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Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 192 (from laksa162)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa192.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical, ml_categories_json AS ml_categories_json, ml_types_json AS ml_types_json, ml_intent_types_json AS ml_intent_types_json, meta_language AS meta_language, attrs_author AS attrs_author, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(attrs_publish_time), 0) AS attrs_publish_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(attrs_original_publish_time), 0) AS attrs_original_publish_time, ifNull(attrs_is_republished, 0) AS attrs_is_republished, ifNull(attrs_nr_words, 0) AS attrs_nr_words, ifNull(attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words, 0) AS attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words, ifNull(body_ext_links_number, 0) AS body_ext_links_number, ifNull(body_int_links_number, 0) AS body_int_links_number, ifNull(meta_nofollow, 0) AS meta_nofollow, ifNull(meta_noarchive, 0) AS meta_noarchive, ifNull(props_was_rendered, 0) AS props_was_rendered, ifNull(src_redirect, \'\') AS src_redirect, ifNull(download_time_msec, 0) AS download_time_msec, ifNull(download_ttfb_msec, 0) AS download_ttfb_msec, ifNull(download_size, 0) AS download_size FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://finance.yahoo.com/video/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://finance.yahoo.com/video/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html","crawl_time":1776981222,"first_indexed_time":1757542324,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,yahoo!finance,\/video\/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html s443","src_root_hash":"3401813433841292792","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Investors may be underpricing odds of tariffs being overturned","meta_descriptions":["The US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal. Raymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Yahoo Finance Video\nAND\nJulie Hyman\nSeptember 10, 2025\nThe US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal.\nRaymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy.\nTo watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more\nMarket Catalysts\n.\n00:00\nSpeaker A\na lot of tariff headlines to unpack here Ed. Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to?\n00:23\nSpeaker B\nYeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here.\n01:54\nSpeaker A\nAnd it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely.\n01:58\nSpeaker B\nUm, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there.\n02:24\nSpeaker A\nSo that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that?\n02:59\nSpeaker B\nYeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. The unbounded nature of the tariffs that President Trump has done, I think is going to be a big question for this court.\nTERMS\nAND\nPRIVACY_POLICY\nPrivacy & Cookie Settings\nMore Info\nRECOMMENDED_STORIES\nMSG_NO_NEWS","attrs_markdown":"SOMETHING\\_WENT\\_WRONG\n\n[SKIP\\_TO\\_NAVIGATION](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html#navigation-container)  [SKIP\\_NAVIGATION](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html#nimbus-app)  [SKIP\\_DOCK](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/investors-may-underpricing-odds-tariffs-173000975.html#right-rail)\n\n# YAHOO\\_FINANCE\n- [News](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/)\n  - [Today's news](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/)\n  - [US](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/us\/)\n  - [Politics](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/)\n  - [World](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/world\/)\n  - [Weather](https:\/\/weather.yahoo.com\/)\n  - [Climate change](https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/issues\/climate-change\/)\n  - 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[Watch Now](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/live\/)\n\n...\n\nOUR\\_PARTNERS\n\n### U.S. markets closed\nUS Markets\n\nUS Markets\n\nEUROPE Markets\n\nASIA Markets\n\nCRYPTOCURRENCIES\n\nRATES\n\nCOMMODITIES\n\nCURRENCIES\n\nU.S. markets closed\n\n[S\\&P 500](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EGSPC\/)\n\n7,108.40\n\n\\-29.50\n\n\\-0.41%\n\n[Dow 30](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EDJI\/)\n\n49,310.32\n\n\\-179.71\n\n\\-0.36%\n\n[Nasdaq](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EIXIC\/)\n\n24,438.50\n\n\\-219.06\n\n\\-0.89%\n\n[Russell 2000](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5ERUT\/)\n\n2,775.10\n\n\\-10.28\n\n\\-0.37%\n\n[VIX](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/%5EVIX\/)\n\n19\\.31\n\n\\+0.39\n\n\\+2.06%\n\n[Gold](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/GC%3DF\/)\n\n4,708.60\n\n\\-44.40\n\n\\-0.93%\n\n[Bitcoin USD](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/BTC-USD\/)\n\n78,025.60\n\n\\-769.16\n\n\\-0.98%\n\n[Crude Oil](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/CL%3DF\/)\n\n97\\.00\n\n\\+4.04\n\n\\+4.35%\n\nADVERTISEMENT\n\n[![Yahoo Finance Video](https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/nt5dGx4HiuaxJyO1G5ipxw--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIzMjtoPTQ4\/https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/os\/creatr-uploaded-images\/2020-12\/02246f50-3412-11eb-bfdd-de89f8b3b8b8)](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/ \"Yahoo Finance Video\")\n\n# Investors may be underpricing odds of tariffs being overturned\n\n[Yahoo Finance Video](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/author\/yahoo-finance-video)  AND [Julie Hyman](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/author\/julie-hyman)\n\nSeptember 10, 2025\n\nThe US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal.\n\nRaymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy.\n\nTo watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more [Market Catalysts](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/videos\/series\/market-catalysts\/).\n\nVIDEO\\_TRANSCRIPT\n\n00:00 Speaker A\n\na lot of tariff headlines to unpack here Ed. Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to?\n\n00:23 Speaker B\n\nYeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here.\n\n01:54 Speaker A\n\nAnd it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely.\n\n01:58 Speaker B\n\nUm, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there.\n\n02:24 Speaker A\n\nSo that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that?\n\n02:59 Speaker B\n\nYeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. 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Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to?\n\n00:23 Speaker B\n\nYeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here.\n\n01:54 Speaker A\n\nAnd it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely.\n\n01:58 Speaker B\n\nUm, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there.\n\n02:24 Speaker A\n\nSo that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that?\n\n02:59 Speaker B\n\nYeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. The unbounded nature of the tariffs that President Trump has done, I think is going to be a big question for this court.\n\n[TERMS](https:\/\/guce.yahoo.com\/terms?locale=en-US)  AND [PRIVACY\\_POLICY](https:\/\/guce.yahoo.com\/privacy-policy?locale=en-US)\n\n[Privacy & Cookie Settings](https:\/\/guce.yahoo.com\/privacy-settings?locale=en-US)\n\n[More Info](https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/more-info)\n## RECOMMENDED\\_STORIES","meta_canonical":null,"ml_categories_json":"{\"\/Finance\":990,\"\/Finance\/Investing\":975,\"\/Finance\/Investing\/Stocks_and_Bonds\":621,\"\/Law_and_Government\":125,\"\/Law_and_Government\/Legal\":123,\"\/Law_and_Government\/Legal\/Business_and_Corporate_Law\":117}","ml_types_json":"{\"\/Article\":895,\"\/Article\/News_Update\":868}","ml_intent_types_json":"{\"Informational\":996}","meta_language":"en-us","attrs_author":"Yahoo Finance Video","attrs_publish_time":1757525400,"attrs_original_publish_time":1757525400,"attrs_is_republished":0,"attrs_nr_words":"2531","attrs_boilerpipe_nr_words":"865","body_ext_links_number":13,"body_int_links_number":612,"meta_nofollow":0,"meta_noarchive":0,"props_was_rendered":1,"src_redirect":"","download_time_msec":496,"download_ttfb_msec":379,"download_size":135278}

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Investors may be underpricing odds of tariffs being overturned

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The US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal. Raymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts.

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Yahoo Finance Video AND Julie Hyman September 10, 2025 The US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal. Raymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts . 00:00 Speaker A a lot of tariff headlines to unpack here Ed. Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to? 00:23 Speaker B Yeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here. 01:54 Speaker A And it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely. 01:58 Speaker B Um, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there. 02:24 Speaker A So that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that? 02:59 Speaker B Yeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. The unbounded nature of the tariffs that President Trump has done, I think is going to be a big question for this court. TERMS AND PRIVACY_POLICY Privacy & Cookie Settings More Info RECOMMENDED_STORIES MSG_NO_NEWS

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OUR\_PARTNERS ### U.S. markets closed US Markets US Markets EUROPE Markets ASIA Markets CRYPTOCURRENCIES RATES COMMODITIES CURRENCIES U.S. markets closed [S\&P 500](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/) 7,108.40 \-29.50 \-0.41% [Dow 30](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/) 49,310.32 \-179.71 \-0.36% [Nasdaq](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/) 24,438.50 \-219.06 \-0.89% [Russell 2000](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ERUT/) 2,775.10 \-10.28 \-0.37% [VIX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) 19\.31 \+0.39 \+2.06% [Gold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/) 4,708.60 \-44.40 \-0.93% [Bitcoin USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/) 78,025.60 \-769.16 \-0.98% [Crude Oil](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/) 97\.00 \+4.04 \+4.35% ADVERTISEMENT [![Yahoo Finance Video](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/nt5dGx4HiuaxJyO1G5ipxw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIzMjtoPTQ4/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2020-12/02246f50-3412-11eb-bfdd-de89f8b3b8b8)](https://finance.yahoo.com/ "Yahoo Finance Video") # Investors may be underpricing odds of tariffs being overturned [Yahoo Finance Video](https://finance.yahoo.com/author/yahoo-finance-video) AND [Julie Hyman](https://finance.yahoo.com/author/julie-hyman) September 10, 2025 The US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal. Raymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more [Market Catalysts](https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/market-catalysts/). VIDEO\_TRANSCRIPT 00:00 Speaker A a lot of tariff headlines to unpack here Ed. Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to? 00:23 Speaker B Yeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here. 01:54 Speaker A And it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely. 01:58 Speaker B Um, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there. 02:24 Speaker A So that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that? 02:59 Speaker B Yeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. The unbounded nature of the tariffs that President Trump has done, I think is going to be a big question for this court. 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[![Yahoo Finance Video](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/nt5dGx4HiuaxJyO1G5ipxw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIzMjtoPTQ4/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2020-12/02246f50-3412-11eb-bfdd-de89f8b3b8b8)](https://finance.yahoo.com/ "Yahoo Finance Video") [Yahoo Finance Video](https://finance.yahoo.com/author/yahoo-finance-video) AND [Julie Hyman](https://finance.yahoo.com/author/julie-hyman) September 10, 2025 The US Supreme Court will hear President Trump's appeal of a lower court's ruling that the president's global tariffs are illegal. Raymond James managing director Ed Mills joins Market Catalysts to discuss possible resolutions for Trump's tariff case and what they could mean for markets and the US economy. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more [Market Catalysts](https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/market-catalysts/). 00:00 Speaker A a lot of tariff headlines to unpack here Ed. Um, but sort of from the market's perspective, we seem to be looking through the tariffs at this point. When we look at all these tariff headlines, what do you think is sort of most important? How do we sort of pull out from the noise, what we really should be paying attention to? 00:23 Speaker B Yeah, Julie, great question. So what I've told folks here at Raymond James all year long is that the president has a lot of different authorities related to tariffs. Um, I don't necessarily think using Ipa for all of the broad tariffs that he's put on uh is consistent with the statute, consistent with who controls purse strings uh under the Constitution. And so what I've told folks is that the process might change, the outcome is likely to be the same. If the president does get struck down on Ipa, he probably switches over to his authority under the 1974 Trade Act, known as Section 122 authority, a blanket 15% for up to 150 days. He could go back to the Smooth Holly Act of 1930 and do a blanket 50% tariff if he wants and restarts this legal process. To me, the biggest question that I get from investors here at Raymond James has been, will these tariffs be refunded? Is there a benefit to those companies that get that refund? And is there an impact to Treasury markets? If we're sending out hundreds of billions of dollars back, is that a need to reissue a lot of Treasuries? Is there going to be a steepening of the yield curve with an unexpected dump of uh kind of Treasuries coming into the market. To me, that's where I think the market conversation should be focused, uh and that's where I've been uh guiding clients here. 01:54 Speaker A And it and it sounds like you think that's unlikely. 01:58 Speaker B Um, I think it's I think clients think it's unlikely. I did a uh survey uh last week, got 200 plus client responses and 20% of them thought that these tariffs are going to be uh refunded. I'm probably closer to 50% here, Julie. So, um I I think that's probably one of the biggest mismatches out there. 02:24 Speaker A So that's definitely something to keep an eye on because obviously, it's not priced in, right? That there would be and it's also sort of difficult to determine if that would be um a net benefit to the market, right? Because the market has sort of seemed to wrapped wrapped its head around tariffs as is, right? So then if you've got this, would it actually be positive? Would there be some negative knock on effects to the Treasury market as you point out? I mean, how are you thinking through that? 02:59 Speaker B Yeah, it's it's a great question, Julie. So, I think that there is the sense that uh we're in a more stable period and and we'll take a stable period. Um I do think that we are going to have these tariffs regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. I do think because of where we look at the fiscal picture, if there is a sense that these tariffs are going away, uh does that change some of the bond market dynamics here? Uh and probably a final thing that is important to look at here, Julie, is that the court case that's going to the Supreme Court, uh has been a consolidated set of cases uh that was done by this appeals court. And so you could have easily a split decision. There are the fentanyl immigration related tariffs. I think there's a stronger argument there that you can use emergency economic powers uh that were built built on a national security concern and uphold those versus the reciprocal tariffs, which is what we most of the time talk about, which uh the courts have been much more skeptical about because there's not that same level of national security emergency that has been identified here. They have not been bounded. They don't have a structure around it. And so you go back to the last time we had some court cases back in the 1970s about it, uh where the court upheld a decision by Richard Nixon to do an across-the-board tariff because it was only for six months and because it was limited to 10%. The unbounded nature of the tariffs that President Trump has done, I think is going to be a big question for this court. [TERMS](https://guce.yahoo.com/terms?locale=en-US) AND [PRIVACY\_POLICY](https://guce.yahoo.com/privacy-policy?locale=en-US) [Privacy & Cookie Settings](https://guce.yahoo.com/privacy-settings?locale=en-US) [More Info](https://finance.yahoo.com/more-info) ## RECOMMENDED\_STORIES

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