downward\nrevisions\nto May and June jobs numbers.\nSEC Filings, Geekwire\nYet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like\nMicrosoft (\nMSFT\n), Alphabet (\nGOOG\n)\n,\nAmazon (\nAMZN\n),\nand\nMeta Platforms (\nMETA\n)\nare making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September.\nSo, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts\/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause.\nVisual Capitalist\nThe U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet.\nHowever, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people?\nU.S. as percent of global population\n(TheGlobalEconomy.com)\nI often point out the S&P 500 (\nSP500\n) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom.\nHistorical NASDAQ price to sales ratio\n(Macrotrends)\nHowever, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ (\nCOMP:IND\n), which is now north of 6.7 times.\nGuruFocus\nThen we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the \"\nBuffett Indicator,\"\ngiven the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why\nBerkshire Hathaway (\nBRK.B\n)\nhas built up\nrecord\ncash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year?\nS&P 500 Earnings Yield\n(Multpl)\nLet's move over to the S&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings\/S&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the \"\nrisk-free\"\n10-year Treasury (\nUS10Y\n) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no \"\nrisk premium\"\nto holding equities, but it is actually negative.\nVettafi - August 2025\nFinally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of:\nThe\nCrestmont Research\nP\/E ratio.\nThe\ncyclical P\/E ratio\nuses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor.\nThe\nQ ratio\nis the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost.\nThe\nrelationship\nof the S&P composite price to a regression trendline.\nThese calculations show the market has never been valued higher.\nAn investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, \"\nIt is different this time,\"\nor acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory.\nI clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within\ncovered call\nholdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives.\n57.25K Followers\nAnalyst’s Disclosure:\nI\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.\nI wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure:\nPast performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\nRecommended For You","attrs_markdown":"[Skip to content](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble#content)\n\n[Home page Seeking Alpha - Power to Investors](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/#source=source%3Asite_navigation)\n\n- Create Free Account\n- [About Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/subscriptions\/premium#source=why_premium%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Explore Alpha Picks](https:\/\/subscriptions.seekingalpha.com\/lp_alpha-picks_sub\/#source=explore_alpha_picks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [NEW Summary report](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/subscriptions\/premium-virtual-analyst-report#source=virtual_analyst_report%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [FREE Newsletters](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/free-investing-newsletters#source=free_newsletters%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n\n- [Home](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/#source=home%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Stock Analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/latest-articles#source=analysis%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Stock Analysis\n  - [Stock Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas#source=stock_ideas%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Market Outlook](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook#source=market_outlook%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Investing Strategy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/investing-strategy#source=investing_strategy%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Long Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/long-ideas#source=long_ideas%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [IPO Analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/ipos#source=ipo_analysis%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Editor's Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/editors-picks#source=editor's_picks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Cryptocurrency](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/cryptocurrency#source=cryptocurrency%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Market News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news#source=news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Market News\n  - [Top Market News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/trending#source=top_market_news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Notable Calls](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/notable-calls#source=notable_calls%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [On The Move](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/on-the-move#source=on-the-move%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Energy Stock News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/energy#source=energy_stock_news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Tech Stock News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/technology#source=tech_stock_news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [IPO News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/ipos#source=ipo_news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Artificial Intelligence (AI) News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/ai-tech-stocks#source=ai-tech-stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Budget & DOGE News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/budget-regulation#source=budget-regulation%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Merger & Acquisition News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/m-a#source=merger_acquisition_news%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Market Data](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/key_markets#source=market_performance%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Market Data\n  - [Key Market Data](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/key_markets#source=key_markets%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Earnings Calendar](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-calendar#source=earnings_calendar%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Currencies](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/currencies#source=currencies%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Cryptocurrency Prices](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/cryptocurrency#source=cryptocurrency_prices%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Sectors](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors#source=sectors%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Sectors\n  - [Technology](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/technology#source=technology%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Financial](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/financial#source=financial%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Consumer Discretionary](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/consumer-discretionary#source=consumer_discretionary%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Communication](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/communication-services#source=communication_services%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Healthcare](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/healthcare#source=healthcare%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Industrials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/industrials#source=industrials%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Consumer Staples](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/consumer-staples#source=consumer_staples%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Energy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/energy#source=energy%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Materials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/materials#source=materials%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Real Estate](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/real-estate#source=real_estate%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Utilities](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/utilities#source=utilities%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Dividends](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends#source=dividends%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Dividends\n  - [Top Dividend Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9679329c-Top-Dividend-Stocks#source=top_dividend_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Quant Dividend Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9408317dce-Top-Quant-Dividend-Stocks#source=top_quant_dividend_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-ideas#source=dividend_ideas%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend Quick Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-quick-picks#source=dividend_quick_picks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend Strategy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-strategy#source=dividend_strategy%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend News - Funds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/dividend-funds#source=dividend_news_funds%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend News - Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/dividend-stocks#source=dividend_news_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividends Data](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/dividends#source=etf_dividends%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds#source=etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## ETFs\n  - [Top Rated ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b797269-Top-Rated-ETFs#source=top_rated_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [ETF Strategies](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/strategies#source=etf_strategies%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [REITs & Real Estate ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/real_estate#source=reits_real_estate_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Commodity ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/commodities#source=commodity_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Emerging Markets ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/emerging_markets#source=emerging_markets_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Growth vs. Value ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/growth_vs_value#source=growth_vs_value_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Bonds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/bonds#source=bonds%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Country ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/countries#source=countries_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Earnings](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/earnings#source=earnings%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Earnings\n  - [Earnings Calendar](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-calendar#source=earnings_calendar%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Earnings Call Transcripts](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-call-transcripts#source=earnings_call_transcripts%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Earnings Call Insights](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/earnings-calls-insights#source=earnings_call_insights%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Education](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/investing-resources#source=education%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Podcasts](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/podcasts#source=podcasts%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Videos](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/videos#source=videos%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n\n## Investing Groups\n- [Explore Investing Groups](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/marketplace\/directory#source=investing_groups%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n\n## Portfolios\n- [Create Portfolio\\+](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/account\/portfolio#source=create_first_portfolio%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Portfolio Health Check](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/portfolio-health-check#source=portfolio_health_check%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [About Portfolio](https:\/\/subscriptions.seekingalpha.com\/portfolio_about\/#source=about_portfolio%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n\n## Find & Compare\n- [Stock Screener](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners#source=stock_screener%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Stock Screener\n  - [All Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/967aaa441702-All-Stocks#source=all_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Rated Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/96793299-Top-Rated-Stocks#source=top_rated_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Growth Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9679348d-Top-Growth-Stocks#source=top_growth_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Value Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/96793482-Top-Value-Stocks#source=top_value_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Small Cap Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/967930eb-Top-Small-Cap-Stocks#source=top_small_cap_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Stocks by Quant](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/95b9990b-Stocks-by-Quant#source=stocks_by_quant%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Most Shorted Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/940d08e1dd-Most-Shorted-Stocks#source=most_shorted_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Strong Buy Stocks - Short Squeeze](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/940d0c9cca-Strong-Buy-Stocks-With-Short-Squeeze-Potential#source=strong_buy_stocks_short_squeeze%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top REITs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9ecfb4dfa7-Top-REITs#source=top_reits%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [ETF Screener](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs#source=etf_screener%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## ETF Screener\n  - [All ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/967aaa441700-All-ETFs#source=all_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Alternative ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b7973d1-Top-Alternative-ETFs#source=top_alternative_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Commodities ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b7973d0-Top-Commodities-ETFs#source=top_commodities_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top International Equities ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b7973d4-Top-International-Equity-ETFs#source=top_international_equities_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top Sector Equity ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b7973d5-Top-Sector-Equity-ETFs#source=top_sector_equity_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Top U.S. Equity ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/922b797268-Top-U-S--Equity-ETFs#source=top_us_equity_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Most Shorted ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs\/9ecdd541a8-Most-Shorted-ETFs#source=most_shorted_etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n- [Comparisons](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison#source=comparisons%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  \n  ## Comparisons\n  - [AI Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fbba4e-Artificial-Intelligence-%28AI%29-Stocks#source=ai_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [5G Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fdf02e-5G-Stocks#source=5g_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Aerospace & Defense Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fbba40-Aerospace-%26-Defense-Stocks#source=aerospace_defense_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Dividend Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fbb823-Dividend-Stocks#source=dividend_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Value Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fbb9fe-Value-Stocks#source=value_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Blue Chip Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/91b2fbbb60-Blue-Chip-Stocks#source=blue_chip_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [FAANG Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9e-FAANG-Stocks#source=faang_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Gold ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9679-Gold-ETFs#source=gold-etfs%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Cash Equivalents](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/95bd-Cash-Equivalents#source=cash_equivalents%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Big Bank Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9678-Big-Bank-Stocks#source=big_bank_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - [Big Pharma Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/967b-Big-Pharma-Stocks#source=big_pharma_stocks%3Aexpanded%3Anavbar_left)\n  - 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[Today's Market](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/todays-market#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n# 5 Clear Signs Of A Market Bubble\nSep 05, 2025, 1:13 PM ET[S\\&P 500 Index (SP500)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASP500), [SPX](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPX), [DJI](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/DJI#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ADJI), [NDX](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/NDX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ANDX), [SPY](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPY), [DIA](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/DIA#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ADIA), [QQQ](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/QQQ#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AQQQ), [IVV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IVV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVV), [VOO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/VOO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AVOO), [IWM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWM)[MSFT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMSFT), [GOOG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GOOG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AGOOG), [AMZN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMZN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAMZN), [META](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/META#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMETA), [BRK.A](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BRK.A#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ABRK.A), [ACTV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/ACTV-DEFUNCT-612203#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AACTV-DEFUNCT-612203), [AFMC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AFMC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAFMC), [AFSM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AFSM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAFSM), [ARKK](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/ARKK#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AARKK), [AVUV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AVUV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAVUV), [BAPR](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BAPR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ABAPR), [IVOO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IVOO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVOO), [IVOV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IVOV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVOV), [IVW](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IVW#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVW), [IWC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWC), [IWN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWN), [IWO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWO), [IWP](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWP#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWP), [IWR](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWR), [IWS](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWS), [IYY](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IYY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIYY), [SPLV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPLV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPLV), [SPMD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPMD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMD), [SPMO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPMO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMO), [SPMV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPMV-DEFUNCT-582645#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMV-DEFUNCT-582645), [SPSM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPSM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPSM), [SPUS](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPUS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPUS), [SPUU](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPUU#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPUU), [SPVM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPVM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPVM), [QVMT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/QVMT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AQVMT), [SPXE](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXE#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXE), [SPXL](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXL#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXL), [SPXN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXN), [SPXS](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXS), [SPXT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXT), [SPXU](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXU#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXU), [SPXV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPXV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXV), [SPYD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPYD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYD), [SPYG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPYG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYG), [SPYV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPYV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYV), [SPYX](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPYX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYX), [SQEW](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SQEW-DEFUNCT-603599#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASQEW-DEFUNCT-603599), [SQLV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SQLV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASQLV), [SSO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SSO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASSO), [SSPY](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SSPY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASSPY), [SVAL](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SVAL#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASVAL), [SYLD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SYLD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASYLD), [TMDV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/TMDV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATMDV), [TPHD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/TPHD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPHD), [TPLC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/TPLC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPLC), [TPSC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/TPSC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPSC), [UAUG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UAUG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUAUG), [UJAN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UJAN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUJAN), [UMAR](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UMAR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUMAR), [UMAY](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UMAY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUMAY), [UOCT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UOCT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUOCT), [UPRO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/UPRO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUPRO), [USMC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/USMC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSMC), [USMF](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/USMF#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSMF), [USVM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/USVM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSVM), [MAGS](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MAGS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMAGS)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cauthor_name)\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cinvesting_group_badge)\n\nFollow\n\n- 5\n  \n  Share\n- Save\n- Play(5min)\n- [Comments (209)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble#scroll_comments)\n\n## Summary\n- Markets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market.\n- Two things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates.\n- A prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment.\n- This article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory.\n- Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. [Learn More »](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A498952%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CThe%20Biotech%20Forum\")\n\n![hand hole needle with stock chart in bubble](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/490025786\/image_490025786.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)\n\nanankkml\/iStock via Getty Images\n\nThe market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs [**report**](https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/jobs-report-august-2025-economy-trump-hiring-bls\/) were lower than the number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS [**report**](https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/05\/jobs-report-august-2025.html) showed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS [**reading**](https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&sc=12-26&sk=&cvid=66B50E580FFA4FB29B56AE8BD7AC1FA3) as well as significant downward [**revisions**](https:\/\/thehill.com\/business\/5431805-us-job-growth-revised-downward\/) to May and June jobs numbers.\n\n![Microsoft Cap Ex spending by Quarter](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/1\/saupload_Screenshot-2025-07-30-150038.png?io=w640)\n\nSEC Filings, Geekwire\n\nYet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like **Microsoft ([MSFT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), Alphabet ([GOOG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GOOG#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))**, **Amazon ([AMZN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMZN#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)),** and **Meta Platforms ([META](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/META#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** are making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September.\n\nSo, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts\/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause.\n\n![Global Stock Market Capitlization](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/8\/29\/saupload_Global-Stock-Market_Terzo_Main.jpg?io=w640)\n\nVisual Capitalist\n\nThe U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet.\n\nHowever, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people?\n\n[![U.S. as percent of global population](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png)\n\nU.S. as percent of global population (TheGlobalEconomy.com)\n\nI often point out the S\\&P 500 ([SP500](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom.\n\n[![Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png)\n\nHistorical NASDAQ price to sales ratio (Macrotrends)\n\nHowever, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ ([COMP:IND](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/COMP:IND#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), which is now north of 6.7 times.\n\n[![Market Cap To GDP ratio](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png)\n\nGuruFocus\n\nThen we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the \"*Buffett Indicator,\"* given the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why **Berkshire Hathaway ([BRK.B](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BRK.B#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** has built up [**record**](https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/why-warren-buffett-is-holding-usd325-billion-8772306) cash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year?\n\n[![S\\&P 500 Earnings Yield](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png)\n\nS\\&P 500 Earnings Yield (Multpl)\n\nLet's move over to the S\\&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings\/S\\&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the \"*risk-free\"* 10-year Treasury ([US10Y](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/US10Y#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no \"*risk premium\"* to holding equities, but it is actually negative.\n\n[![Arithmetic Mean calculations](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png)\n\nVettafi - August 2025\n\nFinally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of:\n\n- The [**Crestmont Research**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/crestmont-p-e-and-market-valuation-august-2025) P\/E ratio.\n- The [**cyclical P\/E ratio**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025) uses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor.\n- The [**Q ratio**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025) is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost.\n- The [**relationship**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-187-above-trend-in-august) of the S\\&P composite price to a regression trendline.\n\nThese calculations show the market has never been valued higher.\n\nAn investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, \"*It is different this time,\"* or acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory.\n\nI clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within [**covered call**](https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/coveredcall.asp) holdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives.\n\n## More on my IG service\nLive Chat on **The Biotech Forum** sees frequent discussion of specific covered call trades. To see what covered call trades I am currently executing along with a model portfolio of attractive biotech stocks, just initiate your free trial into [**The Biotech Forum**](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/mp\/76-the-biotech-forum\/articles#source=ig_inline_banner) by clicking [**HERE**](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/mp\/76-the-biotech-forum\/articles#source=ig_inline_banner).\n\nThis article was written by\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_root%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_root%7Cauthor_name)\n\n57\\.25K Followers\n\nFollow\n\nBret Jensen has over 13 years as a market analyst, helping investors find big winners in the biotech sector. Bret specializes in high beta sectors with potentially large investor returns.Bret leads the investing group The Biotech Forum, in which he and his team offer a model portfolio with their favorite 12-20 high upside biotech stocks, live chat to discuss trade ideas, and weekly research and option trades. The group also provides market commentary and a portfolio update every weekend. Learn More.\n\nShow more\n\nShow more\n\n**Analyst’s Disclosure:** I\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\n\n**Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\n- Like (3)\n- Share\n- Print\n- [Comments (209)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble#scroll_comments)\n\n### Recommended For You\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/113\/560\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=76f2c1d32f)\n\n### [Buy The Dip: Best 5 Tech Stocks With Average Forward EPS Growth Of 197%](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888176-best-tech-stocks-with-strong-eps-growth-to-buy-on-the-dip#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A1)\nSteven Cress, Quant Team\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/662\/133\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=61429dbede)\n\n### [Micron Could Be The Next Intel](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888354-micron-could-be-next-intel#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A2)\nJames Foord\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/027\/443\/183\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=63526f4162)\n\n### [7 Dividend Increases Expected In April 2026](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888266-7-dividend-increases-expected-in-april-2026#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A3)\nDividend Diplomats\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/594\/911\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=778fc0473b)\n\n### [Microsoft And Its Real Value](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888383-microsoft-and-its-real-value#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A4)\nGrant Gigliotti\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/009\/932\/311\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=b745033c1e)\n\n### [Palantir: Winner Of The AI War](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888424-palantir-winner-of-ai-war#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A5)\nDhierin Bechai\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/055\/355\/197\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=eb3c718288)\n\n### [How To Prepare Your Portfolio For The Proposed 'Six-Figure' Social Security Limit](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4887441-how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-the-proposed-six-figure-social-security-limit#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A6)\nBrett Ashcroft Green\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/063\/243\/649\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=6a96821296)\n\n### [Broadcom: The AI Plumber Set For A Massive Explosion](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888432-broadcom-the-ai-plumber-set-for-massive-explosion#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A7)\nNova Capital\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/200\/183\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=89b9b3a7ec)\n\n### [Why It May Be Time To Load Up Soon](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888088-why-it-may-be-time-to-load-up-soon#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A8)\nVictor Dergunov\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/055\/029\/283\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=def3da80e2)\n\n### [How To Build A \\$75,000 Dividend Portfolio With SCHD And 8 Global Dividend Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4887938-how-to-build-a-75000-dividend-portfolio-with-schd-and-8-global-dividend-picks#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A9)\nFrederik Mueller\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/051\/630\/113\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=997f333d95)\n\n### [Blue Owl: Redemptions Panic Creates A Hard-To-Miss Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888364-blue-owl-redemptions-panic-creates-hard-to-miss-opportunity-upgrade#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A10)\nJR Research\n\n### Comments (209)\nNewest\n\nIf you type a company or ETF ticker symbol in capital letters we will automatically link to the symbol page. You can remove the link by deleting the \\$ in the comment.\n\nPublish\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/013\/247\/902\/small_pic.png?t=fbdc67f2b4)\n\n[ransim7222](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/13247902)\n\nSep 10, 2025, 9:13 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (30.73K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/13247902)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nApparently many commenters do NOT believe that AI will produce any significant gains in productivity, despite the massive hype. Otherwise, why are they predicting a crash?\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nB\n\n[Big Tex 6988](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48783079)\n\nSep 11, 2025, 8:08 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (548)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48783079)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@ransim7222](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/13247902#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101065286) This commenter DOES believe that AI will produce significant gains in productivity, but it will take place over time and the amount of productivity gained in no way will justify the nosebleed valuations today.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(4)\n\nt\n\n[timinator56](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/24144333)\n\nSep 09, 2025, 11:37 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1201#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (271)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/24144333)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nimpossible to guess a top; keep trading & if we crash then deal with it; long term is up\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/853\/722\/small_pic.png?t=3f893f13c1)\n\n[JoeMonte](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/853722)\n\nSep 09, 2025, 7:37 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (3.06K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/853722)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nExcellent summary ! You wonder when we could have a correction.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 09, 2025, 7:42 AM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@JoeMonte](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/853722#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101049094) The 'When' is the hard part right now, not the 'If'\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nB\n\n[BklynDave1](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48786333)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 10:22 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (63)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48786333)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nEveryone knows how big AI will be, the timing of the payoff is going to be off just like the dot com sell off. The wheat will be separated from the chaff and we will see what we have. JEPI and some REITS (or dividend payers in general) should displace some of the risk in a portfolio IMO.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/005\/149\/981\/small_pic.png?t=97e1c442d1)\n\n[Jim Wallingford](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jim-wallingford)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 7:01 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (2.25K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jim-wallingford)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nWhat gnaws at me is Bob Farrell's rule \\#4: Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Am I being greedy by staying invested? Whispering in my other ear: you don't want to miss what a few analysts are forecasting as a \"melt-up\" to at least 7000 on theS\\&P. David Hunter is calling for 8000\\!  \nSo pulled in two directions at once. I have 5% trailing stops in place so feel somewhat protected but stops, of course, can be ineffective when stocks crash at the open.   \nSomebody help me! LOL\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nB\n\n[Blue Goose](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/39275576)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 9:00 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1319#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (6.73K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/39275576)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Jim Wallingford](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jim-wallingford#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101047586) Net-dollar creation is strong, I'm staying long.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/005\/149\/981\/small_pic.png?t=97e1c442d1)\n\n[Jim Wallingford](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jim-wallingford)\n\nSep 10, 2025, 2:07 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (2.25K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jim-wallingford)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Blue Goose](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/39275576#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101060763) Yup, me too. \"Greed is good!\"\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/380\/229\/small_pic.png?t=342b6fbd22)\n\n[Joe4477](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49380229)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 6:27 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (139)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49380229)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n\"Goldman Sachs forecasts positive outlook for U.S. stocks through 2026\" - 9\/8\/2025  \nDon't fall for the scare tactics discussed in this article. Use your own good sense and look at earnings growth, foreign and domestic investment in the US, the transformational power of AI and what it will do to productivity. Not all companies will be able to capitalize on these tailwinds. Choose the ones that will.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 6:32 PM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Joe4477](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49380229#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101046699)\n\nAKA, ignore the fast-deteriorating jobs market, falling home prices, sticky inflation, extreme market valuations, and over \\$37T of federal debt, which is rising fast.......It is all about FOMO and AI, Campers\\!\n\nAnd Goldman is never WRONG! :-)\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nB\n\n[BklynDave1](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48786333)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 10:21 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (63)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48786333)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101047875) the goldman piece actually is what got me reading this article because it scared me. Those d bags would say something like that and backout of everything before the rest of took a massive haircut.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 09, 2025, 7:40 AM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@BklynDave1](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48786333#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101049086) I have several friends that were on or ran trading desks on Wall Street back in the 90s. If Goldman said buy back then, it meant they were selling for clients and sell meant vice versa. Some things don't change\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nSee More Replies\n\nS\n\n[SeattleBiotechInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15645092)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 3:48 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (8)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15645092)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nBret you have made your case--thanks for this well-argued article. But as I look to reduce my exposure to US equities, where do you recommend I look to invest the funds? (I just bought a 4-plex residential investment property taking the down payment out of the market but not sure where else to go).\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 6:14 PM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@SeattleBiotechInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15645092#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101046512) I go rid of my property in mid-2023 for a nice profit. Currently sitting in 25% short term treasuries, 1% in Armageddon trades and the rest in covered call holdings around the few stocks in the market sporting reasonable valuations.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nB\n\n[Big Tex 6988](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48783079)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 8:44 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (548)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48783079)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nThere is no discussion in the article on the roughly \\$8 trillion of fiat money pumped into the system over the past 5 years. The real question to me is when do the distortions created by this unprecedented action finally wear off?\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 9:14 AM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Big Tex 6988](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48783079#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101042642) I have covered that many, many times in other articles in recent months\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nP\n\n[532P799R](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6457561)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:56 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (16.85K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6457561)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nExcellent data and commentary.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/864\/194\/small_pic.png?t=a6ed096ff2)\n\n[haleakala](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/864194)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 2:19 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (708)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/864194)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nI bought QQQs at 22 in 2002, and sold in 40s a few years later. Had I held, it would have been 500s today. My 3 points are- 1: Time in market. Y, we’re totally sick of reading it on SA, but it’s the cure for everything. If you’re a boomer, you may not have enough time left for that to be applicable. So tread carefully here. If you’re under 50 and have a job, take up golf or cure cancer, hedge a bit, take some insane profits off the table, but don’t sweat it unless you’re leveraged. 2. The cream rises over time. Which is why QQQ sits near 600. Cap weighting over time is why index funds are the only thing which make sense. Until they don’t. 3. During my investing lifetime, companies ended the old traditional retirement plans like my Dad had. So American life is built on IRAs and 401ks. IOW, Mom, baseball, apple pie, and 401ks. Not in that order. That daily push for retirement means old traditional valuation metrics are probably not valid in a classic sense. How can PEs in the 10-15 range truly exist when the guys pulling weeds from your backyard are putting money into their IRAs, besides everyone else between the coasts. Same for most valuation metrics. So while I agree that companies like Palentir and NVDA will probably have graphs like CSCO did after 2000, the indexes will capture the new cream over time, which will have huge valuations. Perpetual chain letter will occasionally stretch or transiently break, but it will always eventually reconstitute and continue. The American way.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nS\n\n[SB Pirate](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48423075)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 7:39 PM\n\n[Comments (3.9K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48423075)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@haleakala](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/864194#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101040523) not always, sometimes there is the straw that puts the camel out of commission. History says eventually can be 500+ years. Hard to know if we are there or there is another round of inflation to come.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/864\/194\/small_pic.png?t=a6ed096ff2)\n\n[haleakala](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/864194)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:33 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (708)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/864194)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@SB Pirate](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48423075#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101040700) Y, 3 decades for Nikkei to get back to old high, 12 years for Nasdaq after dot com., 7 yrs for other indices. Not acceptable for most boomers, a non event if under age 50, especially with regular contributions. 500 yrs could be tough, especially w low vol.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nm\n\n[mewink](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/23767853)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 12:44 PM\n\n[Comments (34)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/23767853)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n\" Before reality eventual arrives\" When is this going to happen, meaning stocks will return to reasonable valuation as defined by Warren Buffett ? There are many stocks overvalued which gone up quite a bit. A good example is Palantir which has an astronomical P\/E of over value of 500 and yet it went up quite a bit initially.  \nReality as defined by Buffett works in a long run but not with active trading.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/029\/030\/705\/small_pic.png?t=cbb8937da4)\n\n[luckylalo](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/29030705)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 1:27 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (4.22K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/29030705)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@mewink](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/23767853#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101041425) Revolutionary companies sometimes have astronomical P\/Es.\n\nBut their shareholders still get rich while value investors sit on the sidelines.\n\nI've been one of those value investors on occasion.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nM\n\n[Murrs700](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7122391)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 10:53 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1177#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.17K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7122391)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nKeep up the good work. It is very hard being a bear in a bubble market. The last 5 years have rewritten the rules of the market for sure. The excess in the stock market is part of what's adding to the inflation problem, debt problem and many others.\n\nAdditionally it is fueling what I call lottery winner mentality. When people win the lottery they generally go bankrupt at some point after. Whenever anyone gets flushed with cash in a short period of time the same end result almost always happens. The recent market increases are functioning pretty much the same as a massive lottery win. Historically an annual return of 8-10% on most investment was considered very good. Last few years people have come to think 25-45% return is the new normal. Wouldn't that be a nice fantasy, but alas thats all it is. The music will continue until it doesn't. To be fair the dot com bubble started in 1995 and lasted almost 5 years. While you could argue the current bubble started in 2020 with a slight pause in 2022-2023, I peg the start closer to October 2023 which means we could be in the 4th or the 9th inning right now. 5 years is definitely not a standard.\n\nUltimately we will eventually see the market return at a minimum to the highs of 2023. What and when are impossible to know. It's beyond irresponsible to be long anything right now, but also likely not a very good idea to try to short. This is a holding pattern market where the sidelines are generally the best spot for the near term.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nH\n\n[HigherHigh](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/4113391)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 10:17 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (231)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/4113391)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nI don't like the word \"bubble\". To me that's like saying, \"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!\" But I also think it's a matter of days before a Correction. I don't like Covered Calls, but I will check into them. Thanks.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/516\/233\/small_pic.png?t=d3516bb828)\n\n[HildaBeast](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49516233)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 2:17 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (859)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49516233)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@HigherHigh](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/4113391#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039297) If I am preaching to the choir, please pardon me. An idea: Although your return will be less than if you were writing the calls yourself, there are good quality, derivative income funds that return between 4 and 10+% in monthy distributions. Although being beaten down by naysayers of late, We have a significant position in JEPI. I currently like its partner fund JEPQ, and I like DIVO as well. The expense ratios are modest on these too. At this point, with \"frothy\" \"bubbles\" of \"irrational exuberance\", I am leaving it up to people who know way more than me to protect me a bit in the downside. I have also started looking into specific CEFs. While the expense rations are high (one, DFP- Dynamic Preferred Income sits at 1.5%), the returns are considerable and the experts are making [@HigherHigh](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/4113391#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039297)\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nV\n\n[Vgananth](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61143267)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 10:00 AM\n\n[Comments (1)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61143267)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nVery sensible\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/013\/247\/902\/small_pic.png?t=fbdc67f2b4)\n\n[ransim7222](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/13247902)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 9:01 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (30.73K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/13247902)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nAll the predictions of a total demise in global preference for US equities and debt have been wrong. In case anyone missed it, there is a new Axis of Evil developing and the world seems to be worried as we have seen this movie before. And where do a lot of global investors seek safety? The US equity market alone is one-half of the entire world equity market. So US equities and debt 'Climb the wall of worry.' IMO.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/007\/221\/531\/small_pic.png?t=9a07e701ca)\n\n[TJ Burke](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7221531)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:44 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (2.24K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7221531)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n“market has never been valued higher”?  \nReally, never?  \nThat’s a bold statement my friend.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3)\n\n[Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:58 AM\n\n[Investing Group Leader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader)\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (28.65K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@TJ Burke](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7221531#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037703) Look at the historical metrics\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/007\/221\/531\/small_pic.png?t=9a07e701ca)\n\n[TJ Burke](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7221531)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 11:05 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (2.24K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/7221531)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101038399) Noted.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/609\/214\/small_pic.png?t=b2e1abddd0)\n\n[Algorithmic](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48609214)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:16 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1268#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.04K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/48609214)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Bret Jensen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592) Your chart showing the relative size of each countries market valuation was very revealing, especially as a sign of wealth.\n\nI always thought that the market was also an indicator of optimism. There is a lot of optimism in the US. AI is optimism. How many technical revolutions has the US been the growth catalyst for? Trains, Planes, Automobiles, computers, now AI.\n\nThe innovative makers found a place where the fruits of their imagintion are rewarded. Vanderbuilt, Hughes, Ford, Gates, ...\n\nUltra long \\$[msft](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592), Long \\$[xom](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/XOM#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592). Tech and energy is all you need going forward.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nO\n\n[Old Line Trader](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/30576455)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 8:01 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Comments (151)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/30576455)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nValuations have almost always seemed high over the past 5 years, yet somehow the stock market continues to make higher highs. This, despite the fact that interest rates are still rather high. I’m not sure why you would sell equities when rate cuts are imminent. Dropping bond yields will make equities more attractive in my opinion.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nI\n\n[Iamtheproduxt](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49122339)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 6:28 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (294)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49122339)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nthe labour market is slowing due to Gen AI making the existing workforce more productive. And this trend should continue and reach another inflection point as robotics + AI becomes widely adopted for manual labour.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/029\/030\/705\/small_pic.png?t=cbb8937da4)\n\n[luckylalo](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/29030705)\n\nSep 08, 2025, 1:26 AM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (4.22K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/29030705)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Iamtheproduxt](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49122339#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101041424) Tariffs are causing the slowdown more than AI.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/030\/556\/small_pic.png?t=0ca2506c76)\n\n[Chimpanzee ate my face](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/30556)\n\nSep 06, 2025, 8:54 PM\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1241#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.16K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/30556)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\nAccording to Barron's, there is one \\$trillion of margin debt hanging over the stock and option markets. That doesn't sound good. [www.barrons.com\/...](https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/borrowing-bet-on-markets-1-trillion-dangerous-414f0843?mod=past_editions \"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/borrowing-bet-on-markets-1-trillion-dangerous-414f0843?mod=past_editions\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(3)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/516\/233\/small_pic.png?t=d3516bb828)\n\n[HildaBeast](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49516233)\n\nSep 07, 2025, 2:27 PM\n\nPremium\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (859)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/49516233)\n\n\\|\n\n\\+ Follow\n\n[@Chimpanzee ate my face](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/30556#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039349) Wow. I had not seen that figure. Thanks. Add to that the level of consumer debt: \\$1.64T student loans, \\$1.66T auto loans and \\$1.21T credit card debt and we have approx \\$6.5T in debt for which we'll be on the hook for...again.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nAdd A Comment\n\nDisagree with this article? [Submit your own](https:\/\/about.seekingalpha.com\/become-an-analyst).\n\nTo report a factual error in this article,\n\nclick here\n\n.\n\nYour feedback matters to us\\!\n\n### About SP500 Ticker\n| Symbol | Last Price | % Chg |\n|---|---|---|\n| [SP500](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A1%7Csymbol%3ASP500) S\\&P 500 Index | 6,582.70 | 0\\.11% |\n\n- 1D\n- 5D\n- 1M\n- 6M\n- 1Y\n- 5Y\n- 10Y\n\n###### Chart\nCombination chart with 2 data series.\n\nView as data table, Chart\n\nThe chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2025-04-02 00:00:00 to 2026-04-02 00:00:00.\n\nThe chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 4982.77 to 6978.59.\n\nCreated with Highcharts 12.5.0\n\nMay '25\n\nAug '25\n\nNov '25\n\nFeb '26\n\n4,000\n\n6,000\n\n8,000\n\nEnd of interactive chart.\n\n52 Week High\n\n7,002.28\n\n52 Week Low\n\n4,835.04\n\nOpen\n\n6,512.61\n\nPrev. Close\n\n\\$6,575.32\n\nCompare to Peers\n\n### More on SP500\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/150\/144\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n### [The 1-Minute Market Report, April 5, 2026](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888436-the-1-minute-market-report-april-5-2026#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A1%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n[Erik Conley](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/erik-conley#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A1%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/059\/636\/229\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n### [U.S. Markets Are Repeating 2025's Tantrums](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888398-us-markets-repeating-2025-tantrums#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A2%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n[Uttam Dey](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/uttam-dey#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A2%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/540\/393\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n### [Weekly Indicators: Interest Rates Decline Even As Oil Shock Worsens](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888338-weekly-indicators-interest-rates-decline-even-as-oil-shock-worsens#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A3%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n[New Deal Democrat](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/new-deal-democrat#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A3%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/020\/858\/741\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n### [The March Jobs Report: Unemployment Down, Labor Slack Holds, And So Should The Fed](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888359-the-march-jobs-report-unemployment-down-labor-slack-holds-so-should-the-fed#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A4%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n[Jeremy LaKosh](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/jeremy-lakosh#source=section_asset%3Amore-on%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A4%7Cpos%3Aundefined)\n\n### Related Stocks\n| Symbol | Last Price | % Chg |\n|---|---|---|\n| [QQQ](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/QQQ#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A1%7Csymbol%3Aqqq) QQQ | 584\\.98 | 0\\.11% |\n| Post: | 584\\.80 | \\-0.03% |\n| [SPY](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPY#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A2%7Csymbol%3Aspy) SPY | 655\\.83 | 0\\.09% |\n| Post: | 655\\.92 | 0\\.01% |\n| [DIA](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/DIA#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A3%7Csymbol%3Adia) DIA | 465\\.06 | \\-0.09% |\n| Post: | 465\\.15 | 0\\.02% |\n| [IVV](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IVV#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A4%7Csymbol%3Aivv) IVV | 658\\.96 | 0\\.14% |\n| Post: | 658\\.98 | 0\\.00% |\n| [IWM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/IWM#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A5%7Csymbol%3Aiwm) IWM | 251\\.29 | 0\\.69% |\n| Post: | 251\\.20 | \\-0.04% |\n| [VOO](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/VOO#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A6%7Csymbol%3Avoo) VOO | 602\\.99 | 0\\.11% |\n| Post: | 602\\.98 | \\-0.00% |\n| [SP500](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A7%7Csymbol%3Asp500) SP500 | 6,582.70 | 0\\.11% |\n| [NDX](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/NDX#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A8%7Csymbol%3Andx) NDX | 24,045.53 | 0\\.11% |\n| [DJI](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/DJI#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A9%7Csymbol%3Adji) DJI | 46,504.73 | \\-0.13% |\n| [SPX](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SPX#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A10%7Csymbol%3Aspx) SPX | 6,570.94 | \\-0.18% |\n\n- 1D\n- 5D\n- 1M\n- 6M\n- 1Y\n- 5Y\n- 10Y\n\n###### Chart\nLine chart with 10 lines.\n\nView as data table, Chart\n\nThe chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2026-03-30 09:30:00 to 2026-04-05 00:10:00.\n\nThe chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from -1.9 to 3.97.\n\nCreated with Highcharts 12.5.0\n\nMar 31\n\nApr 1\n\nApr 2\n\nApr 3\n\nApr 5\n\n\\-5%\n\n0%\n\n5%\n\nEnd of interactive chart.\n\nCompare\n\n### Trending Analysis\n- ![Steven Cress, Quant Team profile picture](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/113\/560\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=082599ffa4)\n  \n  ### [Buy The Dip: Best 5 Tech Stocks With Average Forward EPS Growth Of 197%](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888176-best-tech-stocks-with-strong-eps-growth-to-buy-on-the-dip#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A1)\n- ![James Foord profile picture](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/662\/133\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=27b4a62c80)\n  \n  ### [Micron Could Be The Next Intel](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888354-micron-could-be-next-intel#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A2)\n- ![Dividend Diplomats profile picture](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/027\/443\/183\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=717e60717f)\n  \n  ### [7 Dividend Increases Expected In April 2026](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888266-7-dividend-increases-expected-in-april-2026#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A3)\n- ![Grant Gigliotti profile picture](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/594\/911\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=0f8556c6d4)\n  \n  ### [Microsoft And Its Real Value](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888383-microsoft-and-its-real-value#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A4)\n- ![Dhierin Bechai profile picture](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/009\/932\/311\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=cbc7db62ae)\n  \n  ### [Palantir: Winner Of The AI War](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4888424-palantir-winner-of-ai-war#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A5)\n\n[See All Analysis »](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/latest-articles#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cbutton%3Amore)\n\n### Trending News\n- 1\n  \n  ### [ChatGPT, DeepSeek continue to lose chatbot mobile market share in US as competition heats up](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4572409-chatgpt-deepseek-continue-to-lose-chatbot-mobile-market-share-in-us-as-competition-heats-up#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A1)\n- 2\n  \n  ### [Five EU nations reportedly propose windfall tax on energy firms](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4572527-eu-nations-propose-windfall-tax-energy-firms#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A2)\n- 3\n  \n  ### [SA Asks: With shares down around 20%, what's next for Micron?](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4572529-sa-asks-with-shares-down-around-20-percent-whats-next-for-micron#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A3)\n- 4\n  \n  ### [SA Asks: How will the McCormick-Unilever deal impact the sector?](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4572530-sa-asks-how-will-the-mccormick-unilever-deal-impact-the-sector#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A4)\n- 5\n  \n  ### [Trump says “all hell” will rain down on Iran if no deal within 48 hours](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4572524-trump-says-all-hell-will-rain-down-iran#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cline%3A5)\n\n[See All News »](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Atrending_news%7Cbutton%3Amore)\n\n[Seeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsPower to Investors](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/#source=source%3Asite_navigation)\n\n## Follow us\nDownload app\n***\n## Account\n- Account Login\n- Manage My Portfolio\n- Privacy\n- [Create Portfolio](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/account\/portfolio#source=footer)\n- [Portfolio Health 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Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/editors-picks#source=footer)\n- [Quick Picks & Lists](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/quick-picks#source=footer)\n- [Emerging Markets](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/emerging_markets#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Stock Screener](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners)\n- [Stocks by Quant](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/95b9990b-Stocks-by-Quant#source=footer)\n- [Top Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/96793299-Top-Rated-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [Top Quant Dividend Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9408317dce-Top-Quant-Dividend-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [High Dividend Yield Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9679329d-High-Dividend-Yield-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [Top Dividend Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/9679329c-Top-Dividend-Stocks#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [ETFs & Funds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds)\n- [ETF Screener](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/screeners\/etfs#source=footer)\n- [ETF Analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-analysis#source=footer)\n- [ETF Guide](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/education\/etf#source=footer)\n- [Mutual Funds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/mutual-funds#source=footer)\n- [Closed End Funds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/closed-end-funds#source=footer)\n- [Editors' Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/editors-picks#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Dividends](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends)\n- [Dividend Stock News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/dividend-stocks#source=footer)\n- [REITs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/reits#source=footer)\n- [Dividend Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-ideas#source=footer)\n- [Dividend Strategy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-strategy#source=footer)\n- [Dividend Quick Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/dividend-quick-picks#source=footer)\n- [Editors' Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/dividends\/editors-picks#source=footer)\n***\n\n## Analysis by Sector\n- [Energy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/energy#source=footer)\n- [Communication Services](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/communication-services#source=footer)\n- [Real Estate](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/real-estate#source=footer)\n- [Consumer Discretionary](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/consumer-discretionary#source=footer)\n- [Technology](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/technology#source=footer)\n- [Basic Materials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/materials#source=footer)\n- [Healthcare](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/healthcare#source=footer)\n- [Consumer Staples](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/consumer-staples#source=footer)\n- [Utilities](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/utilities#source=footer)\n- [Financials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/financial#source=footer)\n- [Industrials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/sectors\/industrials#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Stock Comparison Tools](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison)\n- [FAANG Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9e-FAANG-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [Gold ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9679-Gold-ETFs#source=footer)\n- [Cash Equivalents](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/95bd-Cash-Equivalents#source=footer)\n- [Big Bank Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/9678-Big-Bank-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [Big Pharma Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/967b-Big-Pharma-Stocks#source=footer)\n- [Retail Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/comparison\/967a-Retail-Stocks#source=footer)\n***\n\n## Top Indexes\n- [Dow Jones](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/DJI#source=footer)\n- [S\\&P 500](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#source=footer)\n- [Nasdaq](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/COMP:IND#source=footer)\n- [Gold](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/XAUUSD:CUR#source=footer)\n- [Bitcoin](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BTC-USD#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Market Outlook](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook)\n- [Today's Market](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/todays-market#source=footer)\n- [US Economy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/us-economy#source=footer)\n- [Gold & Precious Metals](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/gold-and-precious-metals#source=footer)\n- [Commodities](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/commodities#source=footer)\n- [Forex](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/forex#source=footer)\n- [Editors' Picks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/editors-picks#source=footer)\n- [Cryptocurrency](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/cryptocurrency#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Market Data](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/key_markets)\n- [Bond ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/bonds#source=footer)\n- [Commodity ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/commodities#source=footer)\n- [Country ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/countries#source=footer)\n- [Currency ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/currencies#source=footer)\n- [Dividend ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/dividends#source=footer)\n- [Emerging Market ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/emerging_markets#source=footer)\n- [Global and Regional ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/global_and_regions#source=footer)\n- [Growth vs. Value ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/growth_vs_value#source=footer)\n- [Market Cap ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/market_cap#source=footer)\n- [Real Estate ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/real_estate#source=footer)\n- [Sector ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/sectors#source=footer)\n- [ETF Strategies](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/strategies#source=footer)\n- [Smart Beta](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/smart_beta#source=footer)\n- [Themes & Subsectors ETFs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/themes_and_subsectors#source=footer)\n- [Cryptocurrency](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/etfs-and-funds\/etf-tables\/cryptocurrency#source=footer)\n***\n\n## [Market News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news)\n- [Top News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/top-news#source=footer)\n- [Trending News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/trending#source=footer)\n- [On the Move](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/on-the-move#source=footer)\n- [Market Pulse](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/market-pulse#source=footer)\n- [Global Markets](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/global#source=footer)\n- [Notable Calls](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/notable-calls#source=footer)\n- [Buybacks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/buybacks#source=footer)\n- [Commodities](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/commodities#source=footer)\n- [Cryptocurrency](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/cryptocurrency#source=footer)\n- [Debt\/Share Issuance](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/issuance#source=footer)\n- [Dividends - Stocks](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/dividend-stocks#source=footer)\n- [Dividends - Funds](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/dividend-funds#source=footer)\n- [Guidance](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/guidance#source=footer)\n- [IPOs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/ipos#source=footer)\n- [SPACs](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/spacs#source=footer)\n- [Budget & Regulation](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/budget-regulation#source=footer)\n- [Jobs & Employment](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/jobs-employment#source=footer)\n- [Politics](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/politics#source=footer)\n- [M\\&A](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/m-a#source=footer)\n- [US Economy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/us-economy#source=footer)\n- [Wall Street Breakfast](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/wall-street-breakfast#source=footer)\n***\n\n## News by Sector\n- [Consumer](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/consumer#source=footer)\n- [Energy](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/energy#source=footer)\n- [Financials](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/financials#source=footer)\n- [Healthcare](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/healthcare#source=footer)\n- [Tech](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/technology#source=footer)\n***\n\n## Earnings\n- [Earnings Calendar](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-calendar#source=footer)\n- [Earnings News](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-news\/earnings#source=footer)\n- [Earnings Analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-analysis#source=footer)\n- [Earnings Calls Transcripts](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings\/earnings-call-transcripts#source=footer)\n***\n***\nContact us\n\n[Subscription Support: subscriptions@seekingalpha.com](mailto:subscriptions@seekingalpha.com)\n\n- [Contact Us](https:\/\/help.seekingalpha.com#source=footer)\n- [About Us](https:\/\/about.seekingalpha.com#source=footer)\n- [Group Subscriptions](https:\/\/subscriptions.seekingalpha.com\/group_subscriptions#source=footer)\n- [Affiliate 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Please [report it on our feedback forum.](https:\/\/help.seekingalpha.com\/kb-tickets\/new)\n\nIf you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/_sa_track\/samw\/noscript?noscript[disabled]=true)\n\n![](https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tr?id=228550053985270&ev=PageView&noscript=1)","attrs_readable_markdown":"1. [Home](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n2. [Market Outlook](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n3. [Today's Market](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/market-outlook\/todays-market#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/000\/498\/952\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n## Summary\n- Markets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market.\n- Two things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates.\n- A prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment.\n- This article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory.\n- Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. [Learn More »](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A498952%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CThe%20Biotech%20Forum\")\n\n![hand hole needle with stock chart in bubble](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/490025786\/image_490025786.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)\n\nanankkml\/iStock via Getty Images\n\nThe market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs [**report**](https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/jobs-report-august-2025-economy-trump-hiring-bls\/) were lower than the number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS [**report**](https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/05\/jobs-report-august-2025.html) showed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS [**reading**](https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&sc=12-26&sk=&cvid=66B50E580FFA4FB29B56AE8BD7AC1FA3) as well as significant downward [**revisions**](https:\/\/thehill.com\/business\/5431805-us-job-growth-revised-downward\/) to May and June jobs numbers.\n\n![Microsoft Cap Ex spending by Quarter](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/1\/saupload_Screenshot-2025-07-30-150038.png?io=w640)\n\nSEC Filings, Geekwire\n\nYet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like **Microsoft ([MSFT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), Alphabet ([GOOG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GOOG#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))**, **Amazon ([AMZN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMZN#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)),** and **Meta Platforms ([META](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/META#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** are making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September.\n\nSo, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts\/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause.\n\n![Global Stock Market Capitlization](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/8\/29\/saupload_Global-Stock-Market_Terzo_Main.jpg?io=w640)\n\nVisual Capitalist\n\nThe U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet.\n\nHowever, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people?\n\n[![U.S. as percent of global population](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png)\n\nU.S. as percent of global population (TheGlobalEconomy.com)\n\nI often point out the S\\&P 500 ([SP500](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/SP500#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom.\n\n[![Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png)\n\nHistorical NASDAQ price to sales ratio (Macrotrends)\n\nHowever, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ ([COMP:IND](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/COMP:IND#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), which is now north of 6.7 times.\n\n[![Market Cap To GDP ratio](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png)\n\nGuruFocus\n\nThen we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the \"*Buffett Indicator,\"* given the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why **Berkshire Hathaway ([BRK.B](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BRK.B#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** has built up [**record**](https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/why-warren-buffett-is-holding-usd325-billion-8772306) cash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year?\n\n[![S\\&P 500 Earnings Yield](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png)\n\nS\\&P 500 Earnings Yield (Multpl)\n\nLet's move over to the S\\&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings\/S\\&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the \"*risk-free\"* 10-year Treasury ([US10Y](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/US10Y#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no \"*risk premium\"* to holding equities, but it is actually negative.\n\n[![Arithmetic Mean calculations](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/9\/5\/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png)\n\nVettafi - August 2025\n\nFinally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of:\n\n- The [**Crestmont Research**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/crestmont-p-e-and-market-valuation-august-2025) P\/E ratio.\n- The [**cyclical P\/E ratio**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025) uses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor.\n- The [**Q ratio**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025) is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost.\n- The [**relationship**](https:\/\/www.advisorperspectives.com\/dshort\/updates\/2025\/09\/02\/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-187-above-trend-in-august) of the S\\&P composite price to a regression trendline.\n\nThese calculations show the market has never been valued higher.\n\nAn investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, \"*It is different this time,\"* or acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory.\n\nI clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within [**covered call**](https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/coveredcall.asp) holdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives.\n\n57\\.25K Followers\n\n**Analyst’s Disclosure:** I\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\n\n**Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nRecommended For You\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/113\/560\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=76f2c1d32f)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/050\/662\/133\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=61429dbede)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/027\/443\/183\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=63526f4162)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/594\/911\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=778fc0473b)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/009\/932\/311\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=b745033c1e)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/055\/355\/197\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=eb3c718288)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/063\/243\/649\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=6a96821296)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/048\/200\/183\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=89b9b3a7ec)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/055\/029\/283\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=def3da80e2)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/051\/630\/113\/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=997f333d95)","meta_canonical":null,"ml_categories_json":"{\"\/Finance\":998,\"\/Finance\/Investing\":992,\"\/Finance\/Investing\/Stocks_and_Bonds\":955}","ml_types_json":"{\"\/Article\":995,\"\/Article\/News_Update\":501}","ml_intent_types_json":"{\"Informational\":998}","meta_language":"en","attrs_author":"Bret Jensen","attrs_publish_time":1757092411,"attrs_original_publish_time":1757092411,"attrs_is_republished":0,"attrs_nr_words":"5101","attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words":"944","body_ext_links_number":22,"body_int_links_number":319,"meta_nofollow":0,"meta_noarchive":1,"props_was_rendered":1,"src_redirect":"","download_time_msec":620,"download_ttfb_msec":614,"download_size":164728}

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5 Clear Signs Of A Market Bubble | Seeking Alpha

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We discuss 5 key charts that reveal why the stock market is overbought despite jobs data. Learn what investors should watch now. Click for more.

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Home Market Outlook Today's Market Summary Markets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market. Two things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates. A prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment. This article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » anankkml/iStock via Getty Images The market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs report were lower than the number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS report showed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS reading as well as significant downward revisions to May and June jobs numbers. SEC Filings, Geekwire Yet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOG ) , Amazon ( AMZN ), and Meta Platforms ( META ) are making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September. So, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause. Visual Capitalist The U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet. However, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people? U.S. as percent of global population (TheGlobalEconomy.com) I often point out the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom. Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio (Macrotrends) However, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ ( COMP:IND ), which is now north of 6.7 times. GuruFocus Then we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the " Buffett Indicator," given the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.B ) has built up record cash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year? S&P 500 Earnings Yield (Multpl) Let's move over to the S&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings/S&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the " risk-free" 10-year Treasury ( US10Y ) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no " risk premium" to holding equities, but it is actually negative. Vettafi - August 2025 Finally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of: The Crestmont Research P/E ratio. The cyclical P/E ratio uses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor. The Q ratio is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost. The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline. These calculations show the market has never been valued higher. An investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, " It is different this time," or acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory. I clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within covered call holdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives. 57.25K Followers Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Recommended For You

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[Today's Market](https://seekingalpha.com/market-outlook/todays-market#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) # 5 Clear Signs Of A Market Bubble Sep 05, 2025, 1:13 PM ET[S\&P 500 Index (SP500)](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASP500), [SPX](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPX), [DJI](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DJI#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ADJI), [NDX](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NDX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ANDX), [SPY](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPY), [DIA](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DIA#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ADIA), [QQQ](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QQQ#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AQQQ), [IVV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVV), [VOO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VOO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AVOO), [IWM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWM)[MSFT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMSFT), [GOOG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AGOOG), [AMZN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAMZN), [META](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/META#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMETA), [BRK.A](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BRK.A#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ABRK.A), [ACTV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ACTV-DEFUNCT-612203#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AACTV-DEFUNCT-612203), [AFMC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AFMC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAFMC), [AFSM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AFSM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAFSM), [ARKK](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARKK#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AARKK), [AVUV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AVUV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAVUV), [BAPR](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAPR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ABAPR), [IVOO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVOO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVOO), [IVOV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVOV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVOV), [IVW](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVW#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIVW), [IWC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWC), [IWN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWN), [IWO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWO), [IWP](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWP#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWP), [IWR](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWR), [IWS](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIWS), [IYY](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IYY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AIYY), [SPLV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPLV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPLV), [SPMD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPMD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMD), [SPMO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPMO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMO), [SPMV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPMV-DEFUNCT-582645#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPMV-DEFUNCT-582645), [SPSM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPSM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPSM), [SPUS](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPUS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPUS), [SPUU](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPUU#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPUU), [SPVM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPVM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPVM), [QVMT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QVMT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AQVMT), [SPXE](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXE#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXE), [SPXL](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXL#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXL), [SPXN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXN), [SPXS](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXS), [SPXT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXT), [SPXU](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXU#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXU), [SPXV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPXV), [SPYD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPYD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYD), [SPYG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPYG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYG), [SPYV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPYV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYV), [SPYX](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPYX#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASPYX), [SQEW](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SQEW-DEFUNCT-603599#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASQEW-DEFUNCT-603599), [SQLV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SQLV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASQLV), [SSO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASSO), [SSPY](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSPY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASSPY), [SVAL](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SVAL#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASVAL), [SYLD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SYLD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ASYLD), [TMDV](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TMDV#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATMDV), [TPHD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TPHD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPHD), [TPLC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TPLC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPLC), [TPSC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TPSC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3ATPSC), [UAUG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UAUG#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUAUG), [UJAN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UJAN#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUJAN), [UMAR](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UMAR#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUMAR), [UMAY](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UMAY#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUMAY), [UOCT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UOCT#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUOCT), [UPRO](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UPRO#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUPRO), [USMC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USMC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSMC), [USMF](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USMF#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSMF), [USVM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USVM#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AUSVM), [MAGS](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MAGS#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AMAGS) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/big_pic.png?io=w36) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cauthor_name) [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cinvesting_group_badge) Follow - 5 Share - Save - Play(5min) - [Comments (209)](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble#scroll_comments) ## Summary - Markets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market. - Two things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates. - A prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment. - This article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory. - Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. [Learn More »](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A498952%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CThe%20Biotech%20Forum") ![hand hole needle with stock chart in bubble](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/490025786/image_490025786.jpg?io=getty-c-w750) anankkml/iStock via Getty Images The market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs [**report**](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-report-august-2025-economy-trump-hiring-bls/) were lower than the number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS [**report**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/jobs-report-august-2025.html) showed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS [**reading**](https://www.bing.com/search?q=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&sc=12-26&sk=&cvid=66B50E580FFA4FB29B56AE8BD7AC1FA3) as well as significant downward [**revisions**](https://thehill.com/business/5431805-us-job-growth-revised-downward/) to May and June jobs numbers. ![Microsoft Cap Ex spending by Quarter](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/1/saupload_Screenshot-2025-07-30-150038.png?io=w640) SEC Filings, Geekwire Yet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like **Microsoft ([MSFT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), Alphabet ([GOOG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))**, **Amazon ([AMZN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)),** and **Meta Platforms ([META](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/META#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** are making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September. So, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause. ![Global Stock Market Capitlization](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/8/29/saupload_Global-Stock-Market_Terzo_Main.jpg?io=w640) Visual Capitalist The U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet. However, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people? [![U.S. as percent of global population](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png) U.S. as percent of global population (TheGlobalEconomy.com) I often point out the S\&P 500 ([SP500](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom. [![Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png) Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio (Macrotrends) However, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ ([COMP:IND](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COMP:IND#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), which is now north of 6.7 times. [![Market Cap To GDP ratio](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png) GuruFocus Then we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the "*Buffett Indicator,"* given the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why **Berkshire Hathaway ([BRK.B](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BRK.B#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** has built up [**record**](https://www.investopedia.com/why-warren-buffett-is-holding-usd325-billion-8772306) cash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year? [![S\&P 500 Earnings Yield](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png) S\&P 500 Earnings Yield (Multpl) Let's move over to the S\&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings/S\&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the "*risk-free"* 10-year Treasury ([US10Y](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no "*risk premium"* to holding equities, but it is actually negative. [![Arithmetic Mean calculations](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png) Vettafi - August 2025 Finally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of: - The [**Crestmont Research**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/crestmont-p-e-and-market-valuation-august-2025) P/E ratio. - The [**cyclical P/E ratio**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025) uses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor. - The [**Q ratio**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025) is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost. - The [**relationship**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-187-above-trend-in-august) of the S\&P composite price to a regression trendline. These calculations show the market has never been valued higher. An investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, "*It is different this time,"* or acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory. I clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within [**covered call**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredcall.asp) holdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives. ## More on my IG service Live Chat on **The Biotech Forum** sees frequent discussion of specific covered call trades. To see what covered call trades I am currently executing along with a model portfolio of attractive biotech stocks, just initiate your free trial into [**The Biotech Forum**](https://seekingalpha.com/mp/76-the-biotech-forum/articles#source=ig_inline_banner) by clicking [**HERE**](https://seekingalpha.com/mp/76-the-biotech-forum/articles#source=ig_inline_banner). This article was written by ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/big_pic.png?io=w36) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_root%3Abret-jensen%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_root%7Cauthor_name) 57\.25K Followers Follow Bret Jensen has over 13 years as a market analyst, helping investors find big winners in the biotech sector. Bret specializes in high beta sectors with potentially large investor returns.Bret leads the investing group The Biotech Forum, in which he and his team offer a model portfolio with their favorite 12-20 high upside biotech stocks, live chat to discuss trade ideas, and weekly research and option trades. The group also provides market commentary and a portfolio update every weekend. Learn More. Show more Show more **Analyst’s Disclosure:** I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. **Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. - Like (3) - Share - Print - [Comments (209)](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble#scroll_comments) ### Recommended For You ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/050/113/560/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=76f2c1d32f) ### [Buy The Dip: Best 5 Tech Stocks With Average Forward EPS Growth Of 197%](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888176-best-tech-stocks-with-strong-eps-growth-to-buy-on-the-dip#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A1) Steven Cress, Quant Team ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/050/662/133/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=61429dbede) ### [Micron Could Be The Next Intel](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888354-micron-could-be-next-intel#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A2) James Foord ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/027/443/183/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=63526f4162) ### [7 Dividend Increases Expected In April 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888266-7-dividend-increases-expected-in-april-2026#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A3) Dividend Diplomats ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/048/594/911/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=778fc0473b) ### [Microsoft And Its Real Value](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888383-microsoft-and-its-real-value#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A4) Grant Gigliotti ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/009/932/311/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=b745033c1e) ### [Palantir: Winner Of The AI War](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888424-palantir-winner-of-ai-war#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A5) Dhierin Bechai ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/055/355/197/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=eb3c718288) ### [How To Prepare Your Portfolio For The Proposed 'Six-Figure' Social Security Limit](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4887441-how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-the-proposed-six-figure-social-security-limit#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A6) Brett Ashcroft Green ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/063/243/649/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=6a96821296) ### [Broadcom: The AI Plumber Set For A Massive Explosion](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888432-broadcom-the-ai-plumber-set-for-massive-explosion#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A7) Nova Capital ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/048/200/183/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=89b9b3a7ec) ### [Why It May Be Time To Load Up Soon](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888088-why-it-may-be-time-to-load-up-soon#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A8) Victor Dergunov ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/055/029/283/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=def3da80e2) ### [How To Build A \$75,000 Dividend Portfolio With SCHD And 8 Global Dividend Picks](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4887938-how-to-build-a-75000-dividend-portfolio-with-schd-and-8-global-dividend-picks#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A9) Frederik Mueller ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/051/630/113/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=997f333d95) ### [Blue Owl: Redemptions Panic Creates A Hard-To-Miss Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4888364-blue-owl-redemptions-panic-creates-hard-to-miss-opportunity-upgrade#source=section%3Arecommended_for_you%7Csection_asset%3Aintegrated%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cvariation_group%3Avariation_a%7Cline%3A10) JR Research ### Comments (209) Newest If you type a company or ETF ticker symbol in capital letters we will automatically link to the symbol page. You can remove the link by deleting the \$ in the comment. Publish ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/013/247/902/small_pic.png?t=fbdc67f2b4) [ransim7222](https://seekingalpha.com/user/13247902) Sep 10, 2025, 9:13 AM Premium [Comments (30.73K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/13247902) \| \+ Follow Apparently many commenters do NOT believe that AI will produce any significant gains in productivity, despite the massive hype. Otherwise, why are they predicting a crash? Reply Like B [Big Tex 6988](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48783079) Sep 11, 2025, 8:08 AM Premium [Comments (548)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48783079) \| \+ Follow [@ransim7222](https://seekingalpha.com/user/13247902#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101065286) This commenter DOES believe that AI will produce significant gains in productivity, but it will take place over time and the amount of productivity gained in no way will justify the nosebleed valuations today. Reply Like (4) t [timinator56](https://seekingalpha.com/user/24144333) Sep 09, 2025, 11:37 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1201#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (271)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/24144333) \| \+ Follow impossible to guess a top; keep trading & if we crash then deal with it; long term is up Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/853/722/small_pic.png?t=3f893f13c1) [JoeMonte](https://seekingalpha.com/user/853722) Sep 09, 2025, 7:37 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (3.06K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/853722) \| \+ Follow Excellent summary ! You wonder when we could have a correction. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 09, 2025, 7:42 AM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@JoeMonte](https://seekingalpha.com/user/853722#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101049094) The 'When' is the hard part right now, not the 'If' Reply Like (2) B [BklynDave1](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48786333) Sep 08, 2025, 10:22 PM Premium [Comments (63)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48786333) \| \+ Follow Everyone knows how big AI will be, the timing of the payoff is going to be off just like the dot com sell off. The wheat will be separated from the chaff and we will see what we have. JEPI and some REITS (or dividend payers in general) should displace some of the risk in a portfolio IMO. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/005/149/981/small_pic.png?t=97e1c442d1) [Jim Wallingford](https://seekingalpha.com/author/jim-wallingford) Sep 08, 2025, 7:01 PM Premium [Comments (2.25K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/jim-wallingford) \| \+ Follow What gnaws at me is Bob Farrell's rule \#4: Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Am I being greedy by staying invested? Whispering in my other ear: you don't want to miss what a few analysts are forecasting as a "melt-up" to at least 7000 on theS\&P. David Hunter is calling for 8000\! So pulled in two directions at once. I have 5% trailing stops in place so feel somewhat protected but stops, of course, can be ineffective when stocks crash at the open. Somebody help me! LOL Reply Like B [Blue Goose](https://seekingalpha.com/user/39275576) Sep 08, 2025, 9:00 PM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1319#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (6.73K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/39275576) \| \+ Follow [@Jim Wallingford](https://seekingalpha.com/author/jim-wallingford#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101047586) Net-dollar creation is strong, I'm staying long. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/005/149/981/small_pic.png?t=97e1c442d1) [Jim Wallingford](https://seekingalpha.com/author/jim-wallingford) Sep 10, 2025, 2:07 PM Premium [Comments (2.25K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/jim-wallingford) \| \+ Follow [@Blue Goose](https://seekingalpha.com/user/39275576#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101060763) Yup, me too. "Greed is good!" Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/380/229/small_pic.png?t=342b6fbd22) [Joe4477](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49380229) Sep 08, 2025, 6:27 PM Premium [Comments (139)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49380229) \| \+ Follow "Goldman Sachs forecasts positive outlook for U.S. stocks through 2026" - 9/8/2025 Don't fall for the scare tactics discussed in this article. Use your own good sense and look at earnings growth, foreign and domestic investment in the US, the transformational power of AI and what it will do to productivity. Not all companies will be able to capitalize on these tailwinds. Choose the ones that will. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 08, 2025, 6:32 PM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@Joe4477](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49380229#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101046699) AKA, ignore the fast-deteriorating jobs market, falling home prices, sticky inflation, extreme market valuations, and over \$37T of federal debt, which is rising fast.......It is all about FOMO and AI, Campers\! And Goldman is never WRONG! :-) Reply Like (2) B [BklynDave1](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48786333) Sep 08, 2025, 10:21 PM Premium [Comments (63)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48786333) \| \+ Follow [@Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101047875) the goldman piece actually is what got me reading this article because it scared me. Those d bags would say something like that and backout of everything before the rest of took a massive haircut. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 09, 2025, 7:40 AM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@BklynDave1](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48786333#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101049086) I have several friends that were on or ran trading desks on Wall Street back in the 90s. If Goldman said buy back then, it meant they were selling for clients and sell meant vice versa. Some things don't change Reply Like (1) See More Replies S [SeattleBiotechInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15645092) Sep 08, 2025, 3:48 PM Premium [Comments (8)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15645092) \| \+ Follow Bret you have made your case--thanks for this well-argued article. But as I look to reduce my exposure to US equities, where do you recommend I look to invest the funds? (I just bought a 4-plex residential investment property taking the down payment out of the market but not sure where else to go). Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 08, 2025, 6:14 PM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@SeattleBiotechInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15645092#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101046512) I go rid of my property in mid-2023 for a nice profit. Currently sitting in 25% short term treasuries, 1% in Armageddon trades and the rest in covered call holdings around the few stocks in the market sporting reasonable valuations. Reply Like B [Big Tex 6988](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48783079) Sep 08, 2025, 8:44 AM Premium [Comments (548)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48783079) \| \+ Follow There is no discussion in the article on the roughly \$8 trillion of fiat money pumped into the system over the past 5 years. The real question to me is when do the distortions created by this unprecedented action finally wear off? Reply Like (2) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 08, 2025, 9:14 AM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@Big Tex 6988](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48783079#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101042642) I have covered that many, many times in other articles in recent months Reply Like (1) P [532P799R](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6457561) Sep 07, 2025, 8:56 PM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (16.85K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6457561) \| \+ Follow Excellent data and commentary. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/864/194/small_pic.png?t=a6ed096ff2) [haleakala](https://seekingalpha.com/user/864194) Sep 07, 2025, 2:19 PM Premium [Comments (708)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/864194) \| \+ Follow I bought QQQs at 22 in 2002, and sold in 40s a few years later. Had I held, it would have been 500s today. My 3 points are- 1: Time in market. Y, we’re totally sick of reading it on SA, but it’s the cure for everything. If you’re a boomer, you may not have enough time left for that to be applicable. So tread carefully here. If you’re under 50 and have a job, take up golf or cure cancer, hedge a bit, take some insane profits off the table, but don’t sweat it unless you’re leveraged. 2. The cream rises over time. Which is why QQQ sits near 600. Cap weighting over time is why index funds are the only thing which make sense. Until they don’t. 3. During my investing lifetime, companies ended the old traditional retirement plans like my Dad had. So American life is built on IRAs and 401ks. IOW, Mom, baseball, apple pie, and 401ks. Not in that order. That daily push for retirement means old traditional valuation metrics are probably not valid in a classic sense. How can PEs in the 10-15 range truly exist when the guys pulling weeds from your backyard are putting money into their IRAs, besides everyone else between the coasts. Same for most valuation metrics. So while I agree that companies like Palentir and NVDA will probably have graphs like CSCO did after 2000, the indexes will capture the new cream over time, which will have huge valuations. Perpetual chain letter will occasionally stretch or transiently break, but it will always eventually reconstitute and continue. The American way. Reply Like (2) S [SB Pirate](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48423075) Sep 07, 2025, 7:39 PM [Comments (3.9K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48423075) \| \+ Follow [@haleakala](https://seekingalpha.com/user/864194#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101040523) not always, sometimes there is the straw that puts the camel out of commission. History says eventually can be 500+ years. Hard to know if we are there or there is another round of inflation to come. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/864/194/small_pic.png?t=a6ed096ff2) [haleakala](https://seekingalpha.com/user/864194) Sep 07, 2025, 8:33 PM Premium [Comments (708)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/864194) \| \+ Follow [@SB Pirate](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48423075#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101040700) Y, 3 decades for Nikkei to get back to old high, 12 years for Nasdaq after dot com., 7 yrs for other indices. Not acceptable for most boomers, a non event if under age 50, especially with regular contributions. 500 yrs could be tough, especially w low vol. Reply Like m [mewink](https://seekingalpha.com/user/23767853) Sep 07, 2025, 12:44 PM [Comments (34)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/23767853) \| \+ Follow " Before reality eventual arrives" When is this going to happen, meaning stocks will return to reasonable valuation as defined by Warren Buffett ? There are many stocks overvalued which gone up quite a bit. A good example is Palantir which has an astronomical P/E of over value of 500 and yet it went up quite a bit initially. Reality as defined by Buffett works in a long run but not with active trading. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/029/030/705/small_pic.png?t=cbb8937da4) [luckylalo](https://seekingalpha.com/user/29030705) Sep 08, 2025, 1:27 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (4.22K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/29030705) \| \+ Follow [@mewink](https://seekingalpha.com/user/23767853#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101041425) Revolutionary companies sometimes have astronomical P/Es. But their shareholders still get rich while value investors sit on the sidelines. I've been one of those value investors on occasion. Reply Like (1) M [Murrs700](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7122391) Sep 07, 2025, 10:53 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1177#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.17K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7122391) \| \+ Follow Keep up the good work. It is very hard being a bear in a bubble market. The last 5 years have rewritten the rules of the market for sure. The excess in the stock market is part of what's adding to the inflation problem, debt problem and many others. Additionally it is fueling what I call lottery winner mentality. When people win the lottery they generally go bankrupt at some point after. Whenever anyone gets flushed with cash in a short period of time the same end result almost always happens. The recent market increases are functioning pretty much the same as a massive lottery win. Historically an annual return of 8-10% on most investment was considered very good. Last few years people have come to think 25-45% return is the new normal. Wouldn't that be a nice fantasy, but alas thats all it is. The music will continue until it doesn't. To be fair the dot com bubble started in 1995 and lasted almost 5 years. While you could argue the current bubble started in 2020 with a slight pause in 2022-2023, I peg the start closer to October 2023 which means we could be in the 4th or the 9th inning right now. 5 years is definitely not a standard. Ultimately we will eventually see the market return at a minimum to the highs of 2023. What and when are impossible to know. It's beyond irresponsible to be long anything right now, but also likely not a very good idea to try to short. This is a holding pattern market where the sidelines are generally the best spot for the near term. Reply Like (2) H [HigherHigh](https://seekingalpha.com/user/4113391) Sep 07, 2025, 10:17 AM Premium [Comments (231)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/4113391) \| \+ Follow I don't like the word "bubble". To me that's like saying, "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!" But I also think it's a matter of days before a Correction. I don't like Covered Calls, but I will check into them. Thanks. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/516/233/small_pic.png?t=d3516bb828) [HildaBeast](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49516233) Sep 07, 2025, 2:17 PM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (859)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49516233) \| \+ Follow [@HigherHigh](https://seekingalpha.com/user/4113391#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039297) If I am preaching to the choir, please pardon me. An idea: Although your return will be less than if you were writing the calls yourself, there are good quality, derivative income funds that return between 4 and 10+% in monthy distributions. Although being beaten down by naysayers of late, We have a significant position in JEPI. I currently like its partner fund JEPQ, and I like DIVO as well. The expense ratios are modest on these too. At this point, with "frothy" "bubbles" of "irrational exuberance", I am leaving it up to people who know way more than me to protect me a bit in the downside. I have also started looking into specific CEFs. While the expense rations are high (one, DFP- Dynamic Preferred Income sits at 1.5%), the returns are considerable and the experts are making [@HigherHigh](https://seekingalpha.com/user/4113391#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039297) Reply Like V [Vgananth](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61143267) Sep 07, 2025, 10:00 AM [Comments (1)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61143267) \| \+ Follow Very sensible Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/013/247/902/small_pic.png?t=fbdc67f2b4) [ransim7222](https://seekingalpha.com/user/13247902) Sep 07, 2025, 9:01 AM Premium [Comments (30.73K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/13247902) \| \+ Follow All the predictions of a total demise in global preference for US equities and debt have been wrong. In case anyone missed it, there is a new Axis of Evil developing and the world seems to be worried as we have seen this movie before. And where do a lot of global investors seek safety? The US equity market alone is one-half of the entire world equity market. So US equities and debt 'Climb the wall of worry.' IMO. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/007/221/531/small_pic.png?t=9a07e701ca) [TJ Burke](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7221531) Sep 07, 2025, 8:44 AM Premium [Comments (2.24K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7221531) \| \+ Follow “market has never been valued higher”? Really, never? That’s a bold statement my friend. Reply Like (2) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/small_pic.png?t=8d05f280f3) [Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) Sep 07, 2025, 8:58 AM [Investing Group Leader](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group%20Leader) Premium [Comments (28.65K)](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen) \| \+ Follow [@TJ Burke](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7221531#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037703) Look at the historical metrics Reply Like (2) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/007/221/531/small_pic.png?t=9a07e701ca) [TJ Burke](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7221531) Sep 07, 2025, 11:05 AM Premium [Comments (2.24K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/7221531) \| \+ Follow [@Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101038399) Noted. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/048/609/214/small_pic.png?t=b2e1abddd0) [Algorithmic](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48609214) Sep 07, 2025, 8:16 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1268#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.04K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/48609214) \| \+ Follow [@Bret Jensen](https://seekingalpha.com/author/bret-jensen#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592) Your chart showing the relative size of each countries market valuation was very revealing, especially as a sign of wealth. I always thought that the market was also an indicator of optimism. There is a lot of optimism in the US. AI is optimism. How many technical revolutions has the US been the growth catalyst for? Trains, Planes, Automobiles, computers, now AI. The innovative makers found a place where the fruits of their imagintion are rewarded. Vanderbuilt, Hughes, Ford, Gates, ... Ultra long \$[msft](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592), Long \$[xom](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101037592). Tech and energy is all you need going forward. Reply Like (2) O [Old Line Trader](https://seekingalpha.com/user/30576455) Sep 07, 2025, 8:01 AM Premium [Comments (151)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/30576455) \| \+ Follow Valuations have almost always seemed high over the past 5 years, yet somehow the stock market continues to make higher highs. This, despite the fact that interest rates are still rather high. I’m not sure why you would sell equities when rate cuts are imminent. Dropping bond yields will make equities more attractive in my opinion. Reply Like (2) I [Iamtheproduxt](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49122339) Sep 07, 2025, 6:28 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (294)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49122339) \| \+ Follow the labour market is slowing due to Gen AI making the existing workforce more productive. And this trend should continue and reach another inflection point as robotics + AI becomes widely adopted for manual labour. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/029/030/705/small_pic.png?t=cbb8937da4) [luckylalo](https://seekingalpha.com/user/29030705) Sep 08, 2025, 1:26 AM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (4.22K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/29030705) \| \+ Follow [@Iamtheproduxt](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49122339#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101041424) Tariffs are causing the slowdown more than AI. Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/030/556/small_pic.png?t=0ca2506c76) [Chimpanzee ate my face](https://seekingalpha.com/user/30556) Sep 06, 2025, 8:54 PM [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1241#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.16K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/30556) \| \+ Follow According to Barron's, there is one \$trillion of margin debt hanging over the stock and option markets. That doesn't sound good. [www.barrons.com/...](https://www.barrons.com/articles/borrowing-bet-on-markets-1-trillion-dangerous-414f0843?mod=past_editions "https://www.barrons.com/articles/borrowing-bet-on-markets-1-trillion-dangerous-414f0843?mod=past_editions") Reply Like (3) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/516/233/small_pic.png?t=d3516bb828) [HildaBeast](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49516233) Sep 07, 2025, 2:27 PM Premium [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1026#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (859)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/49516233) \| \+ Follow [@Chimpanzee ate my face](https://seekingalpha.com/user/30556#source=section%3Acomment%7Csection_asset%3Acomment%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_id%3A4820042%7Ccomment_id%3A101039349) Wow. I had not seen that figure. Thanks. Add to that the level of consumer debt: \$1.64T student loans, \$1.66T auto loans and \$1.21T credit card debt and we have approx \$6.5T in debt for which we'll be on the hook for...again. Reply Like Add A Comment Disagree with this article? [Submit your own](https://about.seekingalpha.com/become-an-analyst). To report a factual error in this article, click here . Your feedback matters to us\! ### About SP500 Ticker | Symbol | Last Price | % Chg | |---|---|---| | [SP500](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Csection_asset%3Aabout%7Cline%3A1%7Csymbol%3ASP500) S\&P 500 Index | 6,582.70 | 0\.11% | - 1D - 5D - 1M - 6M - 1Y - 5Y - 10Y ###### Chart Combination chart with 2 data series. View as data table, Chart The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2025-04-02 00:00:00 to 2026-04-02 00:00:00. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 4982.77 to 6978.59. Created with Highcharts 12.5.0 May '25 Aug '25 Nov '25 Feb '26 4,000 6,000 8,000 End of interactive chart. 52 Week High 7,002.28 52 Week Low 4,835.04 Open 6,512.61 Prev. 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View as data table, Chart The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Data ranges from 2026-03-30 09:30:00 to 2026-04-05 00:10:00. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from -1.9 to 3.97. Created with Highcharts 12.5.0 Mar 31 Apr 1 Apr 2 Apr 3 Apr 5 \-5% 0% 5% End of interactive chart. 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Readable Markdown

1. [Home](https://seekingalpha.com/#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) 2. [Market Outlook](https://seekingalpha.com/market-outlook#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) 3. [Today's Market](https://seekingalpha.com/market-outlook/todays-market#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/000/498/952/big_pic.png?io=w36) ## Summary - Markets are trading near all-time highs, despite a clearly deteriorating jobs market. - Two things are primarily powering this rally: the AI revolution and investor hopes for lower interest rates. - A prudent investor slicing the overall market using a variety of valuation lenses can see that the overall market is clearly overvalued at the moment. - This article highlights five key charts that show equities are in significantly overbought territory. - Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. [Learn More »](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_76#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A498952%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CThe%20Biotech%20Forum") ![hand hole needle with stock chart in bubble](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/490025786/image_490025786.jpg?io=getty-c-w750) anankkml/iStock via Getty Images The market continues to trade near all-time highs across all the major indexes. Equities continue to climb despite a clearly slowing jobs market. Job openings in this week's JOLTs [**report**](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-report-august-2025-economy-trump-hiring-bls/) were lower than the number of unemployed individuals in the U.S. This is the first time this has occurred since April of 2021, over four years ago. Before the bell on Friday, the August BLS [**report**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/jobs-report-august-2025.html) showed only 22,000 positions created last month. Less than one-third of the consensus estimate of 75,000. This followed a disappointing July BLS [**reading**](https://www.bing.com/search?q=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=july%202025%20bls%20jobs%20report%20&sc=12-26&sk=&cvid=66B50E580FFA4FB29B56AE8BD7AC1FA3) as well as significant downward [**revisions**](https://thehill.com/business/5431805-us-job-growth-revised-downward/) to May and June jobs numbers. ![Microsoft Cap Ex spending by Quarter](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/1/saupload_Screenshot-2025-07-30-150038.png?io=w640) SEC Filings, Geekwire Yet, the market continues to remain near record levels. The rally appears to be primarily driven by the huge investments tech titans like **Microsoft ([MSFT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), Alphabet ([GOOG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))**, **Amazon ([AMZN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)),** and **Meta Platforms ([META](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/META#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** are making to build massive data centers and other AI-related infrastructure and capabilities, as well as increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will finally start to reduce interest rates starting with the upcoming FOMC in mid-September. So, how overvalued are U.S. equities? Significantly, in my opinion. In today's column, I look at five charts/metrics that should give any prudent person significant pause. ![Global Stock Market Capitlization](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/8/29/saupload_Global-Stock-Market_Terzo_Main.jpg?io=w640) Visual Capitalist The U.S. makes up approximately 4.2% of the global population, yet U.S. equities make up nearly half of all global stock market capitalization. Yes, New York City is the global financial capital, and Silicon Valley is the epicenter of technology, including the AI revolution. The greenback is the global reserve currency, at least for the moment. And the U.S. military is considered the preeminent military force on the planet. However, do U.S. equities deserve a market capitalization over 5.5 times that of the European Union, which has over 100 million more citizens? Does it merit over five times the market capitalization of China with some 1.4 billion people? [![U.S. as percent of global population](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570805539436207_origin.png) U.S. as percent of global population (TheGlobalEconomy.com) I often point out the S\&P 500 ([SP500](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) trades at approximately 3.2 times revenues, which has only been exceeded briefly at the end of the Internet Boom. [![Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570814112951577_origin.png) Historical NASDAQ price to sales ratio (Macrotrends) However, this valuation looks downright attractive compared to the price-to-sales ratio of the NASDAQ ([COMP:IND](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COMP:IND#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)), which is now north of 6.7 times. [![Market Cap To GDP ratio](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570816917953403_origin.png) GuruFocus Then we have the market cap to GDP ratio, also known as the "*Buffett Indicator,"* given the weight the Oracle of Omaha gave to it during his long, illustrious investing career. Is it any wonder why **Berkshire Hathaway ([BRK.B](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BRK.B#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link))** has built up [**record**](https://www.investopedia.com/why-warren-buffett-is-holding-usd325-billion-8772306) cash holdings in recent years before Mr. Buffett's retirement this year? [![S\&P 500 Earnings Yield](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570828213551674_origin.png) S\&P 500 Earnings Yield (Multpl) Let's move over to the S\&P 500 earnings yield (trailing 12-month earnings/S\&P Index), which is just over 3.3%. The yield on the "*risk-free"* 10-year Treasury ([US10Y](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y#hasComeFromMpArticle=true#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) is currently 4.08%. This means not only is there no "*risk premium"* to holding equities, but it is actually negative. [![Arithmetic Mean calculations](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/9/5/498952-17570837946588242_origin.png) Vettafi - August 2025 Finally, we can look at the overall market via several arithmetic means. The chart above was calculated at the end of August. It consists of: - The [**Crestmont Research**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/crestmont-p-e-and-market-valuation-august-2025) P/E ratio. - The [**cyclical P/E ratio**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025) uses the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor. - The [**Q ratio**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025) is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost. - The [**relationship**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-187-above-trend-in-august) of the S\&P composite price to a regression trendline. These calculations show the market has never been valued higher. An investor can believe one of two things about the markets trading at these levels. They can put their faith in the five most dangerous words in the English language, "*It is different this time,"* or acknowledge that the market is trading in extremely overbought territory. I clearly lean towards the latter conclusion. That leaves my portfolio roughly one-quarter allocated in short-term treasuries yielding four percent. And the rest is within [**covered call**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredcall.asp) holdings around the few stocks in this market sporting reasonable valuations. That provides some downside risk mitigation. It also allows me to continue to participate in the rally should it continue before reality eventually arrives. 57\.25K Followers **Analyst’s Disclosure:** I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. **Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Recommended For You ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/050/113/560/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=76f2c1d32f) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/050/662/133/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=61429dbede) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/027/443/183/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=63526f4162) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/048/594/911/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=778fc0473b) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/009/932/311/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=b745033c1e) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/055/355/197/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=eb3c718288) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/063/243/649/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=6a96821296) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/048/200/183/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=89b9b3a7ec) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/055/029/283/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=def3da80e2) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/051/630/113/big_pic.png?io=w36&t=997f333d95)

ML Classification

ML Categories

/Finance		99.8%
/Finance/Investing		99.2%
/Finance/Investing/Stocks_and_Bonds		95.5%

Raw JSON

{
    "/Finance": 998,
    "/Finance/Investing": 992,
    "/Finance/Investing/Stocks_and_Bonds": 955
}

ML Page Types

/Article		99.5%
/Article/News_Update		50.1%

Raw JSON

{
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    "/Article/News_Update": 501
}

ML Intent Types

Informational

99.8%

Raw JSON

{
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}

Content Metadata

Language

Author

Bret Jensen

Publish Time

2025-09-05 17:13:31 (7 months ago)

Original Publish Time

2025-09-05 17:13:31 (7 months ago)

Republished

Word Count (Total)

5,101

Word Count (Content)

944

Links

External Links

Internal Links

319

Technical SEO

Meta Nofollow

Meta Noarchive

Yes

JS Rendered

Yes

Redirect Target

null

Performance

Download Time (ms)

620

TTFB (ms)

614

Download Size (bytes)

164,728

Shard

57 (laksa)

Root Hash

11478393694123815657

Unparsed URL

com,seekingalpha!/article/4820042-5-clear-signs-of-a-market-bubble s443