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Calculated Shard: 57 (from laksa124)

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curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa057.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

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{"found_url":"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance","crawl_time":1775710480,"first_indexed_time":1738071435,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,seekingalpha!\/article\/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance s443","src_root_hash":"11478393694123815657","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"AMD Vs Intel: Battle For CPU Dominance (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha","meta_descriptions":["AMD and Intel are fiercely competing in the x86 CPU market, with AMD gaining market share in 2024 despite Intel's performance improvements."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"photoman\/E+ via Getty Images\nBy\nKhaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA,\nPortfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments &\nAnthony Goh\n, Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments\nIn our\nprevious\ncomparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (\nAMD\n) and Intel Corporation (\nINTC\n), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth.\nWe revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based (\nARM\n) processors such as the rise of Apple’s (\nAAPL\n) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips (\nQCOM\n), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt (\nMSFT\n), Amazon’s Graviton (\nAMZN\n), and Google’s Axion (\nGOOG\n). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors.\nPerformance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap\nWe start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on\nMercury Research\n, which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024.\nMercury Research, Khaveen Investments\nAMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook\/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to\nMercury Research\n, AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users\nreported\nsystem crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has\nreleased\nmicrocode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released \"Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in\nJanuary\n2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024.\nCompany\nProduct Line Launched in 2024\nMarket\nProcess Technology (nm)\nAMD\nRyzen 8000\nDesktop\n4 nm (TSMC)\nRyzen 300 AI Series\nNotebook\n4 nm (TSMC)\nEPYC Turin\nServer\n3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC)\nIntel\nArrow Lake\nDesktop\n3 nm (TSMC)\nRaptor Lake Refresh (14\nth\nGen)\nNotebook\nIntel 7 (10 nm)\nSierra Forrest\nServer\nIntel 3 (7 nm)\nGranite Rapids\nServer\nIntel 3 (7 nm)\nSource: Company Data, Khaveen Investments\nSince our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC)\n3nm\nprocess, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids.\nTo determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations.\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\nCPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2020)\nGen 5 (2021)\nGen 6 (2022)\nGen 7 (2023)\nGen 8 (2024)\nAverage\nIntel Desktop\n25.1%\n44.1%\n22.7%\n34.1%\n8.3%\n26.4%\n25.2%\nAMD Desktop\n0.3%\n54.0%\n2.7%\n40.3%\n48.3%\n-43.9%\n17.0%\nCPU Benchmarks (Laptop)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2020)\nGen 5 (2021)\nGen 6 (2022)\nGen 7 (2023)\nGen 8 (2024)\nAverage\nIntel Mobile\n63.2%\n2.1%\n14.5%\n108.3%\n37.9%\n38.4%\n44.1%\nAMD Mobile\n4.6%\n141.8%\n22.9%\n0.9%\n41.1%\n-18.7%\n32.1%\nCPU Benchmarks (Server)\nGen 1 (2015)\nGen 2 (2017)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2021)\nGen 5 (2023)\nGen 6 (2024)\nAverage\nIntel Server\n-\n45.0%\n19.1%\n78.5%\n61.9%\nN\/A\n42.0%\nAMD Server\n-\n-\n44.9%\n91.2%\n12.6%\n58.0%\n51.7%\nSource: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\nIn Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score.\nIn terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen.\nIn Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at\n196 cores\n.\nOutlook\nSummary Table (Performance)\nAdvantage\nDesktop\nIntel\nLaptop\nIntel\nServer\nAMD\nOverall\nIntel\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nOverall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new\nZen 6\narchitecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is\nreportedly\n“on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of\nPanther Lake\nin H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture.\nOverall CPU Competitiveness\nWe then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below.\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\nCPU Pricing (Desktop)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2020)\nGen 5 (2021)\nGen 6 (2022)\nGen 7 (2023)\nGen 8 (2024)\nAverage Growth\nIntel Desktop\n-2.8%\n9.7%\n3.2%\n3.6%\n3.7%\n0.7%\n4.1%\nAMD Desktop\n-15.2%\n35.4%\n-0.7%\n27.6%\n25.1%\n-48.8%\n3.9%\nCPU Pricing (Laptop)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2020)\nGen 5 (2021)\nGen 6 (2022)\nGen 7 (2023)\nGen 8 (2024)\nAverage Growth\nIntel Mobile\n9.0%\n5.0%\n-7.1%\n20.4%\n-0.8%\n6.7%\n5.5%\nCPU Pricing\nGen 1 (2015)\nGen 2 (2017)\nGen 3 (2019)\nGen 4 (2021)\nGen 5 (2023)\nGen 6 (2024)\nAverage Growth\nIntel Server\n-\n15.7%\n26.5%\n18.6%\n110.3%\n113.6%\n56.9%\nAMD Server\n-\n-\n15.2%\n101.6%\n64.8%\n34.0%\n53.9%\nSource: Company Data, Khaveen Investments\nIn terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024.\nIn the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin.\nCompetitive Factor Score\nNext, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value.\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\nIn terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server.\nOutlook\nSummary Table\nAdvantage\nPricing\nDesktop\nAMD\nServer\nAMD\nOverall\nAMD\nCompetitive Factor\nDesktop\nIntel\nServer\nAMD\nOverall\nTie\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nTherefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x.\nCPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth\nFinally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below.\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\nApple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to\nPC makers\nsuch as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more.\nThen, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below.\nPC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\nPC\nThe chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90%\nmarket share\nof the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments\ndeclined\nby 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac\nshipments\ngrowth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell.\nAccording to\nTechInsights\n, \"by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,\", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly,\nCounterpoint Research\nalso forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that \"the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86\" could further support its market share expansion. In our\nprevious analysis\nof Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs.\nServer\nThe chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market.\nPC and Server Market Growth Outlook\nIn the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs.\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\nTo project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our\nprevious analysis\ntaking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm.\nFor the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market\nprojection\nof a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers.\nSummary Table (Market Share)\nAdvantage\nPC\nAMD\nServer\nAMD\nOverall\nAMD\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nOverall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections.\nMercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments\nRisk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU\nWe see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8%\nshare\nof the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is\nreportedly\nworking with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD.\nValuation\nWe updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning.\nAMD\nKhaveen Investments\nIntel\nKhaveen Investments\nFor AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel.\nWe apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV\/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels.\nVerdict\nSummary\nDesktop\nLaptop\nServer\nOverall\nPerformance\nIntel\nIntel\nAMD\nAMD\nPricing\nAMD\nN\/A\nAMD\nAMD\nCompetitive Factor\nIntel\nN\/A\nAMD\nTie\nCPU Market Share\nAMD\nAMD\nAMD\nAMD\nOverall\nTie\nTie\nAMD\nAMD\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nWe believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as\nStrong Buy\nas both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for\nAMD ($206.24)\nand\nIntel ($25.78)\nfollowing both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness.\n8.23K Followers\nAnalyst’s Disclosure:\nI\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.\nI wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nNo information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer\/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure:\nPast performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. 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[Home](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n2. [Stock Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n3. [Long Ideas](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/long-ideas#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n4. [Tech](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/stock-ideas\/technology#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs)\n# AMD Vs Intel: Battle For CPU Dominance\nJan 28, 2025, 8:36 AM ET[Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAMD), [INTC Stock](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AINTC)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/636\/850\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n[Khaveen Investments](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/khaveen-investments#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Akhaveen-investments%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cauthor_name)\n\n8\\.23K Followers\n\nFollow\n\n- 5\n  \n  Share\n- Save\n- Play(27min)\n- [Comments (26)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance#scroll_comments)\n\n## Summary\n- AMD and Intel are fiercely competing in the x86 CPU market, with AMD gaining market share in 2024 despite Intel's performance improvements.\n- Intel's Arrow Lake CPUs show superior performance in PCs, but AMD's Turin CPUs lead in servers, with AMD expected to maintain its market share.\n- The rise of Arm-based CPUs from companies like Apple and Qualcomm poses a significant threat to x86 CPU market growth for both AMD and Intel.\n- We rate both AMD and Intel as Strong Buy due to their attractive valuations and positive prospects despite the growing competition from Arm-based processors.\n\n![Blank chip on a circuit motherboard for additional text message](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1336265678\/image_1336265678.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)\n\nphotoman\/E+ via Getty Images\n\n*By **Khaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA,** Portfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments & **Anthony Goh**, Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn our [previous](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4679108-amd-vs-intel-who-is-winning-in-cpus) comparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ([AMD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMD \"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.\")) and Intel Corporation ([INTC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTC \"Intel Corporation\")), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth.\n\nWe revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based ([ARM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/ARM \"Arm Holdings plc\")) processors such as the rise of Apple’s ([AAPL](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AAPL \"Apple Inc.\")) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips ([QCOM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/QCOM \"QUALCOMM Incorporated\")), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt ([MSFT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT \"Microsoft Corporation\")), Amazon’s Graviton ([AMZN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMZN \"Amazon.com, Inc.\")), and Google’s Axion ([GOOG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GOOG \"Alphabet Inc.\")). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors.\n\n## **Performance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap**\nWe start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on [Mercury Research](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024.\n\n[![cpu market share](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, Khaveen Investments\n\nAMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook\/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to [Mercury Research](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users [reported](https:\/\/www.pcworld.com\/article\/2415697\/intels-crashing-13th-14th-gen-cpu-nightmare-explained.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) system crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has [released](https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2024\/10\/4\/24262287\/intel-13th-14th-gen-crash-raptor-lake-root-cause-fix?utm_source=chatgpt.com) microcode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released \"Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in [January](https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2024\/1\/8\/24026575\/amd-8000-series-chips-ai-upgrade-ces-2024#:~:text=You%20can%20check%20out%20the,available%20on%20January%2031st%2C%202024.) 2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024.\n\n|   |   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| **Company** | **Product Line Launched in 2024** | **Market** | **Process Technology (nm)** |\n| AMD | Ryzen 8000 | Desktop | 4 nm (TSMC) |\n| Ryzen 300 AI Series | Notebook | 4 nm (TSMC) |   |\n| EPYC Turin | Server | 3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC) |   |\n| Intel | Arrow Lake | Desktop | 3 nm (TSMC) |\n| Raptor Lake Refresh (14th Gen) | Notebook | Intel 7 (10 nm) |   |\n| Sierra Forrest | Server | Intel 3 (7 nm) |   |\n| Granite Rapids | Server | Intel 3 (7 nm) |   |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments*\n\nSince our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC) [3nm](https:\/\/www.pcmag.com\/news\/intel-signals-arrow-lake-desktop-cpus-will-be-built-mainly-using-tsmc) process, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids.\n\nTo determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations.\n\n[![cpu performance](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\n\n|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **CPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2020)** | **Gen 5 (2021)** | **Gen 6 (2022)** | **Gen 7 (2023)** | **Gen 8 (2024)** | **Average** |\n| Intel Desktop | 25\\.1% | 44\\.1% | 22\\.7% | 34\\.1% | 8\\.3% | 26\\.4% | 25\\.2% |\n| AMD Desktop | 0\\.3% | 54\\.0% | 2\\.7% | 40\\.3% | 48\\.3% | \\-43.9% | 17\\.0% |\n| **CPU Benchmarks (Laptop)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2020)** | **Gen 5 (2021)** | **Gen 6 (2022)** | **Gen 7 (2023)** | **Gen 8 (2024)** | **Average** |\n| Intel Mobile | 63\\.2% | 2\\.1% | 14\\.5% | 108\\.3% | 37\\.9% | 38\\.4% | 44\\.1% |\n| AMD Mobile | 4\\.6% | 141\\.8% | 22\\.9% | 0\\.9% | 41\\.1% | \\-18.7% | 32\\.1% |\n| **CPU Benchmarks (Server)** | **Gen 1 (2015)** | **Gen 2 (2017)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2021)** | **Gen 5 (2023)** | **Gen 6 (2024)** | **Average** |\n| Intel Server | \\- | 45\\.0% | 19\\.1% | 78\\.5% | 61\\.9% | N\/A | 42\\.0% |\n| AMD Server | \\- | \\- | 44\\.9% | 91\\.2% | 12\\.6% | 58\\.0% | 51\\.7% |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score.\n\nIn terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen.\n\nIn Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at [196 cores](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amd-announces-3nm-epyc-turin-launching-with-192-cores-and-384-threads-in-second-half-of-2024-54x-faster-than-intel-xeon-in-ai-workload?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\n### **Outlook**\n|   |   |\n|---|---|\n| **Summary Table (Performance)** | **Advantage** |\n| Desktop | Intel |\n| Laptop | Intel |\n| Server | AMD |\n| **Overall** | **Intel** |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nOverall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new [Zen 6](https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Zen_6?utm_source=chatgpt.com) architecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is [reportedly](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/intel-is-sampling-18a-based-panther-lake-with-customers-panther-lake-cpus-are-on-track-for-2h-2025-launch#:~:text=CPUs-,Intel%20is%20sampling%2018A-based%20Panther%20Lake%20with%20customers%20%E2%80%94%20Intel,track%20for%202H%202025%20launch&text=Good%20news%20for%20Intel's%201.8nm-class%20process%20technology.) “on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of [Panther Lake](https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/news\/2025\/01\/07\/news-intel-confirms-panther-lake-first-processor-manufactured-with-18a-node-to-launch-in-2h25\/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20from,the%20second%20half%20of%202025.) in H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture.\n\n## **Overall CPU Competitiveness**\nWe then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below.\n\n[![cpu pricing](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\n\n|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **CPU Pricing (Desktop)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2020)** | **Gen 5 (2021)** | **Gen 6 (2022)** | **Gen 7 (2023)** | **Gen 8 (2024)** | **Average Growth** |\n| Intel Desktop | \\-2.8% | 9\\.7% | 3\\.2% | 3\\.6% | 3\\.7% | 0\\.7% | 4\\.1% |\n| AMD Desktop | \\-15.2% | 35\\.4% | \\-0.7% | 27\\.6% | 25\\.1% | \\-48.8% | 3\\.9% |\n| **CPU Pricing (Laptop)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2020)** | **Gen 5 (2021)** | **Gen 6 (2022)** | **Gen 7 (2023)** | **Gen 8 (2024)** | **Average Growth** |\n| Intel Mobile | 9\\.0% | 5\\.0% | \\-7.1% | 20\\.4% | \\-0.8% | 6\\.7% | 5\\.5% |\n| **CPU Pricing** | **Gen 1 (2015)** | **Gen 2 (2017)** | **Gen 3 (2019)** | **Gen 4 (2021)** | **Gen 5 (2023)** | **Gen 6 (2024)** | **Average Growth** |\n| Intel Server | \\- | 15\\.7% | 26\\.5% | 18\\.6% | 110\\.3% | 113\\.6% | 56\\.9% |\n| AMD Server | \\- | \\- | 15\\.2% | 101\\.6% | 64\\.8% | 34\\.0% | 53\\.9% |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024.\n\nIn the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin.\n\n### **Competitive Factor Score**\nNext, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value.\n\n[![cpu comp factor score](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\n\nIn terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server.\n\n### **Outlook**\n|   |   |\n|---|---|\n| **Summary Table** | **Advantage** |\n| **Pricing** |   |\n| Desktop | AMD |\n| Server | AMD |\n| **Overall** | **AMD** |\n| **Competitive Factor** |   |\n| Desktop | Intel |\n| Server | AMD |\n| **Overall** | **Tie** |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nTherefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x.\n\n## **CPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth**\nFinally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below.\n\n[![arm cpu launches](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\n\nApple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to [PC makers](https:\/\/www.crn.com\/news\/computing\/2024\/7-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-based-ai-pcs-from-hp-dell-and-lenovo?utm_source=chatgpt.com) such as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more.\n\nThen, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below.\n\n### **PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm**\n[![x86 vs arm cpu](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\n### **PC**\nThe chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90% [market share](https:\/\/appleinsider.com\/articles\/23\/04\/10\/apple-silicon-dominates-the-market-for-arm-chips-will-drive-growth?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments [declined](https:\/\/appleinsider.com\/articles\/23\/04\/17\/apples-mac-had-a-tough-first-quarter-of-2023-in-a-bad-overall-pc-market?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac [shipments](https:\/\/www.idc.com\/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53061925) growth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell.\n\nAccording to [TechInsights](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/laptops\/projections-show-that-arm-cpus-will-power-40-percent-of-notebooks-sold-in-2029), \"by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,\", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly, [Counterpoint Research](https:\/\/www.patentlyapple.com\/2023\/02\/apple-currently-owns-90-of-the-arm-based-laptop-market-and-the-trend-will-continue-to-take-market-share-away-from-intel.html) also forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that \"the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86\" could further support its market share expansion. In our [previous analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4716891-arm-holdings-super-growth-but-fairly-valued) of Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs.\n\n### **Server**\nThe chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market.\n\n### **PC and Server Market Growth Outlook**\nIn the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs.\n\n[![cpu market projections](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\n\nTo project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our [previous analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4592724-intel-stock-oversold-on-market-headwinds) taking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm.\n\nFor the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market [projection](https:\/\/www.grandviewresearch.com\/industry-analysis\/arm-based-servers-market-report) of a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers.\n\n|   |   |\n|---|---|\n| **Summary Table (Market Share)** | **Advantage** |\n| PC | AMD |\n| Server | AMD |\n| **Overall** | **AMD** |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nOverall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections.\n\n[![cpu market share forecasts](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments\n## **Risk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU**\nWe see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8% [share](https:\/\/www.techpowerup.com\/329255\/snapdragon-x-failed-qualcomm-sold-720-000-pcs-in-q3-around-0-8-market-share?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is [reportedly](https:\/\/www.pcgamer.com\/hardware\/processors\/nvidia-seems-to-have-just-confirmed-upcoming-arm-and-blackwell-laptop-chips-based-on-its-new-gb10-processor-in-collaboration-with-mediatek\/) working with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD.\n\n## **Valuation**\nWe updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning.\n\n### **AMD**\n[![amd valuation](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png)\n\nKhaveen Investments\n### **Intel**\n[![intel valuation](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png)\n\nKhaveen Investments\n\nFor AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel.\n\nWe apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV\/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels.\n\n## **Verdict**\n|   |   |   |   |   |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **Summary** | **Desktop** | **Laptop** | **Server** | **Overall** |\n| Performance | Intel | Intel | AMD | AMD |\n| Pricing | AMD | N\/A | AMD | AMD |\n| Competitive Factor | Intel | N\/A | AMD | Tie |\n| CPU Market Share | AMD | AMD | AMD | AMD |\n| **Overall** | **Tie** | **Tie** | **AMD** | **AMD** |\n\nClick to enlarge\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nWe believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as *Strong Buy* as both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for *AMD (\\$206.24)* and *Intel (\\$25.78)* following both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness.\n\nThis article was written by\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/049\/636\/850\/big_pic.png?io=w36)\n\n[Khaveen Investments](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/author\/khaveen-investments#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_root%3Akhaveen-investments%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_root%7Cauthor_name)\n\n8\\.23K Followers\n\nFollow\n\nKhaveen Investments is a global Investment Advisory Firm dedicated to serving the investment needs of clients worldwide including high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions. We are a registered investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). We provide comprehensive services ranging from market and security research to business valuation and wealth management. Our flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio with exposure to hundreds of investments across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries. We employ a multifaceted investment approach that integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending three core strategies: global macro, fundamental, and quantitative. Our core expertise lies in disruptive technologies that are reshaping the landscape of modern industries including Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT).www.khaveen.com\n\n**Analyst’s Disclosure:** I\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.   \n  \nNo information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer\/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.\n\n**Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\n- Like\n- [Comments (26)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance#scroll_comments)\n\nTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.\n\nIs this happening to you frequently? Please [report it on our feedback forum.](https:\/\/help.seekingalpha.com\/kb-tickets\/new)\n\nIf you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. 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You can remove the link by deleting the \\$ in the comment.\n\nPublish\n\nT\n\n[TheLazyInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nFeb 04, 2025\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.91K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nIntel still has no answer to AMD's X3D.  \n[www.pcguide.com\/...](https:\/\/www.pcguide.com\/news\/amd-blown-away-by-x3d-processor-demand-ramps-up-production-massively\/ \"https:\/\/www.pcguide.com\/news\/amd-blown-away-by-x3d-processor-demand-ramps-up-production-massively\/\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nT\n\n[TheLazyInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nFeb 03, 2025\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.91K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nPat G rather buys NVDA than INTC?  \n[www.tomshardware.com\/...](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/tech-industry\/artificial-intelligence\/ex-intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger-loads-up-on-nvidia-stock-says-the-markets-reaction-to-deepseek-is-wrong \"https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/tech-industry\/artificial-intelligence\/ex-intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger-loads-up-on-nvidia-stock-says-the-markets-reaction-to-deepseek-is-wrong\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\ns\n\n[stocks for profit](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\nFeb 04, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (7.42K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\nLisa knows how to take down a monopolist. INTC is wobbling. NVDA is next. Pat G just confirmed it. ;-)\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\nD\n\n[DrWhatNoName](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/54679258)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (264)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/54679258)\n\nWho paid for this article? What is even are these \"facts\" you wrote?\n\nRyzen 8000 isnt AMDs new chips, Ryzen 9000 is.Ryzen 8000 was AMDs budget low power chips for small form factor business computers. Ryzen 7000 which you compare them too, was full blown desktop chips. You compare AMDs budget low power chips to there full power chips to determine \"Ryzen 8000 is 50% slower\", completely ignoring the huge lineup for Ryzen 9000 which is AMDs latest full power chips.\n\nWhile we are at it, Arrow lake did not gain 26% in performance over 14th gen. Even intels own publications showed an average of -5% performance over 14th gen, Arrow lakes goal was efficency not performance. Arrow lake is basically Intels Ryzen 8000.\n\nAnd for server your arguement is \"x86 is dying Arm is future\" You relised this is your post about buying intel right? So you completely wrote off their whole server devision, in 1 sentence expecting no one to notice. AMDs EPYC CPUs core count, performance, scalability and gaining market share, you had no way to spin that into a false negative.\n\nYour points about Arm CPUs defeating x86... AMD has Arm CPUs, AMD has made x86 and Arm CPUs since forever. And since they aquired Xillinx have FPGA as well. Soo AMD will be just fine, they can do x86, ARM and FPGA. Intel cant, Intel can only do x86.\n\nYou dont know Intel also does GPUs, which are actually quite good for their price, nothing is top of the line performance, but intel didnt advertise them so, or price them so. But, Intel GPU line this generation are doing quite well, and maybe soon they will reach top of the line performance. You made zero mention about this, even tho it is the 1 possitive that is factual for intel?\n\nAnd all this for a Verdict at the end that is all for AMD and not for Intel.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nj\n\n[jayn](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (4.41K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nIntel has Panther Lake coming with double size NPU, new Celestial GPU with 50% more cores, new CPU cores, new 18a process.\n\nThey have a new 288 core Clearwater Forest coming with 18a process, Power VIA and hybrid bonding.\n\nThey have a new Sierra Forest coming with 288 cores.\n\nThey have a new Granite Rapids D chip coming with integrated vRAN boost.  \n[www.servethehome.com\/...](https:\/\/www.servethehome.com\/intel-xeon-6-soc-for-the-edge-hello-granite-rapids-d\/ \"https:\/\/www.servethehome.com\/intel-xeon-6-soc-for-the-edge-hello-granite-rapids-d\/\")\n\nProbably the biggest jumps are at the end of year with the new Diamond Rapids and Falcon Shores chips. In particular, Diamond Rapids leaks include pcie6, cxl 3.0, avx 10.2, new AMX with FP8 and TF32 data types.\n\nThey also have two 18a fabs opening in AZ.\n\nWe should also get a report soon on the Lunar Lake MSFT Surface models. Is that happening today?\n\n[www.theverge.com\/...](https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2025\/1\/8\/24339517\/microsoft-surface-business-news-intel-lunar-lake-laptops-rumor \"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2025\/1\/8\/24339517\/microsoft-surface-business-news-intel-lunar-lake-laptops-rumor\")\n\n[www.notebookcheck.net\/...](https:\/\/www.notebookcheck.net\/Microsoft-teases-Surface-Laptop-8-and-Surface-Pro-12-releases.953092.0.html \"https:\/\/www.notebookcheck.net\/Microsoft-teases-Surface-Laptop-8-and-Surface-Pro-12-releases.953092.0.html\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nj\n\n[jayn](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (4.41K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nThe new Lunar Lake Surface announcement happened today, by MSFT CEO.\n\n[www.geekwire.com\/...](https:\/\/www.geekwire.com\/2025\/microsofts-new-surface-copilot-pcs-use-intels-lunar-lake-chips-in-push-for-business-adoption\/ \"https:\/\/www.geekwire.com\/2025\/microsofts-new-surface-copilot-pcs-use-intels-lunar-lake-chips-in-push-for-business-adoption\/\")\n\n[x.com\/...](https:\/\/x.com\/Microsoft\/status\/1885000009642336528 \"https:\/\/x.com\/Microsoft\/status\/1885000009642336528\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\ns\n\n[stocks for profit](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\nJan 29, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (7.42K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\nAnother day and another monopolist's backside getting kicked by Lisa Su. INTC is wobbling and NVDA is next.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/053\/110\/822\/small_pic.png?t=c335db0bdb)\n\n[Abruzzo1](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53110822)\n\nJan 29, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (174)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53110822)\n\nComprehensive analysis! Very well researched and presented. Looks like all boats (AMD and INTEL) are poised to benefit from the current state and low valuations if you're a patient investor.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nLiked By Analyst\n\na\n\n[abflyby](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6326781)\n\nJan 29, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (156)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6326781)\n\nReally an Outstanding Effort\\!\n\nI especially liked your highlighting AMD's pricing (elasticity of demand) \"CPU Pricing\" in Desktop and Server pricing and \"CPU Competitive Factor Scores\". I would love to see the notebook comparisons for the same if the data were to come available.\n\nI am impressed by the \"PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm\" as well. Outstanding job\\!\n\nThx\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nLiked By Analyst\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/053\/222\/568\/small_pic.png?t=fb0daf79aa)\n\n[n00bGmr86](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53222568)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (150)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53222568)\n\nSub 15 coming after earnings.  \n9800x3D has put Intel out of the top 10 on Amazon globally...   \nClient segment is going to be an unmitigated disaster.   \nDCAI, well, we don't even know who'll take responsibility for that on the call.   \nAnd with no confirmed CEO, are they even allowed to have a call? Should they be having a call as a public company without a publicly declared face as leader? The interim CEOs don't count. And it's been over a month now since Pat's departure. And no new CEO named. No one wants to try and steer this sinking ship.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(2)\n\nR\n\n[Red355702](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61043555)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Comments (211)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61043555)\n\nINTC would be the last stock I would buy if I wanted to make \\$\\$\\$ on my investments. AMD, PLTR, NVDA--much better in the long run.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(3)\n\nu\n\n[user 1869665](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/186965)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_136#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (348)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/186965)\n\nI was long Intel before Intel 13\/14 gen CPU issue became wide spread problems. Lucky, I sold all my Intel holding before earning report. I was looking for opportunities to buy Intel back at around \\$19-20 level. Unfortunately, the more I looked at various review for the new CPUs released from Intel, the more I am not comfortable to buy back Intel shares. For the current Intel CPU,   \n\\* Lunar Lake is too expensive in terms of cost. It will not be able to gain big market shares as laptops using the Lunar Lake are just too expensive.  \n\\* Arrow Lake performance and efficiency are not as good as original expected. It is in the same performance\/efficiency level as AMD chips, which are manufactured on one gen older TSM node (4nm vs 3nm)   \n\\* Xeon6 probably is the one has slightly advantage over AMD. It may help Intel not losing more server market share.\n\nI do not know where author get data to state that Intel desktop CPU has better performance. We will see the market share data soon as both companies will release earning soon.\n\nIn terms of X86 keep losing market share in PC. One important reason, the most important reason is that Microsoft keeps adding bloatware to its Win10\/Win11. Most of ARM PC market share gain is from Apple, not from Qualcomm because   \n1\\. MacOS is cleaner than Windows.   \n2\\. Apple consumer products ecosystem (iPads, iPhones, airpods and watches) helps Macbook sales.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(4)\n\nj\n\n[jayn](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (4.41K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nIntel made a number of bios updates for Arrow Lake, announced at CES, and there have been a few retests, such as the one in this link.\n\n[www.youtube.com\/...](https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YwQALgE54B4 \"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YwQALgE54B4\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/012\/947\/631\/small_pic.png?t=9022ca76d7)\n\n[tufttugger](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/12947631)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (10.16K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/12947631)\n\nIt’s not much contest right now. AMD has better products nearly across the board. Even where Intel might win on some performance metrics they totally lose in price or reliability, etc. Right now it’s all about how fast AMD can kick Intel out of the best markets they still are in and getting supply up to fill that space.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(6)\n\nj\n\n[jayn](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (4.41K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\n@tufttugger ...Intel showed a number of high-end gaming laptops at CES, paired with NVDA's 5090 laptop GPUs, a couple of them with dual Thunderbolt 5. I guess you're excluding these...\n\n[www.youtube.com\/...](https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XJCEpAarrck \"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XJCEpAarrck\")  \n[www.youtube.com\/...](https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=IEG67JVGfHk \"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=IEG67JVGfHk\")  \n[www.youtube.com\/...](https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wWrKaVwvMTM \"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wWrKaVwvMTM\")\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\ns\n\n[summerock](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/47743456)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Comments (843)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/47743456)\n\nIntel will surpass all of AMD cpu with their 18A node and intel GPU and AI accelerator will slowly catch up. I keep buying every time it dips. I love that it is selling at bankruptcy price bc everyone think it is finished. Long intel.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/012\/947\/631\/small_pic.png?t=9022ca76d7)\n\n[tufttugger](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/12947631)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (10.16K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/12947631)\n\nIf, and that’s a big if, Intel can manage any of those things, it will take years after the management and reliability issues fallout.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(3)\n\n![](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/images\/users_profile\/053\/222\/568\/small_pic.png?t=fb0daf79aa)\n\n[n00bGmr86](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53222568)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (150)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/53222568)\n\nYeah? Then why isn't anyone stepping upto be the CEO of this unstoppable behemoth lol?   \nMore likely it'll slowly bleed out than slowly catch up. Fab constructions are running it dry.   \nIt's not at bankruptcy levels yet. That comes sub 5. Same place AMD was. In 2016s.   \nAnd you think AMD is sleeping while 18A progresses? Just wait until x3d shows up on mobile.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nT\n\n[TheLazyInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nFeb 03, 2025\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.91K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nIntel is doing so well that the CEO was fired.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\ni\n\n[investor5115](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15914092)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Comments (2.99K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15914092)\n\nSome of the strangest & misguided benchmarking charts I’ve ever seen.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(5)\n\nW\n\n[Wulfen](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61719265)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Comments (22)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/61719265)\n\nIntel has an advantage in Desktop CPUs? Sorry, but I have had to laugh. AMD was better 2023 already. But 2024 Intel lost the performance race by a large margin now\\!\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(6)\n\nT\n\n[TheLazyInvestor](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nFeb 03, 2025\n\n[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (1.91K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/18002292)\n\nIntel \"achievements\" in 2024:  \n\\- Sold entire stake in ARM (gotta need that cash)  \n\\- Selling Altera  \n\\- Full year losses (GAAP and non-GAAP)  \n\\- Stopped dividends  \n\\- Dropped from DJIA  \n\\- CEO fired\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nP\n\n[PCARDAD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/57646593)\n\nJan 28, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/alpha-picks#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (7)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/57646593)\n\nAMD is dominating the gaming desktop market these days...with 9 of the top 10 fastest CPU's according to Tom's Hardware.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(5)\n\nj\n\n[jayn](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (4.41K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/6589671)\n\nAMD has never broken into the business laptops at my work... vPRO was apparently the determining factor during the pandemic . Any desktops were switched to use VMs at the same time and that has remained.\n\nIntel still has a tight relationship with Dell, and Intel has the EVO certification that guarantees a certain quality level across multiple OEMs.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\ns\n\n[stocks for profit](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)\n\n[Comments (7.42K)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/15842082)\n\n\\- \"Intel still has a tight relationship with Dell...\"\n\nBest friend money can buy. Was \\$1B\/yr back in the day. How much is it now?\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nP\n\n[PCARDAD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/57646593)\n\nJan 30, 2025\n\n[Premium](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/alpha-picks#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group)\n\n[Comments (7)](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/user\/57646593)\n\nI can't comment outside my tiny corner of the world but I have built a gaming rig every year for the past 20 years and this is the first year I didn't pick Intel - and Microcenter will only sell one AMD chip per address (if they even have them in stock) due to demand. Just my own observation...I bought 50 shs for sh1ts and giggles.\n\nReply\n\nLike\n\n(1)\n\nAdd A Comment\n\nDisagree with this article? [Submit your own](https:\/\/about.seekingalpha.com\/become-an-analyst).\n\nTo report a factual error in this article,\n\nclick here\n\n.\n\nYour feedback matters to us\\!","attrs_readable_markdown":"![Blank chip on a circuit motherboard for additional text message](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1336265678\/image_1336265678.jpg?io=getty-c-w750)\n\nphotoman\/E+ via Getty Images\n\n*By **Khaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA,** Portfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments & **Anthony Goh**, Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn our [previous](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4679108-amd-vs-intel-who-is-winning-in-cpus) comparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ([AMD](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMD \"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.\")) and Intel Corporation ([INTC](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/INTC \"Intel Corporation\")), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth.\n\nWe revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based ([ARM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/ARM \"Arm Holdings plc\")) processors such as the rise of Apple’s ([AAPL](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AAPL \"Apple Inc.\")) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips ([QCOM](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/QCOM \"QUALCOMM Incorporated\")), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt ([MSFT](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/MSFT \"Microsoft Corporation\")), Amazon’s Graviton ([AMZN](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/AMZN \"Amazon.com, Inc.\")), and Google’s Axion ([GOOG](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GOOG \"Alphabet Inc.\")). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors.\n\n## **Performance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap**\nWe start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on [Mercury Research](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024.\n\n[![cpu market share](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, Khaveen Investments\n\nAMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook\/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to [Mercury Research](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users [reported](https:\/\/www.pcworld.com\/article\/2415697\/intels-crashing-13th-14th-gen-cpu-nightmare-explained.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) system crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has [released](https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2024\/10\/4\/24262287\/intel-13th-14th-gen-crash-raptor-lake-root-cause-fix?utm_source=chatgpt.com) microcode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released \"Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in [January](https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2024\/1\/8\/24026575\/amd-8000-series-chips-ai-upgrade-ces-2024#:~:text=You%20can%20check%20out%20the,available%20on%20January%2031st%2C%202024.) 2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024.\n\n**Company** **Product Line Launched in 2024** **Market** **Process Technology (nm)** AMD Ryzen 8000 Desktop 4 nm (TSMC) Ryzen 300 AI Series Notebook 4 nm (TSMC)   EPYC Turin Server 3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC)   Intel Arrow Lake Desktop 3 nm (TSMC) Raptor Lake Refresh (14th Gen) Notebook Intel 7 (10 nm)   Sierra Forrest Server Intel 3 (7 nm)   Granite Rapids Server Intel 3 (7 nm)\n\n*Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments*\n\nSince our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC) [3nm](https:\/\/www.pcmag.com\/news\/intel-signals-arrow-lake-desktop-cpus-will-be-built-mainly-using-tsmc) process, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids.\n\nTo determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations.\n\n[![cpu performance](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\n\n**CPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2020)** **Gen 5 (2021)** **Gen 6 (2022)** **Gen 7 (2023)** **Gen 8 (2024)** **Average** Intel Desktop 25\\.1% 44\\.1% 22\\.7% 34\\.1% 8\\.3% 26\\.4% 25\\.2% AMD Desktop 0\\.3% 54\\.0% 2\\.7% 40\\.3% 48\\.3% \\-43.9% 17\\.0% **CPU Benchmarks (Laptop)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2020)** **Gen 5 (2021)** **Gen 6 (2022)** **Gen 7 (2023)** **Gen 8 (2024)** **Average** Intel Mobile 63\\.2% 2\\.1% 14\\.5% 108\\.3% 37\\.9% 38\\.4% 44\\.1% AMD Mobile 4\\.6% 141\\.8% 22\\.9% 0\\.9% 41\\.1% \\-18.7% 32\\.1% **CPU Benchmarks (Server)** **Gen 1 (2015)** **Gen 2 (2017)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2021)** **Gen 5 (2023)** **Gen 6 (2024)** **Average** Intel Server \\- 45\\.0% 19\\.1% 78\\.5% 61\\.9% N\/A 42\\.0% AMD Server \\- \\- 44\\.9% 91\\.2% 12\\.6% 58\\.0% 51\\.7%\n\n*Source: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score.\n\nIn terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen.\n\nIn Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at [196 cores](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/amd-announces-3nm-epyc-turin-launching-with-192-cores-and-384-threads-in-second-half-of-2024-54x-faster-than-intel-xeon-in-ai-workload?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\n### **Outlook**\n**Summary Table (Performance)** **Advantage** Desktop Intel Laptop Intel Server AMD **Overall** **Intel**\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nOverall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new [Zen 6](https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Zen_6?utm_source=chatgpt.com) architecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is [reportedly](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/pc-components\/cpus\/intel-is-sampling-18a-based-panther-lake-with-customers-panther-lake-cpus-are-on-track-for-2h-2025-launch#:~:text=CPUs-,Intel%20is%20sampling%2018A-based%20Panther%20Lake%20with%20customers%20%E2%80%94%20Intel,track%20for%202H%202025%20launch&text=Good%20news%20for%20Intel's%201.8nm-class%20process%20technology.) “on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of [Panther Lake](https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/news\/2025\/01\/07\/news-intel-confirms-panther-lake-first-processor-manufactured-with-18a-node-to-launch-in-2h25\/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20from,the%20second%20half%20of%202025.) in H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture.\n\n## **Overall CPU Competitiveness**\nWe then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below.\n\n[![cpu pricing](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\n\n**CPU Pricing (Desktop)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2020)** **Gen 5 (2021)** **Gen 6 (2022)** **Gen 7 (2023)** **Gen 8 (2024)** **Average Growth** Intel Desktop \\-2.8% 9\\.7% 3\\.2% 3\\.6% 3\\.7% 0\\.7% 4\\.1% AMD Desktop \\-15.2% 35\\.4% \\-0.7% 27\\.6% 25\\.1% \\-48.8% 3\\.9% **CPU Pricing (Laptop)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2020)** **Gen 5 (2021)** **Gen 6 (2022)** **Gen 7 (2023)** **Gen 8 (2024)** **Average Growth** Intel Mobile 9\\.0% 5\\.0% \\-7.1% 20\\.4% \\-0.8% 6\\.7% 5\\.5% **CPU Pricing** **Gen 1 (2015)** **Gen 2 (2017)** **Gen 3 (2019)** **Gen 4 (2021)** **Gen 5 (2023)** **Gen 6 (2024)** **Average Growth** Intel Server \\- 15\\.7% 26\\.5% 18\\.6% 110\\.3% 113\\.6% 56\\.9% AMD Server \\- \\- 15\\.2% 101\\.6% 64\\.8% 34\\.0% 53\\.9%\n\n*Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments*\n\nIn terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024.\n\nIn the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin.\n\n### **Competitive Factor Score**\nNext, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value.\n\n[![cpu comp factor score](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments\n\nIn terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server.\n\n### **Outlook**\n**Summary Table** **Advantage** **Pricing**   Desktop AMD Server AMD **Overall** **AMD** **Competitive Factor**   Desktop Intel Server AMD **Overall** **Tie**\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nTherefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x.\n\n## **CPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth**\nFinally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below.\n\n[![arm cpu launches](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png)\n\nCompany Data, Khaveen Investments\n\nApple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to [PC makers](https:\/\/www.crn.com\/news\/computing\/2024\/7-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-based-ai-pcs-from-hp-dell-and-lenovo?utm_source=chatgpt.com) such as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more.\n\nThen, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below.\n\n### **PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm**\n[![x86 vs arm cpu](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\n### **PC**\nThe chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90% [market share](https:\/\/appleinsider.com\/articles\/23\/04\/10\/apple-silicon-dominates-the-market-for-arm-chips-will-drive-growth?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments [declined](https:\/\/appleinsider.com\/articles\/23\/04\/17\/apples-mac-had-a-tough-first-quarter-of-2023-in-a-bad-overall-pc-market?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac [shipments](https:\/\/www.idc.com\/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53061925) growth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell.\n\nAccording to [TechInsights](https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/laptops\/projections-show-that-arm-cpus-will-power-40-percent-of-notebooks-sold-in-2029), \"by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,\", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly, [Counterpoint Research](https:\/\/www.patentlyapple.com\/2023\/02\/apple-currently-owns-90-of-the-arm-based-laptop-market-and-the-trend-will-continue-to-take-market-share-away-from-intel.html) also forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that \"the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86\" could further support its market share expansion. In our [previous analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4716891-arm-holdings-super-growth-but-fairly-valued) of Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs.\n\n### **Server**\nThe chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market.\n\n### **PC and Server Market Growth Outlook**\nIn the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs.\n\n[![cpu market projections](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments\n\nTo project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our [previous analysis](https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4592724-intel-stock-oversold-on-market-headwinds) taking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm.\n\nFor the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market [projection](https:\/\/www.grandviewresearch.com\/industry-analysis\/arm-based-servers-market-report) of a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers.\n\n**Summary Table (Market Share)** **Advantage** PC AMD Server AMD **Overall** **AMD**\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nOverall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections.\n\n[![cpu market share forecasts](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png)\n\nMercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments\n## **Risk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU**\nWe see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8% [share](https:\/\/www.techpowerup.com\/329255\/snapdragon-x-failed-qualcomm-sold-720-000-pcs-in-q3-around-0-8-market-share?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is [reportedly](https:\/\/www.pcgamer.com\/hardware\/processors\/nvidia-seems-to-have-just-confirmed-upcoming-arm-and-blackwell-laptop-chips-based-on-its-new-gb10-processor-in-collaboration-with-mediatek\/) working with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD.\n\n## **Valuation**\nWe updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning.\n\n### **AMD**\n[![amd valuation](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png)\n\nKhaveen Investments\n### **Intel**\n[![intel valuation](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png?io=w640)](https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/26\/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png)\n\nKhaveen Investments\n\nFor AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel.\n\nWe apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV\/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels.\n\n## **Verdict**\n**Summary** **Desktop** **Laptop** **Server** **Overall** Performance Intel Intel AMD AMD Pricing AMD N\/A AMD AMD Competitive Factor Intel N\/A AMD Tie CPU Market Share AMD AMD AMD AMD **Overall** **Tie** **Tie** **AMD** **AMD**\n\n*Source: Khaveen Investments*\n\nWe believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as *Strong Buy* as both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for *AMD (\\$206.24)* and *Intel (\\$25.78)* following both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness.\n\n8\\.23K Followers\n\n**Analyst’s Disclosure:** I\/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\n\nNo information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer\/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.\n\n**Seeking Alpha's Disclosure:** Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.","meta_canonical":null}

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Boilerpipe Text	photoman/E+ via Getty Images By Khaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA, Portfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments & Anthony Goh , Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments In our previous comparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) and Intel Corporation ( INTC ), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth. We revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based ( ARM ) processors such as the rise of Apple’s ( AAPL ) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips ( QCOM ), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt ( MSFT ), Amazon’s Graviton ( AMZN ), and Google’s Axion ( GOOG ). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors. Performance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap We start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on Mercury Research , which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024. Mercury Research, Khaveen Investments AMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to Mercury Research , AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users reported system crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has released microcode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released "Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in January 2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024. Company Product Line Launched in 2024 Market Process Technology (nm) AMD Ryzen 8000 Desktop 4 nm (TSMC) Ryzen 300 AI Series Notebook 4 nm (TSMC) EPYC Turin Server 3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC) Intel Arrow Lake Desktop 3 nm (TSMC) Raptor Lake Refresh (14 th Gen) Notebook Intel 7 (10 nm) Sierra Forrest Server Intel 3 (7 nm) Granite Rapids Server Intel 3 (7 nm) Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments Since our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC) 3nm process, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. To determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations. Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments CPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Intel Desktop 25.1% 44.1% 22.7% 34.1% 8.3% 26.4% 25.2% AMD Desktop 0.3% 54.0% 2.7% 40.3% 48.3% -43.9% 17.0% CPU Benchmarks (Laptop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Intel Mobile 63.2% 2.1% 14.5% 108.3% 37.9% 38.4% 44.1% AMD Mobile 4.6% 141.8% 22.9% 0.9% 41.1% -18.7% 32.1% CPU Benchmarks (Server) Gen 1 (2015) Gen 2 (2017) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2021) Gen 5 (2023) Gen 6 (2024) Average Intel Server - 45.0% 19.1% 78.5% 61.9% N/A 42.0% AMD Server - - 44.9% 91.2% 12.6% 58.0% 51.7% Source: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score. In terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen. In Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at 196 cores . Outlook Summary Table (Performance) Advantage Desktop Intel Laptop Intel Server AMD Overall Intel Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new Zen 6 architecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is reportedly “on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of Panther Lake in H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture. Overall CPU Competitiveness We then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below. Company Data, Khaveen Investments CPU Pricing (Desktop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Growth Intel Desktop -2.8% 9.7% 3.2% 3.6% 3.7% 0.7% 4.1% AMD Desktop -15.2% 35.4% -0.7% 27.6% 25.1% -48.8% 3.9% CPU Pricing (Laptop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Growth Intel Mobile 9.0% 5.0% -7.1% 20.4% -0.8% 6.7% 5.5% CPU Pricing Gen 1 (2015) Gen 2 (2017) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2021) Gen 5 (2023) Gen 6 (2024) Average Growth Intel Server - 15.7% 26.5% 18.6% 110.3% 113.6% 56.9% AMD Server - - 15.2% 101.6% 64.8% 34.0% 53.9% Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments In terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024. In the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin. Competitive Factor Score Next, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value. Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server. Outlook Summary Table Advantage Pricing Desktop AMD Server AMD Overall AMD Competitive Factor Desktop Intel Server AMD Overall Tie Source: Khaveen Investments Therefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x. CPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth Finally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below. Company Data, Khaveen Investments Apple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to PC makers such as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more. Then, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below. PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments PC The chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90% market share of the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments declined by 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac shipments growth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell. According to TechInsights , "by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly, Counterpoint Research also forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that "the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86" could further support its market share expansion. In our previous analysis of Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs. Server The chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market. PC and Server Market Growth Outlook In the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs. Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments To project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our previous analysis taking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm. For the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market projection of a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers. Summary Table (Market Share) Advantage PC AMD Server AMD Overall AMD Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections. Mercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments Risk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU We see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8% share of the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is reportedly working with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD. Valuation We updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning. AMD Khaveen Investments Intel Khaveen Investments For AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel. We apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels. Verdict Summary Desktop Laptop Server Overall Performance Intel Intel AMD AMD Pricing AMD N/A AMD AMD Competitive Factor Intel N/A AMD Tie CPU Market Share AMD AMD AMD AMD Overall Tie Tie AMD AMD Source: Khaveen Investments We believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as Strong Buy as both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for AMD ($206.24) and Intel ($25.78) following both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness. 8.23K Followers Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. No information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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[Home](https://seekingalpha.com/#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) 2. [Stock Ideas](https://seekingalpha.com/stock-ideas#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) 3. [Long Ideas](https://seekingalpha.com/stock-ideas/long-ideas#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) 4. [Tech](https://seekingalpha.com/stock-ideas/technology#source=first_level_url%3Aarticle%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection%3Apage_breadcrumbs) # AMD Vs Intel: Battle For CPU Dominance Jan 28, 2025, 8:36 AM ET[Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AAMD), [INTC Stock](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC#source=section%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csymbol%3AINTC) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/636/850/big_pic.png?io=w36) [Khaveen Investments](https://seekingalpha.com/author/khaveen-investments#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_brief%3Akhaveen-investments%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_brief%7Cauthor_name) 8\.23K Followers Follow - 5 Share - Save - Play(27min) - [Comments (26)](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752502-amd-vs-intel-battle-for-cpu-dominance#scroll_comments) ## Summary - AMD and Intel are fiercely competing in the x86 CPU market, with AMD gaining market share in 2024 despite Intel's performance improvements. - Intel's Arrow Lake CPUs show superior performance in PCs, but AMD's Turin CPUs lead in servers, with AMD expected to maintain its market share. - The rise of Arm-based CPUs from companies like Apple and Qualcomm poses a significant threat to x86 CPU market growth for both AMD and Intel. - We rate both AMD and Intel as Strong Buy due to their attractive valuations and positive prospects despite the growing competition from Arm-based processors. ![Blank chip on a circuit motherboard for additional text message](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1336265678/image_1336265678.jpg?io=getty-c-w750) photoman/E+ via Getty Images By Khaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA,* Portfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments & Anthony Goh, Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments* In our [previous](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679108-amd-vs-intel-who-is-winning-in-cpus) comparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ([AMD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.")) and Intel Corporation ([INTC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC "Intel Corporation")), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth. We revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based ([ARM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARM "Arm Holdings plc")) processors such as the rise of Apple’s ([AAPL](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL "Apple Inc.")) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips ([QCOM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QCOM "QUALCOMM Incorporated")), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt ([MSFT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT "Microsoft Corporation")), Amazon’s Graviton ([AMZN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN "Amazon.com, Inc.")), and Google’s Axion ([GOOG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG "Alphabet Inc.")). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors. ## Performance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap We start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on [Mercury Research](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024. [![cpu market share](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png) Mercury Research, Khaveen Investments AMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to [Mercury Research](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users [reported](https://www.pcworld.com/article/2415697/intels-crashing-13th-14th-gen-cpu-nightmare-explained.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) system crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/4/24262287/intel-13th-14th-gen-crash-raptor-lake-root-cause-fix?utm_source=chatgpt.com) microcode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released "Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in [January](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/8/24026575/amd-8000-series-chips-ai-upgrade-ces-2024#:~:text=You%20can%20check%20out%20the,available%20on%20January%2031st%2C%202024.) 2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024. \| \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| Company \| Product Line Launched in 2024 \| Market \| Process Technology (nm) \| \| AMD \| Ryzen 8000 \| Desktop \| 4 nm (TSMC) \| \| Ryzen 300 AI Series \| Notebook \| 4 nm (TSMC) \| \| \| EPYC Turin \| Server \| 3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC) \| \| \| Intel \| Arrow Lake \| Desktop \| 3 nm (TSMC) \| \| Raptor Lake Refresh (14th Gen) \| Notebook \| Intel 7 (10 nm) \| \| \| Sierra Forrest \| Server \| Intel 3 (7 nm) \| \| \| Granite Rapids \| Server \| Intel 3 (7 nm) \| \| Click to enlarge Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments Since our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC) [3nm](https://www.pcmag.com/news/intel-signals-arrow-lake-desktop-cpus-will-be-built-mainly-using-tsmc) process, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. To determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations. [![cpu performance](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png) Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| CPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2020) \| Gen 5 (2021) \| Gen 6 (2022) \| Gen 7 (2023) \| Gen 8 (2024) \| Average \| \| Intel Desktop \| 25\.1% \| 44\.1% \| 22\.7% \| 34\.1% \| 8\.3% \| 26\.4% \| 25\.2% \| \| AMD Desktop \| 0\.3% \| 54\.0% \| 2\.7% \| 40\.3% \| 48\.3% \| \-43.9% \| 17\.0% \| \| CPU Benchmarks (Laptop) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2020) \| Gen 5 (2021) \| Gen 6 (2022) \| Gen 7 (2023) \| Gen 8 (2024) \| Average \| \| Intel Mobile \| 63\.2% \| 2\.1% \| 14\.5% \| 108\.3% \| 37\.9% \| 38\.4% \| 44\.1% \| \| AMD Mobile \| 4\.6% \| 141\.8% \| 22\.9% \| 0\.9% \| 41\.1% \| \-18.7% \| 32\.1% \| \| CPU Benchmarks (Server) \| Gen 1 (2015) \| Gen 2 (2017) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2021) \| Gen 5 (2023) \| Gen 6 (2024) \| Average \| \| Intel Server \| \- \| 45\.0% \| 19\.1% \| 78\.5% \| 61\.9% \| N/A \| 42\.0% \| \| AMD Server \| \- \| \- \| 44\.9% \| 91\.2% \| 12\.6% \| 58\.0% \| 51\.7% \| Click to enlarge Source: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score. In terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen. In Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at [196 cores](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amd-announces-3nm-epyc-turin-launching-with-192-cores-and-384-threads-in-second-half-of-2024-54x-faster-than-intel-xeon-in-ai-workload?utm_source=chatgpt.com). ### Outlook \| \| \| \|---\|---\| \| Summary Table (Performance) \| Advantage \| \| Desktop \| Intel \| \| Laptop \| Intel \| \| Server \| AMD \| \| Overall \| Intel \| Click to enlarge Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new [Zen 6](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zen_6?utm_source=chatgpt.com) architecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-is-sampling-18a-based-panther-lake-with-customers-panther-lake-cpus-are-on-track-for-2h-2025-launch#:~:text=CPUs-,Intel%20is%20sampling%2018A-based%20Panther%20Lake%20with%20customers%20%E2%80%94%20Intel,track%20for%202H%202025%20launch&text=Good%20news%20for%20Intel's%201.8nm-class%20process%20technology.) “on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of [Panther Lake](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/01/07/news-intel-confirms-panther-lake-first-processor-manufactured-with-18a-node-to-launch-in-2h25/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20from,the%20second%20half%20of%202025.) in H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture. ## Overall CPU Competitiveness We then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below. [![cpu pricing](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png) Company Data, Khaveen Investments \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| CPU Pricing (Desktop) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2020) \| Gen 5 (2021) \| Gen 6 (2022) \| Gen 7 (2023) \| Gen 8 (2024) \| Average Growth \| \| Intel Desktop \| \-2.8% \| 9\.7% \| 3\.2% \| 3\.6% \| 3\.7% \| 0\.7% \| 4\.1% \| \| AMD Desktop \| \-15.2% \| 35\.4% \| \-0.7% \| 27\.6% \| 25\.1% \| \-48.8% \| 3\.9% \| \| CPU Pricing (Laptop) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2020) \| Gen 5 (2021) \| Gen 6 (2022) \| Gen 7 (2023) \| Gen 8 (2024) \| Average Growth \| \| Intel Mobile \| 9\.0% \| 5\.0% \| \-7.1% \| 20\.4% \| \-0.8% \| 6\.7% \| 5\.5% \| \| CPU Pricing \| Gen 1 (2015) \| Gen 2 (2017) \| Gen 3 (2019) \| Gen 4 (2021) \| Gen 5 (2023) \| Gen 6 (2024) \| Average Growth \| \| Intel Server \| \- \| 15\.7% \| 26\.5% \| 18\.6% \| 110\.3% \| 113\.6% \| 56\.9% \| \| AMD Server \| \- \| \- \| 15\.2% \| 101\.6% \| 64\.8% \| 34\.0% \| 53\.9% \| Click to enlarge Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments In terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024. In the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin. ### Competitive Factor Score Next, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value. [![cpu comp factor score](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png) Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server. ### Outlook \| \| \| \|---\|---\| \| Summary Table \| Advantage \| \| Pricing \| \| \| Desktop \| AMD \| \| Server \| AMD \| \| Overall \| AMD \| \| Competitive Factor \| \| \| Desktop \| Intel \| \| Server \| AMD \| \| Overall \| Tie \| Click to enlarge Source: Khaveen Investments Therefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x. ## CPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth Finally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below. [![arm cpu launches](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png) Company Data, Khaveen Investments Apple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to [PC makers](https://www.crn.com/news/computing/2024/7-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-based-ai-pcs-from-hp-dell-and-lenovo?utm_source=chatgpt.com) such as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more. Then, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below. ### PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm [![x86 vs arm cpu](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png) Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments ### PC The chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90% [market share](https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/04/10/apple-silicon-dominates-the-market-for-arm-chips-will-drive-growth?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments [declined](https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/04/17/apples-mac-had-a-tough-first-quarter-of-2023-in-a-bad-overall-pc-market?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac [shipments](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53061925) growth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell. According to [TechInsights](https://www.tomshardware.com/laptops/projections-show-that-arm-cpus-will-power-40-percent-of-notebooks-sold-in-2029), "by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly, [Counterpoint Research](https://www.patentlyapple.com/2023/02/apple-currently-owns-90-of-the-arm-based-laptop-market-and-the-trend-will-continue-to-take-market-share-away-from-intel.html) also forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that "the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86" could further support its market share expansion. In our [previous analysis](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716891-arm-holdings-super-growth-but-fairly-valued) of Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs. ### Server The chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market. ### PC and Server Market Growth Outlook In the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs. [![cpu market projections](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png) Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments To project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our [previous analysis](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592724-intel-stock-oversold-on-market-headwinds) taking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm. For the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market [projection](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/arm-based-servers-market-report) of a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers. \| \| \| \|---\|---\| \| Summary Table (Market Share) \| Advantage \| \| PC \| AMD \| \| Server \| AMD \| \| Overall \| AMD \| Click to enlarge Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections. [![cpu market share forecasts](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png) Mercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments ## Risk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU We see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8% [share](https://www.techpowerup.com/329255/snapdragon-x-failed-qualcomm-sold-720-000-pcs-in-q3-around-0-8-market-share?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is [reportedly](https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/processors/nvidia-seems-to-have-just-confirmed-upcoming-arm-and-blackwell-laptop-chips-based-on-its-new-gb10-processor-in-collaboration-with-mediatek/) working with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD. ## Valuation We updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning. ### AMD [![amd valuation](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png) Khaveen Investments ### Intel [![intel valuation](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png) Khaveen Investments For AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel. We apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels. ## Verdict \| \| \| \| \| \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| Summary \| Desktop \| Laptop \| Server \| Overall \| \| Performance \| Intel \| Intel \| AMD \| AMD \| \| Pricing \| AMD \| N/A \| AMD \| AMD \| \| Competitive Factor \| Intel \| N/A \| AMD \| Tie \| \| CPU Market Share \| AMD \| AMD \| AMD \| AMD \| \| Overall \| Tie \| Tie \| AMD \| AMD \| Click to enlarge Source: Khaveen Investments We believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as Strong Buy as both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for AMD (\$206.24) and Intel (\$25.78) following both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness. This article was written by ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/636/850/big_pic.png?io=w36) [Khaveen Investments](https://seekingalpha.com/author/khaveen-investments#source=url_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_root%3Akhaveen-investments%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_root%7Cauthor_name) 8\.23K Followers Follow Khaveen Investments is a global Investment Advisory Firm dedicated to serving the investment needs of clients worldwide including high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions. We are a registered investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). We provide comprehensive services ranging from market and security research to business valuation and wealth management. Our flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio with exposure to hundreds of investments across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries. We employ a multifaceted investment approach that integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending three core strategies: global macro, fundamental, and quantitative. Our core expertise lies in disruptive technologies that are reshaping the landscape of modern industries including Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT).www.khaveen.com Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. No information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. 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Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. ![](https://seekingalpha.com/_sa_track/samw/noscript?noscript[disabled]=true) Search field Entering text into the input field will update the search result below Entering text into the input field will update the search result below ### Recommended For You ### Comments (26) Newest If you type a company or ETF ticker symbol in capital letters we will automatically link to the symbol page. You can remove the link by deleting the \$ in the comment. Publish T [TheLazyInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Feb 04, 2025 [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.91K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Intel still has no answer to AMD's X3D. [www.pcguide.com/...](https://www.pcguide.com/news/amd-blown-away-by-x3d-processor-demand-ramps-up-production-massively/ "https://www.pcguide.com/news/amd-blown-away-by-x3d-processor-demand-ramps-up-production-massively/") Reply Like (1) T [TheLazyInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Feb 03, 2025 [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.91K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Pat G rather buys NVDA than INTC? [www.tomshardware.com/...](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ex-intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger-loads-up-on-nvidia-stock-says-the-markets-reaction-to-deepseek-is-wrong "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ex-intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger-loads-up-on-nvidia-stock-says-the-markets-reaction-to-deepseek-is-wrong") Reply Like (1) s [stocks for profit](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) Feb 04, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (7.42K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) Lisa knows how to take down a monopolist. INTC is wobbling. NVDA is next. Pat G just confirmed it. ;-) Reply Like D [DrWhatNoName](https://seekingalpha.com/user/54679258) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (264)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/54679258) Who paid for this article? What is even are these "facts" you wrote? Ryzen 8000 isnt AMDs new chips, Ryzen 9000 is.Ryzen 8000 was AMDs budget low power chips for small form factor business computers. Ryzen 7000 which you compare them too, was full blown desktop chips. You compare AMDs budget low power chips to there full power chips to determine "Ryzen 8000 is 50% slower", completely ignoring the huge lineup for Ryzen 9000 which is AMDs latest full power chips. While we are at it, Arrow lake did not gain 26% in performance over 14th gen. Even intels own publications showed an average of -5% performance over 14th gen, Arrow lakes goal was efficency not performance. Arrow lake is basically Intels Ryzen 8000. And for server your arguement is "x86 is dying Arm is future" You relised this is your post about buying intel right? So you completely wrote off their whole server devision, in 1 sentence expecting no one to notice. AMDs EPYC CPUs core count, performance, scalability and gaining market share, you had no way to spin that into a false negative. Your points about Arm CPUs defeating x86... AMD has Arm CPUs, AMD has made x86 and Arm CPUs since forever. And since they aquired Xillinx have FPGA as well. Soo AMD will be just fine, they can do x86, ARM and FPGA. Intel cant, Intel can only do x86. You dont know Intel also does GPUs, which are actually quite good for their price, nothing is top of the line performance, but intel didnt advertise them so, or price them so. But, Intel GPU line this generation are doing quite well, and maybe soon they will reach top of the line performance. You made zero mention about this, even tho it is the 1 possitive that is factual for intel? And all this for a Verdict at the end that is all for AMD and not for Intel. Reply Like (2) j [jayn](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (4.41K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Intel has Panther Lake coming with double size NPU, new Celestial GPU with 50% more cores, new CPU cores, new 18a process. They have a new 288 core Clearwater Forest coming with 18a process, Power VIA and hybrid bonding. They have a new Sierra Forest coming with 288 cores. They have a new Granite Rapids D chip coming with integrated vRAN boost. [www.servethehome.com/...](https://www.servethehome.com/intel-xeon-6-soc-for-the-edge-hello-granite-rapids-d/ "https://www.servethehome.com/intel-xeon-6-soc-for-the-edge-hello-granite-rapids-d/") Probably the biggest jumps are at the end of year with the new Diamond Rapids and Falcon Shores chips. In particular, Diamond Rapids leaks include pcie6, cxl 3.0, avx 10.2, new AMX with FP8 and TF32 data types. They also have two 18a fabs opening in AZ. We should also get a report soon on the Lunar Lake MSFT Surface models. Is that happening today? [www.theverge.com/...](https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/8/24339517/microsoft-surface-business-news-intel-lunar-lake-laptops-rumor "https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/8/24339517/microsoft-surface-business-news-intel-lunar-lake-laptops-rumor") [www.notebookcheck.net/...](https://www.notebookcheck.net/Microsoft-teases-Surface-Laptop-8-and-Surface-Pro-12-releases.953092.0.html "https://www.notebookcheck.net/Microsoft-teases-Surface-Laptop-8-and-Surface-Pro-12-releases.953092.0.html") Reply Like (1) j [jayn](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (4.41K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) The new Lunar Lake Surface announcement happened today, by MSFT CEO. [www.geekwire.com/...](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/microsofts-new-surface-copilot-pcs-use-intels-lunar-lake-chips-in-push-for-business-adoption/ "https://www.geekwire.com/2025/microsofts-new-surface-copilot-pcs-use-intels-lunar-lake-chips-in-push-for-business-adoption/") [x.com/...](https://x.com/Microsoft/status/1885000009642336528 "https://x.com/Microsoft/status/1885000009642336528") Reply Like (1) s [stocks for profit](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) Jan 29, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (7.42K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) Another day and another monopolist's backside getting kicked by Lisa Su. INTC is wobbling and NVDA is next. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/053/110/822/small_pic.png?t=c335db0bdb) [Abruzzo1](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53110822) Jan 29, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (174)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53110822) Comprehensive analysis! Very well researched and presented. Looks like all boats (AMD and INTEL) are poised to benefit from the current state and low valuations if you're a patient investor. Reply Like (1) Liked By Analyst a [abflyby](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6326781) Jan 29, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (156)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6326781) Really an Outstanding Effort\! I especially liked your highlighting AMD's pricing (elasticity of demand) "CPU Pricing" in Desktop and Server pricing and "CPU Competitive Factor Scores". I would love to see the notebook comparisons for the same if the data were to come available. I am impressed by the "PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm" as well. Outstanding job\! Thx Reply Like (2) Liked By Analyst ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/053/222/568/small_pic.png?t=fb0daf79aa) [n00bGmr86](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53222568) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (150)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53222568) Sub 15 coming after earnings. 9800x3D has put Intel out of the top 10 on Amazon globally... Client segment is going to be an unmitigated disaster. DCAI, well, we don't even know who'll take responsibility for that on the call. And with no confirmed CEO, are they even allowed to have a call? Should they be having a call as a public company without a publicly declared face as leader? The interim CEOs don't count. And it's been over a month now since Pat's departure. And no new CEO named. No one wants to try and steer this sinking ship. Reply Like (2) R [Red355702](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61043555) Jan 28, 2025 [Comments (211)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61043555) INTC would be the last stock I would buy if I wanted to make \$\$\$ on my investments. AMD, PLTR, NVDA--much better in the long run. Reply Like (3) u [user 1869665](https://seekingalpha.com/user/186965) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_136#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (348)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/186965) I was long Intel before Intel 13/14 gen CPU issue became wide spread problems. Lucky, I sold all my Intel holding before earning report. I was looking for opportunities to buy Intel back at around \$19-20 level. Unfortunately, the more I looked at various review for the new CPUs released from Intel, the more I am not comfortable to buy back Intel shares. For the current Intel CPU, \* Lunar Lake is too expensive in terms of cost. It will not be able to gain big market shares as laptops using the Lunar Lake are just too expensive. \* Arrow Lake performance and efficiency are not as good as original expected. It is in the same performance/efficiency level as AMD chips, which are manufactured on one gen older TSM node (4nm vs 3nm) \* Xeon6 probably is the one has slightly advantage over AMD. It may help Intel not losing more server market share. I do not know where author get data to state that Intel desktop CPU has better performance. We will see the market share data soon as both companies will release earning soon. In terms of X86 keep losing market share in PC. One important reason, the most important reason is that Microsoft keeps adding bloatware to its Win10/Win11. Most of ARM PC market share gain is from Apple, not from Qualcomm because 1\. MacOS is cleaner than Windows. 2\. Apple consumer products ecosystem (iPads, iPhones, airpods and watches) helps Macbook sales. Reply Like (4) j [jayn](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (4.41K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Intel made a number of bios updates for Arrow Lake, announced at CES, and there have been a few retests, such as the one in this link. [www.youtube.com/...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwQALgE54B4 "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwQALgE54B4") Reply Like ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/012/947/631/small_pic.png?t=9022ca76d7) [tufttugger](https://seekingalpha.com/user/12947631) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (10.16K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/12947631) It’s not much contest right now. AMD has better products nearly across the board. Even where Intel might win on some performance metrics they totally lose in price or reliability, etc. Right now it’s all about how fast AMD can kick Intel out of the best markets they still are in and getting supply up to fill that space. Reply Like (6) j [jayn](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (4.41K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) @tufttugger ...Intel showed a number of high-end gaming laptops at CES, paired with NVDA's 5090 laptop GPUs, a couple of them with dual Thunderbolt 5. I guess you're excluding these... [www.youtube.com/...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJCEpAarrck "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJCEpAarrck") [www.youtube.com/...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEG67JVGfHk "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEG67JVGfHk") [www.youtube.com/...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWrKaVwvMTM "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWrKaVwvMTM") Reply Like s [summerock](https://seekingalpha.com/user/47743456) Jan 28, 2025 [Comments (843)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/47743456) Intel will surpass all of AMD cpu with their 18A node and intel GPU and AI accelerator will slowly catch up. I keep buying every time it dips. I love that it is selling at bankruptcy price bc everyone think it is finished. Long intel. Reply Like (1) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/012/947/631/small_pic.png?t=9022ca76d7) [tufttugger](https://seekingalpha.com/user/12947631) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (10.16K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/12947631) If, and that’s a big if, Intel can manage any of those things, it will take years after the management and reliability issues fallout. Reply Like (3) ![](https://seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/053/222/568/small_pic.png?t=fb0daf79aa) [n00bGmr86](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53222568) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (150)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/53222568) Yeah? Then why isn't anyone stepping upto be the CEO of this unstoppable behemoth lol? More likely it'll slowly bleed out than slowly catch up. Fab constructions are running it dry. It's not at bankruptcy levels yet. That comes sub 5. Same place AMD was. In 2016s. And you think AMD is sleeping while 18A progresses? Just wait until x3d shows up on mobile. Reply Like (1) T [TheLazyInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Feb 03, 2025 [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.91K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Intel is doing so well that the CEO was fired. Reply Like (1) i [investor5115](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15914092) Jan 28, 2025 [Comments (2.99K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15914092) Some of the strangest & misguided benchmarking charts I’ve ever seen. Reply Like (5) W [Wulfen](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61719265) Jan 28, 2025 [Comments (22)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/61719265) Intel has an advantage in Desktop CPUs? Sorry, but I have had to laugh. AMD was better 2023 already. But 2024 Intel lost the performance race by a large margin now\! Reply Like (6) T [TheLazyInvestor](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Feb 03, 2025 [Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1392#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (1.91K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/18002292) Intel "achievements" in 2024: \- Sold entire stake in ARM (gotta need that cash) \- Selling Altera \- Full year losses (GAAP and non-GAAP) \- Stopped dividends \- Dropped from DJIA \- CEO fired Reply Like (1) P [PCARDAD](https://seekingalpha.com/user/57646593) Jan 28, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/alpha-picks#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (7)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/57646593) AMD is dominating the gaming desktop market these days...with 9 of the top 10 fastest CPU's according to Tom's Hardware. Reply Like (5) j [jayn](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (4.41K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/6589671) AMD has never broken into the business laptops at my work... vPRO was apparently the determining factor during the pandemic . Any desktops were switched to use VMs at the same time and that has remained. Intel still has a tight relationship with Dell, and Intel has the EVO certification that guarantees a certain quality level across multiple OEMs. Reply Like s [stocks for profit](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium) [Comments (7.42K)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/15842082) \- "Intel still has a tight relationship with Dell..." Best friend money can buy. Was \$1B/yr back in the day. How much is it now? Reply Like (1) P [PCARDAD](https://seekingalpha.com/user/57646593) Jan 30, 2025 [Premium](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/proresearch#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3APremium)[Investing Group](https://seekingalpha.com/alpha-picks#source=first_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Acomments%7Csection_asset%3Abadge%7Cbutton%3AInvesting%20Group) [Comments (7)](https://seekingalpha.com/user/57646593) I can't comment outside my tiny corner of the world but I have built a gaming rig every year for the past 20 years and this is the first year I didn't pick Intel - and Microcenter will only sell one AMD chip per address (if they even have them in stock) due to demand. Just my own observation...I bought 50 shs for sh1ts and giggles. Reply Like (1) Add A Comment Disagree with this article? [Submit your own](https://about.seekingalpha.com/become-an-analyst). 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Readable Markdown	![Blank chip on a circuit motherboard for additional text message](https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1336265678/image_1336265678.jpg?io=getty-c-w750) photoman/E+ via Getty Images By Khaveen Jey, CFA, FMVA,* Portfolio Manager @ Khaveen Investments & Anthony Goh, Senior Investment Research Analyst @ Khaveen Investments* In our [previous](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679108-amd-vs-intel-who-is-winning-in-cpus) comparison of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ([AMD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.")) and Intel Corporation ([INTC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC "Intel Corporation")), we highlighted the intense competition between AMD and Intel in the CPU market with Intel showing improving performance benchmark scores but AMD narrowing the gap in market share and remained superior to Intel in the server CPU market despite Intel’s growth. We revisit AMD and Intel this time to evaluate which is better positioned to lead the CPU market in 2025, given the growing substitution from Arm-based ([ARM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARM "Arm Holdings plc")) processors such as the rise of Apple’s ([AAPL](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL "Apple Inc.")) M-series chips, and competition from Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X chips ([QCOM](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QCOM "QUALCOMM Incorporated")), and custom Arm-based chips like Microsoft’s Cobalt ([MSFT](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT "Microsoft Corporation")), Amazon’s Graviton ([AMZN](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN "Amazon.com, Inc.")), and Google’s Axion ([GOOG](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG "Alphabet Inc.")). We first compare AMD and Intel’s competitiveness in the x86 market, analyzing market share trends in PC and server CPUs, product roadmaps, benchmarks, and performance metrics. We then assess their pricing strategies by evaluating performance relative to pricing. We also review the CPU market outlook, analyzing on the growth of x86 CPUs and the increasing adoption of Arm-based processors. ## Performance Advantage in x86 CPU Market and Roadmap We start by examining the competitive positioning of AMD or Intel in terms of market share below based on [Mercury Research](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), which is updated with 2024 figures based on data up to Q3 2024. [![cpu market share](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487843384_origin.png) Mercury Research, Khaveen Investments AMD has had a stronger 2024 compared to Intel as it gained some market share across Desktop, Notebook/Mobile and Server categories in x86 CPUs against Intel. AMD shined the most in Desktop, gaining a 5.8% share. It also did exceptionally well in Server, rising by 3.2% and also 2.5% in Notebook. According to [Mercury Research](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amds-desktop-pc-market-share-skyrockets-amid-intels-raptor-lake-crashing-scandal-amd-makes-biggest-leap-in-recent-history), AMD’s performance may have been boosted by factors such as its new Ryzen series launch and also troubles for Intel “related to stability issues with Intel's Raptor Lake chips, which generated a flood of negative press for the company over the course of several months”. Users [reported](https://www.pcworld.com/article/2415697/intels-crashing-13th-14th-gen-cpu-nightmare-explained.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) system crashes and instability, especially during intensive tasks like gaming and video encoding and were prevalent in high-end models. To resolve the issue, Intel has [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/4/24262287/intel-13th-14th-gen-crash-raptor-lake-root-cause-fix?utm_source=chatgpt.com) microcode updates and collaborated with motherboard manufacturers to implement BIOS updates. In the laptop segment, one factor for AMD’s gain is that it benefitted from an earlier launch of its new Ryzen laptop processors compared to Intel as AMD released "Ryzen AI 300-series products slightly ahead of Intel's Lunar Lake and could sell more of these new products to early adopters of x86-based Copilot+ PCs”. The company launched its Ryzen 8000 chips in [January](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/8/24026575/amd-8000-series-chips-ai-upgrade-ces-2024#:~:text=You%20can%20check%20out%20the,available%20on%20January%2031st%2C%202024.) 2024 compared to Intel’s Lunar Lake in September 2024. Company Product Line Launched in 2024 Market Process Technology (nm) AMD Ryzen 8000 Desktop 4 nm (TSMC) Ryzen 300 AI Series Notebook 4 nm (TSMC) EPYC Turin Server 3 nm and 4 nm (TSMC) Intel Arrow Lake Desktop 3 nm (TSMC) Raptor Lake Refresh (14th Gen) Notebook Intel 7 (10 nm) Sierra Forrest Server Intel 3 (7 nm) Granite Rapids Server Intel 3 (7 nm) Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments Since our last coverage of AMD and Intel’s CPU performance comparison, AMD released its new Ryzen 8000 series products while Intel launched its Arrow Lake for Desktop and Raptor Lake Refresh throughout 2024 for the PC CPU market. AMD also introduced its Ryzen 300 AI series products. In server CPUs, AMD released its Turin processors, while Intel launched Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. Comparing process technology, Intel outsourced its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs to TSMC’s (TSMC) [3nm](https://www.pcmag.com/news/intel-signals-arrow-lake-desktop-cpus-will-be-built-mainly-using-tsmc) process, which is a more advanced node than AMD’s 4nm used for its desktop Ryzen 8000 processors. In notebook, Intel’s Raptor Lake Refresh CPUs use the Intel 7 process (10nm), which is less advanced than AMD’s 4nm used for its Ryzen 300 AI Series. In the server market, AMD’s EPYC Turin processors utilize 3nm and 4nm nodes (TSMC), which are more advanced than Intel’s Intel 3 node used for Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. To determine which company has the performance advantage, we updated our performance comparison below to compare how both companies’ new products stack up against each other based on PassMark benchmark scores. We compiled an additional 62 CPU models for Intel and AMD across the new generations. [![cpu performance](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881042378_origin.png) Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments CPU Benchmarks Growth (Desktop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Intel Desktop 25\.1% 44\.1% 22\.7% 34\.1% 8\.3% 26\.4% 25\.2% AMD Desktop 0\.3% 54\.0% 2\.7% 40\.3% 48\.3% \-43.9% 17\.0% CPU Benchmarks (Laptop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Intel Mobile 63\.2% 2\.1% 14\.5% 108\.3% 37\.9% 38\.4% 44\.1% AMD Mobile 4\.6% 141\.8% 22\.9% 0\.9% 41\.1% \-18.7% 32\.1% CPU Benchmarks (Server) Gen 1 (2015) Gen 2 (2017) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2021) Gen 5 (2023) Gen 6 (2024) Average Intel Server \- 45\.0% 19\.1% 78\.5% 61\.9% N/A 42\.0% AMD Server \- \- 44\.9% 91\.2% 12\.6% 58\.0% 51\.7% Source: Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In Desktop, Intel’s new Arrow Lake shows an improvement of 26% compared to the previous Raptor Lake whereas AMD’s average benchmark for its Ryzen 8000 shows a decrease of 43.9%. However, we note that the Ryzen 8000 series is a smaller product lineup compared to the previous. The previous Ryzen 7000s also included Threadripper PRO high-performance CPUs which are not in the Ryzen 8000s, which lowers the average score. In terms of Laptop CPU performance, Intel also shows a continued rise in the average benchmark by 38% with the latest Raptor Lake Refresh. AMD’s average benchmark is 18.7% lower. This includes both AMD’s new Ryzen 8000 series and its Ryzen AI 300 series which is only 14 products in total compared to 30 different SKUs in the previous generation. The 8000 series only have 1 Ryzen 9 high end performance CPU compared to 5 in the previous gen. In Server CPU, for Intel’s 2024 server CPUs (Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids), we found that data from PassMark is still unavailable. For AMD, its newest gen has a strong improvement with a 58% increase compared to the previous gen average benchmark score. One of the key differences between the specs of Turin is core count, with Turin having up to twice the maximum core count compared with its previous gen Genoa at [196 cores](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/amd-announces-3nm-epyc-turin-launching-with-192-cores-and-384-threads-in-second-half-of-2024-54x-faster-than-intel-xeon-in-ai-workload?utm_source=chatgpt.com). ### Outlook Summary Table (Performance) Advantage Desktop Intel Laptop Intel Server AMD Overall Intel Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs based on our analysis of its latest Arrow Lake CPU gen compared to AMD. That said, AMD is expected to release next gen Medusa CPUs this year with a new [Zen 6](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zen_6?utm_source=chatgpt.com) architecture that will be based on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm process, superior to Zen 5’s 4nm process and could provide a performance boost. However, Intel’s roadmap indicates Panther Lake to launch in 2025 to compete with AMD, utilizing its Intel 18A which is equivalent to 1.8nm. We highlighted in our Intel analysis previously that we believe a successful execution of its process technology advancement could pose strong competition to AMD and Intel is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-is-sampling-18a-based-panther-lake-with-customers-panther-lake-cpus-are-on-track-for-2h-2025-launch#:~:text=CPUs-,Intel%20is%20sampling%2018A-based%20Panther%20Lake%20with%20customers%20%E2%80%94%20Intel,track%20for%202H%202025%20launch&text=Good%20news%20for%20Intel's%201.8nm-class%20process%20technology.) “on track for 2H 2025 launch” but we will only know more details of its performance when it gets closer to the release date of [Panther Lake](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/01/07/news-intel-confirms-panther-lake-first-processor-manufactured-with-18a-node-to-launch-in-2h25/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20from,the%20second%20half%20of%202025.) in H2 2025. In Server, however, AMD’s Turin gen CPU shows an impressive performance improvement over its previous gen, which may have extended its performance gap over Intel. Like in PCs, we believe Intel’s execution of its process technology will be key to whether it may catch up with AMD. Meanwhile, AMD is also expected to launch its new Venice server CPUs this year based on its Zen 6 architecture. ## Overall CPU Competitiveness We then next examine the comparison of AMD and Intel’s CPUs in terms of pricing and value (performance per pricing) to determine which company is the most competitive overall in x86 CPUs. From our compilation of the latest CPU products released in 2024, we summarize the average pricing per gen in the chart below. [![cpu pricing](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964883347569_origin.png) Company Data, Khaveen Investments CPU Pricing (Desktop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Growth Intel Desktop \-2.8% 9\.7% 3\.2% 3\.6% 3\.7% 0\.7% 4\.1% AMD Desktop \-15.2% 35\.4% \-0.7% 27\.6% 25\.1% \-48.8% 3\.9% CPU Pricing (Laptop) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2020) Gen 5 (2021) Gen 6 (2022) Gen 7 (2023) Gen 8 (2024) Average Growth Intel Mobile 9\.0% 5\.0% \-7.1% 20\.4% \-0.8% 6\.7% 5\.5% CPU Pricing Gen 1 (2015) Gen 2 (2017) Gen 3 (2019) Gen 4 (2021) Gen 5 (2023) Gen 6 (2024) Average Growth Intel Server \- 15\.7% 26\.5% 18\.6% 110\.3% 113\.6% 56\.9% AMD Server \- \- 15\.2% 101\.6% 64\.8% 34\.0% 53\.9% Source: Company Data, Khaveen Investments In terms of Desktop first, we compiled Intel’s average pricing for the 2024 gen to be fairly stable with a flattish difference of 0.7% compared to the previous gen. AMD’s average pricing is 49% lower which we believe reflects the lower average benchmark score as explained in the first section as the newest gen lacked new high-performance models such as Ryzen Threadripper which has a higher ASP, thus weighing on AMD’s average in 2024. In the Notebook segment, we were only able to obtain pricing data for Intel, which shows an increase of 6.7% for its latest gen. Whereas in Server, pricing growth is much higher for both companies than in PC. Intel’s average pricing has been doubling 2 years in a row for each new gen, surpassing AMD's average pricing for its Turin. ### Competitive Factor Score Next, we examine our derived competitive factor scores for both companies based on the performance to pricing ratio to analyze which company has an advantage in terms of overall CPU value. [![cpu comp factor score](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881394389_origin.png) Company Data, PassMark, Khaveen Investments In terms of competitive factor score for its latest gen, both AMD and Intel show positive growth, indicating increased value, due to the higher performance growth compared to pricing growth based on average benchmark and pricing data as analyzed above. For Laptops, Intel shows a strong increase of 73% as its average performance increased by 38% while average pricing is only higher by 6.7% whereas we could not compute the score for AMD due to unavailable pricing data. Intel may have a higher score for Desktop in PC, but AMD has had an advantage over Intel with higher scores for its previous gen. Not only that, but AMD’s factor score also shows a 17.9% rise driven by its performance improvement of 58% higher average benchmark score which outpaced its 34% pricing growth. As explained as benchmark scores for Intel’s 2024 are not yet available, we could not compute its 2024 gen factor score but given its 114% higher average pricing, its performance would have to rise by more than that for an improvement in its previous factor score of 11.6x which might be unlikely and Intel’s historical increase has been lower than that, thus we believe AMD still holds an advantage in server. ### Outlook Summary Table Advantage Pricing Desktop AMD Server AMD Overall AMD Competitive Factor Desktop Intel Server AMD Overall Tie Source: Khaveen Investments Therefore, in terms of overall competitiveness, we believe Intel continues to have an advantage based on our derived competitive factor score which continues to remain higher than AMD supported by its stronger performance to pricing growth for its Arrow Lake. We updated our overall weighted average score of 1.1x for Intel, which is in line with our previous analysis of 1.08x, implying our expectation of a better outlook for Intel going forward. That said, we believe Intel’s competitiveness was affected by its technical issues, but the company has since released updates to resolve the issues. In the server market, AMD leads with a higher weighted average factor score of 1.17x due to its superior performance advantage with higher average benchmark scores for its product lineup including its latest Turin processors which shows an impressive improvement. AMD’s server CPU market share in 2024 of 24% compared with its previous year’s share of 20.8% is an increase of 1.15x, which is in line with our latest weighted average of 1.17x. ## CPU Market Outlook and Rise of ARM CPUs Impact x86 Shipment Growth Finally, we examine the CPU market growth outlook and the share between x86 and ARM-based CPUs as AMD and Intel focus on x86 CPUs. In the past years, several companies have been developing Arm-based CPUs in the PC and server markets including Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Ampere below. [![arm cpu launches](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488238997_origin.png) Company Data, Khaveen Investments Apple and Qualcomm have ARM-based CPUs for PCs with high performance, energy efficiency, and integration of advanced features like AI acceleration according to these companies. Furthermore, top cloud companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft introduced Arm-based CPUs for their servers, due to their needs for scalable, energy-efficient and cost-effective solutions. The common factors include reduced power consumption, lower total cost of ownership and the flexibility of ARM architectures to optimize for specific workloads like AI, big data, and cloud-native applications. However, a key difference between Apple as well as cloud service providers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon are that these companies use their Arm chips internally rather than selling them to other manufacturers, hence are not direct competitors to Intel and AMD. Qualcomm is a direct competitor as it supplies its Snapdragon X PC chips to [PC makers](https://www.crn.com/news/computing/2024/7-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-based-ai-pcs-from-hp-dell-and-lenovo?utm_source=chatgpt.com) such as HP, Lenovo, Dell and more. Then, we compile the market share of the split between Arm-based and x86 in the PC CPUs based on data from Mercury Research, as well as in the server CPU market by DigiTimes and Wells Fargo below. ### PC and Server CPU Breakdown by x86 and Arm [![x86 vs arm cpu](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964881935785_origin.png) Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments ### PC The chart shows a gradual rise in ARM's share of the PC CPU market from 3.4% in 2020 to a peak of 14.6% in 2022, followed by a decline to 10.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, x86 continues to hold the largest share of the PC CPU market but has seen its share decline from 96.6% in 2020 to 85.4% in 2022, before slightly rebounding to 89.7% in 2024. The decline in ARM-based CPUs' PC market share during 2023 and 2024 is likely due to a slowdown in Apple's Mac shipments, as Apple has an over 90% [market share](https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/04/10/apple-silicon-dominates-the-market-for-arm-chips-will-drive-growth?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the ARM-based laptop market. In the Q1 of 2023, Mac shipments [declined](https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/04/17/apples-mac-had-a-tough-first-quarter-of-2023-in-a-bad-overall-pc-market?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by 40% YoY. In Q4 2024, Apple’s Mac [shipments](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53061925) growth shows signs of recovery with a 17.3% growth, outpacing the market growth of 1.8% and could bode well for the rise in Arm. Apple is likely to continue accounting for the majority of the Arm-based CPU share, as Qualcomm only recently introduced its Arm-based Snapdragon chips, but Qualcomm competes with AMD and Intel to supply processors to PC makers, while Apple exclusively uses its chips for its own products. Apple’s growth in the Arm-based CPU market is limited, as it only produces chips to meet the demand for its Macs, supplying solely based on the number of Macs it can sell. According to [TechInsights](https://www.tomshardware.com/laptops/projections-show-that-arm-cpus-will-power-40-percent-of-notebooks-sold-in-2029), "by the end of 2029, Arm's grasp of the notebook PC market will have doubled to 40%+,", driven by Arm's success in notebooks to Apple's transition to Apple Silicon in 2020, starting with the M1 chip. Similarly, [Counterpoint Research](https://www.patentlyapple.com/2023/02/apple-currently-owns-90-of-the-arm-based-laptop-market-and-the-trend-will-continue-to-take-market-share-away-from-intel.html) also forecasts an increasing penetration rate of the Arm ecosystem, driven by closer collaboration between chip vendors and OEMs on product offerings, highlighting that "the rising consumer awareness of Arm’s competitiveness versus Intel’s long-lasting x86" could further support its market share expansion. In our [previous analysis](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716891-arm-holdings-super-growth-but-fairly-valued) of Arm, we highlighted the benefits of Arm-based processors in PCs, including cost and energy efficiency which we believe are factors that could spur the continued rise of Arm-based CPUs for PCs. ### Server The chart above shows that x86 server CPU market share declined steadily from 96.7% in 2020 to 92.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, ARM-based server CPUs saw consistent growth, increasing from 2.6% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2023. The share of other CPUs is stable but only minor at below 1%. We believe Arm’s CPU advantages in cost and energy efficiency as well as Arm’s partnerships as highlighted previously with top cloud service providers including Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft support the growth outlook in the server market. ### PC and Server Market Growth Outlook In the table below, we derive our forecasts for the CPU market for both PC and server markets with a breakdown of x86 and Arm-based CPUs. [![cpu market projections](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896488245508_origin.png) Mercury Research, DigiTimes, Wells Fargo, Khaveen Investments To project the CPU market growth, we used our model projections for the PC, updated from our [previous analysis](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592724-intel-stock-oversold-on-market-headwinds) taking into account growth factors such as population, internet penetration and PC penetration rates for a total forward average growth of 4.3%, as well as our projections for the server market at CAGR of 6% based on DigiTimes as proxies for the total CPU market growth. For the PC market, we used the assumption by TechInsights of the Arm notebook market (79% of PC market) reaching 40% by 2029 to derive a share of 31.6% in 2029 assuming minimal for Arm-based desktops. From the 2029 shipments share for Arm, we calculate the CAGR of 30.46% between 2024 and 2029. With the remaining shipments of the PC market calculated from the difference between the total PC shipments and Arm shipments, we calculated an average growth of -1.2% for x86 CPUs for PC due to the shift to Arm. For the server market, we based our assumption for Arm-based server growth on Grand View Research’s market [projection](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/arm-based-servers-market-report) of a 14.3% CAGR, reaching a share of total shipments of 11.6% by 2029. For Others, we forecast it based on a rolling 5-year average of 0.6% in 2024. Based on the difference between our derived total server market, Arm and Others shipments, we obtained x86 server shipments with an average growth of 5.15%, lower than the market growth of 6% due to the shift to Arm-based servers. Summary Table (Market Share) Advantage PC AMD Server AMD Overall AMD Source: Khaveen Investments Overall, we believe the CPU market’s shift to Arm-based against x86 amid the continuous development of new Arm-based CPUs by companies including Qualcomm as well as internal adoption of Arm-based CPUs by Apple and top cloud service providers such as AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft due to Arm’s benefits of cost and energy efficiency, will continue to be negative for both AMD and Intel which focus on x86 products. In PC, our forward average x86 CPU market growth of -1.2% would weigh negatively on Intel and AMD’s PC CPU revenue growth and will have to depend on higher ASPs for better growth, which might be challenging and suppressed due to the intensive competitive landscape in the x86 CPU market where we highlighted the average pricing growth of both AMD and Intel is only single digits. In the server market, although we see a negative impact on x86 CPUs due to the shift of Arm, it is still relatively better than in the PC market, with a forward average growth of 5.15% for x86. Based on our competitive factor score for both Intel and AMD applied to our x86 market growth forecasts, we projected the market share of both companies. In PC, we see both AMD and Intel’s share declining due to the strong rise in Arm’s share, with Intel standing to lose the most market share of 16.1% compared to 4.8% for AMD given Intel’s large share in x86 PC CPUs to Arm’s benefit. In server, we projected AMD’s market share to remain stable at 22%, despite the rise of Arm as we believe its competitive strengths against Intel in x86 to offset share losses from Arm’s gains. Intel’s market share, on the other hand, is forecasted to decline by 5.6% based on our projections. [![cpu market share forecasts](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964884426343_origin.png) Mercury Research, IDC, Khaveen Investments ## Risk: Nvidia’s Development of Arm PC CPU We see a growing risk for AMD and Intel as more companies adopt Arm-based processors for PCs. Apple has already developed its own custom chips, and Qualcomm introduced its Snapdragon platform last year and quickly gained a 0.8% [share](https://www.techpowerup.com/329255/snapdragon-x-failed-qualcomm-sold-720-000-pcs-in-q3-around-0-8-market-share?utm_source=chatgpt.com) of the total PC market share in Q3 last year. Now, Nvidia is [reportedly](https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/processors/nvidia-seems-to-have-just-confirmed-upcoming-arm-and-blackwell-laptop-chips-based-on-its-new-gb10-processor-in-collaboration-with-mediatek/) working with MediaTek to create Arm-based CPUs for PCs, adding more competition. Nvidia has previously developed its Grace CPU on data centers, but we believe expanding into PC processors might be a reasonable expectation given its leadership in discrete GPUs which could make Arm-based processors even more competitive and could potentially be one of the biggest threats to both Intel and AMD. ## Valuation We updated our DCF valuations of AMD and Intel by taking into account our new revenue projections for their PC and server CPU segments based on their new competitive positioning. ### AMD [![amd valuation](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-1737896487942131_origin.png) Khaveen Investments ### Intel [![intel valuation](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png?io=w640)](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2025/1/26/49636850-17378964878228033_origin.png) Khaveen Investments For AMD, we estimate PC and server CPU revenue to grow at a forward 3-year average of 4.4% and 52.7%, respectively, based on shipment growth and historical pricing trends, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 26.1%. Whereas for Intel, we forecasted its PC and server CPU revenues growth of 4.1% and 8.3% respectively, lower than AMD especially in server mainly due to our lower competitive factor score for Intel and pricing growth, resulting in a 5-year average total revenue growth of 7.2% for Intel. We apply discount rates based on each companies' WACC of 12.8% for AMD, which is higher than Intel's of 7.7%, due to higher 5-yr beta of AMD (1.71) compared to Intel (1.06). For terminal value, we applied an EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.07x for AMD based on the 5-year average of US chipmakers, but only 10.12x for Intel which is based on the company's 5-year historical average which we believe is more appropriate for Intel given's its lower multiple compared to US chipmakers' average as well as the company's average has been stable in the past 5 years. Our models show large upsides for both companies, with AMD at 74.13% and Intel at 31%, as both companies’ share prices have had weakness in the past year, declining by 31% and 58%, indicating an attractive valuation at current levels. ## Verdict Summary Desktop Laptop Server Overall Performance Intel Intel AMD AMD Pricing AMD N/A AMD AMD Competitive Factor Intel N/A AMD Tie CPU Market Share AMD AMD AMD AMD Overall Tie Tie AMD AMD Source: Khaveen Investments We believe Intel maintains a performance advantage in PC CPUs, driven by its latest Arrow Lake generation, although AMD could narrow the gap with its anticipated Medusa CPUs featuring the advanced Zen 6 architecture on TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. Intel’s Panther Lake, expected in 2025 on Intel 18A (equivalent to 1.8nm), could bolster its competitiveness, but its success hinges on execution. In servers, AMD leads with superior performance, as seen in the Turin CPUs, and we expect further advancements with the upcoming Zen 6-based Venice processors. Intel’s overall competitive factor score remains higher at 1.1x, reflecting stronger pricing-to-performance growth for Arrow Lake, though technical challenges have previously impacted its competitiveness. AMD’s server CPU market share grew to 24% in 2024, supported by a weighted average factor score of 1.17x. However, we expect the shift to Arm-based CPUs, favored for cost and energy efficiency by companies like Apple, AWS, and Google Cloud, to negatively impact x86-focused players like AMD and Intel. We forecast x86 CPU market growth to decline by -1.2% in PCs, weighing on revenue growth as price competition intensifies. In servers, while Arm adoption poses a challenge, x86 CPUs could see moderate growth at 5.15%. In summary, we believe AMD edges out Intel in both PC and Server x86 CPU markets, given its relatively more attractive pricing and less market share loss impact amid the rise of Arm in PC and a more clear advantage in Servers due to its stronger performance and attractive pricing, leading in a superior competitive factor score to Intel and our expectations for stable market share going forward in the overall CPU market with competitive strengths could support market share gains against Intel while offsetting share losses from Arm. Nonetheless, we rate both companies as Strong Buy as both are chipmakers with positive prospects despite the rise of Arm chips and attractive valuations for AMD (\$206.24) and Intel (\$25.78) following both companies’ share price weakness in the past year. As both Intel and AMD are set to report Q4 earnings, we will keep an eye on management's revenue growth guidance going forward, and commentary of the CPU market growth trends as well as upcoming product launches this year to maintain their competitiveness. 8\.23K Followers Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD, INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. No information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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