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You can say that I love controversy. Posts can get technical! Abuse of comments may be blocked. Subscribe to Telegram for updates: <https://t.me/ftrlsg> # Why are fares going up? [](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya?source=post_page---byline--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [yuuka](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya?source=post_page---byline--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) 11 min read · Sep 23, 2023 \-- 3 Listen Share Simply put, because we can’t keep costs under control. It’s that time of the year again for another fare increase. This time, this is possibly the single largest increase on record, at up to 11 cents per trip. This makes the entry fare \$1.09; the largest single jump in value ever. And there could be more: out of a 22% fare increase requested, only 7% was granted. [Bus, train fares to increase by 10 to 11 cents from Dec 23 amid rising energy prices, inflation SINGAPORE - Public transport fare increases this year will more than double last year's hike with fares going up 10 to… www.todayonline.com](https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/bus-train-fares-increase-10-11-cents-dec-23-amid-rising-energy-prices-inflation-2257371?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) What do I blame? I blame inertia. Although it is heartening to see that the PTC has started righting some injustices of the pass system by lowering the cost of hybrid concession passes. Put together with the fare increase, this makes concession passes a much better deal for eligible commuters. Still, overall, this is a bad look. ## Things get better There are things that have improved, mainly on the concession pass side. Firstly, hybrid passes have been further discounted… except for working adults. There is also no change to modal concession passes, though this is a good thing if we want to avoid modal lock-in. Press enter or click to view image in full size ![]() source PTC This goes some way in fixing the problems with the [original hybrid pass regime.](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/is-the-buffet-party-over-32367ed683) Hybrid passes now provide a significant enough discount over two separate individual mode passes, but if I’m going to be frank, the premium of a hybrid pass is still much higher than I would like. There is also the question of the tracking between the Adult Monthly Travel Pass and senior citizen hybrid concession being dropped. Previously, it was \$128/\$64. But not any more, with the cost of the senior citizen concession dropping to \$58 while no change is made to the cost of the Adult Monthly Pass, which remains at \$128. Though at least a new concession for low-wage workers at \$96 is being introduced, this one tracking the Adult Monthly Pass at a 25% discount. Considering that Workfare Transport cardholders already get a 25% discount off regular fares, this basically just decreases the effective cap that they pay. The only thing I regret in this part is that they should have kept the track for the Adult Monthly Pass and lowered its cost to \$116; the low-wage workers’ pass may also be cheaper at \$87 after the 25% discount. While this is welcome, I can’t help but think that perhaps, maybe, the next round of fare increases may be more easily digestible if concession pass prices were not touched; or at least even to lower the cost of the adult monthly pass. It would give off less of an impression that the working class is being nickeled and dimed. ## The Sword of Damocles I can’t help but think that this is the exact scenario that economists warn of with regard to an ageing population being supported by a diminishing working class, as well as the exact Sword of Damocles situation [I warned about last year.](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/the-true-cost-of-express-bus-service-e5a5f2e7988d) Alas, nothing has changed, and we’re staring down a relatively large rollover to 2024, which will likely see a similarly large increase and rollover to 2025. Half of Singaporeans travel on some form of concession; I would expect this number to increase as more Singaporeans reach 60 and thus qualify for senior citizen concession while still part of the workforce, considering that the official retirement age is 63 and people can continue to work even after that up until they turn 68. I recognize that the pass reform I mentioned above, supposedly a good thing, actually increases the burden on the adult commuter too, since they’d have to pay more to backfill the concessions given to the other half of the population. Worse still, of course, is the 15% of fare increase quantum that has been deferred to future exercises. Now, of course one could expect deflationary pressure, which we may already be seeing, to counteract that quantum. However, I doubt that it will be enough. But there can be some things that can be done without raising headline fares for many concessionary commuters, as well as to minimize the impact on adult fare payers. The PTC **MUST** look into whether it can “spend” its fare quantum on such changes before considering future headline fare increases. For one, the PTC can consider abolishing the 7.2km cap on concession fares, such that they pay up to the 40km scale adults pay. Those travelling within the neighbourhood or even the next town over won’t be affected, but those going longer distances will be. Another consideration could be reducing or eliminating the pre-7.45am discount for students, since at concessionary fares they effectively get free rides. Or perhaps we could even go the other way, by instead asking people to pay more across all modes if their journey starts or ends during defined peak periods. This can either be a straight surcharge, or scaled depending on travel distance. Something akin to Travel Smart Journeys can also be done by waiving the peak surcharge for those who choose to use less congested routes (like for example the TEL). There is some precedent for this, where senior citizen concession used to only be valid after morning peak hours— I surmise they paid full fare in peak hours. However, with the prevalence of traditional working hours, this may not work well. We should also be more aggressive with slapping the express moniker on bus routes, and increase the express fares, to make long-distance bus passengers pay their fair way for the increased resources they use. Would this, though, create a situation where fewer use express services due to increase costs? Look at City Directs. ## Inertia It is [projected](https://www.ptc.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/fre-2023-annex-a-and-annex-b-pdf-\(297-kb\).pdf) that a larger share of increased revenue from this round of fare increases will go to the LTA to pay for bus operations. However, I doubt that \$74.2 million, although a lot in light of the ~\$63 million given to SBST and SMRT Trains, will be able to make more than a few scratches in terms of the billion-dollar bus operation deficit. And perhaps this may also be slightly more than the ratio of bus to train passengers. More importantly, we cannot run away from the fact that buses generally have higher operating costs. [In 2014, the PTC specifically targeted the bulk of increased revenue from a fare increase to buses](https://www.ptc.gov.sg/newsroom/news-releases/newsroom-view/ptc-approves-about-half-of-the-6.6-fare-cap-for-2013-fare-increase-rolls-over-remainder-for-2014-exercise), with over \$9 of the additional revenue given to buses for every dollar spent on rail. I trust modern numbers may not be as exaggerated, especially considering the rail reliability focus since driving up rail operations costs, but that question still remains. Locally, the TEL operation contract is worth \$1.7 billion for nine years, and is expected to serve half a million passengers a day. I would be surprised if SMRT would be able to make the entire sum by 2029 considering how much the TEL has underperformed, anyway, considering its lack of critical mass and having to spread the high cost of subway maintenance across lesser passengers. The fixed cost of powering station lights and ventilation will not change whether a line has 160k passengers or 600k passengers. For what it’s worth, we can also benchmark it against Tower Transit’s \$1.03 billion bid for both the Bulim and Sembawang-Yishun bus packages for five years. At 56 routes, this is worth [approximately 15% of the bus market.](https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/singapore/story20230917-1433805) But consider that Tower Transit needs a much larger number of employees to serve a similar amount of passengers, if we crudely take 15% of the market to mean 15% of the 3.4 million daily bus riders. Even if costs work out similar, where does the manpower come from? This could get even worse. Will the LTA progressively dismantle [whatever “temporary” bus networks](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/shuffling-the-deck-7805869da8e5) set up in Tengah when the JRL opens in 2027–28, or will the bus network be designed to specifically leave a JRL-shaped hole for 2027–28, or will nothing be done and we continue to see bus networks parallel the JRL once it opens? And will it be able to [shift cross-island travel](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/the-far-reaching-consequences-of-the-crl-3eaac525da73) from the long-distance bus services to the CRL come 2030? Or worse, we view MRT lines as a tool for increasing property values and we’re doing this to pump the housing market. If that’s the case, if we want to view MRT as a property tool and not as public transport, then perhaps we ought to slam the brakes on MRT development, so as to avoid further excess of infrastructure that we have to pay for maintenance in taxes and fares. Or we just suck it up, telling ourselves that we’ll make up the increased fares in increased rental revenue or home valuations. But if we view the MRT as public transport, then reform becomes non-negotiable. If the Transport and Finance Ministries do not want to continue paying out [hundreds of millions in fare subsidies](https://www.mot.gov.sg/news/Details/public-transport-vouchers-available-to-provide-support-for-lower-income-households) and billions more in operations subsidies, then pressure must come from government to see the LTA engage in public transport management reform. Asking people to quit will not work if the wrong questions are being asked in the first place. ## Hobson’s choice People don’t like bus service changes and talking about reform, because that means changes to their daily routines. But having these uncomfortable conversations are part of why I write, after all. And I believe such levels of fare increases, and the threat of more, must force the issue. The necessity of reform must be visible to both taxpayers and farepayers, who would otherwise pay the costs of a bloated, unsustainable trainsport system. Herein lies the opportunity for network reform to demonstrate that the LTA is able to keep a lid on operational cost control. I don’t use the word “rationalization” because [I believe that the LTA needs to have a greater conversation within itself](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/ever-closer-union-continued-bb83381796e5) on how it administers the public transport system. The long and the short of it is, with new MRT lines, the LTA should not be asking, “people are taking less buses, what do we do?” It should be asking, “we won’t need these buses, how can we better use them?” My pitch to management is that well-executed planning reform will change perspectives and allow them to extract better efficiency from the overall public transport system, by making the most of built infrastructure as well as moving around bus service to serve new needs. Somewhere along the line, it will also be possible to extract operational cost savings as well, since new MRT lines serve plenty of needs the bus network used to meet. I notice that there is a sentiment that the car replacement bus types will stop taking public transport once you ask them to switch to an MRT line, whether by transfer or by walking to a train station. That’s not wrong. Humans are lazy. [But as Alon Levy points out, this “soup kitchen” attitude does nothing for improving public transport.](https://pedestrianobservations.com/2023/07/23/how-to-ensure-you-wont-have-public-transportation/) Without a doubt, removing highway bus services will save money, especially since we’ve considered they cost more to operate than the MRT. After all, withdrawing Service 971 was justified, based on the fact that you can change buses at Orchard Road. And the 700 withdrawal was likely predicated on the idea that the reduced bus ridership is spread out amongst other services and that a thinning out of traffic is necessary anyway. Can we not operate these at all? Easily just half of the nearly 50 duties of Service 190 can be split between new Choa Chu Kang and Tengah service, improving not only intertown transport but intratown too. Service 960 can be cut back to loop at Bukit Panjang and feed the MRT there, perhaps even as a subsidiary variant of Service 961, saving loads of service hours that could be given to Woodlands residents. And then just ask SBST to bring back 8 more trains on the DTL. [Which they had in 2018 anyway, so we know the system is capable of it.](http://web.archive.org/web/20180228044515/http://www.sbstransit.com.sg:80/transport/trpt_dtl_1st.aspx) ## Hard truths I believe reform should be guided by some questions that the ministries can pose to the LTA’s senior management and downwards. The first question for the LTA is what reform should look like. [Professor David Levinson, now of the University of Sydney](https://transportist.org/2011/09/15/towards_financially_sustainabl/), proposes a model with three types of services — “core”, “feeder”, and “welfare” services, with all bus services **regularly** reviewed to see which group they belong in. Politicians are asked to fund marginal “welfare” services from general funding and accept that this is a utility cost, or they would be cancelled. This is apart from “core” services (here MRT and major corridor trunks) and “feeder” services. I might argue that in places where we have rail service, expressway services paralleling an MRT line without providing meaningful coverage benefit may well be a “welfare” service. Well, while the LTA gets all its revenues from central government, perhaps this could change. CDCs, town councils, and other local entities can be persuaded to either pay into the Bus Contracting fund to maintain service, or even outright subsidize private bus drivers to run Premium routes ([after school duties](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/seven-thousand-9153a180e379)) through their neighbourhoods to replace routes withdrawn in favour of rail expansion. The second question is, what kind of routes will need to be reinvented — not only what routes are removed — with the arrival of MRT service. This second bit may be harder if certain travel patterns rely on a given direct bus service, like the NUS High student who relies on Service 196 to get to Marine Parade; in contrast many other students might only use Service 196 to get to Buona Vista MRT and the Circle Line. Reforms may be needed to improve reliability of the service or even to reduce congestion at Buona Vista station. But in pursuing modal integration, we must not be afraid to crack some eggs to make an omelette. If Service 196 passengers, for example, can benefit from a route overhaul to better serve specific subgroups, even if it has to be done at the expense of a small minority, then it must be done. And more importantly, these plans have to be executed with the opening of the new MRT line, be it on Day One or within a month. Not waiting for years while the bleeding continues. The final question is, how much are they willing to plan and build infrastructure? International cases of network reform have revolved around new rail projects building large bus transfer hubs, and buses being truncated to these hubs to feed the new rail projects. In the Singapore context, this can mean building bus terminals as part of new train stations. Or pushing forward the construction of ITHs such that they can open with or near the opening of new rail lines. New bus service and new multimodal connections cannot happen without infrastructure. [Regretfully, however, this has not happened with many recent MRT projects.](https://medium.com/from-the-red-line/the-springleaf-bus-hub-a5eaaf5076ac) The best case scenario is that a new MRT station is constructed at an existing bus hub. Or URA drops a Commercial+Residential zone near the station, at which a bus interchange can be built as part of an integrated development. But when that is done, is up in the air. This of course does not include the greater administrative and market design reform that we have to undertake, to permit further optimization of our public transport at an engineering level— no “mays” or “ifs” here if you ask me — but this topic may deserve its own blog post. ## Going the wrong way? Of course, as an honorable mention, I must point out that many world cities are doing the opposite from what we are doing. Malaysia has the [My50 pass in the Klang Valley,](https://myrapid.com.my/our-products/my50/) and as testament to the importance of reform, [Minister Loke has also mentioned the need to “integrate” bus services in the Klang Valley.](https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/09/12/anthony-loke-says-bus-services-in-klang-valley-to-be-integrated/90421) And in Taiwan, the Republic’s Executive Yuan has implemented an [NT\$1200 all-you-can-eat transport pass for the Greater Taipei ar](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/07/02/2003802523)ea. Similar passes at lower price points exist in other regions of Taiwan, ostensibly to manage the cost of living and the commute from further regions. At least, with a hard border, this is not such a big issue here with the longest public transport trip still remaining below \$2.50. Most infamously, there was the [9-Euro-Ticket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9-Euro-Ticket) in Germany, and its successor the 49 euro Deutschlandticket. Implementing this placed an unexpected amount of strain on [underfunded regional transportation](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-deutsche-bahn-battles-crisis-amid-49-ticket-launch/a-65628256), even if this sounds like a populist move. The lesson here, though, seems to be that you can’t drive ridership without infrastructure investment, especially at fares so low politicians [bicker about](https://www.iamexpat.de/expat-info/german-expat-news/transport-ministers-say-future-of-the-deutschlandticket-is-in-danger) who should subsidize it. Of course, it has to be pointed out that while other countries are trying to lower the cost of living, the Singapore government has opted to increase sticker costs, without examining the policy failures that even got us here in the first place. So, well, captions please. > Like what you read? Join the [Telegram Channel](https://t.me/ftrlsg) for updates\! 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You can say that I love controversy. Posts can get technical! Abuse of comments may be blocked. Subscribe to Telegram for updates: <https://t.me/ftrlsg> [](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya?source=post_page---post_author_info--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya?source=post_page---post_author_info--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Written by yuuka](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya?source=post_page---post_author_info--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [664 followers](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya/followers?source=post_page---post_author_info--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) ·[8 following](https://medium.com/@yuuka-miya/following?source=post_page---post_author_info--21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) Sometimes I am who I am, but sometimes I am not who I am not. ## Responses (3) See all responses [Help](https://help.medium.com/hc/en-us?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Status](https://medium.statuspage.io/?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [About](https://medium.com/about?autoplay=1&source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Careers](https://medium.com/jobs-at-medium/work-at-medium-959d1a85284e?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Press](mailto:pressinquiries@medium.com) [Blog](https://blog.medium.com/?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Privacy](https://policy.medium.com/medium-privacy-policy-f03bf92035c9?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Rules](https://policy.medium.com/medium-rules-30e5502c4eb4?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Terms](https://policy.medium.com/medium-terms-of-service-9db0094a1e0f?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------) [Text to speech](https://speechify.com/medium?source=post_page-----21b760e93ee8---------------------------------------)