🕷️ Crawler Inspector

URL Lookup

Direct Parameter Lookup

Raw Queries and Responses

1. Shard Calculation

Query:

Response:

Calculated Shard: 76 (from laksa107)

2. Crawled Status Check

Query:

curl -X POST \
  'http://laksa076.int.ahrefs:8124/' \
  -H 'Content-Type: text/plain' \
  -H 'X-ClickHouse-Database: crawler3' \
  -H 'Authorization: Basic YXBpOg==' \
  -d 'SELECT getAhrefsURLFromUnparsed(src_unparsed) AS found_url, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(download_stamp), 0) AS crawl_time, ifNull(toUnixTimestamp(props_url_first_seen), 0) AS first_indexed_time, download_http_code AS http_code, src_unparsed AS src_unparsed, src_root_hash AS src_root_hash, history_drop_reason AS history_drop_reason, meta_title AS meta_title, meta_descriptions AS meta_descriptions, attrs_boilerpipe_text AS attrs_boilerpipe_text, attrs_markdown AS attrs_markdown, attrs_readable_markdown AS attrs_readable_markdown, meta_canonical AS meta_canonical FROM crawler3.page_info_local FINAL PREWHERE (src_root_hash, src_unparsed) IN ((getAhrefsRootHashFromUnparsed(getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://dexter.substack.com/p/trade-war-3ab\')), getAhrefsUnparsedNoserviceFromURL(\'https://dexter.substack.com/p/trade-war-3ab\'))) FORMAT JSONEachRow'

Response:

{"found_url":"https:\/\/dexter.substack.com\/p\/trade-war-3ab","crawl_time":1772481068,"first_indexed_time":0,"http_code":200,"src_unparsed":"com,substack!dexter,\/p\/trade-war-3ab s443","src_root_hash":"14862242593741677076","history_drop_reason":null,"meta_title":"Trade War - by Dexter Roberts - Trade War","meta_descriptions":["China appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. But USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%."],"attrs_boilerpipe_text":"Welcome to the 294th edition of Trade War.\nChina appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again.\nBeijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. $112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz.\n“Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers”\nCentral challenge for the US is not China bending the rules\nMust-read newsletter:\nSemafor China\nfrom Andy Browne\nChina appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs.\nTrump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by\nfirst threatening\nto impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent.\nThat makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent,\naccording to\nan estimate by Morgan Stanley.\nThing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer\nannounced\nthat the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range.\nThe U.S. government was already\ninvestigating\nwhether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect,  COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful.\nNow the Department of Commerce has announced that it is\nconsidering\nrevoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly.\nChina has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.”\nBeijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to\n“shift responsibility”\nor “provoke trouble.”\nThis is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce.\nNow everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again.\nSome of the that we’ve seen recently:\nTrump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires.\nTrump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan.\nThen on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address.","attrs_markdown":"# [Trade War](https:\/\/dexter.substack.com\/)\nSubscribe\n\nSign in\n\n# Trade War\n### Newsletter 294 - Feb. 29, 2026\n[Dexter Roberts](https:\/\/substack.com\/@dexter)\n\nMar 01, 2026\n\n∙ Paid\n\n4\n\n2\n\nShare\n\nTrade War is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.\n\nWelcome to the 294th edition of Trade War.\n\nChina appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again.\n\nBeijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. \\$112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz.\n\n#### Notable\/In depth ~\n- “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers”\n- Central challenge for the US is not China bending the rules\n- Must-read newsletter: ***[Semafor China](https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/newsletter\/02\/24\/2026\/semafor-china-update-not-reset?utm_source=headernewsletterlink&utm_medium=china)*** from Andy Browne\n### **China wins with Court ruling against Trump tariffs**\nChina appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs.\n\nTrump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by [first threatening](https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/eight-questions-and-expert-answers-on-whats-next-for-us-tariff-policy\/) to impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent.\n\nThat makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent, [according to](https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/02\/23\/business\/china-trump-supreme-court-tariff-analysis-inl-hnk) an estimate by Morgan Stanley.\n\nThing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer [announced](https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-25\/china-warns-us-it-will-respond-if-trade-probe-spurs-new-tariffs?embedded-checkout=true) that the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range.\n\nThe U.S. government was already [investigating](https:\/\/ustr.gov\/about\/policy-offices\/press-office\/press-releases\/2025\/october\/ustr-initiates-section-301-investigation-chinas-implementation-phase-one-agreement) whether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect, COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful.\n\n#### Revoking PNTR\nNow the Department of Commerce has announced that it is [considering](https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/usitc-probe-impact-revoking-permanent-normal-trade-ties-china-products-2026-02-26\/) revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly.\n\nChina has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.”\n\nBeijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to [“shift responsibility”](https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-says-it-has-met-us-trade-obligations-warns-against-more-tariffs-2026-02-25\/) or “provoke trouble.”\n\nThis is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce.\n\n#### Caving on China\nNow everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again.\n\nSome of the that we’ve seen recently:\n\n- Trump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires.\n- Trump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan.\n- Then on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address.\n\n[![](https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!W9uc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)](https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!W9uc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)\n\n###\n\n## Keep reading with a 7-day free trial\nSubscribe to Trade War to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.\n\n[Start trial](https:\/\/dexter.substack.com\/subscribe?simple=true&next=https%3A%2F%2Fdexter.substack.com%2Fp%2Ftrade-war-3ab&utm_source=paywall-free-trial&utm_medium=web&utm_content=188989604&coupon=05a7a745)\n\n[Already a paid subscriber? **Sign in**](https:\/\/substack.com\/sign-in?redirect=%2Fp%2Ftrade-war-3ab&for_pub=dexter&change_user=false)\n\n© 2026 Dexter Roberts · [Privacy](https:\/\/substack.com\/privacy) ∙ [Terms](https:\/\/substack.com\/tos) ∙ [Collection notice](https:\/\/substack.com\/ccpa#personal-data-collected)\n\n[Start your Substack](https:\/\/substack.com\/signup?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_content=footer)\n\n[Get the app](https:\/\/substack.com\/app\/app-store-redirect?utm_campaign=app-marketing&utm_content=web-footer-button)\n\n[Substack](https:\/\/substack.com\/) is the home for great culture\n\nThis site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please [turn on JavaScript](https:\/\/enable-javascript.com\/) or unblock scripts","attrs_readable_markdown":"Welcome to the 294th edition of Trade War.\n\nChina appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again.\n\nBeijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. \\$112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz.\n\n- “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers”\n- Central challenge for the US is not China bending the rules\n- Must-read newsletter: ***[Semafor China](https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/newsletter\/02\/24\/2026\/semafor-china-update-not-reset?utm_source=headernewsletterlink&utm_medium=china)*** from Andy Browne\n\nChina appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs.\n\nTrump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by [first threatening](https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/eight-questions-and-expert-answers-on-whats-next-for-us-tariff-policy\/) to impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent.\n\nThat makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent, [according to](https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/02\/23\/business\/china-trump-supreme-court-tariff-analysis-inl-hnk) an estimate by Morgan Stanley.\n\nThing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer [announced](https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-25\/china-warns-us-it-will-respond-if-trade-probe-spurs-new-tariffs?embedded-checkout=true) that the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range.\n\nThe U.S. government was already [investigating](https:\/\/ustr.gov\/about\/policy-offices\/press-office\/press-releases\/2025\/october\/ustr-initiates-section-301-investigation-chinas-implementation-phase-one-agreement) whether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect, COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful.\n\nNow the Department of Commerce has announced that it is [considering](https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/usitc-probe-impact-revoking-permanent-normal-trade-ties-china-products-2026-02-26\/) revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly.\n\nChina has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.”\n\nBeijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to [“shift responsibility”](https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-says-it-has-met-us-trade-obligations-warns-against-more-tariffs-2026-02-25\/) or “provoke trouble.”\n\nThis is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce.\n\nNow everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again.\n\nSome of the that we’ve seen recently:\n\n- Trump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires.\n- Trump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan.\n- Then on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address.\n\n[![](https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!W9uc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)](https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!W9uc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)","meta_canonical":null}

3. Robots.txt Check

Query:

Response:

4. Spam/Ban Check

Query:

Response:

5. Seen Status Check

ℹ️ Skipped - page is already crawled

📄

INDEXABLE

✅

CRAWLED

1 month ago

🤖

ROBOTS ALLOWED

Page Info Filters

Filter	Status	Condition	Details
HTTP status	PASS	`download_http_code = 200`	HTTP 200
Age cutoff	PASS	`download_stamp > now() - 6 MONTH`	1.5 months ago
History drop	PASS	`isNull(history_drop_reason)`	No drop reason
Spam/ban	PASS	`fh_dont_index != 1 AND ml_spam_score = 0`	ml_spam_score=0
Canonical	PASS	`meta_canonical IS NULL OR = '' OR = src_unparsed`	Not set

Page Details

Property	Value
URL	https://dexter.substack.com/p/trade-war-3ab
Last Crawled	2026-03-02 19:51:08 (1 month ago)
First Indexed	not set
HTTP Status Code	200
Meta Title	Trade War - by Dexter Roberts - Trade War
Meta Description	China appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. But USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%.
Meta Canonical	null
Boilerpipe Text	Welcome to the 294th edition of Trade War. China appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again. Beijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. $112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers” Central challenge for the US is not China bending the rules Must-read newsletter: Semafor China from Andy Browne China appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. Trump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by first threatening to impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent. That makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent, according to an estimate by Morgan Stanley. Thing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer announced that the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range. The U.S. government was already investigating whether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect, COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful. Now the Department of Commerce has announced that it is considering revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly. China has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.” Beijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to “shift responsibility” or “provoke trouble.” This is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce. Now everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again. Some of the that we’ve seen recently: Trump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires. Trump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan. Then on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address.
Markdown	# [Trade War](https://dexter.substack.com/) Subscribe Sign in # Trade War ### Newsletter 294 - Feb. 29, 2026 [Dexter Roberts](https://substack.com/@dexter) Mar 01, 2026 ∙ Paid 4 2 Share Trade War is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Welcome to the 294th edition of Trade War. China appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again. Beijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. \$112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz. #### Notable/In depth ~ - “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers” - Central challenge for the US is not China bending the rules - Must-read newsletter: *[Semafor China](https://www.semafor.com/newsletter/02/24/2026/semafor-china-update-not-reset?utm_source=headernewsletterlink&utm_medium=china)* from Andy Browne ### China wins with Court ruling against Trump tariffs China appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. Trump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by [first threatening](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/eight-questions-and-expert-answers-on-whats-next-for-us-tariff-policy/) to impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent. That makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent, [according to](https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/23/business/china-trump-supreme-court-tariff-analysis-inl-hnk) an estimate by Morgan Stanley. Thing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer [announced](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/china-warns-us-it-will-respond-if-trade-probe-spurs-new-tariffs?embedded-checkout=true) that the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range. The U.S. government was already [investigating](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/october/ustr-initiates-section-301-investigation-chinas-implementation-phase-one-agreement) whether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect, COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful. #### Revoking PNTR Now the Department of Commerce has announced that it is [considering](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/usitc-probe-impact-revoking-permanent-normal-trade-ties-china-products-2026-02-26/) revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly. China has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.” Beijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to [“shift responsibility”](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-has-met-us-trade-obligations-warns-against-more-tariffs-2026-02-25/) or “provoke trouble.” This is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce. #### Caving on China Now everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again. Some of the that we’ve seen recently: - Trump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires. - Trump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan. - Then on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address. [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9uc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9uc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png) ### ## Keep reading with a 7-day free trial Subscribe to Trade War to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. [Start trial](https://dexter.substack.com/subscribe?simple=true&next=https%3A%2F%2Fdexter.substack.com%2Fp%2Ftrade-war-3ab&utm_source=paywall-free-trial&utm_medium=web&utm_content=188989604&coupon=05a7a745) [Already a paid subscriber? 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Readable Markdown	Welcome to the 294th edition of Trade War. China appears a winner with Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. USTR chief Jamieson Greer says levies on China to stay between 35% and 50%. And Washington says it is considering revoking Permanent Normal Trading status, a move that could see tariffs on China rise again. Beijing threatens to take action against any new US tariffs. \$112 billion gap between American and Chinese export figures suggests massive tariff dodging. And Xi Jinping declares China and Germany should defend “free trade,” in Beijing meeting with the Chancellor Friedrich Merz. - “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies to defend their own producers” - Central challenge for the US is not China bending the rules - Must-read newsletter: *[Semafor China](https://www.semafor.com/newsletter/02/24/2026/semafor-china-update-not-reset?utm_source=headernewsletterlink&utm_medium=china)* from Andy Browne China appears to be a winner following the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. Trump has responded to the ruling against his broad emergency tariffs by [first threatening](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/eight-questions-and-expert-answers-on-whats-next-for-us-tariff-policy/) to impose a new flat 10 percent tariff, then raising it to 15 percent, before reverting back to 10 percent. That makes China, at least for now, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. Supreme Court decision. Don’t forget, last year Trump’s tariffs on China reached as high as 145 percent. Before the latest Supreme Court ruling, the average weighted tariffs on China were at 32 percent and now they are down to 24 percent, [according to](https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/23/business/china-trump-supreme-court-tariff-analysis-inl-hnk) an estimate by Morgan Stanley. Thing could quickly change, however. On Wednesday, USTR Jamieson Greer [announced](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/china-warns-us-it-will-respond-if-trade-probe-spurs-new-tariffs?embedded-checkout=true) that the tariffs on China should remain in the 35 to 50 percent range. The U.S. government was already [investigating](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/october/ustr-initiates-section-301-investigation-chinas-implementation-phase-one-agreement) whether China lived up to its commitments in the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement, signed during Trump I. Shortly after it came into effect, COVID hit. Not surprisingly, that affected China’s promised purchases of U.S. exports and the agreement was widely viewed as unsuccessful. Now the Department of Commerce has announced that it is [considering](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/usitc-probe-impact-revoking-permanent-normal-trade-ties-china-products-2026-02-26/) revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trading Status, a move that would allow tariffs to go up significantly. China has responded in very strong terms, with a Commerce Ministry spokesperson warning that if the U.S. imposes any new tariffs, Beijing will take “all necessary measures to resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests.” Beijing also said it hoped the U.S. would not try to [“shift responsibility”](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-has-met-us-trade-obligations-warns-against-more-tariffs-2026-02-25/) or “provoke trouble.” This is all happening, of course, just weeks before Trump heads to Beijing, where he is scheduled to arrive on March 31st. It’s a state visit, which will see him and Xi Jinping sitting down together, a meeting that many have predicted might lead to an extended tariff truce. Now everything is a little bit more up in the air with both sides trading threats. My prediction: Trump will do what he’s been doing of late, and that is to cave on China again. Some of the that we’ve seen recently: - Trump suggested that he will dial back technology restrictions to allow China more access to the advanced technology that it desires. - Trump announced that he was consulting with Xi Jinping on weapons sales to Taiwan. That’s a bizarre thing to say, and if true, deeply disturbing to the very delicate relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan. - Then on Tuesday night, during the State of the Union address, Trump didn’t mention China once. That’s the first time in two decades that a U.S. president has not mentioned China in the annual address. [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9uc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9uc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F555b5e3c-fe75-4f89-ace9-611556e8991a_1706x1004.png)
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