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[](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/) # [Paul Krugman](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/) Subscribe Sign in # When MAGA Prophecy Fails ### Being a cultist means never admitting that you were wrong [](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman) [Paul Krugman](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman) Sep 10, 2025 2,209 371 375 Share [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AwCV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbcab9cf8-c960-4310-b006-967f6ef6e9c7_1000x720.jpeg) Like everyone else, I’ve been following the latest Trump-Epstein revelations. Or maybe we should call them confirmations: Unless you were deep in the cult, you already had a pretty good idea of who Trump was and were aware that he and Epstein went way back. But many Trump loyalists *are* cultists, sufficiently so that they believed that Donald Trump — *Donald Trump\!* — was heroically defending the world against pedophiles. And we know what cultists do when confronted with facts that refute their beliefs: They engage in [denia](https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/1835405.When_Prophecy_Fails)l. Now, Epstein and all that is — thank God! — not my department. But MAGA’s cultish nature is relevant to matters that are in my usual domain. For Trump made many [prophecies](https://doggett.house.gov/issues/trumps-economic-promises-timeline) about the economic miracles he would achieve as president. “Starting on day one, we will end inflation,” he promised. “We will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.” He promised to get gasoline below \$2 a gallon. And of course he insisted that he would deliver a jobs boom, especially in manufacturing. Obviously none of that is happening. Tomorrow’s report on consumer prices will [probably show](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) inflation running at close to 3 percent, with most economists expecting it to rise in the months ahead. Electricity prices are [rising rapidly](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kilowatt-madness), while gas is solidly above [\$3 a gallon](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts). And job growth appears to be stalling. Furthermore, much of the bad news is Trump’s own fault. His tariffs and deportations are both adding to inflation and, by creating uncertainty, slowing the economy. But cultists never admit that their prophecies were wrong. Rather than admit that the promised economic miracle isn’t happening, Trump and his minions have gone after the people reporting the bad news, specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces both jobs and inflation data. Trump has already fired the head of the BLS for reporting job numbers he didn’t like, claiming falsely that the bad numbers were rigged to hurt him politically. We can expect further claims of partisan bias as the inflation numbers get worse, and eventually, probably quite soon, an attempt to purge and politicize the agency. The push to politicize the BLS has been reinforced by yesterday’s report from the agency, which revised downward its estimates of past job growth. The White House claimed that it shows that “[the BLS is broken](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/white-house-biden-powell-trump-jobs-.html).” It showed no such thing. As a [helpful post](https://www.epi.org/blog/todays-bls-preliminary-benchmark-revisions-are-necessary-for-timely-and-accurate-data-not-fodder-for-trumps-attacks/) from the Economic Policy Institute says, > These BLS data revisions are not corrections of mistakes. Revisions are part of the regular, transparent process to update employment counts with the most comprehensive data possible. As the EPI explains, monthly job numbers don’t literally track every job in America. They’re estimates based on a partial survey of employers. We only get comprehensive data from unemployment insurance tax records, which become available once a year. Revising the estimates based on that data is normal and in no sense a sign that the BLS is doing anything wrong. But the administration will try to use the revision to discredit the agency, and in particular its recent reports showing a worsening labor market. So what you need to know is that the BLS is doing its job the way it should, and that there is plenty of additional evidence confirming that the labor market has gotten worse under Trump. For example, the widely respected Conference Board survey of consumers shows that between [last December](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-retreated-in-january-302362076.html) and [August](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/) there was a sharp decline in the number of people saying jobs were “plentiful” and a sharp rise in those saying they were “hard to get.” The New York Fed reports that the percentage of respondents who believe that they could quickly find a new job if they lost their current one has [dropped sharply](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/jobfind-1). And the Federal Reserve’s [Beige Book](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202508-summary.htm), a regular informal survey that often serves as a useful check on formal data, gave a clear picture of stalling employment: > Eleven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while one District described a modest decline. Seven Districts noted that firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty. Moreover, contacts in two Districts reported an increase in layoffs, while contacts in multiple Districts reported reducing headcounts through attrition … This is not a booming economy. It's not really surprising that Trump is failing to deliver on any of his promises, which never made sense in the first place. Nor is it surprising that he and those around him, rather than making a course correction, are trying to shoot the messengers. But it’s a tragedy that the attempt to suppress bad news may well destroy the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a highly competent and professional agency whose services we need more than ever. MUSICAL CODA *** #### Subscribe to Paul Krugman Tens of thousands of paid subscribers Notes on economics and more By subscribing, you agree Substack's [Terms of Use](https://substack.com/tos), and acknowledge its [Information Collection Notice](https://substack.com/ccpa#personal-data-collected) and [Privacy Policy](https://substack.com/privacy). [](https://substack.com/profile/5270661-davidn) [](https://substack.com/profile/7362054-michael-latner) [](https://substack.com/profile/5926049-ange-pause) [](https://substack.com/profile/978640-paul-p) [](https://substack.com/profile/1885027-stephen-wunderlich) [2,209 Likes]()∙ [375 Restacks](https://substack.com/note/p-173228821/restacks?utm_source=substack&utm_content=facepile-restacks) 2,209 371 375 Share #### Discussion about this post Comments Restacks [](https://substack.com/profile/2971986-lisa-z?utm_source=comment) [Lisa Z](https://substack.com/profile/2971986-lisa-z?utm_source=substack-feed-item) [Sep 10](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-maga-prophecy-fails/comment/154340910 "Sep 10, 2025, 10:42 AM") I am so frustrated with the legacy media's response to this. They do this EVERY time. Damning evidence of Trump's perfidy, corruption or incompetence is revealed, Trump bellows "FAKE NEWS," and then that becomes the story. For example: we have the Epstein letter. Trump denies it, threatens to sue. The letter is produced and everyone can see it. Trump says it's fake. And like robots, reporters everywhere proceed to ask every Republican, administration official, politician etc. if they believe the letter is real or fake. That's not the story! Trump is a serial liar, yet they keep giving him the benefit of the doubt. How about showing some footage of all the times Trump claimed something was fake that we all knew was true? He said the Access Hollywood tape was fake. He said the 2020 election results were fake. Heck, he even claimed a NOAA hurricane map was fake, because it contradicted something he had said earlier and was embarrassed. Stop giving a serial liar the benefit of the doubt. Focus on the main story, not what Trump says about it. Of COURSE he's going to say it's fake. That's a given\! Aaaagghh ... I'm more angry at the media than anyone else, to be honest. They have let the nation down. [Like (525)]() [Reply]() [Share]() [139 replies](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-maga-prophecy-fails/comment/154340910) [](https://substack.com/profile/27585038-bob-hinton?utm_source=comment) [Bob Hinton](https://substack.com/profile/27585038-bob-hinton?utm_source=substack-feed-item) [Sep 10](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-maga-prophecy-fails/comment/154340552 "Sep 10, 2025, 10:41 AM") Trump is ruining our country in so many ways. Thank you for your steadfast insights. [Like (124)]() [Reply]() [Share]() [1 reply](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-maga-prophecy-fails/comment/154340552) [369 more comments...](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-maga-prophecy-fails/comments) Top Latest Discussions [Attack of the Zombie Tariffs](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-the-zombie-tariffs) [A brain is a terrible thing to have eaten](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-the-zombie-tariffs) Feb 24 • [Paul Krugman](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman) 2,060 359 337  [Monsters](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/monsters) [And their enablers are accessories to murder](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/monsters) Jan 25 • [Paul Krugman](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman) 8,488 1,259 1,616  [It’s Sundowning in America](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-sundowning-in-america) [A presidential mind is a dangerous thing to lose](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-sundowning-in-america) Jan 20 • [Paul Krugman](https://substack.com/@paulkrugman) 6,676 1,068 1,442  See all ### Ready for more? © 2026 Paul Krugman · [Privacy](https://substack.com/privacy) ∙ [Terms](https://substack.com/tos) ∙ [Collection notice](https://substack.com/ccpa#personal-data-collected) [Start your Substack](https://substack.com/signup?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_content=footer) [Get the app](https://substack.com/app/app-store-redirect?utm_campaign=app-marketing&utm_content=web-footer-button) [Substack](https://substack.com/) is the home for great culture This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. 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[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AwCV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbcab9cf8-c960-4310-b006-967f6ef6e9c7_1000x720.jpeg) Like everyone else, I’ve been following the latest Trump-Epstein revelations. Or maybe we should call them confirmations: Unless you were deep in the cult, you already had a pretty good idea of who Trump was and were aware that he and Epstein went way back. But many Trump loyalists *are* cultists, sufficiently so that they believed that Donald Trump — *Donald Trump\!* — was heroically defending the world against pedophiles. And we know what cultists do when confronted with facts that refute their beliefs: They engage in [denia](https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/1835405.When_Prophecy_Fails)l. Now, Epstein and all that is — thank God! — not my department. But MAGA’s cultish nature is relevant to matters that are in my usual domain. For Trump made many [prophecies](https://doggett.house.gov/issues/trumps-economic-promises-timeline) about the economic miracles he would achieve as president. “Starting on day one, we will end inflation,” he promised. “We will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.” He promised to get gasoline below \$2 a gallon. And of course he insisted that he would deliver a jobs boom, especially in manufacturing. Obviously none of that is happening. Tomorrow’s report on consumer prices will [probably show](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) inflation running at close to 3 percent, with most economists expecting it to rise in the months ahead. Electricity prices are [rising rapidly](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/kilowatt-madness), while gas is solidly above [\$3 a gallon](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts). And job growth appears to be stalling. Furthermore, much of the bad news is Trump’s own fault. His tariffs and deportations are both adding to inflation and, by creating uncertainty, slowing the economy. But cultists never admit that their prophecies were wrong. Rather than admit that the promised economic miracle isn’t happening, Trump and his minions have gone after the people reporting the bad news, specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces both jobs and inflation data. Trump has already fired the head of the BLS for reporting job numbers he didn’t like, claiming falsely that the bad numbers were rigged to hurt him politically. We can expect further claims of partisan bias as the inflation numbers get worse, and eventually, probably quite soon, an attempt to purge and politicize the agency. The push to politicize the BLS has been reinforced by yesterday’s report from the agency, which revised downward its estimates of past job growth. The White House claimed that it shows that “[the BLS is broken](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/white-house-biden-powell-trump-jobs-.html).” It showed no such thing. As a [helpful post](https://www.epi.org/blog/todays-bls-preliminary-benchmark-revisions-are-necessary-for-timely-and-accurate-data-not-fodder-for-trumps-attacks/) from the Economic Policy Institute says, > These BLS data revisions are not corrections of mistakes. Revisions are part of the regular, transparent process to update employment counts with the most comprehensive data possible. As the EPI explains, monthly job numbers don’t literally track every job in America. They’re estimates based on a partial survey of employers. We only get comprehensive data from unemployment insurance tax records, which become available once a year. Revising the estimates based on that data is normal and in no sense a sign that the BLS is doing anything wrong. But the administration will try to use the revision to discredit the agency, and in particular its recent reports showing a worsening labor market. So what you need to know is that the BLS is doing its job the way it should, and that there is plenty of additional evidence confirming that the labor market has gotten worse under Trump. For example, the widely respected Conference Board survey of consumers shows that between [last December](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-retreated-in-january-302362076.html) and [August](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/) there was a sharp decline in the number of people saying jobs were “plentiful” and a sharp rise in those saying they were “hard to get.” The New York Fed reports that the percentage of respondents who believe that they could quickly find a new job if they lost their current one has [dropped sharply](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/jobfind-1). And the Federal Reserve’s [Beige Book](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202508-summary.htm), a regular informal survey that often serves as a useful check on formal data, gave a clear picture of stalling employment: > Eleven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while one District described a modest decline. Seven Districts noted that firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty. Moreover, contacts in two Districts reported an increase in layoffs, while contacts in multiple Districts reported reducing headcounts through attrition … This is not a booming economy. It's not really surprising that Trump is failing to deliver on any of his promises, which never made sense in the first place. Nor is it surprising that he and those around him, rather than making a course correction, are trying to shoot the messengers. But it’s a tragedy that the attempt to suppress bad news may well destroy the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a highly competent and professional agency whose services we need more than ever. MUSICAL CODA