🕷️ Crawler Inspector

URL Lookup

Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 152 (from laksa121)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa152.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6125727\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6125727\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6125727","crawl_time":1774272339,"first_indexed_time":1756203248,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,cnyes!news,\/news\/id\/6125727 s443","src_root_hash":"1476172801445663552","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"為什麼這麼多投資人認為美股正在形成泡沫？ | 鉅亨網 - 美股雷達","meta_descriptions":["《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。"],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。\n自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升(圖：Shutterstock)\n這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。\n‌\nHulbert 談到，他的許多客戶對這點感到驚訝，因為普遍觀感認為，市場自今年 1 月以來漲得更誇張、估值更離譜。但實際上似乎改變的，是更多分析師開始宣稱我們正處於泡沫之中。\n想想看：今年企業獲利的增長速度甚至快過大盤本身。相比\n標普 500 指數\n今年迄今 9.9% 的漲幅，該指數過去 12 個月的每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長了 10.4%。換句話說，股市年初以來的漲幅，全由更高的獲利在支撐。\n因此，股市的本益比自 1 月以來還略微下降了。\n如果說「泡沫」是指市場漲幅不斷超前於企業獲利，那麼今天的我們，並沒有比年初更接近泡沫。然而，在這同樣的 8 個月期間，Google 上關於泡沫的搜尋頻率卻幾乎翻倍。\n這顯示出泡沫預言的主觀層面，它與估值過高的客觀層面僅有鬆散的關聯。出於大多難以捉摸的原因，總有些時候——就像現在——分析師更傾向於宣稱泡沫正在形成。諷刺的是，從反向角度來看，市場上預測泡沫即將破裂的聲音愈多，實際上泡沫破裂的可能性反而更小。\n圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings\n這並不是要否認股市仍極度高估，圖表所列的 10 個估值指標，都在預測股市後續報酬方面有不錯的紀錄，其中大多數已經處在或接近美國歷史上最悲觀的水平。\n然而，理解泡沫預言中非客觀、心理層面 的重要性依舊有價值。最需要擔心泡沫破裂的時刻，往往是當市場確實被高估，但「泡沫可能存在」這件事卻不在投資人雷達上的時候。","attrs_markdown":"- [首頁](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/)\n- [新聞](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/headline)\n- [台股](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/twstock)\n- [美股](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/usstock)\n- [陸港股](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/hkstock)\n- [基金](https:\/\/fund.cnyes.com\/)\n- [外匯](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/forex)\n- [全球](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/indices\/major)\n- [加密幣](https:\/\/crypto.cnyes.com\/)\n- [鉅亨買](https:\/\/anuefund.tw\/768tv)\n- [鉅亨號](https:\/\/hao.cnyes.com\/?utm_source=cnyes&utm_medium=nav)\n- [訂閱](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/anuestore)\n\n![search icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/search\/icon-search-new.svg)\n\n![user avatar](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/avatar\/user-profile.svg)\n\n登入\n\n註冊\n\n- [頭條](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/headline)\n- [台股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/tw_stock)\n- [美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/wd_stock)\n- [科技](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/tech)\n- [陸港股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/cn_stock)\n- [熱門時事](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/poptopic)\n- [速報](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/anue_live)\n- [基金](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/fund)\n- [外匯](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/forex)\n- [期貨](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/future)\n- [區塊鏈](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/bc)\n- [房產](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/cnyeshouse)\n- [理財](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/tw_money)\n- [新視界](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/celebrity_area)\n- [專題](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/projects)\n- [雜誌](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/mag)\n- [我的新聞](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/member\/mytag\/all)\n- [自選股](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/member\/portfolios)\n\n![menu-icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/menu\/menu.svg)\n\n[![anue logo](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/logo\/anue-logo-colorful.svg)](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/headline)\n\n[![鉅亨傳承學院](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/header\/symbol-icon-ye-sclub.png)](https:\/\/campaign.cnyes.com\/topics\/LegacyAcademy\/?utm_source=mweb&utm_medium=anuebuy)[![鉅亨號](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/header\/hao.png)](https:\/\/hao.cnyes.com\/)[![鉅亨買幣](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/header\/crypto.png)](https:\/\/campaign.cnyes.com\/topics\/anuecrypto\/?utm_source=mobile&utm_medium=header)\n\n![user avatar](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/avatar\/user-profile.svg)\n\n![search icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/search\/search.svg)\n\n‌\n\n![home-icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/breadCrumb\/symbol-icon-home.svg)\n\n[美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/wd_stock)[美股雷達](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/us_stock)\n\n美股\n\n# 為什麼這麼多投資人認為美股正在形成泡沫？\n\n鉅亨網編譯陳又嘉2025-08-26 12:00\n\n《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。\n\n![cover image of news article](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6125727\/l\/a222b484ecb5c73b298b1024dcc45fe9.jpg)\n\n自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升(圖：Shutterstock)\n\n這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。\n\n‌\n\nHulbert 談到，他的許多客戶對這點感到驚訝，因為普遍觀感認為，市場自今年 1 月以來漲得更誇張、估值更離譜。但實際上似乎改變的，是更多分析師開始宣稱我們正處於泡沫之中。\n\n想想看：今年企業獲利的增長速度甚至快過大盤本身。相比[標普 500 指數](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/index\/GI\/INX)今年迄今 9.9% 的漲幅，該指數過去 12 個月的每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長了 10.4%。換句話說，股市年初以來的漲幅，全由更高的獲利在支撐。\n\n因此，股市的本益比自 1 月以來還略微下降了。\n\n如果說「泡沫」是指市場漲幅不斷超前於企業獲利，那麼今天的我們，並沒有比年初更接近泡沫。然而，在這同樣的 8 個月期間，Google 上關於泡沫的搜尋頻率卻幾乎翻倍。\n\n這顯示出泡沫預言的主觀層面，它與估值過高的客觀層面僅有鬆散的關聯。出於大多難以捉摸的原因，總有些時候——就像現在——分析師更傾向於宣稱泡沫正在形成。諷刺的是，從反向角度來看，市場上預測泡沫即將破裂的聲音愈多，實際上泡沫破裂的可能性反而更小。\n\n![圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6125727\/l\/7ed442bd09cfa8336269bf60bddc7b55.jpg)\n\n圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings\n\n這並不是要否認股市仍極度高估，圖表所列的 10 個估值指標，都在預測股市後續報酬方面有不錯的紀錄，其中大多數已經處在或接近美國歷史上最悲觀的水平。\n\n然而，理解泡沫預言中非客觀、心理層面 的重要性依舊有價值。最需要擔心泡沫破裂的時刻，往往是當市場確實被高估，但「泡沫可能存在」這件事卻不在投資人雷達上的時候。\n\n- [能源危機美元為何漲不動？背後真相是如何？](https:\/\/events.cnyes.com\/feib2026-38454?utm_source=anue&utm_medium=end_usstock_Desktop)\n- 掌握全球財經資訊[點我下載APP](http:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/app\/?utm_source=mweb&utm_medium=HamMenuBanner&utm_campaign=fixed&utm_content=entr)\n\n‌\n\n### 文章標籤\n[美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1 \"美股\")[泡沫](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E6%B3%A1%E6%B2%AB \"泡沫\")[估值](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC \"估值\")[TOP](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/TOP 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\"光纖\")[缺貨潮](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BC%BA%E8%B2%A8%E6%BD%AE \"缺貨潮\")[擴產](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E6%93%B4%E7%94%A2 \"擴產\")[優分析](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%84%AA%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90 \"優分析\")\n- 20:17國際政經\n  \n  [伊朗否認與美對話 稱川普是受到威脅後「撤退」](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394698)\n  \n  [伊朗](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97 \"伊朗\")[川普](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE \"川普\")[TACO](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/TACO \"TACO\")[中東](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1 \"中東\")[戰爭](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E6%88%B0%E7%88%AD \"戰爭\")[談判](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E8%AB%87%E5%88%A4 \"談判\")\n- 20:16國際政經\n  \n  [中東風險降溫 LME銅價自低點反彈](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394586)\n  \n  [銅價](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%8A%85%E5%83%B9 \"銅價\")[銅](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%8A%85 \"銅\")[LME](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/LME \"LME\")[伊朗](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E4%BC%8A%E6%9C%97 \"伊朗\")[中東](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1 \"中東\")[油價](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9 \"油價\")[石油](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9 \"石油\")[美元](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83 \"美元\")[庫存](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%BA%AB%E5%AD%98 \"庫存\")[金屬](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%87%91%E5%B1%AC \"金屬\")[市場](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4 \"市場\")[風險](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA \"風險\")[TOP](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/TOP \"TOP\")\n- 20:15美股\n  \n  [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：Ferrovial SE(FER-US)EPS預估上修至1.2元，預估目標價為70.95元](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394728)\n  \n  [Ferrovial SE-2.93%](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/usstock\/detail\/FER \"Ferrovial SE\")\n  \n  [美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1 \"美股\")[市場預估](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E9%A0%90%E4%BC%B0 \"市場預估\")[EPS](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/EPS \"EPS\")[FER](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/FER \"FER\")\n- 20:15美股\n  \n  [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：華住酒店集團ADR(HTHT-US)EPS預估上修至2.67元，預估目標價為63.28元](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394727)\n  \n  [華住酒店集團ADR-0.79%](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/usstock\/detail\/HTHT \"華住酒店集團ADR\")\n  \n  [美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1 \"美股\")[市場預估](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E9%A0%90%E4%BC%B0 \"市場預估\")[EPS](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/EPS \"EPS\")[HTHT](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/HTHT \"HTHT\")\n- 20:15美股\n  \n  [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：Cheniere Energy Inc.(LNG-US)EPS預估上修至14.23元，預估目標價為279.50元](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394726)\n  \n  [Cheniere Energy Inc.-0.39%](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/usstock\/detail\/LNG \"Cheniere Energy Inc.\")\n  \n  [美股](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1 \"美股\")[市場預估](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E9%A0%90%E4%BC%B0 \"市場預估\")[EPS](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/EPS \"EPS\")[LNG](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/LNG \"LNG\")\n\n‌\n\n![section icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/icon-ai.svg)\n\n### 鉅亨熱AI\n[看更多](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/hotai)\n\n- 熱門\n- 頭條\n- 台股\n- 美股\n\n[*1\\.* 圓點奈米114年度擬議股利為何？](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/aigc\/answer\/%E5%9C%93%E9%BB%9E%E5%A5%88%E7%B1%B311-25574964?utm_campaign=aigc_hot&utm_content=news&utm_term=%E5%9C%93%E9%BB%9E%E5%A5%88%E7%B1%B3114%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E6%93%AC%E8%AD%B0%E8%82%A1%E5%88%A9%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%EF%BC%9F)\n\n[*2\\.* 川普總統宣布延後軍事行動後，國際油價為何應聲重挫超過9%？](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/aigc\/answer\/%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83-25574897?utm_campaign=aigc_hot&utm_content=news&utm_term=%E5%B7%9D%E6%99%AE%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E5%BB%B6%E5%BE%8C%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E8%A1%8C%E5%8B%95%E5%BE%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%87%89%E8%81%B2%E9%87%8D%E6%8C%AB%E8%B6%85%E9%81%8E9%25%EF%BC%9F)\n\n[*3\\.* 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icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/popularRank.svg)\n\n### 人氣排行\n[看更多](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/trending)\n\n- 總覽\n- 台股\n- 美股\n\n日\n\n更多\n\n[*1\\.*又TACO了？川普：已指示暫停攻擊伊朗發電廠及能源設施 為期5天](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394642 \"又TACO了？川普：已指示暫停攻擊伊朗發電廠及能源設施 為期5天\")\n\n[*2\\.*美伊對話釋善意！川普一句話油價崩了 市場情緒瞬間反轉](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394647 \"美伊對話釋善意！川普一句話油價崩了 市場情緒瞬間反轉\")\n\n[*3\\.*伊朗否認與美對話 稱川普是受到威脅後「撤退」](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394698 \"伊朗否認與美對話 稱川普是受到威脅後「撤退」\")\n\n‌\n\n[*4\\.*川普發48小時最後通牒！日韓股市雙熔斷 為何慘陷最大重災區](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394203 \"川普發48小時最後通牒！日韓股市雙熔斷 為何慘陷最大重災區\")\n\n[*5\\.*戰火燒出惡性通膨！伊朗發行面額「1000萬」新鈔 換算只值7美元](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6393946 \"戰火燒出惡性通膨！伊朗發行面額「1000萬」新鈔 換算只值7美元\")\n\n[![ad banner of right side](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/adContent\/25\/xxl\/87bb06b4826238db91bb686ccadde0b1.jpg)](https:\/\/campaign.cnyes.com\/topics\/LegacyAcademy\/?utm_source=cnyes&utm_medium=334x100)\n\n![section icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/editorChoose.svg)\n\n### 主編精選\n[看更多](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/cat\/news24h)\n\n25分鐘前\n\n美股雷達\n\n[輝達攜電力業者打造AI工廠 強化電網與算力整合 ![news cover](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6394731\/s\/19a520ff10e6be8514a38198811f9732.jpg)](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394731)\n\n[輝達-3.15%](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/usstock\/detail\/NVDA \"輝達\")\n\n[輝達](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E8%BC%9D%E9%81%94 \"輝達\")[AI](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/AI \"AI\")\n\n1小時前\n\n台股新聞\n\n[全新董座：光電子出貨達3成為今年主成長引擎 全年仍拚營收雙位數成長 ![news cover](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6394697\/s\/65e9e062d2ae2de68a516e434ba479ad.jpg)](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394697)\n\n[全新-3.70%](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/twstock\/2455 \"全新\")\n\n[AI](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/AI \"AI\")[全新](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E5%85%A8%E6%96%B0 \"全新\")\n\n1小時前\n\n原物料\n\n[中東風險降溫 LME銅價自低點反彈 ![news cover](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6394586\/s\/8ac4a61a90c49c57c0ce83b2b0b2ec12.jpg)](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/id\/6394586)\n\n[銅-2.85%](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/index\/GI\/SPCOMMMCO \"銅\")\n\n[銅價](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%8A%85%E5%83%B9 \"銅價\")[銅](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/tag\/%E9%8A%85 \"銅\")\n\n‌\n\n![section icon](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/anue-lecture.svg)\n\n### 鉅亨講座\n[看更多](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/events)\n\n- 講座\n- 公告\n\n- [2026\/ 03 25 (三) 12:53](https:\/\/events.cnyes.com\/feib2026-38454?utm_source=cnyes&utm_medium=bulletin \"2026匯市大智慧：擺脫短線雜訊 建立核心交易邏輯\")\n  [HOT2026匯市大智慧：擺脫短線雜訊 建立核心交易邏輯](https:\/\/events.cnyes.com\/feib2026-38454?utm_source=cnyes&utm_medium=bulletin \"2026匯市大智慧：擺脫短線雜訊 建立核心交易邏輯\")\n- [2026\/ 03 25 (三) 12:53](https:\/\/campaign.cnyes.com\/lecture_crypto\/?lecture_id=402&utm_medium=ANUE_lecture \"保守理財課：不用盯盤，讓加密貨幣幫你滾出年化30%現金流\")\n  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APP](https:\/\/www.cnyes.com\/mobile\/index_app.htm?utm_source=cnyes&utm_medium=desktop&utm_campaign=desktop_footer)\n- [溫暖送愛心](https:\/\/campaign.cnyes.com\/topics\/love)\n\n‌\n\n![close button](https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/assets\/icons\/close\/modal-icon-close.svg)\n\n【中東局勢】衝突進入第24天，德黑蘭傳出密集爆炸巨響，伊方提出完全關閉荷姆茲海峽回應川普威脅\n\n【中東戰局】伊朗回應川普威脅：完全關閉荷姆茲海峽，打擊以色列所有發電站\n\n香港飛倫敦航班一乘客突然離世，遺體被放置在廚房內，航班繼續飛行13小時，多人反映聞到異味\n\n澳洲華人媽媽們，正在批次生產“廢掉”的下一代\n\n【中東局勢】以色列，發動大規模空襲！高盛最新警告：“第二隻靴子即將掉落！”\n\n【中東局勢】川普：美國已將伊朗從地圖上抹去；伊朗總統回應：威脅和恐嚇只會增強伊朗的團結，荷姆茲海峽對所有人開放，唯獨侵犯伊朗領土者除外\n\n【中東局勢】“荷姆茲決戰”，打響了？\n\n【中東戰局】面對最惡毒48小時威逼，伊朗回答“同歸於盡”\n\n【中東局勢】伊朗、以色列公佈傷亡人數\n\n【中東戰局】“F\\-35被擊中”，伊朗上空到底發生了什麼？","attrs_readable_markdown":"《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。\n\n![cover image of news article](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6125727\/l\/a222b484ecb5c73b298b1024dcc45fe9.jpg)\n\n自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升(圖：Shutterstock)\n\n這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。\n\n‌\n\nHulbert 談到，他的許多客戶對這點感到驚訝，因為普遍觀感認為，市場自今年 1 月以來漲得更誇張、估值更離譜。但實際上似乎改變的，是更多分析師開始宣稱我們正處於泡沫之中。\n\n想想看：今年企業獲利的增長速度甚至快過大盤本身。相比[標普 500 指數](https:\/\/invest.cnyes.com\/index\/GI\/INX)今年迄今 9.9% 的漲幅，該指數過去 12 個月的每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長了 10.4%。換句話說，股市年初以來的漲幅，全由更高的獲利在支撐。\n\n因此，股市的本益比自 1 月以來還略微下降了。\n\n如果說「泡沫」是指市場漲幅不斷超前於企業獲利，那麼今天的我們，並沒有比年初更接近泡沫。然而，在這同樣的 8 個月期間，Google 上關於泡沫的搜尋頻率卻幾乎翻倍。\n\n這顯示出泡沫預言的主觀層面，它與估值過高的客觀層面僅有鬆散的關聯。出於大多難以捉摸的原因，總有些時候——就像現在——分析師更傾向於宣稱泡沫正在形成。諷刺的是，從反向角度來看，市場上預測泡沫即將破裂的聲音愈多，實際上泡沫破裂的可能性反而更小。\n\n![圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings](https:\/\/cimg.cnyes.cool\/prod\/news\/6125727\/l\/7ed442bd09cfa8336269bf60bddc7b55.jpg)\n\n圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings\n\n這並不是要否認股市仍極度高估，圖表所列的 10 個估值指標，都在預測股市後續報酬方面有不錯的紀錄，其中大多數已經處在或接近美國歷史上最悲觀的水平。\n\n然而，理解泡沫預言中非客觀、心理層面 的重要性依舊有價值。最需要擔心泡沫破裂的時刻，往往是當市場確實被高估，但「泡沫可能存在」這件事卻不在投資人雷達上的時候。","meta_canonical":null}

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Meta Title	為什麼這麼多投資人認為美股正在形成泡沫？ \| 鉅亨網 - 美股雷達
Meta Description	《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。
Meta Canonical	null
Boilerpipe Text	《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升(圖：Shutterstock) 這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。 ‌ Hulbert 談到，他的許多客戶對這點感到驚訝，因為普遍觀感認為，市場自今年 1 月以來漲得更誇張、估值更離譜。但實際上似乎改變的，是更多分析師開始宣稱我們正處於泡沫之中。想想看：今年企業獲利的增長速度甚至快過大盤本身。相比標普 500 指數今年迄今 9.9% 的漲幅，該指數過去 12 個月的每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長了 10.4%。換句話說，股市年初以來的漲幅，全由更高的獲利在支撐。因此，股市的本益比自 1 月以來還略微下降了。如果說「泡沫」是指市場漲幅不斷超前於企業獲利，那麼今天的我們，並沒有比年初更接近泡沫。然而，在這同樣的 8 個月期間，Google 上關於泡沫的搜尋頻率卻幾乎翻倍。這顯示出泡沫預言的主觀層面，它與估值過高的客觀層面僅有鬆散的關聯。出於大多難以捉摸的原因，總有些時候——就像現在——分析師更傾向於宣稱泡沫正在形成。諷刺的是，從反向角度來看，市場上預測泡沫即將破裂的聲音愈多，實際上泡沫破裂的可能性反而更小。圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings 這並不是要否認股市仍極度高估，圖表所列的 10 個估值指標，都在預測股市後續報酬方面有不錯的紀錄，其中大多數已經處在或接近美國歷史上最悲觀的水平。然而，理解泡沫預言中非客觀、心理層面的重要性依舊有價值。最需要擔心泡沫破裂的時刻，往往是當市場確實被高估，但「泡沫可能存在」這件事卻不在投資人雷達上的時候。
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Readable Markdown	《MarketWatch》專欄作家 Mark Hulbert 周一 (25 日) 撰文指出，今日的股市估值並沒有比年初更高。 ![cover image of news article](https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6125727/l/a222b484ecb5c73b298b1024dcc45fe9.jpg) 自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升(圖：Shutterstock) 這並不代表股市不被高估，而是說自去年底以來，估值水平並沒有進一步被推升。 ‌ Hulbert 談到，他的許多客戶對這點感到驚訝，因為普遍觀感認為，市場自今年 1 月以來漲得更誇張、估值更離譜。但實際上似乎改變的，是更多分析師開始宣稱我們正處於泡沫之中。想想看：今年企業獲利的增長速度甚至快過大盤本身。相比[標普 500 指數](https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/INX)今年迄今 9.9% 的漲幅，該指數過去 12 個月的每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長了 10.4%。換句話說，股市年初以來的漲幅，全由更高的獲利在支撐。因此，股市的本益比自 1 月以來還略微下降了。如果說「泡沫」是指市場漲幅不斷超前於企業獲利，那麼今天的我們，並沒有比年初更接近泡沫。然而，在這同樣的 8 個月期間，Google 上關於泡沫的搜尋頻率卻幾乎翻倍。這顯示出泡沫預言的主觀層面，它與估值過高的客觀層面僅有鬆散的關聯。出於大多難以捉摸的原因，總有些時候——就像現在——分析師更傾向於宣稱泡沫正在形成。諷刺的是，從反向角度來看，市場上預測泡沫即將破裂的聲音愈多，實際上泡沫破裂的可能性反而更小。 ![圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings](https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6125727/l/7ed442bd09cfa8336269bf60bddc7b55.jpg) 圖片來源：Hulbert Ratings 這並不是要否認股市仍極度高估，圖表所列的 10 個估值指標，都在預測股市後續報酬方面有不錯的紀錄，其中大多數已經處在或接近美國歷史上最悲觀的水平。然而，理解泡沫預言中非客觀、心理層面的重要性依舊有價值。最需要擔心泡沫破裂的時刻，往往是當市場確實被高估，但「泡沫可能存在」這件事卻不在投資人雷達上的時候。
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